I’m sooooo excited!!! (Sad really than a grown man gets excited over data – but hey ho….).
USCIS publish a bunch of statistics and I use that as input to my processes. However, for entries we have been using slightly old data – 2013 entries. Now they have published the 2014 and 2015 entries. That is awesome because I have had to make assumptions that derivative rates have not changed etc and it will help people understand why one country or another got more or less selectees and we can recalculate the winning rates per region/country.
So where is all this data – here! Enjoy!
DV lottery entries new data released
March 14, 2015 at 20:33
Hi. Does that have a relationship with the final cut off? Thanks in advance.
March 14, 2015 at 20:39
From this data we can be more accurate of per country derivative rates – and confirm why limited countries were limited, and possibly find where the Nigerians have hidden.
March 14, 2015 at 20:40
well, that’s great britsimon. does it mean, that ur predictions are gonna change for regions? for e.g Eu?
March 15, 2015 at 02:52
No – this does not directly affect the predictions in that way.
March 14, 2015 at 21:00
Can you please explain me for Egypt
Will appreciate it
March 14, 2015 at 21:18
With that you can assume how many cases for each country?
I’m waiting and excited for your next analysis!
March 14, 2015 at 21:40
hi simon. having this Data and coming 2nd letter, u r so resourceful to publish accurate analysis about dv 2015 final cut-offs and maybe next visa bulletins
March 14, 2015 at 21:43
do countries’ winning rates have a direct correlation to the rank of their selected CN numbers in the order that they are allocated? or is that a completely random/automated process? in that, do countries with higher rates essentially get first pick at the cherry, and then working its way down in descending order?
March 14, 2015 at 21:56
Read my holes theory post to understand that better. Magnifying glass is the search function.
March 14, 2015 at 23:30
What about the development of Egypt now, is there hope?
March 15, 2015 at 01:00
Hi Simon, now that we have this new data, could U pls tell me if I have some hope?. I am from Liberia and my CN is AF7429#.
March 15, 2015 at 01:36
The new data has not affected that at all. You still have a chance – but quite a small chance.
March 15, 2015 at 01:39
Thank U so much for your helpful and swift response. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
March 15, 2015 at 03:29
The law says that countries who have sent over 50,000 immigrants for the past 5 years are ineligible to dv lottery, then why the hell is Nepal still eligible? 800000 entrants wtf?? I feel sorry for the rest of Asia for being slowed down by Nepal.
Do you think they’ll still allow nepal to enter dv17?
March 15, 2015 at 05:50
Anyone is free to enter – so lots of people in Nepal do so…
I don’t know when Nepal will hit the 50k
March 15, 2015 at 10:25
If nepal was ineligible, the monthly vn progress for Asia would be much faster wouldn’t it?
March 15, 2015 at 23:22
Yes – but that is not the lottery you entered… and there is a pace anyway.
March 15, 2015 at 06:37
Holy Smokes! Ghana has more entries than any other country! 12% of entries come from Ghana! Duplicate entries???
March 15, 2015 at 23:17
Lots of agents – who ruin everyones chances.
March 15, 2015 at 08:16
Hi Britsimon may you help me to know which side is like someone which live in a foreign country,he will be counted from his origin country or where he lives ?
March 15, 2015 at 23:20
You are charged to where you were born, not where you live.
March 15, 2015 at 15:10
Hi Simon, I just did some calculations from this entry data and found out that the entries of Africa are just short of almost 571k from 2014, because few countries compensated the entries of Nigeria (1M 694K) with an increase in their entries from last Dv14 like Ghana with almost (500k), Sierra Leone (214k), Sudan & Liberia (184k), Guinea & Cameroon (98k), Benin (73k) and Congo (54k). Also there were no significant decrease in most of the other African countries. So is the 571k decrease in entries will still play a big impact on the holes theory and there for on the final Cut-off? Thanks in advance.
March 15, 2015 at 23:25
I’ll be posting analysis over the next few days. I have already calculated the holes, but the new data will help me make a lot more things clear.
March 16, 2015 at 13:39
How does that 98k number affect Cameroon? Is it positively or negatively?pls explain to me.
March 15, 2015 at 19:36
Yeah!! thank you Brit 😎
March 15, 2015 at 19:43
I have calculated Morocco’s winning rate and found out it’s 2.04 %.. meaning in every 50 entrants, only one person gets selected. I always left the rate on 1.72.
Thanks for the post 🙂
March 15, 2015 at 23:26
That is probably the rate for AF as a whole – now calculate one of the limited countries…. – and you can see the impact.
March 16, 2015 at 19:56
That is brilliant !
March 16, 2015 at 09:04
A lot more people in Spain participated in 2014 and 2015 than in 2013 and I assume this will continue in 2016. Does that mean there is a smaller chance of winning for Spanish people?
Many thanks 🙂
March 16, 2015 at 14:13
No not at all, the winning chances are per region, so more Spanish entries will mean more Spanish selectees! Tell your amigos!
March 17, 2015 at 09:57
That’s great! I really really really want this to happen. Fingers crossed!
Thanks BritSimon!
March 17, 2015 at 18:45
Hello the family!!! Further to disappointment and to the stress caused by the visa bulletin of April and May, 2015, I decided to call a friend (Diviste on 2002) an ASSISTANT DIRECTOR OF A MILITARY HOSPITAL TEXAS which in a relation in the KCC. This is what he told me: ” April and May represents the months of vacation(notices to leave) for most part of the agents of the KCC. So, there are no numbers of produced visa. It is what justifies the numbers of April and May. This vacation(notices to leave) comes to an end from June then you will see; thing will go very fast. You would do better to get ready your documents because the pressure will be in your camp “. These words reassured me and I was anxious to share him(it) with you. THANK YOU.
March 17, 2015 at 18:49
That is absurd, and not at all the reason for the VB progress.
March 18, 2015 at 17:51
Hello Mr.BritSimon
I want to ask about my status please .
I have submitted the Form DS-260 in middle of February, then I asked to unlock the form, I resubmitted on 16 of March.The changes I did is in date of study. I have emailed KCC to ask about my status, and today I received this ”Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing” My case number is lower than 100 in Asia .
March 18, 2015 at 18:17
The “pending embassy review” message means your forms are fully processed now. You may get scheduled for May interview, or if not, it will be June.
March 18, 2015 at 18:40
Thank you for your prompt and kind reply.
March 18, 2015 at 21:28
I posted ds_260 and took the number confirmatory but did not receive any e-mail from kcc. Is there a problem in that. thanks
March 18, 2015 at 21:36
Not necessarily. It depends whether you are current (case number) and when you submitted the DS260.
March 29, 2015 at 21:17
Is there a relation between the distribution of entries by regions with the distribution of selectees and of visas?
March 29, 2015 at 22:06
Regions have quotas for visas, which is based on the total population in the countries that make up the regions and according to a formula established for the lottery.
There are no limits places on entries per country, so a country with more entries will get more selectees.