OK – after the latest bulletin, I am getting inundated with people posting the same question – what about my number – am I safe. So – perhaps I can explain how I am answering those questions at this point – with the HOPE that people will read this and not keep asking the same question when their number is 100 more or less than the previous question asked.
Like all of you, I have only just seen the latest VB in the last couple of days. My guesstimates were pretty accurate and people seem to be realizing that the process is understandable now that we have so much data. However, within minutes of that being released, people were asking me for my final cutoff predictions. I actually don’t know if I will release a final prediction or not (explanation below), but in any case, as I have explained before I need to see the 2NL data to really understand what went on, and where we stand for the next VB.
However, I am answering a lot of these questions based on my gut feeling. So – what does my “gut” tell me.
AF region is under the quota at the moment because too many cases are failing to show for the interviews – they are “no show” cases. So – in order to make the quota, KCC have to accelerate a bit. AF region had a really good VB – increasing to 250 more than the highest number I guessed. As I have explained, A number at the high end of my range would tell me that KCC have noticed the “no show” issue and are trying to address it with a busy interview month. The increase from 36500 to 44250 included 2889 cases – of which at least half would have responded – so that is around 1500 interviews – PLUS any from the backlog. So – they will probably schedule over 2000 interviews for AF region – more than usual. With that number of interviews they will issue 2500 to 3000 visas in the month of August. The backlog should have reduced somewhat, but will not completely disappear even up to the last VB.
Now. What can they do in September. Well I think they can do even more in September. The backlog should take less interviews, Egypt will be exhausted and KCC don’t have to allow for September AP cases still having a chance in following months (as they do in every other month. So – if they have revealed 2889 new cases this month – they should be able to do a bit better than that in September as a minimum. So – let’s say, they release 3679 new case numbers (remember only half will have responded). That would take us to 55,000 – and that should yield at least 2000 interviews (4500 people). That would be a big month, but very possible. So – I feel that my earlier guess that 55000 and below is safe is still the case.
Could it go higher? Well to get to 60000 that means revealing 5188 cases (2500/3000) interviews. THat is possible, but pretty optimistic. To get to 65000 means 6676 new cases (at least 3500 interviews – 8000 people). VERY optimistic.
So – I can see 55000 to 60000 as being the approximate range. 60000 to 65000 seems to be a lesser chance, and above 65000 is not likely at all. So – under 55000 I am answering “safe” and 55/60 gets “some chance” whilst 60/65 gets risky, but wait and see. Above 65000, people really need to be preparing themselves for the inevitable.
In reality ALL should “wait and see” – it isn’t over until the end.
For Asia region, Nepal will hit the 7%. There is no doubt. That will happen either with the number we already have (7150) or perhaps a small increase in September. Small. I don’t see the number going beyond 7600 – and could imagine 7150 even being enough. For the rest of Asia, as I have explained many times, the real decider is Iranian AP cases. If Iranian AP cases resolve faster than last year, Iran could take more than last year. If they take 2500/2700 we might see the final number go to 11XXX or 12XXX. However, at 3000 for Iran, ROA is probably looking at risk from 10000 onward.
So – if you ask about your AS number, I feel like anything under 10000 is pretty safe, and after 10000 gets into “wait and see” range. It is just too unknown to be clearer than that.
For EU – there was a good jump this month – 1510 case numbers. Now for EU, the issue is more about final quota being hit – because EU are not in danger of undershooting like AF region. Given where we stand it looks like EU ends June on 13k visas issued . 13k seems a given – perhaps more (13200/13300).
Then at current pace it could add 2000 to 2300 per month in July and August (4500 between the two let’s say). That is easily possible from the VB numbers released. We could be sitting on 17.5 to 18 at the end of August. So – add in some September issuances based on backlog cases and AP clearing. That could easily yield 1000. So – we would have 18.5 to 19. Plus AoS cases (processed in the USA, not shown in CEAC).
So – if those numbers are correct, EU don’t need much increase in September at all – maybe even no increase (like last year) . For this reason, anyone not already current in EU gets a “wait and see” response.
For OC – I still hope they can get something starting with 14.
SA is a bit more of an unknown – I hope they can get to 15XX or perhaps even 16XX.
I hope that helps explain my answers.
Now, about the final accurate predictions. I don’t know that I will predict the final numbers as I have been. As you can read above, there is a lot of uncertainty – a lot of unknowns, and, particularly for AF and AS, the calculation I normally use might not apply. So – I will try and update these thoughts over the next few weeks and I will post information once I see the 2NL, but don’t hold your breath for the final VB prediction….
Good luck to all those still waiting. For those that get into the final batch, there will be joy. For those that miss out, there will be other opportunities. After all this time you each have a HUGE emotional investment in this crazy lottery – but anyone who read the original “you have been selected” letter should have known they were not guaranteed to get the Green Card. Let us at least hope that they give out as many as possible…
June 13, 2015 at 10:37
Hi Britsimon
Sorry I posted Arabic befor.
OK this Question????
last case number there are about 17000 case numbers and we have 17,000 At NVC. , Ready , refused and AP and the number of visas remaining very big until the date 29/5 . as you know The rate of response in Africa not well . So that I don’t think KCC will be lost a lot of visas without giving to anyone .and I think found inside this number 17,000 some case. nvc &ready&AP &Rrfused. well be decrease the 17,000 maybe 50%
That is true?????
June 13, 2015 at 16:30
Sorry – I don’t understand your point or question.
June 13, 2015 at 11:31
Please, haw many visas have togo taken up today
June 13, 2015 at 16:27
You can check the CEAC data for that. However, there is no country quota – so the question is irrelevant.
June 13, 2015 at 11:36
hi brit…thanks for your lightening!
i’m just reading your post and i’m afarid about my case which is 610XX(riskier range)…
1-i would like to know if the “no show” could make you updating your prediction after 2nd lettre released???
2-have you taken into account all the “no case” in your guesstimate???
thanks once more for your reply..
June 13, 2015 at 16:26
The point is that KCC seem to have taken into account the no shows – and yes once I see the 2NLs I will know if that is a correct assumption (if my guess is correct, we will see they setup more interviews than usual).
My prediction ranges above take that into account – hence the large range of uncertainty.
June 13, 2015 at 12:17
hi brit
i have one question pleas my case no will be current in September i need to change the locution of my interview should i change before 2nl or after
thank you
rafik
June 13, 2015 at 16:22
Before 2NL – and be quick!! You must do that in the next week or you will mess up your case.
June 13, 2015 at 13:11
Thanks for the post. I guess I have to wait and see.
June 13, 2015 at 15:06
Thank ü Mr. Brit you are thé best
June 13, 2015 at 15:42
Hi Brit, i am from Africa/Morocco, and my case number is 78xxx, is there any chance that the KCC announce “current” in the next VB?
June 13, 2015 at 16:11
No there is no chance of current, and I think there is no chance to reach your number. I’m sorry.
June 13, 2015 at 16:30
Hi what is Africa’s response rate so far?
do you think it will end at 60% or higher?
I noticed that Egypt and Ethiopia have 80% response rates and success rates does this inflate the rates?
last year aos issued was about 850 according to the table 2014 visa issuances. Hence might be about 1000 this year.
finally what is the success rate for Africa.
June 13, 2015 at 17:27
All that data is available from the CEAC data. It sounds like you are trying to get your own calculations, so to understand it well – you should work with the file yourself. Do that and you will be much better placed to calculate the numbers.
A couple of points. The response rate varies by country – so that impacts the overall response rate. Since the big countries are almost out (Ghana, Egypt, Ethiopia) you need to consider the response rate at the current case number range – not the overall rate.
June 13, 2015 at 16:53
Please brit, geve me the web site of CEAC
June 13, 2015 at 17:20
https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx
June 13, 2015 at 17:04
Hi mr Brit. I had my Advance Level (high school diploma) in 2014 but the examination board in my country has not yet printed the original certificates. The only proof that i have with me is my result slip. Can this affect my interview? I am from Cameroon. Secondly, i submitted my DS-260 in october 2014 but ask for a reopened and then resubmitted in march 2015. My question is do kcc restart processing or they simply continue from october. Thanks
June 13, 2015 at 17:21
Education should be ok.
The DS260 will have been completed by now – they just continue and reprocess where needed.
June 13, 2015 at 18:04
Thanks alot
June 13, 2015 at 17:45
Hi mr Brit,i am from Europe/France, and my case number is 411xx, is there any chance that the KCC announce my case number in the next VB in Europe? thanks you
June 13, 2015 at 18:32
To be honest – I don’t know. To me, it appears they don’t need many more case numbers to be full. So – we can only wait and see what happens…
June 13, 2015 at 19:13
hi sir thnk you very much
when you will publie your preduction for the last visa bultin ?
June 13, 2015 at 21:10
I don’t know that I will predict the last…. I’m not sure yet.
June 13, 2015 at 22:26
please when you will publish it ? i’m stell waiting for you prediction , my cn is AF482XX
June 13, 2015 at 23:13
Did you read the article – your number is very low.
June 13, 2015 at 20:31
For what depend vb cutof to arrive 65000
June 13, 2015 at 21:56
A lot of luck.
June 13, 2015 at 21:12
Hmmmm. your analysis is very helpful to us. Thank you very much. God bless you and your family.
BUT my hope of becoming an American citizen this year is now fizzling out in a way and the game is becoming more intense with so much suspense after reading your article. Case number (AF20156044X) what do you think?? #HOPE STILL ALIVE# I STILL BELIEVE IN GOD nor matter what. “Not until it is over its not over yet”
June 13, 2015 at 22:03
You still have a great chance – https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 13, 2015 at 21:25
Hey sir ,I got two questions plz
– How many visas should Iran take for Asia to reach 11k. ?
– Will KCC consider the ‘no shows’ of Nepal to make a big jump in Sept ?
June 13, 2015 at 22:00
1. Probably something less than 2700/2800
2. Nepal has few no shows. No shows and refusals allow re-allocation of visa slots to clearing AP cases.
June 13, 2015 at 23:20
Thank you , that was enlightening.
June 14, 2015 at 01:40
hello i know that you consider 11k up to 11999, my number is 12225, so a little bit further up
would you give the same answer you’ve given the above gentleman/lady
June 14, 2015 at 02:48
Yes – although 11001 is “safer” than 11999 – and 12225 is not as “safe” as either of those numbers. Risk increases with the higher number.
June 14, 2015 at 03:24
thank you for your answer
but just wondering, or there any other factors that could influence the final aside from only Iran
i understand the quota is only an estimation, is it possible it could be adjusted a few hundred to the positive end.
or perhaps a lower issued rate for Asia as a whole……im only asking because it seems like a coin toss that could go on either side and i would take all the help i can get right now if you don’t mind 🙂
June 14, 2015 at 04:12
You can look for all sorts of reasons to make yourself feel better, but in the end there is only one thing that matters – the number published in 4 weeks time.
June 14, 2015 at 15:39
how many visa Iran taken up to now??
June 14, 2015 at 15:41
Around 1250
June 15, 2015 at 14:36
hello sir…… If Iran will take around 2000 up to next VB ( up to 15th July),,,,,, how much next VB to ASIA region?????????
June 15, 2015 at 15:17
My thoughts are covered in the article above. The number Iran have achieved by next VB (which is the last) is not the point, KCC will predict based on information they have.
June 14, 2015 at 10:46
plz brit after second letter go out u can see how the last vb will look like???
June 14, 2015 at 15:38
Good luck for those who go current and best of luck for those missed up
June 14, 2015 at 15:54
Dear britsimon how u Sir but me i understand ur articl but some Dv winner still not understand must read propertiy my case no 2015Af5298* God bless u, u Jentel man!!!
June 14, 2015 at 20:03
Your number is safe.
June 15, 2015 at 00:45
plz brit after second letter go out u can see how the last vb will look like???
June 15, 2015 at 01:14
I probably won’t try and estimate the final VB – it is not a normal month – so the best thing is to see the real numbers.
June 15, 2015 at 03:46
Asian prediction :
Dear SIMON,
Current rate for NEPAL is 650 per month. In total 7150. There are three and half months left if we calculate until last. 1050 visas are still remain. For that if KDU issues 300 visas per month now to last day of September then the accurate figure comes out. By the mathematical calculation I prediction for NEPAL is 7800 in total.
In the other hand ROA including IRAN ratio is 695 per month. If we see to the visa bulletin in total Asian cutoff number is 7650. I think Asia can not cross the border of 9000. by that cutoff Asia hit 750 per month.
Please reply for discuss.
June 15, 2015 at 05:57
Sorry – but your predictions ignore the facts. Nepal is achieving over 450 visas issued per 1000 case numbers. So – 7800 is too high.
Then your ROA estimate also makes no sense.
I think you should consider a name change.
June 15, 2015 at 06:26
Sorry for misunderstandings.
470 visas per 1000 means 1000 visas from 2100. KDU have crossed over than 5673 cases. Please add 2100+5673= 7773 cases.
June 15, 2015 at 17:33
7.773 X 470 = 3653. That is too high.
June 15, 2015 at 23:21
Ummmmm. 470 per 1000 is just for rest 2100. Not for all.
June 15, 2015 at 23:34
Why?
June 15, 2015 at 09:16
How many visas togo taken up to now?
June 15, 2015 at 11:08
Near by 2500
June 15, 2015 at 10:55
simon, thanks go to you and your family, and not forgotten to appreciate your mother for taking good care of you. you are one of the greatest man of our time when it comes to knowledge. i strongly believe that what you have posted that AF65xxx still have a chance to be current is sure, because of your accurate prediction i have been following for the past time. and i pray that it should happen. cuz i have spent lot of money on document processing.
June 15, 2015 at 15:28
Don’t misunderstand me. When I say a number has a chance – it means they have some chance – that can be a big chance, or a little chance. So – the chance of AF reaching 65000 is very small – not a big chance. It is a possibility, not a certainty. I hope that is clear.
June 15, 2015 at 19:02
Pleasa haw many visas togo has using now?
June 15, 2015 at 19:36
I have answered this question already! It is irrelevant, but if you want to see what the embassy has issued, you should check the CEAC file for the LOM embassy. Right now that shows 198.
June 15, 2015 at 20:30
Thanks simon for your forum . My case no. 2016AF000240XX FROM EGYPT. DO U EXPECT EARLY INTERVIEW FOR ME. UP TO YOUR ESTIMATION , WHEN WILL BE MY INTERVIEW?
June 15, 2015 at 22:16
Yes I would expect an interview – around July or August
June 15, 2015 at 22:35
My dear i am 2016 not 2015. You mean july or august. 2016
June 15, 2015 at 23:38
Yes of course!
June 15, 2015 at 23:41
Britsimon the cut of will 68700 remeber that
June 15, 2015 at 23:43
In my heart hope you are correct. IN my head, I don’t think so…
June 16, 2015 at 01:00
U.S. Department of State: Consular Affairs
4 h ·
UPDATE: We continue to experience technical problems with our visa systems. This issue is not specific to any particular country or visa category. We apologize for the inconvenience and we are working around the clock to correct the problem. Currently, we are unable to print most immigrant and nonimmigrant visas approved after June 8, 2015. In addition, U.S. embassies and consulates are unable to process new applications submitted on or after June 9, 2015. If you have a visa interview appointment scheduled for June 14-20, 2015, and you submitted your DS-160 online application **after June 9, 2015,** you should reschedule your appointment. If you submitted your DS-160 online application prior to June 9, 2015, you should plan to attend your scheduled visa interview appointment. Our embassies and consulates will be posting location-specific information on their websites, so please check the website of the location where you applied for your visa for more information.
The technical issues also affected the Department of State’s ability to adjudicate applications for U.S. passports accepted overseas between May 26 and June 14, 2015. If you applied for a U.S. passport overseas during this time frame and have travel plans within the next 10 business days, please consider requesting an emergency passport at the U.S. embassy or consulate at which you originally applied. Information about how to apply for an emergency passport is available on the embassy/consulate website.
For additional information on the systems issue, please visit our website.
We know this affects your travel, and we apologize. Please understand that we cannot respond to individual case inquiries via social media platforms. We will continue to post updated information as it becomes available.
June 16, 2015 at 01:03
after this problem what do y tk about the next vb
June 16, 2015 at 04:06
This does not affect the VB.
June 16, 2015 at 03:16
Thanks for this blog. It makes the dv process understandable. I have a high 57XXX for 2015 and I am not giving up until I see the last VB. Please how can I improve the search ranking of blog in Google search?
June 16, 2015 at 04:03
You still have a good chance – so good luck. About searches – there are lots of techniques – but I’m not that experienced with ranking.
June 16, 2015 at 04:21
Hi,
When are you gonna extract the data again?
June 16, 2015 at 14:09
today.
June 16, 2015 at 07:34
From your answer brit i can feel that my number from egypt is safe and it will be a matter of time only. I thought that i will be in february or march. For af000240xx
June 16, 2015 at 10:25
How many updates left to close the 2015 Dv lottery program?
June 16, 2015 at 11:10
Is this the vee on vee from the truth breakfast show?
June 16, 2015 at 13:59
1
June 16, 2015 at 11:22
Brit. I know that this is way too far, however I was asked the question so I want to refer it to you, “given the way the 2015 cases is going will af be current in 2016? Or will cases like 54000 ever be current for 2016?
June 16, 2015 at 13:36
It is too early to be precise, but initial numbers suggest AF will not be current in 2016. Too early to be sure on your number.
June 16, 2015 at 11:31
Hi BritSimon,
My case number is EU00012XXX for DV 2016. Is this considered a high case number? How much of a chance do you think I have? Many thanks.
June 16, 2015 at 13:35
No, that is excellent. 100% chance.
June 16, 2015 at 13:40
Is my number safe for dv 2016 af44601
June 16, 2015 at 13:56
Probably safe, yes.
June 16, 2015 at 14:03
What’s the Highest case number for 2016 or what’s the highest case number you have seen?
June 16, 2015 at 14:12
They vary by region. I don’t have the 2016 data yet.
June 16, 2015 at 16:39
good day Simon
pls advise on this cn: 2016AFxxx13000 and 2016AFXXX46700 and AFXXX50300
when is interview to be held?
pls to hear
June 16, 2015 at 16:57
Roughly speaking you can get an idea from looking at when those numbers would have been interviewed in DV2015.
So – rather than me answer your question – check the link below and answer it yourself so you get a better understanding.
https://britsimonsays.com/historical-visa-bulletin-numbers/
June 16, 2015 at 16:55
BRIT . YOU SAID THAT PROPABLY JULY OR AUGUST. I FOUND SAME CASE NUMBER 2015 HAD AN INTERVIEW IN MONTH OF MAY . IS IT POSSIBLE FOR ME
June 16, 2015 at 17:01
No – if you check the link below you will see that Egypt is treated differently – I have considered that in my answer whereas you are looking at the Africa region.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-june-2015.html
June 17, 2015 at 08:26
i’ve read an article written by you saying that AF60xxx is 100% safe
was that before last VB???
thanks
and i am sorry my english is not so good
June 17, 2015 at 13:48
Yes, I have lowered my range.
June 17, 2015 at 08:28
sorry i mean a comment not an article
June 18, 2015 at 19:36
hi brit …
even you’re not goinng to publish the final cut-off can we refer to these guesstimates or not to approximatively know our position according to our cn???
June 19, 2015 at 09:32
Brit. I wan to make changes to my sponsor. can I ask KCC to unlock my form and when do I have to do that? my CN is AF50070.
June 19, 2015 at 14:19
Do not unlock now, you will be current in the next VB. Just change at the interview.
June 19, 2015 at 12:55
HELLO BRIT
I AM A SELETEE FOR 2016. HOW CAN I RETREIVE MY DOB AS I WANT TO COMPLETE THE DS 260 FORM BUT I ONLY REMEMBER THE YEAR, BECAUSE I WAS NOT WELL AT THE TIME AND MY SIS SUBMITTED MY INFORMATION AND SHE SNAPPED MY PIC AT THE TIME. BUT I AM CONFUSE ON HOW I CAN GET THE INFO TO COMPLETE THE FORM. PLS HELP ME
June 19, 2015 at 14:14
Your date of birth is something you should know. There is no way to retrieve what you wrote on the eDV, although you can test it by trying the lost confirmation page on the ESC site.
June 19, 2015 at 17:15
simon
is backlog and No show cases are same ??
June 19, 2015 at 17:42
No.
Backlog cases are late DS260 submissions that get processed later than their current date.
No shows are cases that were scheduled for interview but fail to show up for their interview.
June 19, 2015 at 22:15
ok Simon ,,, i do have three question please
1- do we have record for No show cases
2- What is the response rate for the meanwhile
3- If KCC decide to neglect No show and AP cases will this going to take us back to your old prediction about high case numbers
thanks again
June 19, 2015 at 23:41
1. No
2. I will know better after the next 2NLs – or you can check the recent CEAC files.
3. The derivative rate growth that we now know plus the other factors mean that we cannot “get back” to old predictions.
In 3 weeks time we will have the official final numbers….
June 19, 2015 at 18:56
thank for your good work here sir
so sir those number that are below 65000 are not safe
June 19, 2015 at 19:31
Some below that number are not “safe” that is correct.
June 20, 2015 at 06:30
once again sir thank for your info
so it mean those numbers as from 644°°° are not even sure for this process i have just lost hope in this dv for this yrs
June 20, 2015 at 11:02
hi brit\
i asked kcc to change the locution but i don’t understand so please can you explain what they sea
Please note that unless you are informed otherwise, you generally must apply for your Diversity Visa at the U.S. consular office having jurisdiction over your place of residence. However, you may also apply for your visa at the U.S. consular office having jurisdiction over the place where you are physically present but not a resident, if you can establish to the consular officer’s satisfaction that you are able to remain in the area for the period required to process the application.
(Applicants are reminded that DV applicants must complete processing of the cases by no later than September 30 of the DV program year.)
If living in the U.S., a principal applicant may request an interview in the U.S. Consular Office at their last foreign residence
Once the DS-260 has been submitted, the Interview Location can only be updated by the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC). Please send your request to [email protected]. You will need to include information that explains why you need the interview location changed.
If you need to change your interview location because your residency has changed, you will need to include the previous address on the original electronic entry and the new address in your email. You will also need to request that KCC unlock your DS-260, so that you can update your application with your new address. (Please note that Post Office Boxes and mailing addresses in care of another person do not justify a change of interview location.)
When inquiring about the status of your case, you must provide the Principal Applicant’s full name, complete case number, and date of birth in the following format (MMDDYYYY) as entered on the original entry. Please remember that the Kentucky Consular Center is a document processing facility, and cannot advise you on whether or not you will qualify for a visa. Only a consular officer can make that decision.
June 20, 2015 at 14:08
What don’t you understand? It is all very clear. If you are struggling with the English, use google translate or ask a friend to translate it for you. Remember these responses are “generic” meaning they are not specific to your case.
June 20, 2015 at 22:07
Hi brit.i want to thank you for efforts for replying every single question from everybody. Just a question. I was planning before to migrate to australia. But since i am lottery winner in 2016 all my plans are changed. I am physcian and when i will decide to work in usa. I have to go through us medical licence of exams which will take from me hard time. Money and efforts. Sorry for long. But according to my case number. 2016af240##, from egypt. Is it any bad luck not to be interviewed or not become current, since egypt is a exception? I just want to start my journey in USMLE with support. Thanks again for answer.
June 20, 2015 at 23:02
Mohamed, I can’t give you a certain answer. I would be surprised if you did not get an interview, but I don’t have enough data to be certain. You will have to wait and see.
June 20, 2015 at 22:14
I am sorry for keeping asking u. But i am feeling comfort and happy to see your answers. Thanks again for encouraging and support all of us