Time for a CEAC extract at the halfway point of May. As we can see, around 2300 visas have been issued – very slightly less than the 5000/month pace. AF seems to be the main reason for that pace with only 795 visas issued since the beginning of the month. I will be watching to see if AF catches up in the next 2 weeks.
EU has had a solid 2 weeks – just over 1000 visas. I am keen to see the CEAC data after the 2NLs go out. That will explain why there was a low increase in the latest VB.
In Asia there is a very obvious increase in pace. The reason for that is Iranian cases. In the last 6 weeks the Iranian issued number has almost doubled. I think Iran is on track now to take 2700 to 3000 visas. That will lead to a lower final number – I now cannot see AS going over 13000.
I will be publishing another CEAC data file once the 2NLs are published and I will publish predictions for the next VB at that time. Right now, I am reluctant to provide “guesses” without seeing the new data.
There are 2 VBs left in the year – so we only have around 6 weeks to find out the final VB numbers for DV2015. Don’t forget though there are 4.5 months of processing left – so although 24867 sounds like they are not to meet the quotas, they are actually pretty much on target. 4.5 months at 5000 per month will get within striking distance of the quota – and the final month of processing is usually VERY active.
Here is the data
CEAC data extract May 15