This is the last CEAC data file before the DV2015 ends. The next file I produce will be after the end of the month – and will be the last snapshot of the year.
So – todays file tells us what has happened so in the previous 50 weeks, and what might happen in the next 2 weeks!
The most obvious comment is how close each region is getting to their quotas. Let me highlight a couple of points about that.
First we must realize that the CEAC data never includes results for cases that did Adjustment of Status (AoS). Those are cases processed for people already living in the USA – so their cases appear as “non responses” in the CEAC file (at NVC). This will add about 3% to 5% for most regions (10% to 15% for OC).
OK – so that being said, how will we know when we are about to run out of visas. Well – we all know the number on the original letters is a global target of 50,000. However, the actual limit is higher than that. Last year for instance 52,342 DV visas were issued. The reason the number is allowed to be higher than 50k is because the original allocation to DV lottery was 55,000, and later (about 15 years ago) UP TO 5000 of those were reserved for a program called NACARA. In reality, that program does not use all the 5000, so DV is allowed to go over 50k by some margin.
So – the global limit of visas should be around 50 to 53k. Then there is a quota per region that divides the total global allocation into the regions. That is calculated according to a formula, and a clever and patient man by the name of Roger (DV4Roger – a DV2015 selectee) worked out the formula. His analysis came out with the following percentage splits.
AF – 41.7208%
EU – 37.8353%
AS – 16.0617%
SA – 2.7802%
OC – 1.5876%
If we assume a target of 50,000 to 53,000 (arbitrarily) this would give the following numbers as a target range along with an allowance for AoS cases to show what we would see in CEAC. So – look at the purple columns and think of that as a target range.
So – as we look at the numbers we can see that EU, SA and OC are already in their target range. That means we could start to see people who are clearing AP in those three regions being told there are no more visas available – hopefully this will be rare – but it could happen. Most September scheduled interviews would have happened by now – so we are down to the last few visas being issued….
AF and AS still have some visas available. AP clearances in those two regions over the next two weeks should have a good chance to get a visa.
In AF region it is clear, as I have mentioned previously, that the target is not going to be met. It really is a great shame – they could have gone higher with their last 2 or 3 visa bulletins – the no shows have resulted in wasted visas. Should we blame KCC for not realizing the issue, perhaps, but they can’t tell who is going to show up for their appointment and who won’t – so they hold the place open.
Here is the data.