OK – this is the “Month end” CEAC extract. IN theory it is actually a little less than a full month as some updates could happen tomorrow – but it is “near enough”.
The file shows there is a “miss” on the pace – they should be nearing 5000, and they actually only issued just over 4000! There are two main causes of that,. EU had a small number of interviews scheduled for this month s- whilst the first half of the month was on track for 2000 visas issued, the EU pace died down in the second half of the month. The EU pace dropped by about 500 visas as a result. I suspect that was deliberate on the part of KCC – I believe the 2200 pace was higher than they were wanting. Slowing down the pace makes sure there are still some visa processing activities in September – which is the best use of their resources. With 4 months of processing to go – EU are nicely placed to hit the target.
The other surprise is the slow pace in AF region. The no shows must be a factor in AF. I really hope KCC realize the issue and schedule more interviews in August and September as a result. At current pace AF region is at risk to NOT hit the quota for the region – which could waste some visa places which MANY people would like to use!
Asia pace is picking up as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago. This is entirely consistent with previous years and again I would say AS region is on target.
We can also see that there are almost no “in Transit” cases. AS region had 30 added this week – but that clearly is not the full extent of the 2NLs this month. Come on KCC IT department – what are you playing at!!!!
Here is the data.
May 29, 2015 at 23:42
Any chance of final CN estimates based on these new numbers?
May 30, 2015 at 00:25
NO – I am not predicting finals yet.
May 29, 2015 at 23:50
Ow I’m first comment 😀
May 29, 2015 at 23:52
No new predictions for ASIA ,sir ?!
Does what you predicted on ‘ASIA ESTIMATE’ post still stand ? or at least a little bit of it , like the final cut off will be around 11xxx or something ?!
Thankies!
May 30, 2015 at 00:24
I haven’t worked on predictions yet. 11XXX still has a chance – again – as I have been saying – Iranian cases are the key.
May 29, 2015 at 23:58
Now that the CEAC Data has been updated .. when are you going to give us your predictions about the next VB Mr Brit ?
May 30, 2015 at 00:23
No – the CEAC data is not updated with the 2NLs – but I extracted the data anyway. I might publish some predictions over the weekend, but without the 2NLs it cannot be as accurate.
May 29, 2015 at 23:58
Brit what do u think about AF57000 and up ??
May 30, 2015 at 00:22
Should have a chance still….
May 30, 2015 at 00:00
Hi M.Brit
AF000488** still ave a chance after this result?
May 30, 2015 at 00:22
yes
May 30, 2015 at 00:06
so sir
what do you think about 48XXX?
May 30, 2015 at 00:21
2015? Safe number – just not in August.
May 30, 2015 at 00:08
:'(
May 30, 2015 at 00:08
dear sir there is error in the data link and i can not open it
May 30, 2015 at 00:21
LOts of other people are looking at it already – so I don’t know why you cannot get to the data.
May 30, 2015 at 00:21
I been put in AP (Africa) for two weeks now, I how my case resolved quickly, do you think so BritSimon?
May 30, 2015 at 00:26
AP is very unpredictable – some cases are missing a document – and those tend to resolve quickly – other cases take longer. It is impossible for me to guess.
May 30, 2015 at 00:22
Thanks for the update, Simon! Regarding Asia, are Iranian AP still clearing fast? And do you think 108xx still has a chance?
May 30, 2015 at 00:29
Asia is moving quite fast now – I can see AS pace going over 700 per month. So – 108XX still has a chance.
June 1, 2015 at 13:23
Hi Simon, by “over 700” , do you mean 700 people or 700 numbers? cus with 2 vbs left, 700 per month is not goin to push CN to even 10000 right
June 1, 2015 at 15:15
700 visas issued per month. That is about what they need to do to hit the quota…
May 30, 2015 at 00:26
Any change to EU predicted final CN?
May 30, 2015 at 00:29
I think it is still in the range I predicted long ago.
May 30, 2015 at 00:26
AF 42XXX DO U THINK HAVE CHANCE FOR AUGUST
May 30, 2015 at 00:30
Yes.
May 30, 2015 at 00:40
Hi brit good job but not good news
We are lost this month my case have chance really or no chance
2015Af669×× morroco .
May 30, 2015 at 00:51
As I have said before – I cannot say you are safe, and I cannot say you have no chance… you can only wait and see.
May 30, 2015 at 00:47
Hey Simon, as I understand with the quotas, the slow pace of AF region can affect other regions as well. say if AF takes only 19k; the final result could be something in the 4k7-48k. that will result in diminishing the number of visas taken by the other regions?
May 30, 2015 at 01:06
AF602xx still have a chance please?
May 30, 2015 at 03:59
Maybe – wait and see….
May 30, 2015 at 03:21
thank you sir for the good work you are doing..really worried on what will happen to African region this year. do you thing they will go over AF51XXX for the 3months remaining.
May 30, 2015 at 04:02
Yes I believe they will.
May 30, 2015 at 04:11
Brits,once again thank you for an outstanding job. af201550xxx8 will it called for interview?
May 30, 2015 at 05:42
September interview…..
May 30, 2015 at 04:48
My CN 767XX,dream stops…. :'(
May 30, 2015 at 05:45
I’m sorry.
May 30, 2015 at 05:04
Hello Brit..sir,another visa bulletin for Nepal will publish or not?what will be the maximum and minimum case number for Nepal? 6600 will get second letter or not?
Thank you.
May 30, 2015 at 05:46
6600 will be OK. I can’t see Nepal being stopped before 7000
May 30, 2015 at 05:37
Hi Simon
As per this data i can see the number ov visa issued till now for AF is almost 11500 is this mean there will be more visa should issue which around 8500?? waiting for your opinion please
thyanks
May 30, 2015 at 05:48
Yes – I hope to see AF get another 8500+
May 30, 2015 at 05:52
as per your history study you said usually for affrica there will be around 20 to 22xxx visa will be issue , how and why did you specific this number
thanks
May 30, 2015 at 06:07
https://britsimonsays.com/the-regional-quota-mystery-solved/
May 30, 2015 at 08:47
Salam Mr sudan
could you inbox me on [email protected]
thanks bro.
May 30, 2015 at 15:13
if africa up to 8500 visa the case number 56340 will be safe??
May 30, 2015 at 16:21
I can’t say that is safe – but it has some chance….
May 30, 2015 at 06:23
Hi Simon,
In your opinion how many visas will EU be issued during the coming 4 months?
May 30, 2015 at 07:02
I think we have discussed that before , and no doubt you are checking what I say now against what I said before.
Up to 6500 to 7500 (plus aos of course)
May 30, 2015 at 08:12
So instead of 18.5k now you say 17.5k? why?
May 30, 2015 at 08:13
I mean you were saying at least 18.5, not you say at least 17.5k for the whole year.
May 30, 2015 at 17:10
Why am I not surprised that you have compared my statements. LOLOL – you always “check” me.
OK I am pretty sure we have been through this before – but let’s do it one more time.
DV4Roger calculates the EU quota to be 37.962%. If we are working on 50,000 as the global quota, that percentage is 18,981. At 53,000 that number is 20,119. We hit 53k last year – so we broadly assume that we can again this year – even though the target is supposed to be 50,000. So – I always warn people (and I am sure I have explained that to you) to assume the range could vary by 1000 – i.e. 19k to 20k (broad strokes).
OK – then we know there will be AoS cases. EU will have around 5 to 7% of the visas go to AoS. Perhaps a bit more – so 1000 to 1500 could go to AoS. At 1500 AoS, the effective target for CEAC data cases is 17500 to 18500. It could be a bit more if AoS is less, but again I prefer to work on the minimum number.
We have 11000 already issued – so – 6500 is about the minimum I expect to remain – and I hope to see 7500 more. It could be 8000 – but that would assume the maximum quota AND the minimum AoS.
There is also a question about whether EU can hit the quota based on 53K when AF looks likely to undershoot its quota (effectively meaning 53K won’t happen).
May 30, 2015 at 17:53
Well, I understand your logic. But last year the AOS number was just (18904-18237)=667, which is 3.5%. Where you computed 5-7%?
with 3.5% and minimum 50k visas, EU can have 18.3k visas at least. With 53k and 3.5% the max EU quota could possibly be 19.4k.
We have no info on the year to year fluctuation of AOS portion. In the worst case of 50k and 5% AOS the range for EU will be 18k-19k.
May 30, 2015 at 18:04
AoS varies year to year – and other years have seen higher percentages.
Again – you want to go to the most optimistic numbers – that’s possible – I just would rather stay on the minimum numbers…
May 30, 2015 at 06:35
Any chance for 64000???
May 30, 2015 at 07:02
Some chance…
May 30, 2015 at 07:08
Is still for Egypt maximum CN 28500-29000 ? or more than that
May 30, 2015 at 17:58
I think it is still around that number – wait and see….
May 30, 2015 at 07:47
Hi Simon,
I have a question about your post for EU. They gave near 1700 visas this month, less than you sad (2200). Is it better for high numbers? Maybe more people are going to get their visas? Or am I wrong?
May 30, 2015 at 17:38
I Keep checking your question hoping for an answer as well. Simooooooooon Do You believe that the lower visa issuance for AF region would be of the benefit of high case numbers such as mine of 447xx? Please, what do you think? thanks in advance.
May 30, 2015 at 17:56
Yours is not a high case number – relax – you are safe. Edit – I am assuming AF region – 2015. If in fact yours is EU region – then it is the opposite of safe.
May 30, 2015 at 18:14
Yes – as I mentioned in the article they deliberately pulled back the progress for May by reducing the interviews. We have known this was coming since March. June is back up to 1320 interviews – so will hit over 2000 and July is probably limited.
We have ended May on just over 11,000. June will take us well over 13000, July might take us to 15,000. They might split the remaining visas (2500 to 4000) over the two months – but we don’t know how many of those will go to cases under the existing current VB number. Because they have not yet updated CEAC data with the 2NLs we are in the dark….
May 30, 2015 at 07:53
Af58xxx ihave achance ??
May 30, 2015 at 08:35
Dear simon
6800 is safe or not from Nepal
Plzzz reply <3
May 30, 2015 at 16:54
Safe.
May 30, 2015 at 08:37
Hello Britsimon , I have still not received my 2NL although I have been verbally informed that my interview will be on July 6th .All i seem to see is my first 1NL. I am getting worried that time is running out especially since next week starts the month of June .what should I do?
May 30, 2015 at 16:54
Lots of people are having that same problem. There really isn’t a problem for you, no need to stress. You know the day of your interview – you just don’t know the time on that day. No doubt this will be corrected in plenty of time for you to attend on time.
May 30, 2015 at 08:47
Hit brit af49000 is save
May 30, 2015 at 16:37
Yes I think so.
May 30, 2015 at 08:50
What about 3015as00011500 still has chance?
May 30, 2015 at 12:10
There is still 1000 years to 3015as 😉
May 30, 2015 at 16:37
2015AS115XX still has some chance – wait and see.
May 30, 2015 at 09:09
Hemo
Hit brit AF 51xxx is save
May 30, 2015 at 16:35
I think so yes.
May 30, 2015 at 10:29
Hello sir ,Nepal will get next visa bulletin or not? And what is the meaning of except Nepal? 7300 will get second letter or not?
Thank you in advance.
May 30, 2015 at 16:30
“Except Nepal” – I am getting a lot of questions about that and Asia impact.
There are two reasons to limit a country like this.
1. Because the country has reached an upper limit of 7% of all the visas available. IN this case the limit does not change – it means no more cases above that number. I DO NOT believe this is what has just happened in Nepal.
2. The second reason is to limit the interviews for a country whilst allowing the region to continue. This can be for various reasons and in this case the country number can be increased in subsequent VBs. THis is what I think KCC did.
Why? OK – well we know about the earthquake. The earthquake caused some lost interviews and will be impacting the people of Nepal and the embassy staff. THey may have asked KCC to slow down the Nepal number to limit the number of interviews in KDU for this month.
By doing so, they have (sensibly) allowed slightly faster progression for the rest of Asia to 6850 – meaning cases in other countries can be interviewed.
So – I expect the Nepal number to increase again next month. Nepal WILL hit the 7% limit – but not yet. Not at 6475! Now, will it make 7300 -I am not certain but that number has a good chance.
May 30, 2015 at 10:37
Hello Simon,
Thank you to approach the subject of EU … I followed for several months your items, all good for people clinging to hopes.
This is my case for the DV2015, my number is EU406 **; I think today that the final will be played in its figures. I hope just above.What do you think?
**Peace**
May 30, 2015 at 16:28
Yep it is hard to say exactly where the final number will fall – hopefully it will be above your number!! Good luck!
May 30, 2015 at 12:08
Hello Simon! Please, could you explain to me this number: NVC:11753? I don’t understand it! Thanks in advance!
May 30, 2015 at 16:27
Cases that show “at NVC” are at the beginning status. The 11573 number is the number of cases in this status under 36500.
They are one of three situations.
1. They are not yet current
2. They are current but have not submitted their DS260 yet (meaning they decided not to proceed with the DV win).
3. They have submitted their DS260, but because that is still be processed they have not yet been scheduled.
May 31, 2015 at 11:32
hi brit !!!
do you mean there is a lot of backlog if The 11573 number is the number of cases in this status under 36500.
May 31, 2015 at 15:51
You are mixing two things. Backlog cases are cases that were previously current but their late ds260 submission delayed their interview. The 11573 includes some of those and some that have decided not to proceed with the application.
May 30, 2015 at 12:59
AF704xx still have a chance please?
May 30, 2015 at 15:02
That looks very risky now..
May 30, 2015 at 14:39
britsimon what do you say about my Cn AF 51***
May 30, 2015 at 15:01
September.
May 30, 2015 at 14:40
Hello Brit, what about EU 38xxx ? Is it safe or wait and see? August or September?
May 30, 2015 at 15:00
Should be safe. August most likely
May 30, 2015 at 15:18
Hello Britsimon, I asked a question earlier which u might have not seen.please advise on what I should do.i don’t seem to see anyone else complaining about it so I am worried that I could be the only one .
May 30, 2015 at 17:11
I sleep sometimes. I have now answered your question.
May 30, 2015 at 15:55
BritSimon, I was interviewed on May 27th and I was told that may visa had been approved. I’ ve looked at my case number in the latest CEAC date extract from May 29th. Status of my case is shown as Ready and status day says May 29. Shouldn’t my case been shown as issued and not ready as it is? I registered at usvisa-info.com with my personal information and chose DHL location for visa packet delievery as I’d been instructed and there is still no information about my packet. Is it normal?
May 30, 2015 at 16:21
Some embassies don’t update the CEAC data immediately – don’t worry about it.
June 2, 2015 at 00:10
BritSimon, you were right. I’ve checked again on June 1st and the staus of my visa has finally changed from Ready to Issued.
I’ve also received the mail informing me that US Consular section had submitted my documents to the courier (DHL) and tomorrow (on June 2nd) I’ll be able to go and pick up my visa packet from DHL location. Thanks for answering my question and all the other good things that you did. Cheers..
June 2, 2015 at 03:22
Glad to hear that – good luck!!!
May 30, 2015 at 15:59
dear sir………… my CN is AS113xx from ROA… my dream stop or not??????
May 30, 2015 at 16:18
You still have a chance – wait and see.
May 30, 2015 at 16:50
Simon: It might sound a little outside the scope but is there any region that you see yourself with more expertise at or more confident or like to deal with? I have a feeling like Nepal, Iran, U2s, to some extent Asia and possibly AF interests you a tiny bit more than the rest. Is that true?
May 30, 2015 at 17:16
There are 5 regions. The big three regions take over 95% of the visas between them. So – SA and OC rarely get discussed because they are small, have no limited countries and are straightforward. So that partially explains where the most “interest” is – nothing to do with my personal interest, but based on where most of the number of visas and “complication” with limited countries etc.
I also get most of the questions from AF, AS and EU. Again this is partially to do with the selectee numbers – around half of 2015 selectees (after marriage/baby adjustments) are from AF.
So – nothing about my interests…
May 30, 2015 at 17:45
Dear Britsimon,
To read what you write, it may slow KCC in the AF region level is not a good omen for the final cut-off! But please tell us what is the number 20,000 visas can be reached? Looking at the figures above 10155 is that there is hope?
Also, is that 11753 NVC includes all those we will call until September 30, 2015?
cordially
May 30, 2015 at 18:01
I’m not at all clear of your questions – please re-phrase.
May 30, 2015 at 18:20
By reading what you posted on the database of the ECAC, it is possible that the slow KCC at the AF area is not good for the final cut-off ! But please tell us what is the number 20,000 visas can be achieved for Africa? Looking at the numbers in the table above for AF ussued (10155) is that there is hope?
Also in the picture, is what the 11753 number of NVC includes all those we will call until September 30 2015?
cordially thinking more explécite.
May 30, 2015 at 18:27
Hello Brit ,
I know you are so busy but please i’ve got a problem. I am really confused about this second letter stuff. I am waiting for my interview date scheduled. But i got no news. I am afraid , if i wont get visa …or probably i wont get this secnd letter… My head has become a mess.
okay problem is:
i hav everything in a manner..i’ve got 1 letter, i filled up DS-260 form and submitted, then as per my CN is 2015AS000059** , and now waiting for secnd letter.. but no signs of it… m becoming impatient and afraid.
is there a chance that if my interview is scheduled late june or july…i wont get visa??? plz do reply.
Regards Sir
May 30, 2015 at 19:28
You are worrying about nothing. Relax…
May 31, 2015 at 02:49
Call KCC and they will tell you about your appointment date if the interview date is scheduled. Don’t worry.
May 30, 2015 at 18:32
Hi Brit
Are you going to do predictions, even though CEAC is not updated? Are you missing response rate and backlog info?
May 30, 2015 at 19:23
I might do…
May 30, 2015 at 19:31
Please sir, AS11k still has a good chance?
Thanks!
May 30, 2015 at 21:13
Still a chance, yes….
May 30, 2015 at 23:58
Hello brit mathematically with the remaining visas for august and september can they reach my CN af 578XX can u just do the math for me ?
May 31, 2015 at 16:16
It isn’t a simple math calculation. You must wait and see.
May 30, 2015 at 21:27
Mr Brit , Thank you very much for all help you given us .
I have a question and hope you answer it ,
My brother from yemen and his CN is 2015AS92XX and as you know the US emassy closed in yemen and my brother is stuck cuz all boards are closed and no flights out of yemen . The question is he want to transfer his case to diffrent country and he don’t know to where cuz no flights and he is trying to get a visa to any country that he can get his interview there . Can he transfer his case to jordan and then try to get there or wait ? And what if he transfed his case to jordan but he couldnt go there and instead he went to diffrent country still he able to transfer his case from jordan to country he is in again ?
Thank you
May 30, 2015 at 23:48
I have dealt with rescheduling Yemenis to other embassies. Before he becomes current he needs to decide where he can interview and inform KCC. He must be sure he can get there because he will probably only get current in September, so he will not have time to switch twice (i.e. from one embassy to another).
The September interviews will be scheduled in July (mid July). By that time he must have let KCC know where he can get to – and again – I cannot stree enough – MUST be able to get there and will not be able to switch again. Read the articles below for clear instructions on how to reschedule.
https://britsimonsays.com/dv-interviews-in-yemen-rescheduling/
https://britsimonsays.com/rescheduling-interviews-in-yemen-update/
https://britsimonsays.com/yemeni-selectees-security-update-and-rescheduling/
May 30, 2015 at 21:40
hi sir we are from egypt and our CN is 2016AF00003XXX we submitted ds260 in may so what do thint about 2NL and the interview ?? thank you
May 31, 2015 at 16:18
October most likely.
May 31, 2015 at 00:32
Thank you for answer, so what do you think the best time to tell KCC to transfer his case , cuz right now he is trying to get out of yemen but he don’t know to where , I want to give him time to get out of yemen and then tell KCC to transfer his case to place he is in .
Thank you again 🙂
May 31, 2015 at 16:14
So, tell him to get out of Yemen, and contact KCC before July.
May 31, 2015 at 00:59
I want to know the status of my case af65xxx. And what is the difference between me and the man that never won the DV 2015?
May 31, 2015 at 16:12
You can only wait and see what happens…