I am posting this extract taken today because there has been a large update of cases to “in Transit” between last night and this morning. By the time I was able to extract the file this morning, a number of cases had already been accepted by several embassies. Hats off to embassies in Algiers, Lome, Kinshasha and Bern for you fast work in accepting the cases today. Sadly, you made my analysis a little harder!!!! 🙂
ON the file you can see the in Transit cases remaining per region. Unfortunately the fast work of some embassies means that these numbers are a little understated. The actual in Transit updates were a few hundred higher than these numbers suggest.
So – some observations. The big shock is EU. They had a exceptionally small jump last month to 35700 from 34125. This was a shock because I had expected around 1300 interviews to be scheduled and expected at least 50 or 60% to come from newly current cases (i.e. meaning a lower portion going to backlog cases). That would have meant that the pullback was due to KCC trying to slow down EU and would have suggested a low number of issued cases for July. However, the data tells a different story. Of the 1065 cases showing as in transit (which is less than the actual number of 2NLs due to the fast embassy updates) 75% are “backlog” cases. That tells us 2 things. First, July will add around 2000 issued visas for EU. Second, the backlog cases remain a big problem. Both of those things are bad news for EU high case numbers.
The other interesting point for EU watchers is the pace of issuances in the first few days of June. In less than a full week, EU has issued 536 visas. At that pace they will easily issue 2000+ visas in June and given the July scheduled interviews we see are scheduled, the end of July should hit 15500 visas issued.
Next, for AF region the number of in Transit cases appears to be low. In reality, the fast work of a few embassies has hidden a few hundred 2NLs. However, even adding those in (based on some deductions) it seems AF only got 1500/1600 2NLs this month. I really hoped KCC would schedule more which would have proved they had notice the no show problem and were taking steps to avoid a shortfall in issued visas. This file shows they have not reacted that way – which is disheartening. We could end up with a cutoff AND a shortfall – which would be a cruel waste of visa places. We can only hope that this will force them to have a big jump for AF in the final VB.
Asia, OC and SA are progressing as expected – no big revelations.
It’s late at night, I’m tired and I won’t be working on predictions tonight. I might update my guesstimates once I have looked at the data more carefully.
Here is the data.