Over the last week or so I have been checking daily (sometimes hourly) for the “in Transit” update in CEAC for the September interviews. I normally like to publish the in Transit update to show how many interviews are being scheduled within a given month. As of Friday evening (July 31) no update had happened, so I started extracting the data for the 5 regions. I set the final extraction (EU) running before bedtime on Friday – expecting it would be finished during the early hours. When I checked it on Saturday morning, I saw that the global in Transit update had happened while my extraction was running! So – I did the whole extraction again!
So – the file attached shows the “in Transit” rows (very accurate because almost no embassies would have accepted these cases yet – some exceptions below). It also shows the issued numbers and the progress for the month of July.
So – some observations about the data.
It was a big month for issued cases – over 5600. Some of that activity is probably due to “catch up” from cases not updated during the June technical glitch. However, I am aware of suite a number of people whose status updates from that time are still not correctly reflected in CEAC. So – I still think the issued number (36.5k globally) is somewhat understated.
Africa has progressed well, but I suspect we are missing hundreds of approved visas, or at least cases that have cleared AP, but are waiting to have visas allocated. In order to hit the quota, AF is going to have to have two busy months. As for in Transits, the number shows as 1784 in transit cases, and there are an additional 78 cases updated to ready status by KHT (Khartoum). So – there were 1862 September interviews scheduled for AF region. I had hoped for more interviews, but I know that there were a number of interviews for August rescheduled, so this has taken some of the September capacity. Additionally the backlog took well over 600 of the 1862 interview slots. It is disappointing that so late in the game there were still people who hadn’t submitted their DS260 forms – despite having over a year to have done so. So – given this data it is clear that the low final cutoff was a combination of embassy capacity, backlog cases and the reluctance by KCC to allow for the no shows that are surely happening. For this reason the quota for AF will only be reached by clearing AP cases. This is good news for those people of course, and some cases that would otherwise clear AP and be left without visa slots will find themselves happy this September.
Europe also had another strong month of issuances, despite July being a relatively low month for interviews in EU region. At 15272 the issued number is showing that this will be the highest EU issued number for years – validating the increase in quota I wrote about several months ago. The issued progress is also exactly as I have been predicting for some months. In terms of In transit cases, the EU number is relatively low for EU. No embassies accepted the in Transit cases yet – so the 894 is an accurate number for in Transit cases. 224 of those interviews are from backlog – better than Africa, but still somewhat frustrating. I think we will see August end on around 17500 visas issued in EU. They are without a doubt going to use every last visa by the end of September. That does mean that AP clearing cases in September could have a problem getting visas allocated since the regional quota will be achieved.
Asia has had a particularly large number this month – 936 issued. Whilst some of that could be from the June glitch, it seems clear that the Iranian AP cases are clearing through also. I expect another fast paced month in August. The in Transit cases are obviously low for AS region due to the static VB. I remains to be seen whether the quota will be achieved or not. As I have been saying for months, Iran AP is the key to the region. With just over 2 months to go, KDU (Nepal) shows 2955 issued visas. The Iranian number is usually stated as the AS cases at ABD, ANK, and YRV embassies – that number for issued cases is now 1807. That is an increase of 430 this month. This suggests that Iran could indeed be heading for a 3000 year.
South America is sitting on 1096 issued visas, an increase of 201 visas for the month. They will see a final number pretty close to the 1400 predicted quota – and it is becoming clear why the final VB did not move. Seems like a lot of late activity has been taking place.
Oceana as we know had a nice increase for the final VB. This gave 71 in Transit cases – one of the busiest months of the year. Again, it is clear OC will get above 800. Remember OC has high percentage of AoS cases that don’t show in CEAC, so the final CEAC number may only be around 700.
For those that like to do their own analysis of the data the file is here.
Also if you have benefitted from the information I provide and want to show your appreciation, you can visit this page to donate to the treehouse fund, or just leave my daughter a message. She has decided she wants to have the messages printed inside the treehouse – so please mention your country so she can understand how her father helps people from around the world. I am proud to say my blog has been read in around 200 countries around the world.
CEAC data August 1
August 2, 2015 at 19:00
Thank you very much
Do you think the technological problem still affecting the older approved cases?
August 2, 2015 at 19:26
Well possibly the problem is affecting the CEAC update of the cases…
August 2, 2015 at 19:17
Cool ,thanks Simon?,I am greatful
August 2, 2015 at 19:46
what about my case number 2015AF55000 thx
August 2, 2015 at 19:49
It is too high – you will not get an interview. Try again in DV2017.
August 2, 2015 at 20:00
and 51000?
August 2, 2015 at 20:02
DV2015? Again – that is too high. The final cutoff is 50,000
August 2, 2015 at 20:05
yes 2015 There is no hope?
August 2, 2015 at 20:36
None at all.
August 2, 2015 at 20:09
What a shame for AS, I’m still heartbroken…
August 5, 2015 at 08:30
Me too bro. Such a shame.
August 2, 2015 at 20:34
Hi Brit. I have an interview scheluded for 09. September, I’m from Europe, CN41xxx. Should I not worry that I might not get a visa because they will maybe reach quota till 9. September?
August 2, 2015 at 20:37
No you don’t need to worry.
August 2, 2015 at 20:49
Thanks Brit:)
August 2, 2015 at 20:35
Hi Simon,
Was not very clear for my your wording regarding EU. ” I think we will see August end on around 17500 visas issued in EU. They are without a doubt going to use every last visa.”
What about the August VB, where there was a more than 3000 jump for September interviews. How they are going to receive visas if, as you say, the quota will almost be finished at the end of August?
August 2, 2015 at 20:40
You have misunderstood my comment. I did not say, and I am not saying that visas will be exhausted at the end of August. Scheduled appointments have visa slots allocated. The 3000 jump resulted in <900 interviews (about 1500/1600 people) in September.
August 2, 2015 at 20:47
You say scheduled appointments have visa slots allocated. on the other, you said “That does mean that AP clearing cases in September could have a problem getting visas allocated since the regional quota will be achieved.” If there were visa slots allocated to APs too why should they have a problem getting visas?
August 2, 2015 at 20:49
Have you never seen my explanations about this??
AP cases crossing a month end lose their allocated slot and once the case clears they need a newly allocated slot. That slot either comes from the refused visas at the embassy that month (if enough) or from the pool.
August 2, 2015 at 20:59
no, I have not seen before..
How “pool” is defined in this case?
August 2, 2015 at 21:06
Unallocated visa slots.
Let’s say an embassy gets 50 people scheduled for a given month. They approve 40 of those and refuse 6 and put 4 on AP. At the end of that month they would return 10 visa slots to KCC. Those would go into the pool.
However, if they had 4 selectees clear AP in that same month I believe they could use their allocation to issue those visas. The policy/implementation about that might vary by embassy.
If on the other hand they had no available visa slots during that month, they would have to satisfy the clearing AP cases by getting visas allocated by KCC. That works ok in most months, but gets a bit riskier toward the end of the year. AND I would guess the accounting between KCC and the embassies happens more fluidly during September to attempt to use as many visas as possible.
August 2, 2015 at 21:12
thanks, Simon!
August 2, 2015 at 20:42
Hi Simon, am a winner AF000033** submitted my ds260 form in July and yesterday I got an e-mail from ceac acknowledging receipt but only for my son’s and not for myself. Is that normal. 1. Acknowledge after weeks? Leaving main applicant acknowledgement? Thanks to guide accordingly
August 2, 2015 at 20:45
No it sounds unusual – but give it a couple of days and see if a further email comes – or simply call KCC.
August 2, 2015 at 21:16
Great effort , Thanks
August 2, 2015 at 22:16
Thanks Simon. Am proud of you
August 3, 2015 at 03:21
pls Simon,,,, am a DV2016 selectee,,, but when I track my status at CEac data it says ma case no is invalid,,,, is it normal cox ve submitted ma ds260 n having a low no too,,,thanks
August 3, 2015 at 03:33
Yes it is normal – no 2016 cases are loaded in CEAC yet.
August 3, 2015 at 14:16
Hi Paul
which Website you trying to track your case ?
August 3, 2015 at 21:02
Google ‘ceac data tracker”’
August 5, 2015 at 14:44
is that works only for those who got a scheduled interview or for all has been selected for DV2016 eventhough their Case number still not Current ?
August 5, 2015 at 15:06
For DV2015 cases ALL cases were loaded – scheduled and not scheduled. However, it may be several months before DV2016 data is loaded into CEAC.
August 3, 2015 at 02:25
Dear Sir,
My case number is 2016AS0000188x
When will have interview? Any advice?
Thank you.
August 3, 2015 at 13:41
Probably November.
August 3, 2015 at 03:46
Dear Simon,
My sister is a DV2016 winner from Nepal and her CN is 2016AS4XX. She has already submitted DS260 form on 9th of May. It would be great if you could let me know aroud when would she get the 2NL? How much US$ does she have to show if she does not have a host in United States. Thank you.
August 3, 2015 at 05:27
Interview in October. She would need to show around $10,000
August 3, 2015 at 04:16
Dear Simon,
Does a DV lottery winner need to have his/her petition approved by USCIS to get the DV Visa approved? The US embassy of Nepal requires all the DV lottery selectees to create a profile at http://www.ustraveldocs.com/np and to be able to create a profile at that website, it states “If you are immigrating to the United States, you need to have a petition approved by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).” Please kindlyhelp me out. Thanx alot.
August 3, 2015 at 05:26
I don’t know about that website.
August 3, 2015 at 05:49
Thank you for the promot reply. Does a DV lottery winner needs to have a petition approved by USCIS before being granted the visa?
August 3, 2015 at 13:58
That statement makes no sense in DV terms. Just find a way to register by selecting different options.
August 3, 2015 at 14:35
Awesome…..just did that. It totally made no sense. Thank you for putting me on ease. Cheers.
August 3, 2015 at 06:24
Hallo Brit,
Allow me to ask about how the process take place. 1. You mentioned that for AF there we people who until very late had not filled their DS260. How does this affect them?
2. Does it mean you can have a high number fill it(DS260) early and still miss ? And those who have low number fill it late but still get a chance for interview?
3. How is allocation done ? Do they allocated after presenting the DS260 or prior?
4. Is there any possibility for things to be different for AF in 2016 as compared to 2015?
Thanks for the work you are doing.
August 3, 2015 at 13:57
Assuming the DS260 is processed, people that get current in the same month are scheduled regardless of when they submitted their DS260 or their case number. If a case is scheduled their is a visa allocated to them.
DV2016 has too many selectees for AF region again – so the highest case numbers are at risk.
August 3, 2015 at 07:08
Thank u I will be win one day
August 3, 2015 at 07:19
Once again, kcc let us higher number for dv 2016 not to get an interview. This no show should have been calculated and not included in September interview. Any way we will try again 2017. God is our great
August 3, 2015 at 07:21
What a bad year. KCC let us down , AF CN higher number but closer to cut off
August 3, 2015 at 13:53
If they reach the quotas, they would consider this year a success.
August 3, 2015 at 10:10
when can 2016 selectees check their visa status at ceac
August 3, 2015 at 13:50
Probably not for several months – DV2015 data wasn’t in until the end of December.
August 3, 2015 at 11:08
hi simon
Question :- i am dv winner of nepal and my case number is 2016AS0000120# and first submission of my DS-260 was on may 23 and again i unlock my DS-260 and and second submission is in august-2 so when ill i get second letter n when will b my interview
QUestion 2 :- my wife is 20 years old so it ill create problem during visa n problem in getting visa to my wife?
August 3, 2015 at 13:46
1. Probably October, maybe November.
2. No
August 3, 2015 at 13:20
Hi Brit , l passed mi interview today.i can’t speack well if not I would have taught you aboute it.they kept mi passeport and gave me a date to come back and take it.I thank God. May God help those are waiting for thier interview. Thanks Brit for everry thing.
August 3, 2015 at 13:31
Congratulations Sisi . In which embassy your INTERVIEW and if there special questions
August 3, 2015 at 23:15
Hi Tarek, mi appointement took place at Lomé. She asked me mi age, the date i got mi baccalauréat, have i pass mi exam once ore many times .what i’m doing, the name and the stat of mi sponsor. Dôme thing like that.if i’m married, if i have children , if i have a girl friend. It took us only 2 minuts
August 3, 2015 at 13:41
Congratulations!!
August 3, 2015 at 23:07
Thanks Brit Simon
August 3, 2015 at 14:30
Hi britsimon, the name on my pp start with ze…….and certificate with za……,wat do i do to avoid suspcions.can swearing an affidavit help,please advice, thanx
August 3, 2015 at 14:33
List the incorrect name in the other names used section.
August 3, 2015 at 17:32
please i cant write very well english but i ‘am 2016 winner and i am from egypt my cn is 3xxx ds sumbited in may when can i will recive 2nl thanks
August 3, 2015 at 18:09
Yopu will probably get your 2NL in about 3 weeks time (October interview)
August 3, 2015 at 18:42
HI BRIT DO YOU THINK IF THEY REACH THE QUOTA.. THIS YEAR WILL BE CONSIDERED AS REFERENCE OR MAY BE THEY WILL KEEP THE SAME NUMBERS NEXT YEAR (AFRICA°
August 3, 2015 at 18:44
Each year is different.
August 3, 2015 at 23:14
Hi sir, i am a dv2016 winer, my case number is 00035XXX, i am from africa.please whene can i exept the 2NLD and interview? Thank u a lot for everything that your are doing for us, may good blessed u.
August 4, 2015 at 00:20
https://britsimonsays.com/when-will-i-have-an-interview/
August 3, 2015 at 23:40
Hi Brit. Please, every case must necessary pass from ready to AP before become used. Or some jump from ready to used. Because the CO gave me a date to come back and take mi passport. She told me also that mi documents are correct. But mi case moov from ready to AP. Is’t normal?
August 4, 2015 at 00:21
Lots of cases go to AP for a couple of days before showing issued.
August 4, 2015 at 03:44
My status has changed to Ready since your extract.
August 4, 2015 at 04:02
Good, that is normal!
August 4, 2015 at 09:46
Hi Britsimon! I am DV2015 selectee. We have a successful interview at July, 15 at Moscow. The problem is we have AP status now, because we need to wait medical exams, which will ready at August, 26. Some time to transit our medical exams to embassy is also need. I expect that embassy will receive our med. exams in the first week of september. Could you estimate our chances for visas?
August 4, 2015 at 13:35
There is substantial risk there Boris. It would be MUCH better if the medical gets to the embassy before the end of August.
The risk is that your allocated visa slot has been handed back to KCC at the end of July. So, once you clear AP, Moscow will have to ask for another visa place – and at that point you may, or may not get a slot – since many other cases will be doing the same.
August 4, 2015 at 10:25
Dear Mr.Brit
Can u tell me please does my sponsor in US must have US passport or is it enough to have a green card?And for interview is it enough my master’s degree from the university or I have to bring all my diplomas(bachelor and from high school diploma).
Thank You very much
August 4, 2015 at 13:30
Sponsor with a GC is fine.
Take all your diplomas (some COs ONLY want the high school – even when a higher degree certificate is available).
August 4, 2015 at 10:33
Hi Brit,
thanks for all the time you take to answer us,i was asking must one have a statement showing financial support at the interview? i.e bankstatement
August 4, 2015 at 13:29
At many embassies, yes. Read this.
https://britsimonsays.com/all-about-public-charge-affidavit-of-support-i-134/
August 4, 2015 at 12:11
Thank you very much.
Is there anything called 2nd letter notification?
August 4, 2015 at 13:26
Yes – we call it the 2NL
August 4, 2015 at 14:18
Hy Simon kindly help. I am a 2015 dv winner and scheduled for interviews in September. When I entered the programme we were on separation with my husband and we did not have any legal documents and I put single. Up to now we’re not together and waiting to have our marriage dissolved. My interviews are on 1st September, kindly help what should I do? I’m hoping this can be done before 1st September so that I can have something to present at the interviews.
August 4, 2015 at 14:29
Well there is obviously a risk of denial because you ignored the rules. However, if you get the divorce paperwork by September 1 you may pass. There is nothing more you can do other than what you are already doing.
Good luck – let me know how it goes.
August 4, 2015 at 14:47
Thanks Simon, will do so
August 4, 2015 at 14:38
Hello Brit,
1. Does the timing of filling DS260 affect getting 2nd letter?
For instance, if A filled DS260 in May where B did in july,case number of A is higher than B.
Now who gets the 2nd letter first?or what happens?
2. Are 2016 selectees from Nepal getting their 2nd letter?
Thank You in advance.
August 4, 2015 at 17:29
1. It depends. It doesn’t matter when they submitted the DS260 – the point is whether it is processed or not. If case B has not been processed, it cannot be scheduled. If both cases are processed then the scheduling will observe the case number order BUT if both cases get current in the same month then there is no difference at all.
2. Not yet – no DV2016 2NLs will go out until late this month.
August 4, 2015 at 14:58
Hi Brit, i have written to KCC to change my interview location but they didn’t give me any answer, will that be a cause of losing a visa? be cause i wrote to them three times without getting an answer.
August 4, 2015 at 17:31
Is this for DV2015 or DV2016? If you have not received your 2NL then KCC can change the location if your address has changed.
Give them a call to check.
August 4, 2015 at 17:52
Hi
if i dont have host in USA how much US$ ihave to show for the family 5 members
August 4, 2015 at 18:05
Around $25k to $30k
August 4, 2015 at 17:54
Hi Brit
I am the winner in dv2016 but my number is high AF 56000
I wonder if the reduction in number of winners 84000 is a good sign
Thank you sir for your work
August 4, 2015 at 18:07
I think AF is overselected again, so it is likely there will be some cases cut off. I’m not certain of the highest case number, but yours is one of the highest I have heard. So – there is a risk you might not go current – all you can do is wait and see….
August 4, 2015 at 20:14
Brit good day.I had my interview today and it was successfull.they gave me date to pick my visa I appreciate your bloc.i promise that one day I will appreciate my on way for your child.I notice that any person that listen to your advice will make it at the end.i advce those who are still yet to go for interview to take the advice of this good man very seriosly
August 4, 2015 at 21:38
Congratulations! Good luck for the move!
August 5, 2015 at 03:21
Dear Sir/Madam,
My case number is 2016AS000063xx AND I ‘m from Nepal.
Already I submitted DS-260 .
When will have interview?
Is there any chances to win the lottery, if the case number more??
Thank you.
August 5, 2015 at 04:03
https://britsimonsays.com/when-will-i-have-an-interview/
August 5, 2015 at 07:33
Hi Brit
Can 2016 Winners check thier status from CEAC System ?
August 5, 2015 at 13:36
Not yet – their data is not loaded into the system yet – and may not be for several months
August 5, 2015 at 16:57
Hi Simon, First, I truely apperciate your help and want to say thank you for taking the time to share your knwoledge. second, I am DV lottery winner 2015 and had interview in kuala Lumpur last month. Cause there was not enough information about US embassy in Kuala Lumpur,I analysed the file ceac-data- August 1 based on KLL interview. If you are interested I will be happy to send its results to you. it is just one page in word. I don’t know to which email address should it be sent. Based on my analysis Kuala Lumpur has good responsibility for this duty, although I am not clear yet.
August 5, 2015 at 17:58
I’m happy you were able to use the data for KLL specific data. I can get that any time I need it – so there is no need to send me your file.
August 6, 2015 at 09:02
Hi Brit.where can we see the ceac data update?
August 6, 2015 at 13:37
I publish at month end and mid month.
August 6, 2015 at 14:15
Hello Simon. Regarding your conclusion for AF : “This is good news for those people of course, and some cases that would otherwise clear AP and be left without visa slots will find themselves happy this September” does it also apply to AOS??? I mean as an AF AOS (current in September) am I safer that visas do not get extinguished compared to a EU AOS for example ? Thank you.
August 6, 2015 at 15:32
Possibly safer. For AoS cases it isn’t 100% clear whether they observe country or regional limits. If they do, then yes – AF cases will have a better chance than EU cases.
August 6, 2015 at 16:11
Hi Brit, Mi case steel in AP since August 3 that i passed mi interview. I notice that the CO told me that Mi documents are correct ans she gave a date yo Côme and pic up mi visa.why does Mi case steel in AP? I do not anderstand.what is the problem?
August 6, 2015 at 16:31
It is only 3 days – relax!
August 6, 2015 at 21:05
Hi Brit,
I selected for DV 2016 and my case No. 2016AF43000 and I am in the U.S. According to this year DV2015 my CN shows on JUly. If my CN shows the same for next year on July. Please, what is the best option for me? apply through AOS or CP.
Also, the time enough to adjust of status by USCIS because I know the process may be take more than 8 weeks.
August 7, 2015 at 05:59
AoS has some advantages – and people have become current in September and processed their case in time.
August 7, 2015 at 08:16
Hi Brut. It’s ok! Mi statut move to ussued. Waiting to pick up mi visa.thanks Brit may God Bless you. I wish to do mi own once un USA.
August 7, 2015 at 14:27
Great news – congratulations!
August 8, 2015 at 10:20
Thanks brit. May God bless you
August 7, 2015 at 13:19
Hi Brit? I’m a 2016 Dv selected, and i committed an error when i filled the place of interview location in DS260 where i ticked Kampala_ Uganda as my interview location people from Rwanda do their interview location in Nairobi-Kenya, i wrote to KCC to unlock my DS260 but when they unlocked it the interview location was still locked while other titles were unlocked. And i tried to write to KCC again many times the answer they provide to me is the same. So what can you help me? Will this issue be a cause of not getting a 2NL?
Below is the answer i am given:
Thank you for your inquiry.
Once the DS-260 has been submitted, the Interview Location can only be updated by the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC). Please send your request to [email protected]. You will need to include information that explains why you need the interview location changed.
If you need to change your interview location because your residency has changed, you will need to include the previous address on the original electronic entry and the new address in your email. You will also need to request that KCC unlock your DS-260, so that you can update your application with your new address. (Please note that Post Office Boxes and mailing addresses in care of another person do not justify a change of interview location.)
When inquiring about the status of a Diversity Visa (DV) case, you must provide the Principal Applicant’s full name, complete case number, and date of birth in the following format (MMDDYYYY) as entered on the original entry. Please remember that the Kentucky Consular Center is a document processing facility, and cannot advise you on whether or not you will qualify for a visa. Only a consular officer can make that decision.
August 7, 2015 at 14:10
So their answer explains everything very clearly. What don’t you understand?
August 7, 2015 at 20:33
I don’t understand why they are continuing to tell me writing to KCC to change my interview location, whereby i wrote many times to them and trying to fulfill all the requirement but to get the real response which should show me whether they should relocate me in Nairobi Kenya is still a problem i am wondering and thinking why? thx Mr. Britisimon
August 7, 2015 at 21:28
Why not give them a call…
August 8, 2015 at 06:38
I did and they asked to write to them, the answer is the one i forwarded to you yesterday.
August 8, 2015 at 14:17
Read this link – then call then to confirm they have changed.
https://britsimonsays.com/rescheduling-interviews-in-yemen-update/
August 9, 2015 at 19:44
Hey Brit? After reading your advice i chose to rewrite to KCC, then writing to them many times could not affect any thing concerning the refusal of 2NL?
August 9, 2015 at 20:05
I suggest you PHONE. Emails are just getting you generic nonsense answers
August 8, 2015 at 10:46
Your visa has been printed. Depending on local procedures at the location where you were interviewed, your visa will be mailed or available for pickup soon. If there are further questions, or if we need updated contact information, you will be contacted
August 8, 2015 at 10:53
Sorry for this comment, it’s the messag of ussued statut. I juste want to translate it un french .is why i copie it here to translat it.thanks
August 8, 2015 at 11:12
Hello Brit,
My neighbor was also been selected in 2016 lottery. He filled DS260 including his family details(wife and child).But later he got email that he cannot process further.Do you know what could be the reason behind this?
August 8, 2015 at 14:07
That doesn’t sound accurate. No one gets an email that they cannot process further.
August 8, 2015 at 15:28
Thank you sir, everyone says the same as you said. But he got edited letter when we selectee get after completing DS260(Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration Application Confirmation) as a mail.
Thank you
Your Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration Application was sent to Kentucky Consular Center for review, we are unable to select you in next processes due to various causes. Please try next time. if you are selected in our process you should follow the:
Next Step
All Diversity Visa applicants must:
…………… and rest are the same.
1) Is it a technical problem?
2) Could it be a scam?(the source of a mail seems authentic).
3) Should case numbers contain the number 0 (zero) if it is near?
August 9, 2015 at 05:33
What is his case number with region and year? When did he submit the form?