I am posting this extract taken today because there has been a large update of cases to “in Transit” between last night and this morning. By the time I was able to extract the file this morning, a number of cases had already been accepted by several embassies. Hats off to embassies in Algiers, Lome, Kinshasha and Bern for you fast work in accepting the cases today. Sadly, you made my analysis a little harder!!!! 🙂
ON the file you can see the in Transit cases remaining per region. Unfortunately the fast work of some embassies means that these numbers are a little understated. The actual in Transit updates were a few hundred higher than these numbers suggest.
So – some observations. The big shock is EU. They had a exceptionally small jump last month to 35700 from 34125. This was a shock because I had expected around 1300 interviews to be scheduled and expected at least 50 or 60% to come from newly current cases (i.e. meaning a lower portion going to backlog cases). That would have meant that the pullback was due to KCC trying to slow down EU and would have suggested a low number of issued cases for July. However, the data tells a different story. Of the 1065 cases showing as in transit (which is less than the actual number of 2NLs due to the fast embassy updates) 75% are “backlog” cases. That tells us 2 things. First, July will add around 2000 issued visas for EU. Second, the backlog cases remain a big problem. Both of those things are bad news for EU high case numbers.
The other interesting point for EU watchers is the pace of issuances in the first few days of June. In less than a full week, EU has issued 536 visas. At that pace they will easily issue 2000+ visas in June and given the July scheduled interviews we see are scheduled, the end of July should hit 15500 visas issued.
Next, for AF region the number of in Transit cases appears to be low. In reality, the fast work of a few embassies has hidden a few hundred 2NLs. However, even adding those in (based on some deductions) it seems AF only got 1500/1600 2NLs this month. I really hoped KCC would schedule more which would have proved they had notice the no show problem and were taking steps to avoid a shortfall in issued visas. This file shows they have not reacted that way – which is disheartening. We could end up with a cutoff AND a shortfall – which would be a cruel waste of visa places. We can only hope that this will force them to have a big jump for AF in the final VB.
Asia, OC and SA are progressing as expected – no big revelations.
It’s late at night, I’m tired and I won’t be working on predictions tonight. I might update my guesstimates once I have looked at the data more carefully.
Here is the data.
June 6, 2015 at 15:14
That mean my cn Af508xx isnot safe. Kcc is worrying me.
June 6, 2015 at 15:28
my case nbr is AF593xx should i pass to a plan B ??
June 6, 2015 at 16:09
No. You should wait and see….
June 6, 2015 at 15:42
Hello this is my case number 57*** i can have my interview or is risky???
June 6, 2015 at 16:08
You have a chance…
June 6, 2015 at 17:19
I asked my question but it isnot answer. Do I stay have a chance to be interview af508xxx or plan B.
June 6, 2015 at 19:58
You have a good chance
June 6, 2015 at 17:20
hi brit …hope your are fine..
earlier you told me there are 8378(plus family members) case numbers between 61050-36500.
when i’m looking at the board im seeing 10402 AT NVC CASE.does it mean that there are 10402(withouh familt members) case between 36500-98799???
if AT NVC CASE reduces for this month it’s still there any chance for my case to get an interview???
thank for your response!!
June 6, 2015 at 19:57
I don’t always extract the full numbers up to 87999 – it takes a long time and those cases don’t change – so check the file from January 1. I think there are around 17k cases above 36500.
June 8, 2015 at 16:28
hi brit tahns for response!!!
so can i still keep hoping with AF610xx???
thanks a lot
June 8, 2015 at 18:39
Of course you can keep hoping…
June 6, 2015 at 17:28
i wanted to say 36500-89799!!!
it’s there any possibility to modify our message when we’re typing wrongly??
you should think about it!!(just a suggestion)
June 6, 2015 at 17:33
Hello BritSimon how do you thing are my chances, My CN is SA 0000148X? Thank you
June 6, 2015 at 19:55
You still have a good chance, you can only wait and see.
June 6, 2015 at 18:57
Dear Brit, my case number is 2016AS000063**.at the time of original entry I had no children and now my wife is pregnant.( 6 weeks).Moreover I have not completed the DS260 form yet.is there any part in the form for me to mention that or should I do anything extra for this matter?
Thanks for your ever help
June 6, 2015 at 19:55
Until the child is born there is nothing to do. Given your case number you will have the child by the time you interview – so, submit your DS260s for your wife and yourself and as soon as the child is born, you can unlock your forms to include the newborn. You would also need to obtain a passport, birth cert and have medicals done before the interview.
June 7, 2015 at 16:46
Dear Brit, thanks for your great help.
June 6, 2015 at 20:29
Hi BritSimon can you explain me a little bit the CEAC table ( for SA cases) and how do your project in works bases in the table? Thank you
June 6, 2015 at 21:16
The CEAC database is the status of each case. I extract that data and make it available so we can see visa numbers issued, refused and so on. What do you not understand?
June 6, 2015 at 21:48
What I don’t understand at CEAC table is for example for may 2015 CN cut off number for SA where 1075. Where I can see all those cases in the table?
June 6, 2015 at 22:37
The CEAC data has tabs – you can see all the cases there.
June 6, 2015 at 21:23
Hi Brit, has your opinion on AF528XX changed, or does it still have a good chance?
June 6, 2015 at 22:32
No change
June 6, 2015 at 22:08
My CN AF63583 and i think there is no chance to be current….
June 6, 2015 at 22:16
cn af 553** is it risky?
June 6, 2015 at 22:38
Slightly…
June 6, 2015 at 22:23
Hello M.BritSimon
AF62*** still got a little chance or not at all ?
Thank you
June 6, 2015 at 22:38
A little chance still.
June 6, 2015 at 22:48
hi brit
so 2015AF00067XXX is impossible to be current ??
June 6, 2015 at 22:51
Ulikely, not impossible.
June 6, 2015 at 23:48
Hello Sir Brit Simon,
Firstly, On behalf of all the winners, I would like to thank you for your great working, keep on doing, we really appreciate it.
My case number is 2015AF493++, do you think my interview will be scheduled in September ?
I hope my CN is still safe.
we love you.
June 7, 2015 at 02:45
Yes very safe and yes to September
June 7, 2015 at 05:35
Sir, what is your idea about AS1090*(from Sri Lanka).is it safe number?..do you think my interview will be scheduled in September?
June 7, 2015 at 06:14
It is not “safe” but has a good chance yes.
June 7, 2015 at 09:43
hi britsimon. please what about AF599xx!! still have a little chance ? thanks
June 7, 2015 at 16:47
Yes
June 7, 2015 at 10:54
Hi, Simon
about me my cn is 68xxx but I am sur that I will receive number for USA. Iam now in africa but I live already in USA. TRUE STORY
June 7, 2015 at 16:44
Your number is quite high for DV2015.
June 7, 2015 at 11:04
Hello brit, my case number is 58555 still have a chance?
June 7, 2015 at 16:44
Yes
June 7, 2015 at 13:44
Hi brit any hope for AF63xxx
June 7, 2015 at 16:42
Some hope. You would need to see a highish number in the next VB
June 7, 2015 at 14:18
Hello Simon,
What is the latest DS 260 submission that you know got processed or received 2nd letter? Any lucky cases of March or April submissions DS 260? Just curious.
June 7, 2015 at 16:41
Some (but not all) March cases got in, whilst some February ones did not.
June 7, 2015 at 16:03
What’s about 2015af501xx. Save and when?
June 7, 2015 at 16:39
Safe. September
June 7, 2015 at 17:14
Hi Sir,
AF42XXX, possibility to go current for the next VB ?
Thanks!
June 7, 2015 at 17:16
Possibility yes. If not, then September.
June 7, 2015 at 19:09
Hello Britsimon. Do you think I have a chance. My CN is 138X SA? Thank you.
June 7, 2015 at 19:19
Yes, you have a good chance
June 9, 2015 at 18:41
oh im SA13**! where are you from Ana Maria?
June 7, 2015 at 19:25
Thank you.:-)
June 7, 2015 at 21:58
Hi brit you say that 15k for thë 2 next VB so thë max in septembre is af52xxx and my cn is af52758 so it’s not safe????
June 7, 2015 at 22:24
No I said 150 in each of the 2 months was not possible. Relax.
June 7, 2015 at 22:34
I’m already in the US on an F-1 Visa. My CN is AF004400X. Do I have a chance to start my AOS in August? Given that AOS usually takes at least 2 months, do I run a risk of having my case closed/abandoned half way by the end of sept?
June 8, 2015 at 01:58
You should take advantage of the early filing policy. If you don’t know what that is, you have not prepared well enough – so get over and read the spreadsheet linked from the first post of this thread:-
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-aos-only.7/
June 8, 2015 at 07:47
“To adjust to legal permanent resident status through the Diversity Visa program, you must file Form I-485 with your local USCIS Office. However, you must wait until an immigrant visa number is immediately available to file Form I-485, otherwise your application will be rejected. To see if an immigrant visa number is immediately available, check the current Department of State Visa Bulletin at”
The above paragraph is extracted directly from the 1NL. Aren’t they aware of that early filing memo? with this in mind, isn’t it risky to still go ahead and file early?
June 8, 2015 at 15:26
Your number is borderline for an August or September current. Particularly if it is September you will not have time to process if you do not file early. Last year, we had September AoS cases go through fine by using early filing. I filed early. Lots of people do. You can ignore the 1NL – IF you follow the instructions on the link I gave you.
June 7, 2015 at 23:51
Hi!
Im quiting my job in a 4 mounths, should i fill my current job in the DS260 and explain that ill quit in 4 months or no?
June 8, 2015 at 01:54
Just fill it in with your current job.
June 8, 2015 at 12:01
Okey, after i quit i won’t have to unlock it and change my position right?
June 8, 2015 at 13:51
You could do, but it isn’t a big deal. Once you get a new job you could update it.
June 8, 2015 at 01:59
Do you believe it is possible to reach the 16XX in SA? I am really worry, I can’t sleep at night 🙁
June 8, 2015 at 02:00
That sounds a little high, given where we are now. All you can do is wait and see….
June 8, 2015 at 02:16
Any thing positive for AS125##
June 8, 2015 at 15:31
You can only wait and hope. The density ot that number range is very low, so you still have a chance.
June 8, 2015 at 22:57
what is the meaning of density in layman’s terms lol………is low density good? or bad? lol sorry i was never good at math
June 9, 2015 at 00:54
Density refers to how many cases there are per 1000 cases numbers. EXplanation here:-
https://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
June 8, 2015 at 03:19
Thank You Brit!
But this is paragraph in quotes from my 1st NL scares me.
“To adjust to legal permanent resident status through the Diversity Visa program, you must file Form I-485 with your local USCIS Office. However, you must wait until an immigrant visa number is immediately available to file Form I-485, otherwise your application will be rejected”
You think they are not aware of the early filing memo? I’m afraid to take any risk whatsoever.
June 8, 2015 at 15:30
If you don’t do as I explained you can kiss your win goodbye.
June 8, 2015 at 06:12
where is your estimates for AF?
June 8, 2015 at 08:03
how about a case number 7600 Nepal is there still a chance or hope?
June 8, 2015 at 15:23
Mr Simon ,any news about Iran APs ?!?
I’m so concerned , ROA.
June 8, 2015 at 18:41
Thank You Brit
What’s about 2015 AF 518xx. Save and when?
June 8, 2015 at 19:01
Safe. September.
June 9, 2015 at 00:51
Hello Simon,
When are they gona publish the next vb??
June 9, 2015 at 00:56
probably by the end of this week.
June 9, 2015 at 03:39
any hope for 7600 nepal
June 9, 2015 at 11:00
Goodmorning simon, if kcc next update fall b/w af39xxx and af44xxx, it means the final vb will not reach af66xxx? my cn af65xxx have chance, risky or very risky?
June 9, 2015 at 14:04
As you say, in a few days (perhaps even today) we will see the next VB. Clearly a high number on that VB would give you more chance…. so let’s wait and see this next VB.
June 9, 2015 at 11:08
Tk you number risky but you still have chance just wait for vb this week and see……
June 9, 2015 at 14:28
Thank You Brit
What’s about 2015 AF 6009X. Save or not?
June 9, 2015 at 15:24
Not safe, but has a chance still.
June 9, 2015 at 15:28
There is hope Arrive to 70*** !! or No Plz
June 9, 2015 at 15:32
Very little chance indeed.
June 9, 2015 at 16:20
Hi Brit, do you know when the new visa bulletin will be available?
June 9, 2015 at 20:36
Soon I hope – but I am waiting, just as you are….
June 9, 2015 at 18:23
what about 689xxx?any chance if the number goes up?thx
June 9, 2015 at 19:44
“Wait and see”
June 9, 2015 at 21:58
I do not really understand rand thing all this, but what jaimerai know is that even number of AF00001 has AF50.000 will surely called
June 9, 2015 at 22:02
HI BRITI NOW 532XX HAVE SOME RSQUE THANKS SO MUCH.
June 9, 2015 at 22:38
Hopefully that is a safe number.
June 9, 2015 at 22:59
MERCI I HOPE SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
June 10, 2015 at 08:43
Any chance for case no 8900 at Nepal ?
June 10, 2015 at 15:31
No. I’m sorry.
June 10, 2015 at 09:55
THANKS FOR THE ANSWER, BUT I DON’T THINK MY QUESTION HAS BEING ANSWER.
I’M ASKING YOU THAT IF JUNE UPDATE DON’T GO ABOVE AF44XXX, IT MEANS THAT KCC WILL NOT REACH UP TO AF66XXX FOR THIS 2015 PROGRAM? AND I ALSO WANT TO KNOW IF MY CASE# AF65XXX HAVE CHANCE, RISKY OR VERY RISKY?
June 10, 2015 at 15:30
So now we have 44250 as the number – and your number is still risky – you can only wait and see….
June 10, 2015 at 10:02
SIMON, ON YOUR CHART I SEE REFUSE VISA 1640 AP 1245. WHAT WILL KCC DO WITH THOSE REFUSE VISA? I KNOW THAT YOU CAN’T PREDICT ON THE VISA THAT ARE UNDER AP.
June 10, 2015 at 15:29
Refused numbers are returned to the pool of visas – that is already built in to the VB progress.
June 10, 2015 at 10:38
Hi..what about SA 18xx?
June 10, 2015 at 15:28
That number is risky. Hard to imagine a jump of 400 to 500 in the final month when it has taken 11 months to get to 1350.