OK – so along the same idea as the Africa example, I wanted to publish some thoughts on what is happening/will happen in Asia.
From the extract I posted on Friday there is some interesting data.
First – Nepal.
The file shows KDU embassy have issued about 200 visas since the beginning of the month – which is pretty amazing given they were closed for the first week of the month due to the earthquake. It seems like KDU embassy is interviewing again and will be able to process it’s cases. As of now, Nepal has 2217 issued visas. 2127 of those are below 4725 – the highest CN for April. Dividing 2127 by 4.725 gives the issued per 1000 rate – 450. Now we know that Nepal will probably get cutoff at 3500 or so and a few visas will go on AoS cases – but if the issued rate continues at this pace we could say 3500/450 would give us the likely cutoff point for Nepal which is 7777. In reality I expect a few more cases under 4725 to be approved AND I think the cutoff may be applied slightly earlier because of AoS cases. On the other hand, the earthquake may have affected a few families who decided not to leave their homeland at this time. So – I now think the cutoff for Nepal could be around 7300 to 7800, most likely around 7500.
Having said that. From a region point of view, the story in Nepal is academic. Nepal will hit the max – there is no doubt about that. So – we can assume Nepal takes 3500 visas from the quota (and the quota for AS region is around 8300 to 8500, with around 500 going to AoS cases. Let us optimistically say the Nepal leaves 4800 to 5000 visas remaining for Iran and the rest of Asia (ROA). Given that there will be Aos cases from that 4800 to 5000, we should work on 4500 remaining.
So – Iran.
I have been explaining for some months that Iran is the key to how high the final number goes for Asia. In DV2013, Iran took over 3500 visas. But then in DV2014 something changed and Nepal only took 2300 visas – a huge reduction. The difference was AP cases (Administrative Processing). Cases in the last 4 or 5 months that went on AP had no time to complete and many Iranian AP cases missed out. So the question for Asia this year has been would Iran take 2300 or something higher.
Well the CEAC file on Friday reveals there has been a very noticeable jump in issued visas at the 3 embassies that handle Iranian cases. I think that is a sign that AP cases that started in December January and perhaps even February are being approved. Iran appears to have doubled its issued number in the last 6 weeks. If that pace continues, Iran could take 2700, perhaps even 3000 visas. Since Iranian cases are all concentrated below CN8200, that means they will be current before the higher case numbers in Asia. So – from our 4500 visas we can take at least 2700. That leaves 1800 visas for ROA.
Rest of Asia (ROA)
Up to now, ROA has been taking 130 visas per 1000, and that number is maturing (DS260 cases completing) – meaning it will probably end up at something around 140/1000 – probably a bit more (maybe as high as 150).
So if we assume the issued rate for ROA is 140 that would mean we could see 12850, and at 150 per 1000 we would see 12000. It seems clear we will not see a final number for ROA higher than 13000, and realistically cases in the 11XXX and 12XXX range are going to have a nervous wait. We need to keep an eye on the Iran rate.
Of course we need to see the 2NLs to see if anything changes and I will be watching the Iranian cases. I will issue an update if anything changes.
May 18, 2015 at 05:15
yes, we are waiting for super clear in Iranian AP case during end of may & july!
Cheer Mr. Simon
May 18, 2015 at 05:42
thank you for your information
so i understand of that
10k and less is safe . is’nt it ?
May 18, 2015 at 13:27
*AS11k and less ,(optimistically) according to the post.
May 18, 2015 at 15:23
I believe so. The only risk to that would be Iran taking more than 3000 or the ROA rate of issuance jumping very high.
May 18, 2015 at 05:51
Enter your comment here…
hi i am vivek from nepal my cn was 784* is there any chance for my number plz tell me i am so stressed
May 18, 2015 at 15:20
Your number is in a risky range. You can only wait and see.
May 18, 2015 at 06:06
What do you think.. Are we gonna have the big jump to maybe get close to this range 11XXX-12XXX in the next VB or the Final?
May 18, 2015 at 15:19
That will take 2 VBs
May 18, 2015 at 06:43
Good prediction. Yes it is going to end the way you predicted above.
May 18, 2015 at 07:08
Hello Brit
Thank you for your hard work. You are superb! Why don’t KCC hire you for your work? Do they ever know that you exist?
Do you think Nepal will have 1 vb or both? #cn745x
May 18, 2015 at 14:54
Hrd to say whether the capacity in Nepal will allow all the Nepal numbers to be released in one VB or not.
May 18, 2015 at 10:10
Thanks for the update!
May 18, 2015 at 11:50
Hi simon. Thanks for your information. Im from iran and my case number is 20016AS 72** . Do u think there is any hope for me to get interview? And if answer is yes, approximately which month? ( i submited my DS260 form on 13 may)
May 18, 2015 at 14:08
You will interview just over a year from now – your number is pretty safe as far as we can tell this far out.
May 19, 2015 at 11:45
Thanks for ur reply… So as u said my interview will be next year june or july, then if i get AP there is no chance for getting visa. Im dentist and i didnt have any goverment job and no military. Do u think still i have a chance to get AP?
May 19, 2015 at 13:53
Much less risk then.
May 18, 2015 at 12:08
Thank you, Is it possible for Iran to get even more than 3000?
May 18, 2015 at 14:06
Hard to say – it took them 6 months to get 500 and then 500 more in 6 weeks – so it is pretty dynamic right now.
May 18, 2015 at 13:24
You are awesome!
(wanted to comment so I can start getting notifications via email , and just couldn’t find a better comment )
May 18, 2015 at 13:58
Haha – you could have simply subscribed – but this works too!
May 18, 2015 at 16:02
Hi Simon,
My CN is 2015As55?? . I am from Iran. Do you think 3 months is enough for AP process? How many visa for Iran issued untill now?
Thanks
Alireza
May 18, 2015 at 20:40
3 months is about the fastest I would expect that type of AP to take.
So far they have around 1100.
May 18, 2015 at 23:35
Thank you for reply. As I understand from your answer, it means most of Iranian who go for interview during June and months after, If they get AP most of them could.not get a visa because of there is no time for AP process be finishe? Am I right?
Thanks
Alireza
May 18, 2015 at 23:50
Probably the risky time is from July onwards – perhaps late June.
May 18, 2015 at 16:11
Hi Brit,
Let’s say the worst case scenario. Iran take 3500. What would be the final number for AS ?
AS8500 safe ?
May 18, 2015 at 20:39
I don’t think that is possible (IRan taking 3500) – but that would become borderline…
May 18, 2015 at 18:57
Hi Simon,
Thanks again for all the information and hard work.
I asked you 4 months ago about my number which is 2015AS83XX and from IRAN.
That time you told me my number is safe.
What about now? I am worried about AP. but none of us was in government or military except that 2 years mandatory army service for my husband that was almost 30 years ago.
Many thanks,
May 18, 2015 at 20:22
Your number is still safe to go current. The issue is still AP. If you can avoid AP you have a good chance. BUT if you get AP there is probably not enough time to process that AP before the end of the year. You should be current in August.
May 18, 2015 at 19:17
Brit I have a question! Do you think that the Yemen situation would affect the ROA final number by a little? I know this is really tough for Yemenis and i hope that the situation over there doesn’t affect them from getting their visas but that is a fact that we can’t change! Yemenis received 200 visas last year
May 18, 2015 at 20:16
Yes it does affect the AS number a little – but 200 is pretty small – and many of those cases have been processed.
May 19, 2015 at 01:33
Hi brit, you applied unitary method to calculate cut off number for nepal.Didnt you consider, the number of cases from declines as the higher case number comes??
May 19, 2015 at 03:24
No because Nepal cases are uniform until the cutoff (just over 9000). So – there is no decline as you mention.
May 19, 2015 at 03:24
Hi Brit ..can u tell how many visas were rejected till now from kdu …for dv 2015 .
May 19, 2015 at 13:56
That is in the latest file. Please take a look.
May 19, 2015 at 04:05
Hi brit
My cn is AS48xx. I think its safe. But I want to hear it from you hhh.
May 19, 2015 at 13:56
Safe. 🙂
May 19, 2015 at 04:24
The earthquake in Nepal has no effect whatsoever?
May 19, 2015 at 13:55
It caused them to stop interviews for a week and possibly reduced capacity but in the end they still have time to max out in Nepal.
May 19, 2015 at 05:08
Hi,Brit…
i want to know that in Nepal another visa bulletin will publish or not?Are you sure this is not a final cut off for Nepal? Is there any chance for me to get second letter. case number 66**.Thanking you.
May 19, 2015 at 05:27
I am not SURE, but it is my best guess. In three weeks you will know for sure.
May 19, 2015 at 13:06
Mr. Simon, Thank you so much for the time you dedicate to help us get our GCs. Quick question, would you have time to post an estimate for SA just as you did for Asia and Africa? Thanks again!
May 19, 2015 at 13:26
No I probably can’t do SA since the political situation is affecting the process. SA is likely to undershoot it’s quota. So, it is not quota that will drive the progress, it is reduced capacity which I have no way to predict.
May 19, 2015 at 16:46
Simon, by the political situation you mean that the Caracas embassy is understaffed? If that’s the case, even though President Maduro ordered the US diplomats to leave, the reality is that the embassy is still operating with the same staff numbers as last year. No diplomat expulsions have actually taken place, Maduro was just bluffing.
May 19, 2015 at 17:33
Yes – I do mean that and the changes in Cuba. With regard to Caracas there could still be some change in capacity. Frankly it is obvious that “something” has changed because the numbers are too low and the pace does not look likely to reach what should be the regional quota for SA. Hopefully the pace will have picked up at the end of the month – I would be wanting to see 140/150 per month.
May 19, 2015 at 18:03
Does resolving AP depend on how many cases an embassy has or on something else? Do they prioritize DV cases among other categories on AP like H1b, j, f, etc., thank you
May 19, 2015 at 18:32
I think workload may factor into it – and DV tends to get a priority because it is time sensitive, but other than that I can only speculate.
May 19, 2015 at 18:30
Simon, I’m sure this year Iran will get more than 3000 visas. Regarding APs, more KCC people work on AP cases in months of August and September, quoting from a State Department official. Hence AP process will be much faster towards the end, usually two to four weeks for cases in August n September. This has always been the case for the last two months, except last year. But forget about last year, that was an extraordinary extraordinary case. I believe you still consider 2014 as your basis for AP analysis. As almost all Iranians go to their interview by the end of August, I estimate more than 3200 visas being issued for Iranians. I guarantee this 😉
May 19, 2015 at 18:35
LOL – thanks for the guarantee – although you and I are only predicting something we do not control. Interesting point about KCC staff being increased in August and September – but they do not process the AP cases – so I am not sure why you think that is important.
Once thing is true – we can predict whatever we like – but in the end we can only wait and see what happens.
May 19, 2015 at 19:00
thank god for video games, is all i can say, from now until july 10th
May 20, 2015 at 05:33
No problem 😀 again as for the AP, I quoted from a state department official who came on Persian TV n said the AP process will be much faster towards the end as more people work on AP cases. I just made the quotes from her. Nobody knows what happened last year. As you can already see, the process this year is better than last year. I guess it will be more than the 3000 visas for iran.
May 20, 2015 at 17:08
Well we will see….
May 21, 2015 at 00:22
Well it’s faster now than last year , guess that’s what they meant 😀 .
May 19, 2015 at 19:17
Mr Brit intelligent work as you always do..
May 20, 2015 at 00:57
What do you think about the maximum capacity of KDU embassy regarding DV interviews in a month?
Thank you!
May 20, 2015 at 01:46
Well I don’t know because they may operate on reduced capacity – but really it doesn’t matter. Nepal will fill the quota in one month or two months – it will be at the same cutoff number either way. Let us wait and see after the 2NLs.
May 20, 2015 at 01:26
Hi Simon
Recently, I’ve won the EDV Lottery with case number 2016AS00004233. At Beginning I had worked in U.A.E for 24 months. I completed the contract and extended visa as well. I am not authorised to get work certificate as well. But i never did the crime. During vacation i came back to nepal and that is just 1 year ago. I didn’t went back to u.a.e. Because of some family reason. And I heard that i need a police report of u.a.e. Could it be possible for further processing of my visa without my police report of u.a.e. What easy process i can go through? Please Give me the hints for these problems. I humbly request you that you will advise me with some guidance. Thank You..
May 20, 2015 at 01:49
You should be reading the dvselectee site for instructions you answer is very clear there. Here is what is says.
“Police Records
Available, only if applicant is physically present in the UAE..
Police certificates may be obtained by any person, regardless of nationality, by personally appearing at the Central Police Headquarters located in the emirate of residence or former residence. When appearing to request a police certificate, the applicant should provide recent photographs, a letter from the requesting authority, the date of residence in the emirate, and their passport..
Not available by mail. Post recommends that consular officers waive the general requirement to obtain police certificates unless the applicant lives in the UAE.
“
May 20, 2015 at 06:57
simon !! I saw ur new update of Nepal..bit confused wht will happen to the case number 5520 for 2016 intake.is tht safe or not?
May 20, 2015 at 17:11
Should be safe.
May 21, 2015 at 01:58
U cant say 100%safe?
May 21, 2015 at 05:05
Not yet – we don’t know much about the max case numbers, the entries and so on. Just relax and wait….
May 20, 2015 at 12:01
Hello Britismon…
In Nepal how many visa bulletin will left to publish? Is there any chance to get second letter of 66**? How many visas will left for Nepal to meet the limit?
With regards.
Thank you.
May 20, 2015 at 17:42
There are two VBs left but Nepal might not increase in both of them – we don’t know. However, your number should be OK.
May 20, 2015 at 12:33
Hello mr simon
Thanks for ur effort
Is traveling to US as a tourist lowers the chance for AP if didnt have AP when traveled as a tourist?
May 20, 2015 at 17:42
That is sometimes helpful but not always.
May 20, 2015 at 12:57
Are you planning to post a similar thing for EU?
May 20, 2015 at 17:42
I’m not sure yet.
May 20, 2015 at 13:52
Hi Simon, During the year I worked in Thailand , I went back to my home country back and forth. However, most of time stayed in Thailand. Do I have to get the police clearance. I had send my request to Thai police twice but no responsed up to now. Or do I have to wait for the interview letter before applying for the police clearance. My number is AS201500010xxx thanks for your help.
May 20, 2015 at 17:44
Don’t get your police clearance yet – your interview is over 1 year away. If your main residence was Thailand during that period then yes you should apply for the clearance.
May 20, 2015 at 22:11
hey brit , his case number is 201510xxx it can’t be a year till the interview
May 20, 2015 at 22:14
Sorry – you are quite right – well spotted. I though it was a 2016 case – my bad.
Given that, according to the instructions it should only take two to three weeks. Here is was the reciprocity page says.
Police Records
Available. Police certificates are obtainable from:.
Section 3, Sub-Division 2. General Staff Division
Special Branch
Royal Thai Police Department
Rama I Road
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330.
Residents of Thailand requesting a Thai police certificate will need to present two recent photographs (2 inch x 2 inch), the original and a copy of his/her passport, identification card, household registration, name change certificate (if any), marriage and divorce certificate (if any). Thai males aged 17-45 must also present military record or proof of exemption from military service..
Non-residents should send their requests to the Royal Thai Police Department at the above address with the required documents and a fingerprint taken by a police authority at their place of residence..
Normal processing time is two to three weeks. There is no processing fee.
May 21, 2015 at 00:27
Dear Simon, I sent it twice with all the necessary documents to the above address but still couldn’t get the report. What should I do? I called to the Thai embassy in my home country, they suggested me to fly to Thailand. I think that doesn’t make sense.
May 21, 2015 at 01:40
And you got the fingerprints etc? I think I would try again taking documentary evidence including photographs of the pack you are sending. MAke sure you follow the instructions perfectly. An understanding CO would hopefully take that into account.
May 21, 2015 at 03:46
Alright, I try again. Thank you so much
May 21, 2015 at 05:35
Hi Brit you have been giving different answer to different people regarding next VB for nepal. Earlier, you said that July VB is not final cut off number for DV 2015. You had said that possibility exist that KCC may publish August VB for Nepal as well and now you are saying that next two vb is not for Nepal. I am worried so let me know whether or not 6475 is final cut off number for Nepal.
May 21, 2015 at 05:44
I think you are confused. I have not said the next two VBs are not for Nepal. My position is this:-
I do not believe 6475 is the final number – there will be an increase in one or both of the VBs until the limit is reached.
May 21, 2015 at 11:09
Hi Brit,
This is from Nepal, My case number is 2015AS89**, what should I do ??
May 21, 2015 at 20:17
There is nothing you can do except wait. Once you see the VB that is released in July, you will know your fate.
May 21, 2015 at 11:41
OMG!
May 21, 2015 at 17:13
Hello Mr. Simon
Regarding translation of docemunts to English , I have done it once almost 2 years ago , Do I need to get new translations???
Thanks
May 21, 2015 at 19:14
No. Translations don’t expire.
May 21, 2015 at 18:09
Dear simon
Case number 7848 from Nepal. Did u see some possibility or not… I am confused what to do wait or give up…plz suggest me….
May 21, 2015 at 19:10
It is now a risky range – not low enough to be safe, and not high enough to be hopeless – you can only wait and see.
May 21, 2015 at 19:21
Dear Britsimon,
We are still awaiting the estimate information for EU eagerly as you told. When do you think post it for EU?
Thanks and Best Regards,
May 21, 2015 at 20:35
Since the 2NLs are now out I am going to wait to see the 2NL data in CEAC before posting anything about EU.
May 21, 2015 at 23:56
Simon,
As I am current for July. I should get the 2nd letter by email, correct? I see that some people have claimed to have got their letter and I have not. What do I do now? Do I wait for another day as you said it may take couple of days to send letters out or should I contact NVC or embassy? This DV process is certainly a test of patience.
May 22, 2015 at 02:36
The 2NL is an email and the email says to check the ESC site where you see your appointment details.
Some people have got the email and then checked the ESC site and have seen the appointment letter.
Some people have got the email and then checked the ESC site and have NOT seen the appointment letter.
I don’t know how many are in scenario 1 or 2 and also there may be more emails going out. The CEAC data is not updated to “in Transit” – and that is unusual.
You can call or email KCC to check – or simply just wait another day or so.
May 30, 2015 at 18:10
Hey Brit,
please reply
I am from Nepal
I am in a scenario 2 : Some people have got the email and then checked the ESC site and have NOT seen the appointment letter.
email says to check ESC site and check updates after u enter original confirmation no. ….. i did but i found no updates… m worried its already 10 days i received this email.
please help … what should i do??
Regards
May 30, 2015 at 18:17
Relax and wait. It will be updated soon. If you want you can phone KCC who can tell you the date the interview is set in July – but there is LOTS of time….
May 30, 2015 at 18:32
Thank you for ur concern Brit
I am worried for a thing that.. if i will miss the scheduled date of an interview.. because as per email okay i am notified but i find no updates… so am seeking ur help. Thank you
May 22, 2015 at 02:49
Hi Simon,
I saw this message on the website,
“..Note: Present and former residents of the United States should NOT obtain any police certificates covering their residence in the United States…”
I used to live in the U.S. for 4 years for school…so that means I don’t have to obtain police certificates from the US, right? Thank you for your kindly response.
May 22, 2015 at 03:45
Correct. No police certs for the USA
May 22, 2015 at 04:16
Hi Simon my one is AS2015113xx from Sri lanka…. may I expect my interview?
May 22, 2015 at 05:39
You still have a chance for an interview in September.
May 22, 2015 at 06:16
These 20 days gonna be like a century lived 😀 Also waiting for the June prediction for August interviews and hope finally to be current this time.
May 22, 2015 at 14:37
Hi Raj,
I’ll be calculating predictions once the CEAC site is updated with 2NLs.
May 22, 2015 at 13:32
2015AS10XXX
1-is it considered ‘safe’ ?!
2-( if so ) most likely to expect August or September interview ?!
Thank you in advance 🙂 !
May 22, 2015 at 14:02
Right now I could not say it is 100% safe – but a very good chance. If you get an interview it will be in September.
February 13, 2016 at 17:07
1. No. If numbers go like last year, it would be too high. If they transfer quota from EU, then you might have a chance – but it is too early to know if they will do that.
2. I think you will have to wait until July when the last VB will be release (for September interviews).
May 22, 2015 at 17:18
Brit, My Mother is a Syrian Citizen and she won for the 2015! and she has my father and my sister as dependents! there is a small problem, my father last name is different from my sisters (my father has an additional letter that was added by mistake on his passport).. what do you think they should do.. on the DS260 they had to put the two different last names as they appear on the passports.. should they contact KCC or just wait until their interview? can the green cards be issued with two different last names for the same family members?
May 22, 2015 at 17:21
The DS260 should contain the ACCURATE names. If it is not accurate then contact KCC to unlock, or correct it at the interview.
May 22, 2015 at 18:16
Yes they are actually accurate on the DS260 as they appear on their passports (My father’s last name on his passport ends with two letters “ou” while my sister’s last name on her passport ends with only “o” but they both have the same pronunciation in our language “Arabic”)
so my question is: can they still receive the green cards with two different last names as a father and daughter?
second question, if my father decides to go and get a new passport with a correct last name, can he then change it “the last name during the interview” with having a copy with the old passport to prove that he is the same person? so after you win with a last name, can you change the last name and have them issue the green card with the new last name?
May 22, 2015 at 18:38
The different names would be OK but you should try to make sure the future Green Card matches the names that are shown in birth certs and so on. You can change at the interview as well if needed.
May 22, 2015 at 19:40
So should I give up or wait…..do u know simon waiting next two or one month is very expensive for me …..if I will get 2nd letter then it will be OK but if not then it will harmful to me…. So I am panic……. Plz honestly suggest me….. Wait or give up ?….sorry to such a foolish question…. I hope u will take it easy…..my case no. Is 7848 from Nepal.
May 23, 2015 at 18:31
Dear Simon
I just need one reply form u plz as soon as possible. …thank you.
May 26, 2015 at 09:05
Hi ,we are eager to see your month of August prediction
May 28, 2015 at 05:23
Hello Britsimon
I have seen some people are saying that they don’t have government jobs nor experience in military services.. What does it mean? Is that a compulsory requirement ? I’m from Sri Lanka.
May 28, 2015 at 12:36
government jobs – experience in military services .. are reasons some cases get put on AP (Adminisstrative Processing)which take time .. and all those questions mostly come from Iranian selectees .
May 28, 2015 at 15:29
You have read that mainly in relation to Iranian selectees. Just focus on your own case…
May 29, 2015 at 04:32
Thanks man…
Yes I am… 🙂