Time for an update at about the halfway point of April.
There has been a delay in getting the data. The CEAC website was modified in a way that blocked my script for a while. They will sometimes do that if they feel the website is being hit by robots (which is how they see me!) – and so we have to find another way around their measure. A game of cat and mouse. I spent several days investigating and rewriting the process from scratch and got a second version of the extraction tool work. However, my process is slow and thankfully the original developer of the “old” extract script diagnosed the change and fixed the script. So – we are back in business. Also added to this version are two columns to show counts for the at NVC cases, and the in Transit cases.
I have also added some information to show the regional response rate. Just a word about that, the countries such as Egypt cannot be current, so the AF response rate is understated. Likewise, EU region is understated because of the U2 countries having such a low response rate. I have explained those things in this previous post on response rate analysis.
AS you can see KCC are on the pace I have described previously. They issue around 5000 visas a month, this is half a month so 250 visas. Contrary to what it feels like – KCC know what they are doing!
Here is the data
And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.
One more thing. If youi appreciate the work I am doing in keeping you informed and assisting you through the process I would be grateful if you could read this page about the “Treehouse fund” and leave a message or donate.
April 17, 2015 at 20:07
Thank you for this report!
waiting for 2NL for June interviews, but when do you think it will go out??
April 17, 2015 at 20:36
By the end of next week.
April 17, 2015 at 20:20
BriSimon
Really appreciate what you do.
am not going to ask you is my CN 70XXX is safe or not.
but my question is if June visa bulletin appear can you accurately show us percentage of my 70XXX chance.
Best Regard.
April 17, 2015 at 20:45
thank you for your endless effort. according to the data, what do you think next VB for africa?
April 17, 2015 at 21:15
I will publish predictions after the 2NLs go out in 1 week
April 17, 2015 at 20:49
Britsimon how to change 2nl received my e-mail?
April 17, 2015 at 21:04
The 2NL is sent by email – but they have not been sent yet – they will be sent in 1 week
April 17, 2015 at 21:01
Hi Brit , Can you explain me please what means “at NVC cases, in Transit cases”
April 17, 2015 at 21:16
at NVC is the default status before a case is scheduled. In TRansit means KCC sent the case to an embassy but they have not yet acknowledged it.
April 18, 2015 at 13:52
Thanks Brit, i see until now that for SA there are 521 cases numbers at nvc status with cases that goes from case SA01 and can see number over SA 1000 range with the same status, what do you think of this? , because alse numbers with over CN1000 ranges have already got issued from their visas
April 18, 2015 at 16:43
That is normal. They are cases not yet scheduled. They may not have submitted their DS260 at all or they submitted late OR the embassy issues are stopping some interviews taking place.
April 17, 2015 at 21:18
Hello Simon
Concerning Asia :-
There are 920 ‘AP’ .. 83 ‘Intransit’ ,and the response rate is 64%
Could you please explain this a bit more !!!!
(Does it have something to do with Iran’s slow processing ?)
April 17, 2015 at 23:30
AP is mainly Iranian cases. The in transit cases should really increase the response rate – but it is just the embassies being lazy…
April 17, 2015 at 23:46
Is that bad for RoA ?!
April 17, 2015 at 23:47
* I mean that 920 ‘AP’
April 18, 2015 at 01:04
Well – it depends on how fast the get resolved. But if Iran ap cases resolve fast, then yes – that is bad for ROA
April 17, 2015 at 21:25
Thank you Simon, awesome work as usual! I want to ask you, can you make anything from the data regarding the reports about faster Iranian AP progress? The number of APs has dropped a bit, but honestly, from what I heard, I expected a bigger number to be approved. Or maybe the embassies haven’t updated the statuses on CEAC? Thanks to you, I came to understand that Iranian AP clearance is the key to Asia’s progress in the end of the FY, my CN is 108XX.
Regards.
April 17, 2015 at 23:31
I will be looking at Iranian AP over the next few days….
April 17, 2015 at 22:21
hii
what do you think for the vb of july ?
thank you sir
April 17, 2015 at 23:31
I will publish predictions in about 1 week from now.
April 18, 2015 at 04:02
if there is possibility for increase in cutoff number for nepal based on your data?
April 18, 2015 at 05:28
No, not that I can see…
April 18, 2015 at 03:24
Hello Simon,
I really appreciate your work. You mentioned the number of current cases in AF region to be 21xxx. That means there are 18xxx cases left. you also mentioned before that the holes for AF region are 50xxx cases. Since the current cases are 21xxx that means there have been 13xxx holes so fare and therefore 37xxx holes left for the remaining cases. Wouldn’t that give any hope regarding July cut off numbers? I hope the number for AF region will hit 45xxx at least. I badly want my case of 447xx to be current by July.
April 18, 2015 at 05:26
Yes – you are referring to the reduced density of cases at the higher numbers. That is why jumps in the last months can be high – but I will publish my prediction once I have seen the 2NLs.
April 18, 2015 at 03:52
What I meant is that for the AF 34xxx current cases, for each three cases there is one case that represents a hole. For the remaining 55xxx cases, in each 2 cases there is one that represents a hole.
Sincerely,
Sue.
April 18, 2015 at 05:27
Yes – that is about right. The density is around 370 cases per thousand – so it takes a big jump to fill the interview slots.
April 18, 2015 at 04:51
Hello sir than how many visas availablr for nepal
April 18, 2015 at 05:29
No country can take more than 7% of the global visas – so that means about 3500. So far they have 2003 issued.
April 18, 2015 at 12:12
what do you mean by “statistical breakdown” which of nepal is 4991..i didnt get with the term!
April 18, 2015 at 16:33
I don’t know where you saw me say that. It just means statistical analysis…
April 19, 2015 at 09:12
well i didnt mean that u have said abt the statiscal data,i have seen this in one f d vb and i m nt clear with the word “statistical data”,i dnt know what it means so if u cd make me understand it,it would be helpful
April 19, 2015 at 14:29
Without the context I cannot clarify what I meant. Statistical data refers to analysis.
April 18, 2015 at 13:31
What about Iran so far ,mr Simon ?!
April 18, 2015 at 16:42
I am looking at that over the next few days.
April 19, 2015 at 02:40
2003 issued till last vb of 5275 or sth else sir ?
April 19, 2015 at 02:57
2003 issued up to a couple of days ago – but that only counts numbers up to April interviews.
April 18, 2015 at 04:59
Brit,once again,thank you for great analysis
April 18, 2015 at 05:11
Hi Simon,
My case no is AS*** 53**, I’m waiting for my 2nd letter, can u tell me when will i get my 2nd letter,
& when will my interview may be scheduled.
April 18, 2015 at 05:31
You should get your 2NL in a week from now and the interview will be in June.
April 18, 2015 at 06:27
What is the density of Nepal per 1000 up to now…. n what is the final cutoff for Nepal… Mine is 785# …
April 18, 2015 at 06:36
The final cutoff will be around your number…
April 18, 2015 at 07:04
Rookesh..
My case no. is AS****86** from Nepal. Do u think any possibility of getting 2NL.
April 18, 2015 at 15:25
That seems very unlikely at this point.
April 18, 2015 at 07:40
Hi BritSimon
Thanks a lot for the Google sheet of mid-April you’ve just published. It’s very precious indeed. Just to know how the analysis should work, I tried to use the filters as you explained. So, I selected EU, then the FRN Consulate, which means France I suppose. So, then I made a new filter for “Issued”, and I choosed the “Issued” column in order to get the figures. Hope I’me tight until now. So, the Issued column gives me 190 on the top of the chart and 380 at the foot.
Hum! What does those figures mean, and how could I make a projection about the chances of my own CN (EU434xxx)? Sorry to bother you with this question, but I wonder…
April 18, 2015 at 16:26
Edouard,
Forst the Paris consulate is PRS.
Then from what you have said you added a total at the foot of the column. It was double the 190, because you included the 190 at the top of the column, as well as the rows that added up to 190. The total at the top will recalculate accurately – although Googlesheets sometimes takes a few moments to do that.
I get 117 issued for Paris.
As for your case – it has always been somewhat risky – it still is, but the response rate is looking low. That means you might get a chance still. Good luck!!
April 19, 2015 at 15:11
Ah ! Ah! Thanks a lot dear BritSimon! I corrected the manipulation of Google sheet and find also 117 issues for Paris (France), and 121 at the footpage summary with 209 incoming families. Do I have to understand that, say, Paris will at the end get a certain number of issues ( 209 Incoming Families), and the less the number of issue is now, the better my chances are? If Paris is looking for CN 2015EU 302xx by now, maybe there’s a thin chance (1 to 10? 1 to 2? What do you say?) to get the interview with our 2015EU434xx? Hum. Let’s make a sort of calculation: 117 : 209 = 55,98% of the total CN to be issued. 302xx : 434xx = 69,58%are already issued. or 302xx : 55,98 x 100 = 2015EU539xx maximum for Paris, which would mean that my 2015EU434xx would fit? Maybe all those calculations are pure foolish speculations; I’m not a man of figures, but of words… Would you mind to light my lamp in this obscure question? Thanks and kisses to Sofia!
All the best. Edouard
April 19, 2015 at 15:19
LOL Edouard – great number work – but pointless. There is nothing about the country that will affect your process. The number of issued visas in Paris is interesting but just that – interesting, nothing to do with your case. Your case number is your rank order in EU as a whole – and you are in the last few hundred cases. So – it will be a close thing (too close to guess) – what you need is low response rate from EU as a whole….
April 19, 2015 at 15:30
Lolll!!! I was sure to be wrong, don’t worry… I know that the CN is to be taken as a whole for EU… And our CN is the thinest slice on the verge between Welcome to America! and Go back to where you once belong. I know this and take it with great serenity (so do my wife, whose the one who get this number…). But, let’s bet, just for joke. What would you say about the chances of our CN? 50% 10% 1%? Just to have a global idea (of course I know you’re not a psychic…)…
April 19, 2015 at 16:29
I hate doing percentages because it is a bit meaningless. It could go either way – so I guess you could say that is 50/50
April 19, 2015 at 16:37
Fifty fifty? Whouahou! That’s more that I’d hope! (and exactly what I thought, by the way)… So, it’s a bit of chance, after all… Let’s wait and see…
April 19, 2015 at 23:58
Fingers crossed for you!
April 18, 2015 at 09:12
Hello Mr.Brit
According the updated data (the response rate) for Africa , do you think the case number AF80000 will have a chance of interview ?
April 18, 2015 at 16:29
No, I don’t think so.
April 18, 2015 at 12:19
Hi what does the Status Date on the data mean? Is it the date they send out the 2NL? Thanks
April 18, 2015 at 16:33
Last updated date. It could mean the last time they went into the electronic file for any reason at all.
April 18, 2015 at 12:22
Mr brist i hav feelings that for this dv2015 there is a lot small cn for AF…with this update if things progress like this me especially i see a current for august…but anyway i trust dv2015 will hav a happy end….yr point of view mr brist
April 18, 2015 at 16:34
I don’t see current for August – or September….
April 18, 2015 at 16:50
Hello sir,
Respect your work,
Sir I want know that the average number of visa issued from Nepal per 1000. How many cases are left from Nepal. My case number is around 7860….. Any chances or not sir…..
April 18, 2015 at 19:24
So far 16 April 2015 (Nepal DV)
Issued 2033 Visas
AP 74
Read for Interview 474 (Rest of April and May)
Refused 111
April 19, 2015 at 02:40
Up to the latest CEAC file there are 2003 visas issued for Nepal and we should see at least 100 more issued before the month end. Since that covers interviews up to 5275 we could deduce a number of at least 420 per thousand – and I think that could rise to 440/450. You need that number 440. At 440/1000 you just squeeze in. At 450 per thousand, you just miss out. So – it is going to be close….
April 20, 2015 at 03:15
First it was 440/100 now this month as u say 420/100 ..and u r hoping to jump again ..isn’t there any chance to stay 420/1000 or a little less ?
April 20, 2015 at 03:40
I am trying to allow for growth – and depending on the conversation/context the number will vary somewhat. Feel free to wait to the end for an accurate number….
April 20, 2015 at 04:48
Thanks ..hoping for below 430/1000 becz mine is 80** ..let’s see
April 20, 2015 at 14:37
Good luck!
April 18, 2015 at 19:39
Brit, I contacted the KCC and was told my case number is now current for interview processing. What does that mean?
April 19, 2015 at 02:47
It means they are scheduling your interview, you should get your 2NL within a week.
April 18, 2015 at 22:22
Well mr brist..!hav u some reasons why final cut off cant be current?
April 19, 2015 at 02:56
Because there are too many selectees. For Africa for instance there are 58000 selectees and 22000 visas. Some of the first 20000 will be getting married and having children – and those extra places all come out of the 22000. Now, if by some chance AT LEAST 50% did not respond, then there may be a different answer, but that seems unlikely, given the data we can see already.
As you can see in the graphs in the link below. The rate of AF is best measured from 16000 to 20000. Before 16000 Ghana lowers the rate because of agent activity. After 20000, Egypt cutoff lowers the rate – so you can see for a few thousand the response rate at that time was 50% already – I expect the rate to be an absolute minimum of 55% and possibly 60/65%. That is the issue…
https://britsimonsays.com/response-rate-analysis-as-of-march/
April 19, 2015 at 06:56
Hi Brit, I’M from Palestine and I’m software engineer work as WebSphere commerce system administrator.
is it possible to go under AP ? , CN = AS80**
April 19, 2015 at 14:28
Predicting AP is difficult – but hopefully you will avoid it – and your case number is good. Good luck!
April 19, 2015 at 09:19
Hmm thnk mr brist,..and if till june interviews the response still between 50 and 55%”Current”can be possible?When does the online submission of ds260 will be closed? Many people submitted their ds260 but will never go at interview so the important here isnt to follow the évolution of visa issues? If at ceac 30 june update we hav about 11000as visa issue and 55% of response rate we still not to going current? Thank
April 19, 2015 at 14:35
DS260 will not close. Your thoughts are becoming confused – I think you are interested in AF region but you have not told me your case number. Your predictions for AF becoming current will not come true – but for clarification, let us wait to see how the response rate grows when we have new data in about 1 week from now. Then perhaps it will become clear to you.
April 19, 2015 at 09:33
Hi, is there a historical average for the no. Of AoS cases that take up part of the 22000 AF visas? Ie, what is the best case (min number) of visas taken by AoS?
April 19, 2015 at 14:38
Based on previous years, we can expect 800 to 1200 AoS issuances for AF region. Also, the 22000 is the most optimistic estimate based on the government exceeding the 50K limit as they did last year. This means that we will only see around 21000 issuances in the CEAC data at most.
April 19, 2015 at 11:39
Hi,
Can you please explain how the case number is assigned? is it based on luck alone or is there anything to do for getting a higher case number..
April 19, 2015 at 14:40
It is a random assignment.
April 19, 2015 at 13:24
Hello Britsimon,
below AS 7600 from Nepal is secure or not.?do we have to panic ? best on your calculation.
April 19, 2015 at 14:45
You should be OK – not 100% safe, but close.
April 19, 2015 at 20:02
Britsimon, Hi
Could you please tell me how it is the response rate this year comparing to the previous year for Europe.
April 20, 2015 at 00:02
In general I would say lower – but of course there are some DS260s still being processed, so we can’t be sure where the response rate will end.
April 19, 2015 at 20:17
hi sir
when i read this article , noow i undrestand that my case 501XX it’s safe ?
but sir i want to know how % it’s safe ?
and when i will get the interview ?
thank you very muuch sir
best regards
April 20, 2015 at 00:02
100% safe – https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
August/September interview.
April 20, 2015 at 16:33
Hey 🙂
When do you expect the 2NL to be sent out? This week?
In your previous articles you were mentioning an email that is sent out asking you to check the esc website.
For whatever reason when they announced the results of the people selected for DV2015 at first I was selected but they made a mistake so they asked people to double check.
It looks like everybody received an email mentioning that but I never did hopefully a friend of mine told me that so I double checked and here it was.
My question is do you think I’ll receive the email to check online or not? I’m not sure what happened regarding that
Cheers 😉
April 20, 2015 at 17:48
The 2NLs for June interviews will be sent out within the next week.
I think your other point is about those that were mistakenly told they were not winners in the first couple of days of the process.
If you have seen the 1NL (that says you have been selected), and you have followed instructions then you can determine whether you will get an interview or not based on your case number. IF you are scheduled to interview – you then get a 2NL which is an email that says to check the ESC again – and there the 1NL is replaced by the 2NL letter – which contains the appointment details.
April 20, 2015 at 18:04
Hey thx for your answer.
I have the 1NL and now current!
I was just wondering why I did not receive that email to double check last year
Thanks God my friend told to double check!
April 20, 2015 at 22:25
They sent an email in about Fenruary to some people who might have been affected, but you might have already checked by that point.
April 20, 2015 at 22:15
Hi brit
my case number is AF67XXX how chance i have to be current ??
thank you sir .
.
April 20, 2015 at 22:28
YOu still have some chance – we have to wait for a while to be sure….
Good luck.
April 20, 2015 at 22:44
thank you sir and how visas is dilivred for af thank you more
April 21, 2015 at 15:22
What about AF 608×× , is it 100% to be current ?
April 21, 2015 at 17:41
I said 60000 and below is safe – so your number has a very small level of risk….
April 22, 2015 at 21:34
Hi Mohammad, i’m 60900, i hope that we will get our second letter
April 22, 2015 at 01:59
Hello Brit!
Are you done with the second letter analysis? I’m eagerly waiting for the predictions (CN: 745x Nepal)! Thank you.
April 22, 2015 at 02:42
No – because the 2NLs have not yet been sent. Once they are sent, the CEAC system is updated within a few hours and I can extract the data at that point I can then analyze the data and publish my predictions…
April 22, 2015 at 05:19
hi sir when do u think I will get my 2nl cnAF44** completed my ds in November
April 22, 2015 at 06:06
If you mean 4400 to 4499 – then you should get the 2Nl in a few days time….
April 22, 2015 at 05:25
hi.sir when do u think I will get my 2nl cnAF44**
April 22, 2015 at 08:09
Hi Brit, thank for your genius work,
Can we know how many people from CN AF 34150 has filled their DS 260.
And are they some people from CN AF 34150 who has filled thier their DS 260 from APRIL?
April 22, 2015 at 13:42
Until those people are scheduled we don’t know the cases….
April 22, 2015 at 10:16
Hi Brit, we very appriciate your incredible work.
Do you think we get any chance to be current with SA16xx?
April 22, 2015 at 13:44
I don’t know – SA has been strange due to the political situation – both in Cuba and Venezuela. So – too many variables to predict…
April 24, 2015 at 09:36
I am SA1400, don t know if i will be call for interview, bad luck.i guess, Regards.
April 24, 2015 at 11:11
You can only wait and see. Best of luck to you!
April 22, 2015 at 13:02
Hello
Some information for you, BritSimon
There is information on belorussian forum, that those who completed their DS on 05.01.2015 are scheduled on June 16th.
They’ve got the information by e-mail from KCC.
Hope it’s useful for you!
April 22, 2015 at 13:10
By the way, their CN is EU32***
April 22, 2015 at 13:47
Thanks!
April 22, 2015 at 13:47
Yes I have heard of similar cases. I fully expect some January and even February cases to be in the June interviews….
April 22, 2015 at 14:19
So, do you mean that 2NL going out these days??
April 22, 2015 at 14:37
It will go out in the next 2 to 3 days
April 22, 2015 at 14:36
Hi, my number is AS70**. I know you haven’t made predictions for next bulletin yet, but is there any way for Asia to go up by more than 1000 next month? It’s been slowest year so far for Asia 🙁
April 22, 2015 at 14:38
I think you will probably just miss out on June and have an August interview
April 23, 2015 at 04:06
Hello Brit,
I’m starting to get worried about my CN number now (AS11***). Is it risky or do I still have a chance for 2NL? is it too early to predict at this point?
Thank you.
April 23, 2015 at 04:34
Too early to be certain – and yes there is some risk – but you have a good chance…..
April 23, 2015 at 13:17
Good morning Mr,Simon !!
I’ve got irrelevant questions
Concerning DS260 .. The education part ,instead of informing that I have ‘University Diplima’ (Baccalaureat + 2 complete years) I put ‘University Degree’
-Is that gonna cause me any problems ?!
Second question is :
-will MY CASE be put at AP ( I was born in Saudi Arabia, and lived there for quite a while ) ?!
April 23, 2015 at 13:47
1 no issue.
2 I cannot predict that.
April 23, 2015 at 15:53
Thank you !
April 23, 2015 at 13:42
Good day brit
My cn af38***(Cameroon)when can I have my interview?
Thanks
April 23, 2015 at 13:55
Your number may be current fir a July interview, possibly August.
April 23, 2015 at 16:23
Hello.I submitted my ds260 in February and I unlocked it again in april . my cn is af53***. When is it likely to get my 2nl. Does unlocking the form has any effect on processing period. Thanks
April 23, 2015 at 17:33
No, your unlocking won’t affect your date at all. You might squeeze into an August interview – but September is more likely.
April 24, 2015 at 12:22
I’m a little worried or confused about these answers: Because I think that if Af 50000-59000 have their interview in August or September, and everything ends in September, it there’s no chance for us to Af 60000-62000 get an interview.
Thanks
April 24, 2015 at 13:14
The are of risk starts at about 60000. However the last couple of months could see fairly large jumps – 10 to 15k would not be unthinkable. So – it is possible that the final month could span numbers in the 50’s and 60’s
April 23, 2015 at 16:49
waiting for 2nd letter analysis
April 23, 2015 at 17:34
Yup – I am waiting for the 2nd letters!!!
April 23, 2015 at 17:59
Do you think 2NL will be sent out within today or tomorrow?
April 23, 2015 at 20:17
Yes
April 23, 2015 at 17:21
Hi BritSimon..
What can you say about case number EU43xxx? Are there any chances? From what I understand the response rate is low for Europe and also Nigeria was excluded this year. Is this enough for the maximum case number that will get VISA for Europe to increase to 43xxx?
April 23, 2015 at 17:34
Idem for me jjmd EU431xxx, 50% of chance maybe…
April 23, 2015 at 20:18
possibly.
April 23, 2015 at 18:34
i hope for
April 23, 2015 at 20:17
There is still some chance – which as you say depends on a low response rate. I will be updating about the response rate once I see the 2NLs go out.
April 23, 2015 at 17:33
Thanks ,but i pray July interview, am tied of waiting
April 24, 2015 at 07:15
Hi Brits. Please what is the implications/effects of unlocking D’s 260 form to change some intonations.
April 24, 2015 at 11:07
It depends on what you change. Some changes are so minor they cause not impact at all, other changes (like adding a spouse) might require some time for additional processing (adding a spouse might take 3 or 4 weeks).This will only cause a delay if you are about to go current.
April 24, 2015 at 07:58
Hi Brit,
There is something I don’t understand, why is that some numbers like AF 44** have not gotten their 2nl,while numbers like AF 34*** are already current n expecting their 2nl?
April 24, 2015 at 11:10
Because if someone with the AF44XX number you mention had not submitted their DS260 early enough, they could still being processed and will not be scheduled until the DS260 has completed processing. Therefore the higher number (which has been processed) will be scheduled first.
April 24, 2015 at 13:15
I have received the notification email to check updates on ESC, but still nothing update…
I think 2NLs are coming out today .. be ready …
April 24, 2015 at 13:22
I got it now, for June interview
April 24, 2015 at 13:25
Yeah!
April 24, 2015 at 13:25
awesome!
April 24, 2015 at 13:45
OK Brit thank u,but what of my cn af38***,that I submitted my ds260 by November,hope it will not have problem for me to interview in july
April 24, 2015 at 14:54
No that is no issue.