OK – I am obviously getting a LOT of questions and seeing a lot of confused statements from people that don’t understand how the process works. Some people are looking at the last couple of VBs and suggestion the numbers will end at 40000 – which is RUBBISH.
So – let me try to explain a little on a simple way to understand what numbers are safe for AF region.
The June VB announced 34150 as the cutoff for June. I have explained before that the pace that KCC are trying to achieve is around 2000 per month. We ended March on ~6800 (call that 7000), so they expect to issue 2000 in April, May and June from the CNs up to 34150. Make sense? OK – so let us assume the first 34150 yields 13000 visas. Sounds simplistic – but actually – that is more or less right.
The target for AF region is up to 22000 visas maximum. Some will be taken by AoS cases, so we probably have at least 6000 to 6500 for case numbers above 34150. It could be more, but I expect more issuances from the first 34000 over time, so I would rather be conservative. Ok – keep that number for a minute.
We know that there are around 350 cases per 1000 case numbers above 34000 as I explained earlier in the year here. Each case contains derivatives and we could use an average number of around 1.6 people per case.
We also can see some of the response rate as I explained in this post. That showed a response rate of around 50% – but we know that number is growing (hidden by the DS260 backlog). I expect that response rate to grow to at least 60%, perhaps 65%.
Not every case gets approved at interview – some countries (such as Ghana) are below 50% approval, whilst others such as Egypt are around 80% – but 65% is a reasonable average and is consistent with previous years.
With these assumptions we can see how many more case numbers are needed to fill the remaining visas. These are ASSUMPTIONS to paint the picture – very simplistic – but this should explain why I say AF under 60000 can feel confident and numbers above that start to get some risk.
OK – 350 cases at 65% response rate (my maximum assumption) = 228 cases per thousand that will respond.
Of those that respond 65% will be approved = 148 (let’s call that 150).
150 cases at 1.6 people per case = 240 visas per 1000 case numbers (above 34150). That is about the highest number we would see because I used a pessimistic response rate. It could be 220 or perhaps even 200 – but for now – let us use the 240.
Let us say there are 6000 visas left – 6000/240 = 25. That means KCC would need 25,000 case numbers OVER 34150 to yield the remaining 6000 visas issued. that is 59150.
Now, if the response rate is only 60% (which is likely) and we get 220 visas per thousand, and let us assume we have ~6500 left that would mean almost 30k case numbers.
So – I think AF numbers up to 60000 can think of themselves as “safe”. Numbers from 60000 to 70000 have some risk (70000 needs 180 visas per 1000 which is a response rate of 50%), and numbers above 70000 start getting very risky.
As ever, my intention is to inform, not to stress people. I wish everyone could get a visa – so best of luck to all!
By the way, people have asked how they can show support for what I do – so please read this if you would like to help me pay for a treehouse…. 🙂
Africa – estimate example
April 15, 2015 at 15:06
Thanks for your accurate analysis. The first thing i saw when visa bulletin published is your estimate number. You were righg.
April 15, 2015 at 23:37
Thanks!
April 15, 2015 at 15:11
Thanx mr. BritSimon.
Are you assume the DS260 backlog finished ?
April 15, 2015 at 23:39
I believe it is tailing off. It won’t be a sudden halt, but we should see a reduction. AF may be affected for another month, however – I will be able to say more once I see the 2NLs
April 15, 2015 at 15:11
thank you the number of 60,000, they are not at risk? and other 60000-70000?
April 15, 2015 at 23:40
As the article says, 60000 – 70000 has “some” risk – and 60001 is less risky than 69999 (obviously).
April 15, 2015 at 15:12
Thank you very much.well done.
April 15, 2015 at 23:40
Glad it helps
April 15, 2015 at 15:13
Could an estimate analysis be applied to SA? (I know SA is an unknown as of right now, but theoretically speaking, if estimates were applied…what would it look like?)
April 15, 2015 at 23:42
SA is too small to be statistically “safe” in the same way as the larger regions, so you can sort of get there, but the range of uncertainty is too large to be useful.
April 15, 2015 at 15:15
Makes sense, Brit!
Lots of people are waiting for similar content..
Eyes on the response rate 😎 .. low please..
April 15, 2015 at 23:42
Hehehe – we shall see how it has grown in once the 2NLs go out.
April 15, 2015 at 15:36
what about asia?
April 15, 2015 at 15:39
Are you mean in other word , the remaining visas are 6500 for case numbers above 34150, perhaps response rate 65% , then 6500 × 100 ÷ 65 = 10000 & perhaps approval rate 65% , then 10000 × 100 ÷ 65 = 15384 & derivatives average number 1.6 people per case. Then 15384 ÷ 1.6 = 9615 cases . The case 34150 actually is 21750 without holes , then 21750 + 9615 cases = 31365 , this equal the case 62113 ( with holes ) .this means < 62113 can feel confident .
As you said ……………..
April 15, 2015 at 16:57
the remaining visas are 6500 for case numbers above 34150, perhaps response rate 65% , then 6500 × 100 ÷ 65 = 10000 & perhaps approval rate 65% , then 10000 × 100 ÷ 65 = 15384 & derivatives average number 1.6 people per case. Then 15384 ÷ 1.6 = 9615 cases . The case 34150 actually is 21750 without holes , then 21750 + 9615 cases = 31365 , this equal the case 62113 ( with holes ) .this means < 62113 can feel confident
perhaps response rate 65% (which is likely)
6500 × 100 ÷ 60 = 10833
perhaps approval rate 65%
10833 × 100 ÷ 65 = 16666
derivatives average number 1.6 people per case
16666 ÷1.6 = 10416
The case 34150 actually is 21750 without holes
21750 + 10416 = 32166 , this equal the case 64815
perhaps response rate 50%
6500 × 100 ÷ 50 = 13000
perhaps approval rate 65%
13000 × 100 ÷ 65 = 20000
derivatives average number 1.6 people per case
20000 ÷1.6 = 12500
The case 34150 actually is 21750 without holes
21750 + 12500 = 34250 , this equal the case 71909
This mean cut off may reach 71909
April 15, 2015 at 23:57
Yes that works too!
April 15, 2015 at 15:51
hi sir ,when i read this noW i’m feeling good , so the blockage of ds260 influence in vb , so we can say cn <50000 are 100% safe and have chance to passe interview ?
thank you sir
my cn is 47xxx
April 16, 2015 at 00:52
Yes safe – read this
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
April 15, 2015 at 16:16
Simon, as per you post https://britsimonsays.com/the-regional-quota-mystery-solved/
Africa will get 20.5 thousand visas. Has something changed in your estimate?
April 15, 2015 at 16:21
Ok oh thanks ,so do u say theyl be a big jump to 40k next bulletin?
April 16, 2015 at 17:38
How safe 51k
April 16, 2015 at 19:51
Is 51 less than 60?
April 15, 2015 at 16:22
we hope so
April 15, 2015 at 18:08
I agree with you on the Numbers, but I have a feeling that this year they trying to minimize the amount of visas given to Africa.
April 15, 2015 at 18:39
I’m AF 70***,just lost some hope
April 15, 2015 at 23:59
I’m sorry – I don’t mean to steal your dreams, but I feel people should have the chance to understand what is happening since KCC don’t give any information….
Best of luck!
April 15, 2015 at 19:23
Are Af visaS 20000 or 22000 ?
April 16, 2015 at 00:00
22000 IF KCC allow progress up to 52500 (as they did last year). Then out of that there will be some AoS cases (perhaps 1000).
April 16, 2015 at 06:04
Hi Simon,
Do 50770 visas published in the last CEAC 2014 (and presented in https://britsimonsays.com/the-regional-quota-mystery-solved/) including or excluding AOS visas?
If you say 52500 visas were issued last year then CEAC 2014 data should be excluding AOS visas I guess? If so, AOS visas amounted to 1730 (52500-50770)?
VB progress, anyway, presents both nonAOS and AOS cases. Right?
Also do you mean that KCC may partly compensate AF’s quota reduction due to Nigeria’s ineligibility by issuing more than 50,000 visas and mostly allocating them to AF?
April 16, 2015 at 14:04
The 50770 did not include aos which were around 5% more.
The Nigeria comment is complex to explain but use the search feature on the top right of the page.
April 16, 2015 at 01:26
AF602XX can you tell me please my chance to get an interview in % ? sorry for my bad english, thank you in advance.
April 16, 2015 at 03:17
Close to 100%
April 16, 2015 at 05:51
So britsimon do we expect a big jump in July to 40k or 50k???? Again thanks for this info
April 16, 2015 at 14:02
40 something.
April 16, 2015 at 14:55
Ok oh britsimon,me just anxious,well thanks for your efforts
June 5, 2015 at 09:53
u mean last visa bulletin will be 40000???
April 16, 2015 at 07:53
Hi my CN is AF73 wen can i expect my interview
April 16, 2015 at 14:06
Well IF you get an interview it would be in September.
April 16, 2015 at 09:07
Hi Bghit. thank you for everything you do for us I’m grateful and I thank you. If I understand your logic and analysis AF624XX is a risk number ???
April 16, 2015 at 14:06
Yes.
April 16, 2015 at 09:45
Thank you Brit for your detailed analysis, does that take into consideration the cn already current?
April 16, 2015 at 14:09
Yes.
April 16, 2015 at 10:39
thank u so much for this article u make me happy again 🙂
April 16, 2015 at 10:57
Do you think that my case AF462XX has a chance to get to the interview before the deadline for interviews in September ?
April 16, 2015 at 14:11
Did you read the article above – your answer is there!
April 16, 2015 at 11:06
Well said Brit. Your analysis once again give us a lot of hope. Now, I understand the maths behind DV visas and cutt off number.
April 16, 2015 at 14:12
Excellent!
April 16, 2015 at 11:43
hy simon wht’s ur opinion about the AF less 73000 ,? and i will give you other suppose …..what is ur opinion about the rest month will continue by 2OOO for every 2 months and will be current in the last month ?
April 16, 2015 at 14:14
Like I said in the above post, that number has risk and no case can be interviewed after September.
April 16, 2015 at 13:03
If response rate is say 70%, how safe is af58xxx.
April 16, 2015 at 14:15
Starts getting risky but 70% response is a big jump from the reality.
April 16, 2015 at 15:26
my cn is 44k acording to analysis interview will be in july or august ?
April 16, 2015 at 15:32
af43***
April 16, 2015 at 16:50
Congratulations – safe!
April 16, 2015 at 16:45
Borderline between July and August interview – but at least you know you are safe…
April 16, 2015 at 16:40
Thank you very much Mr.Simon.
April 16, 2015 at 17:02
britsimon what do you say about my Cn 42xxx
April 16, 2015 at 19:47
Is that not clear from the article above???
April 16, 2015 at 17:05
Hello Brit
Is it possible that the surprise occur. Also in 2003, 2004 and 2005
Does not exceed 49350 or 34450 or 46700
April 16, 2015 at 19:35
Hello Brit
Is it possible that the surprise occur. Also in 2003, 2004 and 2005
Does not exceed 49350 or 34450 or 46700
April 16, 2015 at 19:50
There is no point in comparing to DV years that old – each year is different, the numbering of cases is different, the quota is different and so on. Yes surprises can occur – but no one can explain to me how 6500 visas could be used by 3500 cases where only 2000 of those will respond. The article shows that it is IMPOSSIBLE to allocate all the visas by 46700 or 49350.
April 16, 2015 at 20:30
Hello brit figure *** 39 when the date of the interview
April 16, 2015 at 20:47
I need the region and the date you submitted the DS260
April 16, 2015 at 21:53
Yes sorry AF39***
April 16, 2015 at 22:00
Filed DS260 in jully 2014 thanks
April 17, 2015 at 00:30
July most likely
April 16, 2015 at 22:01
Hello BritSimon,
How many visas have already allocated to AF until today?!
Thank you so so much
April 17, 2015 at 00:26
7761
April 17, 2015 at 06:02
Is that a gud number?
April 17, 2015 at 10:09
Thank you again
April 17, 2015 at 09:36
Hi Brit, I just wonna know if there are people who have submitted their DS 260 from 01 april 2015.
Can we Know how many people from CN AF 34150 and above have already sumitted their DS 260.
April 17, 2015 at 20:02
In a couple of weeks we will know – after the 2NLs
April 17, 2015 at 10:42
Dear Brit, again thank you for analysis and congratulations for good predictions.
Do you still think the final cut for Africa will be around 68,000 to 74,000 or less, given the evolution of the VB.
Interested in your answer
Thank you for everything
April 17, 2015 at 14:01
Ok, finally I have a reasonable (read limited) understanding of some of your estimates after repeatedly reading your posts.
Some questions/ (I’m biased as I have a number of AF 70 5xx).
So, are the following plays on the nos you used in the eg above reasonable?
To tweak the estimates (making the most conservative estimates that still allow my number in – therefore less conservative than your estimates):
– At ~6800 to March; thats ~1140 visas per month (granted the backlog to blame), but instead assuming 2000/month for apr-jun, isnt a 60% increase to 1800/month still reasonable?
That means, if AoS takes 2700 of the 22000 for Africa (I don’t know what AoS is btw – but ill put effort into finding out): 22000 – [6800 + 3*1800 + 2200] = 7600 left for last 3 months of DV 2015..
Then, looking at your graph for africa density in your post on dv2015 analysis, it looks like I can
lower the density (I don’t have the numbers, just took my ruler to your graph) and lower your estimate from 350 to 335 per 1000 (taking into account the drop after 51000.
Lastly (I kept approval rate the same, no point changing that, as nothing has indicated a change likely, same with 1.6 visas per applicant), I lowered your response rate from the current 50% to 60%
instead of the 65% you chose.
This gives an additional 36350Cns – which would put my no in with a (minimal) chance.
I know this is academic, and I’ll only know once July bulletin released, but I just would appreciate
your opinion on my estimates that I chose that deviate from yours? (As I have zero insight/ feel for this, but like everyone, desperately want this green card).
Thanks Simon,
or rather, as it seems is becoming the norm:
“Thank you brit” 😉
April 17, 2015 at 20:18
Your number per month (1140) is the wrong way to calculate since the pace is not linear throughout the year. They will issue ~2000 per month for AF from now on.
I think the most likely thing to come to your rescue is a lower response rate. THe rate for AF as a whole at the moment is around 40%. THat rate is going to be higher in higher ranges as I have explained bofore. However, whilst I use 60% in my example, the numbers change at 55%. So – a very low response rate would see you safe. Ultimately we can twist the numbers to what gives us comfort – BUT the most telling thing is watching the numbers. I have just published the new CEAC data and in a week or two I will publish more data with 2NLs which will allow me to redo estimates for next month. Let’s talk again then….
April 28, 2015 at 12:18
Hi,
After seeing your June predictions, I’m not smart enough to figure out how you did it even though you explain it, so I can’t to extrapolate to September (I guess, that is why they are June predictions). What I mean is that I don’t get a feel for the response rate (as what you say is what may come to my rescue in your reply above) AF70xxx. So, my question: Now that you have done predictions for June, is the likely hood of AF 70 5xx getting an interview:
a.)more likely/
b)less likely/
c.)just as uncertain to you as before you made the June predictions?
This is after all, analysis of past data to predict future trends, and doesn’t guarantee anything, but
just as you make the predictions, I, like most people here, are looking (gratefully) to you to
help unpack the uncertainty and classify it in terms of likelihood. (eg 68k and 78k are neither guaranteed but theres more likelihood for 68k – I just want to know if that likelihood has changed since before you got the data to make the June predictions. )
April 28, 2015 at 14:21
The data is trending toward a lower ending. So – as each month goes by I would say the chances for AF70XXX is less likely.
April 17, 2015 at 15:10
My number is 774xxm but i know i will be called up for interview. Cos is the end that matters and not the predictions since nobody is God Almighty
April 17, 2015 at 20:23
OK good luck!
April 17, 2015 at 15:15
Thanks for the information. But I think we all missing one crucial number. Not all ready cases continue with the process. DV 2014 had 38,058 CN including family with 19,004 issued and 12,508 were ready and transferred. That means, they missed their interviews, even though, they had returned their forms and were current. Does anyone have the cancellations for 2015? This is a game changer.
I think many people will return their forms cos its online and free. But once they learn about the dv costs and coupled with other life circumstances they change their minds.
April 17, 2015 at 20:24
That is included in the success rate already.
April 17, 2015 at 15:23
Simon is doing a good job fine but lets all not forget that our destiny lies in thew Hands of God . Simon is predicting based on facts but one never know the future and that is why it is said the future is unknown so let all the high CNs realise that God already knows the future and God works in a MIRACULOUS WAY. I know i will be called up
April 17, 2015 at 20:26
Well it is fine to have faith – and many readers believe in God, some Allah, and some, no God at all. In reality, there is no preference based on faith, so all people of all faiths have the same chance….
April 17, 2015 at 16:16
BriSimon
Really appreciate what you do.
am not going to ask you is my CN 70XXX is safe or not.
but my question is if June visa bulletin appear can you accurately show us percentage of my 70XXX chance.
Best Regard.
April 17, 2015 at 20:27
THe only time you will be certain of that number is mid July when you see the last VB. Best of luck!
April 17, 2015 at 18:12
hi how are you BritSimon? and CN AF 54XXX have chance
April 17, 2015 at 20:28
Assuming 54 is still less than 60 these days – then YES!!
April 17, 2015 at 19:08
hi b.simon!!!
please could you tell me if for the 03 remaining VB we could expect a progression above 10.000???
April 17, 2015 at 20:30
Yes that is what I expect.
April 18, 2015 at 18:59
thank you for what you’re doing for us…i hope my number 610xx will be current!!!
April 19, 2015 at 02:43
That number has a very good chance…
April 20, 2015 at 10:28
Hi Brit ,
619XX can always hoped? or should it be pessimistic.
thank you
April 20, 2015 at 14:48
Be hopeful you have a good chance.
April 21, 2015 at 17:49
thanks Mr brit.
April 17, 2015 at 20:32
Sometimes I fear my cn oo,I think il be in August or September and it worries me ,britismon I really am getting nervous of AF 4046*, what do u think
April 17, 2015 at 20:35
STOP WORRYING.
April 17, 2015 at 20:39
Ok ok my britsimon,thanks for all the information n comfort too ,I pray I get current next visa bulletin,so I can stop stressing my self up lots
April 17, 2015 at 20:44
You’ll be fine. I’m thinking you will be happy next month, but I am certain that if you somehow miss that you cannot be delayed more than one extra month!
April 17, 2015 at 21:13
I pray it’s next month because for real one more month won’t be easy,thanks for the encouragement though ,am great full for sure
April 18, 2015 at 17:18
my cn is 59xxx i wanna know what are my chances
thanx
April 19, 2015 at 02:42
In the article above I said numbers under 60000 can consider themselves safe. 59XXX is under 60000. So….
April 20, 2015 at 14:40
What worries me Brit is actually the 7090 ready, do you think that will change the mathematics?
April 20, 2015 at 14:52
At any given point the CEAC data will show lots of ready cases that are future interviews. That is just part of the process. For example, the file includes ready cases up to 32700 – MAY interviews.
April 25, 2015 at 23:13
Hi brit thanks for all. Do you think AF 71xxx can have an anterview?
April 26, 2015 at 01:41
It is very risky.
April 20, 2015 at 19:03
Brit. Thanks a lot for the good job one thing I was waiting to hear was the density effect on higher case number which may be good for high cases. Any way, I am fully aware that things have not change to the extent that 528xx to be greater than 600xxx ( as of this moment, 52 is still less than 60) so I know that my case will get an interview. Thanks
April 20, 2015 at 22:27
Good job on your math! – Yes 52 is less than 60! 🙂
April 20, 2015 at 20:49
thanks
April 21, 2015 at 09:56
plz my cn is africa 57ooo how much in % safe plz
April 21, 2015 at 14:45
Is 57000 below 60000?
April 21, 2015 at 18:27
i want to know how much in % is safe we can 100% safe???
April 21, 2015 at 19:03
Yes 100%
April 21, 2015 at 19:16
thank u so much 🙂
April 21, 2015 at 18:25
yes af57000 how much% safe???
April 22, 2015 at 07:55
I am a little confused here. So basically the dv winners are not in the same boat as those outside? Should I just not wait until my CN (which is AF47XXX) is available on the VB before sending my application (I-485) to USCIS???
Thank you very much
April 22, 2015 at 13:41
The early filing policy says you can file once you see your case announced on the VB. That gives you about 6 or 7 weeks extra time – and you should take advantage of it.
April 22, 2015 at 15:03
So if I understand in about 6 or 7 weeks my case should be announced which give me the permission to file now right?
And do you have the link for that “early policy” please? I could print it a attached so they don’t send me back my application (I sent it in October 2014 but it was too early and they sent it back to me)
April 22, 2015 at 16:36
No – you cannot file YET. The visa bulletin gives advanced notice of when case numbers will go current. The “May” bulletin was published just a week ago and covers current numbers for June. The AF number is 34150. So – for AoS early filing means that people with case numbers under 34150 could have filed their I485 as soon as that VB was published – hence getting 6 to 7 weeks advantage.
So you have to wait until the VB for AF exceeds your number AF47XXX. Once it does you can submit your file and you should include the memo that allows early filing in that package that you send to the lockbox. The memo is shown here:-
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2013/August/DV-Related%20I-485%20Applications%20.pdf