A couple of days ago I started a survey form to collect case numbers. The response has been terrific, as usual, you all came through with what I asked for. So – that has given us some interesting new data to look at, and at least one surprise (low max case number in Europe).
Take a look at my video below:
For those that just want the punchline, I can tell you the following are the best guesses for max assigned case numbers for DV2021 based on the survey.
AF 88XXX
AS 38XXX
EU 40XXX
OC 33XX
SA 45XX
Nepal looks to be limited around 10,000.
August 26, 2020 at 00:33
Hello Brit,you are doing a great job.Very informative and educative????????????
August 26, 2020 at 00:57
Hi Brit, thanks for your case number analysis. Here you can find the case number statistics for post Soviet countries (mostly Russia’s case numbers): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-XxWmModAMPhAGY3gKGJ20u-Ol_yYROqJrrQsu8tNKs/edit#gid=765097520
August 26, 2020 at 02:51
Thanks
August 26, 2020 at 02:26
Hey Simon,
Probably a stupid question but are all the countries entitled to a certain amount of visa per DV no matter how high your case number is? I know you often mention a cutoff per country. I have for example seen only a couple cases reported for certain countries and the range would be from 25XXX to 40XXX in Europe. Does that technically mean that for these countries, the lowest case number you could get is around 25000? And since it’s not exactly super low for Europe, does that mean that you would technically be able to get a visa still?
Thanks!
August 26, 2020 at 02:45
no, there are no allocations per country. The 7% cap is not an allocation.
August 26, 2020 at 02:44
I tried to ask you many times but it don’t know why my questions are not posted.
Dear Mr Brit you understand that we have passed a very stressful year.
Please clearify me smth.If we will rule on presidental proclamations but the Fy will not be extended,do you think there will be enough time for us who had an interview date since March,to get a reschedule?
Ps: my interview date was on 17 th of March,the same day the embassy in Albania cancelled everything.
I read your the laywere response to the government today and I understood that they made an amazing job,never seen such lawyers before and I really congratulate them even if we don’t win.But im worried that even if we win, embassies could get an order about giving less visas.My situation is a bit bad cos I got married to my gf when i got to know that I was selected but I sent to the embassy eviendece of me and my gf since 2017.Please let me know what do you think on the situation:We really love you in Albania and we wish you all the best!
Best wishes
Joni
August 26, 2020 at 03:18
This seems like terrible news particularly for SA because there are less cases than people.
5500 people/ 4500 cases = 1.22 people per case. Even with holes, whatever your CN is, there is more people ahead of you. The same can’t be said about Africa for example.
Even with the added 5000 visas from NACARA and the adding of Peru, it may be very difficult for numbers above SA20XX to be current.
We don’t know how the pandemic, the election, how Cuba, Venezuela and Peru will behave in regards to response and denial rates, so I guess my CN of SA32XX is as of now hopeless with the info and historical data we have.
August 26, 2020 at 19:33
You are confused. There are less cases than people in EVERY region. ALWAYS. And there are not 4500 cases, there are less than that, because of the holes.
Please try again to understand what I have explained.
August 26, 2020 at 05:56
Mr Simon I,m in Africa region and my case number is around 55,000 and still not yet received email requesting for documents will my case number go current for an interview and looking at it well is it going to be next year around April?
August 26, 2020 at 19:44
You need to wait and see. If we lose the remainder of 2020, then it is unlikely that they can process your number range as early as April.
August 26, 2020 at 10:48
Hello,I am from EU ( Bulgaria) with case number 296xx .Hope this helps
August 26, 2020 at 11:04
What does this mean exactly for Europe? The numbers are very consistent between the ranges, not high holes as you have mentioned (which makes things shaky for cases higher than 25k), and I couldn’t help but notice that there is an extremely big number of cases between the 30-40k range (even more than the 20-30k range but this is just a survey and not many people participated). It seems to me that the response rate is going to be very high (the derivative rate for this region is also high, it can get higher than 2.2) and we are going to see a low September cut off for this region, just like 2018. I am also expecting to see many refusals because of the new passport rule and the fact that Uzbekistan generally has an extremely high refusal rate (as observed from the ceac data). I am feeling very nervous after seeing this update on the case number survey, it’s going to be a scary journey for EU DV21.
August 26, 2020 at 21:17
There are two ways to look at things. Mathematically and “Real world”.
Using math you can assume there are abou 23k cases, 40/41k high case number – so about 45% holes. So – people can therefore work out where their case falls in the number range fairly easily.
However, the real world factors are very real, and very impactful. So – we should wait a couple of months to see how things go in the election, the pandemic, and so on.
August 27, 2020 at 08:46
Simon, just a quick follow up on this.
Assuming 23,000 EU cases is roughly in the ballpark, and considering an historical “action” rate of 60% (% that files application for interview), that would lead to about 14,000 actioned cases. Makes sense?
With a derivative rate of 1.9 that makes about 27,000 individuals (50% of total visas available…).
I know it’s a crystall-ball kind of question, but what’s your feeling in terms of action rate? Many factors playing a role here. Was wondering what that was back in 08/09 (perhaps the closest proxy given the current sociopolitical climate in the US and around the world).
August 27, 2020 at 21:54
I have created some explanations of this. There are many factors which could come in to play, but even if we ignore those your calculation ignores the quota for EU which will be just under 20k.
August 29, 2020 at 21:52
Hello, I apologize if my question is silly, but I might miss something. why the quota isn’t increased if the total number of visas are almost back to 55k? Thank you, e.
August 30, 2020 at 13:58
If you had totalled up my quota estimates you would have seen I used 54750 as the global quota. In other words I have accounted for the increase.
August 31, 2020 at 18:03
Hello,
I see, but I still dont understand something.In DV2017, 2018 nearly 20k EU visas had been issued (i got the info from ceac xartishius), and I thought this will be the first, almost 55k quota year. The visa bulletin for 2017 oct and 2018 oct says the annual limit is 50 000 for Dv2017&DV2018, this is why I asked. Thanks anyway, E.
November 20, 2020 at 16:56
Hi Brit I’m from Africa my case number is at Af 60xxx how can u advice me I have already sent my ds 260 trusting God I will be scheduled for a interview
November 20, 2020 at 18:11
You have a long time to wait. Be patient.
August 27, 2020 at 11:40
Hi Brit This is Shahid From Afghanistan,Asia I have 5xx CN and I have Submitted My Doc and I have Received the email in July 8, so what should I do?
August 27, 2020 at 21:58
Well – follow their instructions.
August 31, 2020 at 17:40
Hello,
I see, but I still dont understand something.In DV2017, 2018 nearly 20k EU visas had been issued (i got the info from ceac xartishius), and I thought this will be the first, almost 55k quota year. The visa bulletin for 2017 oct and 2018 oct says the annual limit is 50 000 for Dv2017&DV2018, this is why I asked. Thanks anyway, E.
August 31, 2020 at 20:26
In a year where a region fails to fill its quota, in certain circumstances those visas can be used by other regions. However in a year where all regions are overselected, that would not happen – so the quota should be considered the target.
August 31, 2020 at 21:28
Thank you for your answer.
August 27, 2020 at 13:13
Dear Brit,
Thank you for the video and for your time. Based on the survey, will case numbers 39*** for Europe have an opportunity? Or at the contrary the chances are zero?
August 27, 2020 at 22:02
As I have explained in articles and videos, it is too soon to be sure.
August 27, 2020 at 16:13
Hi Brit
Does this mean AF 2021 55xxx can forget it, with current situation, I predict a long wait, but losing it..
August 27, 2020 at 22:03
It is too soon to make such a prediction.
August 27, 2020 at 22:18
Greetings Britsimon, I’m a winner of dv2020 Afxxx68xxx and no email from you people after I sent sent my documents and you asked to wait from 3-6weeks and I have waited to no aveil or am I eliminated.No email from you whether I should process my doDocuments
August 27, 2020 at 22:39
DV2020 cases are blocked by a presidential ban. We are fighting that ban. Read the recent articles.
August 28, 2020 at 13:22
Hi Brit! Thanks much for what you doing for us! I read you articles and I have a question – do i understand it correctly that with the case number EU30*** we can succeed in normal circumstances?
August 28, 2020 at 19:59
I think its too early to be sure of that.
August 28, 2020 at 20:25
Hello Brit, will you be posting video about EU case number analysis? Thank you for the help.
August 28, 2020 at 21:42
Yes
August 28, 2020 at 23:33
Based on your survey, what are the highest numbers in Egypt and what are the case number 36k chances?
August 29, 2020 at 03:44
Your case number is the highest reported on the spreadsheet, with 33 responses. Whilst not 100% certain that would suggest your case number is near the highest case number for Egypt. You may find more Egypt winners in other forums.
August 29, 2020 at 04:25
I have heard case number in Egypt higher than 57k and 82k. But I heard a lot of numbers in Egypt about 20k to 35k. And a lot of numbers in Egypt about 2k to 15k.
If I’m right what are the chances of my number 36k?
August 29, 2020 at 14:14
I can’t calculate that based on something which is more about what you want to believe rather than what is true.
August 29, 2020 at 15:38
Dear mr. Simon, what do you think about EU283XX? Would the response rate not be higher than 60% because the people with passports are more serious? I mean that the population that has a passport ready (even in EU) might not be the same as the general population. Take me as an example, I live in NL and most of my friends don’t have passport. I do because I traveled. So that sets me apart already (as a passport holder). The other angle is that those that are more serious about wanting a green card are more likely to review the new DV lottery rules beforehand (and follow your blog), and make the effort to obtain a passport in time. Whereas the population that just checks in on the day (in say late October) to discover that there is a new rule and that they don’t have a passport as required, might be the same people that are more likely to not respond to a win. I mean, I’m not a priori sure that these can be regarded as the same population when it comes to response rate, and as a result we cannot base conclusions on previous year’s response rates. What do you think?
August 29, 2020 at 17:26
By your logic, everyone who entered is “more serious” than in previous years because they have a passport. I’m not sure I entirely agree – but feel free to calculate using that logic. For me – I will wait and see.
August 29, 2020 at 21:28
I just mean that the people that took the effort to get a passport (since a lot of people don’t have one lying around, at least in NL, but I don’t know how this is in every country) are more likely to take the effort to attend interview and actually make the move to the US. Because if it is just a matter of “well, let’s see what happens, cannot hurt to participate” you wouldn’t go to the trouble to obtain a passport (if you don’t have one), and so these people are filtered out this year, whereas other years they would be cases that are more likely to not respond because it wasn’t a big deal to them to begin with.
August 30, 2020 at 13:55
OK I see your point, but I don’t think it will be a significant factor. There are other factors which are significant, including the poor job market and odd political situation that might reduce response rate from selectees – but only time will tell.
August 30, 2020 at 03:44
Hi there! Thank you so much for everything what you are doing! Do you know how long does it take to process ds260 form. If i submitted in June and for 2 mounts already no answer .I know i need to submit document but how and when i dont know. Thank you in advance!
August 30, 2020 at 14:00
The time varies but if they have a lot of DS260s to process, they go in case number order, so if your case number is high you would be a low priority to process.
September 3, 2020 at 00:46
Hi Brit, i filled the 260 form since on 26 jully and till today, out off the confirmation email, i haven’t received any email asking me to submit my document. My case numbre is2021AF36***
Please what should i do?
September 3, 2020 at 03:50
Wait. Your number has months to wait, so there is no need to be rushing documents.
September 3, 2020 at 04:23
THANK YOU
September 3, 2020 at 04:32
Please it is truth the the 2020 and 2021 lottery is ban?
September 3, 2020 at 13:59
There is a ban in place on all immigration, not only DV2020 and DV2021, so there is an impact on the lottery. I have posted many recent articles about that.
September 7, 2020 at 10:52
Hi, my case number is 2021eu151xx and i submited ds 260 in august but i havent recive any email to insert the supporting documents . Do you think i have a chance to be selected for a visa? Thanks
September 8, 2020 at 20:44
patience.
September 9, 2020 at 12:30
Hello Mr Brit
We thank you very much for helping people.
I would like to ask you about me
My case number 17k
From Asia
Dv 2020
Until now I didn’t receive any email from kcc
I submitted my ds 260 on August 2019
All completed
But never received emails from kcc about confirmation and sending documents
Yestaday I talked to kcc by photo and told her if i can send my documents without Waiting their Confirmation email ?
She told me yes you can
Explain please
September 9, 2020 at 13:39
You have left this far too late.
September 9, 2020 at 14:28
Oh maybe They will not Scheduled appointment for interveiw before 30 September 2020
Right sir?
May 15, 2021 at 06:59
hi brit
i am from nepal
my cn is 202200007***
is my case number high?
any chances of getting second letter?
thank you
May 15, 2021 at 15:31
I have seen Nepal case numbers up to around 12000 so far.
However, it is too soon to guess chances.
May 15, 2021 at 20:45
Thank you brit.
I really hope they interview me this year.