OK – after the latest bulletin, I am getting inundated with people posting the same question – what about my number – am I safe. So – perhaps I can explain how I am answering those questions at this point – with the HOPE that people will read this and not keep asking the same question when their number is 100 more or less than the previous question asked.
Like all of you, I have only just seen the latest VB in the last couple of days. My guesstimates were pretty accurate and people seem to be realizing that the process is understandable now that we have so much data. However, within minutes of that being released, people were asking me for my final cutoff predictions. I actually don’t know if I will release a final prediction or not (explanation below), but in any case, as I have explained before I need to see the 2NL data to really understand what went on, and where we stand for the next VB.
However, I am answering a lot of these questions based on my gut feeling. So – what does my “gut” tell me.
AF region is under the quota at the moment because too many cases are failing to show for the interviews – they are “no show” cases. So – in order to make the quota, KCC have to accelerate a bit. AF region had a really good VB – increasing to 250 more than the highest number I guessed. As I have explained, A number at the high end of my range would tell me that KCC have noticed the “no show” issue and are trying to address it with a busy interview month. The increase from 36500 to 44250 included 2889 cases – of which at least half would have responded – so that is around 1500 interviews – PLUS any from the backlog. So – they will probably schedule over 2000 interviews for AF region – more than usual. With that number of interviews they will issue 2500 to 3000 visas in the month of August. The backlog should have reduced somewhat, but will not completely disappear even up to the last VB.
Now. What can they do in September. Well I think they can do even more in September. The backlog should take less interviews, Egypt will be exhausted and KCC don’t have to allow for September AP cases still having a chance in following months (as they do in every other month. So – if they have revealed 2889 new cases this month – they should be able to do a bit better than that in September as a minimum. So – let’s say, they release 3679 new case numbers (remember only half will have responded). That would take us to 55,000 – and that should yield at least 2000 interviews (4500 people). That would be a big month, but very possible. So – I feel that my earlier guess that 55000 and below is safe is still the case.
Could it go higher? Well to get to 60000 that means revealing 5188 cases (2500/3000) interviews. THat is possible, but pretty optimistic. To get to 65000 means 6676 new cases (at least 3500 interviews – 8000 people). VERY optimistic.
So – I can see 55000 to 60000 as being the approximate range. 60000 to 65000 seems to be a lesser chance, and above 65000 is not likely at all. So – under 55000 I am answering “safe” and 55/60 gets “some chance” whilst 60/65 gets risky, but wait and see. Above 65000, people really need to be preparing themselves for the inevitable.
In reality ALL should “wait and see” – it isn’t over until the end.
For Asia region, Nepal will hit the 7%. There is no doubt. That will happen either with the number we already have (7150) or perhaps a small increase in September. Small. I don’t see the number going beyond 7600 – and could imagine 7150 even being enough. For the rest of Asia, as I have explained many times, the real decider is Iranian AP cases. If Iranian AP cases resolve faster than last year, Iran could take more than last year. If they take 2500/2700 we might see the final number go to 11XXX or 12XXX. However, at 3000 for Iran, ROA is probably looking at risk from 10000 onward.
So – if you ask about your AS number, I feel like anything under 10000 is pretty safe, and after 10000 gets into “wait and see” range. It is just too unknown to be clearer than that.
For EU – there was a good jump this month – 1510 case numbers. Now for EU, the issue is more about final quota being hit – because EU are not in danger of undershooting like AF region. Given where we stand it looks like EU ends June on 13k visas issued . 13k seems a given – perhaps more (13200/13300).
Then at current pace it could add 2000 to 2300 per month in July and August (4500 between the two let’s say). That is easily possible from the VB numbers released. We could be sitting on 17.5 to 18 at the end of August. So – add in some September issuances based on backlog cases and AP clearing. That could easily yield 1000. So – we would have 18.5 to 19. Plus AoS cases (processed in the USA, not shown in CEAC).
So – if those numbers are correct, EU don’t need much increase in September at all – maybe even no increase (like last year) . For this reason, anyone not already current in EU gets a “wait and see” response.
For OC – I still hope they can get something starting with 14.
SA is a bit more of an unknown – I hope they can get to 15XX or perhaps even 16XX.
I hope that helps explain my answers.
Now, about the final accurate predictions. I don’t know that I will predict the final numbers as I have been. As you can read above, there is a lot of uncertainty – a lot of unknowns, and, particularly for AF and AS, the calculation I normally use might not apply. So – I will try and update these thoughts over the next few weeks and I will post information once I see the 2NL, but don’t hold your breath for the final VB prediction….
Good luck to all those still waiting. For those that get into the final batch, there will be joy. For those that miss out, there will be other opportunities. After all this time you each have a HUGE emotional investment in this crazy lottery – but anyone who read the original “you have been selected” letter should have known they were not guaranteed to get the Green Card. Let us at least hope that they give out as many as possible…