This post is intended to inform the DV2018 selectees with information about the lottery. It will be a long post, so take your time and read it well if you want to understand the lottery process a little better.
As expected, the DV2018 selectee numbers have been published in the latest visa bulletin. So – if you are interested, you can see how many people have been selected in each country. The selectee number includes derivatives (family) who are included on the principal selectees case. The global and regional quotas (the 50,000 Green Cards available) also includes derivatives – so a family of 5 takes 5 out of the 50,000.
In the visa bulletin we have several important pieces of information. First the number of entries – nearly 15 million entries (23 million people including family). That is the highest entry count I have seen, so if you were selected you have been very lucky. Then we have the selectee counts per country and the total for global selectees – 115,968. So – 115,968 people were selected from 23 million people – an average of 1 in 200.
Countries do not get individual quotas either in the draw, or as cases are approved. So – some countries have less selectees because there were a lower number of entries. The draw is random within each region – entries from some countries are not given preference over other countries. There is however a rule that states that no single country can take more than 7% of the global visa count. So that means no one country can receive more than (approximately) 3500 visas. That is a MAXIMUM number, not an allocation. Realistically, the only countries that have a likely chance of hitting that limit is Nepal and Egypt. Both those countries have high selectee counts AND a high approval rate. Other countries could have just as many selectees, but will not have such a high approval rate. It is for that reason that Nepal and Egypt will probably have a limit in place in the final VB of DV2017 – because at some point, KCC predict the 7% limit will be hit, so they stop inviting selectees to interview. I do not know where that number will end for DV2017 or DV2018 – so if anyone asks, they will get the “wait and see” answer.
Some countries have been “limited” in the draw already. So for example, Ghana has probably had far more than 1.5 million entries – probably over 2 million people including family members. However we can see they “only” received 3549 selectees (whereas they should have had around 10,000 selectees). Other countries show the same effect. These countries are Ghana, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nepal, Iran, Russia, Uzbekistan and Ukraine, and most likely Liberia and Cameroon. This shows that the draw process is limiting the number of cases or selectees that any one country can receive. The limit is around 4500 selectees, or about 3000 distinct cases. Countries limited in this way have all their selectees concentrated in lower case numbers. At some point the selection process hits the 4500selectee/3000 cases limit and stops selecting people from those countries. So – it will not be a surprise to find that, for example Ghana cases are all in the first 15,000/20000 case numbers. Once the country is stopped, the remaining cases for that country create “holes” which is a case number being skipped. I have explained this in several posts before – but this post explains the draw process and holes well. You will notice in that article that disqualified cases also create holes.
Where can I see the selectee numbers?
The visa bulletin that gives the per country selectee count can be seen here.
The regional selectee count is as follows (with DV2017 / DV2016 numbers for comparison).
AF – 49392 (38500 / 45034)
EU – 41706 (28500 / 27011)
AS – 15997 (13499 / 15002)
OC – 3863 (1450 / 1500)
SA – 4995 (1954 / 3000)
NA – 15
Total – 115,968
Why are there more selectees than visas available?
The government have determined to make around 50,000 Green Cards available through this program, and while they are not obliged to issue them all, they want to issue as many as possible. They know they have to select more people than they have spaces. This is because of the following:
- Some people won’t respond or pursue their opportunity.
- Some will submit their forms but not attend the interview.
- Some will attend the interview but be refused.
- Some will attend the interview and be placed on AP, but then not be able to get cleared before the end of the year.
So – KCC over select, having decided that is the best way to use all the available Green Cards. However, estimating how many “extra people” to select is difficult. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don’t. This year, I believe they have selected too many people – and that means some people will miss out).
Why are there more selectees this year?
Each year USCIS (represented by KCC) decide how many selectees to announce. We have seen wild fluctuations in how many people they invite. Recent years have been like this:
- DV2013 – 105k
- DV2014 – 140k
- DV2015 – 125k (First year of electronic application form DS260)
- DV2016 – 91k
- DV2017 – 83k (plus second draw I estimate around 10k)
- DV2018 – 116k
The “ideal” number of selectees seems to be about 100k. However, we seem to be on a 2 year swing pattern. Two years the over select, then two years they under select and so on. DV2018 is a return to over selection after two calm years. Over selected years are stressful, because some people have to wait the whole year wondering whether they will get interviewed or not. I understand that feeling – I was in DV2014 – the most over selected year I know of. So – there was a lot of nervousness for many people and I remember that feeling well.
Will DV2018 go current?
No. Not all regions at least, and possibly no regions.
When we see current for a region it means there are more than enough visas remaining for remaining cases. So – everyone in a region that is current, can get an interview (except if the country is numerically stopped in the VB (Visa Bulletin) as has been the case in some years).
DV2016 and DV2017 went current because they had a low number of selectees. DV2018 is clearly different, and more like DV2015. I am certain that some regions cannot go current. I haven’t had time to work on numbers and I prefer to not predict final numbers these days, but some regions are obviously over selected. OC for instance is massively over selected – with case numbers up to OC26XX. In DV2015 the highest OC case number to get interviewed was 1489. So – there is obviously many OC cases that won’t be getting a chance for an interview.
SA also looks over selected, even with the additional increase in quota.
Other regions are less easy to judge – partly because I don’t have the highest case numbers. Over the next few days I will use previous years data to try and confirm the highest case numbers selected – but at this point all I can say is that there must be some risk for AS, EU and AF regions highest case numbers. Now – I know I am going to be flooded by people asking “am I safe” – so let me say this. There is NO POINT in worrying or asking me if you are safe if your numbers are below these numbers.
AF45XXX (Egypt may have a cutoff)
EU37XXX (UPDATE after CEAC data available – this number seems to high to be safe. Later analysis shows the “risk zone” could start as early as 33XXX)
AS8XXX (Nepal could be considered safe below AS7000)
OC13XX
SA15XX
Those numbers are conservative numbers that I consider safe without much risk at all. It does not mean the cutoffs won’t be higher than those numbers, but if your number is above those numbers you might be at some risk. However, I don’t have a crystal ball and whilst I can calculate rough numbers based on historical information, I am not in a position to give accurate predictions. So – if you ask me for predictions, I will simply answer “wait and see”. If you ask me multiple times, you will find that I ignore you. So please – try and respect my time by reading the information I am providing here and accept that we have a long time (about 1 year) before we know how DV2018 will end.
As best as I can tell, through people reporting their case numbers to me and calculation based on this years selectee counts the maximum case numbers for selectees this year are in these ranges.
AF – Reported early 50,000 range, but I calculated the highest numbers should be at least 60,000.
EU – Reported early 40,000 range, but I calculated the highest numbers should be around 45000.
AS – Reported 13XXX – and that seems a bit low for the selectee numbers released.
OC – Reported 26XX – and that seems about right for the selectee numbers released.
SA – Reported 25XX, but I calculated the highest numbers should be around 3000.
Will there be a second draw in DV2018?
No – as we can now see, they have more than enough selectees for each region – so there is no point in having a second draw.
So how many Green Cards can be given out to each region?
The DV program has 55,000 visas allocated each year. However, the NACARA program is given up to 5,000 of those visas, so we actually can see a number of visas awarded between 50,000 and 55,000. In practice a busy year will see as many as 52,000 to 53,000. DV2017 won’t even see that many awarded since there are not enough selectees in that year.
The visas are allocated to each region proportionally, based on a complex formula which uses populations in each region. So – the regions can receive the following percentages. The percentage would apply to the final global number – so you can apply these percentages to 50,000, and in the end they may give slightly more in each region if the global total goes slightly above 50,000 (by using some of the visas allocated to NACARA).
AF – 43.15%
EU – 36.63%
OC – 1.58%
AS – 15.61%
SA – 3.01%
This year a new country was made eligible – Ecuador in SA region. That means SA have had a small increase in available quota. Comparing quotas to DV2015, AF has slightly higher in DV2018, EU and AS are slightly reduced and OC is unchanged.
Differences that could affect this year.
DV2017 Photos.
Every year the instructions say to use a photo less than 6 months old. However in previous years, disqualification on the grounds of an old photo was rare because it was hard to p[rove the photo was old. However, in DV2018 instruction there was a new instruction that said “Submitting the same photograph that was submitted with last year’s entry (DV-2017) will result in disqualification.” Of course some people choose to not read the instructions or do read them but ignore them. So – I know we have lots of selectees that have re-used DV2017 photos. Theoretically, those entries could have been disqualified before results were announced, but they weren’t. So – there could be a directive to the embassies to disqualify those case, OR they might leave that up to the discretion of the embassy/CO. At this point, we have no idea how that will be handled – the COs may disqualify cases for that reason, or they may just ignore that instruction. But if cases are disqualified for that reason that could mean higher case numbers get a chance.
The Trump “Administration”
Trump has already clumsily tried to interfere with immigration matters since his term began. The “travel bans” are currently suspended by the courts, but the government could appeal, they might win (I don’t think so, but possible) or they could try to implement some other sort of ban. We just don’t know. Trying to predict what Trump will do is like trying to predict what a donkey will do next. The “donkey” probably has no idea himself. However, he could have issued orders to immigration officials to be more stringent in background checks. That would slow processing, particularly on AP cases. So – this is a factor that could affect some regions (AF and AS).
Agents.
There has been a staggering increase in entries in recent years. DV2015 had 14 million entries and derivatives, and by DV2018 that number has risen to 24 million. I know agents have been more active in several countries and have been registering people in huge numbers. In some countries the agents are honest and provide a helpful service with no ill intention. Nepal is like that. BUT in more countries agents are ruining the lottery process. They register as many people as possible, often with little regard for accuracy in the eDV entry. They then blackmail winners by withholding the winning case number details unless the person agrees to pay a large additional fee or agrees to a sham marriage. Agents like that are scumbags. I advise everyone to steer clear of them. However, when agents are involved the chances of refusal are higher. In Ghana for instance around 80% of cases will be refused at interview. This is because agents gave bad information on the entry, then people try and produce fake documents and so on. So – Ghanaian agents swamp the lottery with over 2 million entries and then reduce the chances of approval through their involvement. So – since there are so many more entries this year, I am guessing that is agent involvement and I expect some countries to experience increased refusal rates.
Why do I often answer “read the instructions”?
I get a lot of questions from people on information they should know if they had read the official instructions on how to process the case. So – when I say “read the instructions” – it means read the link provided in the 1NL – which is also here.
Other points to note:
Much of what I write is speculation based on little information. The only way to be certain of the future is to wait until the future arrives!
Some terms I may use:
Derivative rate – how many people per case number. Varies by country and region, but world average is 1.6 – meaning each case accounts for the principal winner and 0.6 of a derivative.
Derivative growth rate – Winners get married and have children during the year. That increases the derivative rate, again varies by country and region, but this can mean a significant increase in applicants. More explanation about derivative rate and growth rate here.
Density – Because of the limited countries, some countries have an increasing number of “holes” in upper number ranges. For instance, in AF region, there will only be 250 actual cases per 1000 case numbers at the highest number ranges (50,000 and above). So – the cases are less “dense”. More explanation about density here.
Non response rate – People that never submit their DS260. More explanation about response rate here.
No shows – people that submit their DS260 but don’t show up for interview.
AP – Administrative Processing. A period of waiting after interview when additional checks are made or missing documents obtained.
OK – hope that helps! If you don’t understand something above – please go back and read everything again slowly. There is LOTS of information here to understand, so it takes some time to sink in.
June 11, 2017 at 17:57
Hi Brit. Thanks so much for your insight. One quick question. If for example SA has 5000 selectees, why would you calculate the highest number to be 3000 instead of 5000?
Thanks.
June 11, 2017 at 18:15
Re-read the article.
June 11, 2017 at 18:15
Thanks for all this information! Do you know how the case numbers are allocated within each region? For example, OC selectees include Australia, New Zealand, Fiji etc. Are the case numbers randomly allocated across these countries to make up the 3600 or so selectees? If so, how does each country reach its quota for interviews and visas?
June 12, 2017 at 01:58
As the article says, there is no quota per country. The draw process is random and at regional level.
June 12, 2017 at 17:30
According to the published statistics, there seems to be historical consistency across the number of Greencards issued to each country in the region. How would this happen without a quota per country?
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
June 12, 2017 at 18:31
The comparative number of entries per country is relatively consistent year to year, so the selectees chosen are relatively consistent and the awarded visas are relatively consistent. No mystery, no country quotas.
June 12, 2017 at 23:16
At the risk of badgering you… If OC case numbers are allocated consecutively but randomly, then potentially Fiji and New Zealand could pick up the lower case numbers or on the flip side, Australia could do the same. If the VB did not go current in that year, then there would be large historial discrepancies in Greencards issued to counties in that region and not as consistent as it has been. Sorry, Am I missing something? I’m in OC 2018 and around 1500. Thanks for your patience and great work!!
June 12, 2017 at 23:59
Yes you are missing something. The draw process has *nothing* to do with country. Really.
The entries are grouped by region. Each region is processed exactly as I am about to describe with some made up numbers.
OC probably has around 50,000 entries (80,000 people including derivatives).
All 50,000 get a case number assigned randomly from 1 to 50,000.
Because it is random, and not according to country, entries from each country are spread out over the entire 50,000.
Then the program starts taking the winners from case number 1. That entry was for 5 people (Mum, Dad and 3 kids). is 5 out of the 3800. The next case is 1 single person and so on. Eventually they have about 4000 people on about 2500 cases – from OC1 to OC2500. The process then goes through and disqualifies people based on multiple entries or bad photos and so on. OC loses around 7% that way – spread randomly throughout the 2500. So now we have about 3700 people with a max case number of 2500.
KCC process received DS260’s and then invite selectees to interview in case number order, increasing the number of selectees in the Visa Bulletin by increasing the number over the year. At some point (around May/June probably) they predict they have enough selectees to meet the regional quota (which is about 800 visas, including derivatives).
So – if you are case number 1500, you have around 1395 cases in front of you, but not all of them will respond, some will get refused and so on. Once KCC have enough cases in the hopper, you will see the VB number doesn’t increase – and that is the limit met. You will probably wait around a full year from now to see whether that number is above or below your number.
June 11, 2017 at 18:24
Thank you so much!
June 11, 2017 at 18:57
This is really a holistic view for all points related , thnx for ur time doing this.
Am i safe 😀
June 11, 2017 at 19:07
LOL
June 16, 2017 at 22:01
Hello Simon, I really appreciate your work. You always keep us updated. I would like to ask you a question. I currently completed my ds260 3 weeks ago and my problem is with my addres. I am a student at the university,and declared my current addres,but my friends and I will change this house because we dont like the price of the rent. I also wrote my parents addres in my hometown. Since i have an approximately high case number, 28XXX EU and it will take about a year for the 2NL to come, i am afraid from this house changing that I will do in august. Will this be a problem? Will I receive the 2NL in any of my addreses? Thank you so much,and sorry if I’ve made any mistake while writing,but I cant speak englisht fluently.
June 20, 2017 at 03:38
2nd letter usually comes in a email address you have provided.
June 11, 2017 at 19:32
Highly appreciated dear. ?
June 11, 2017 at 19:50
Great job
June 11, 2017 at 20:11
A wonderful analysis Simon. Am a DV 2016 and I’m in the U.S. but i still follow you. You helped me a great deal.
June 11, 2017 at 20:31
I think there is no second in this year because alot of people selected
June 12, 2017 at 00:23
Correct.
June 11, 2017 at 20:37
Thank you so much Mr, u did a great job
June 11, 2017 at 20:52
Hello Brit,
really appreaciate your work. I have a small issue – you have written “nearly 15 million entries (23 million people including family)” then “So – 115,968 people were selected from 23 million people – an average of 1 in 200”.
I wonder if it is correct. Based on my limited knowledge, I would say that it was 115,968 people from 15 million entries – additional 8 million was kids who actually don’t take part in lottery (if a family of 5 take part in a lottery they would be counted as 2 entries). Then the global chances would be about 1 out of 130.
Please let me know if I am wrong. I have to admit that DV maths is very absorbing topic.
Regards,
Happy dv2018 winner from Europe (CN under 10k) 🙂
June 12, 2017 at 00:21
As long as you are consistent, the math works. The 116k includes derivatives at a derivative rate of around 1.6. So – there are 72k winning entries out of 15 million entries – so the math is still 1 in 200 either way (wither you use winning entries out of total entries or winning people out of total people). What you did was take winning people number out of entries, so your number is wrong.
June 11, 2017 at 22:10
May Allah reward u for ur great support.
Highly appreciated
June 11, 2017 at 23:34
Hallo Is this true? was there a second DV 2018 Lottery random selection in top of the one carried out last May ? September ?
June 12, 2017 at 00:15
There was a second draw for DV2017. It won’t happen for DV2018.
June 12, 2017 at 02:23
DV 2017
First Draw > 03/05/2016
Second Draw > 10/09/2016
Third Draw > ???? is this true
June 12, 2017 at 02:42
No. There were only two draws.
June 12, 2017 at 01:54
Thank you for your valuable contribution
June 12, 2017 at 01:58
Im around 2018AS00012xxx and still happy & hopeful as per your prediction “around some 00013xxx”. Thanks again
June 12, 2017 at 02:00
You have misunderstood. I am not predicting 13XXX will get current – I am saying that is the maximum cased assigned. Your case has some risk.
June 12, 2017 at 02:04
Anyway, as a man who won at first ever try, I still believe Im OK. Thanks Brit.
June 12, 2017 at 03:47
Thanks so Much for all your important information that will help others get through their process successfully
June 12, 2017 at 06:49
Dear Brit, I have a question that many selectees would be benefited. As you have mentioned for AS 15.61% out of selectees or so on will get Green Card. It is about some 8000+. But there are over 15000 selectees. What would be the reason for cutting down such a large number of selectees. When we consider “holes”, Deaths, Refusals what would be the result? Thanks
June 12, 2017 at 14:21
The result could be that some of the 16k selectees won’t get an interview. Like I said – they have OVER selected.
June 12, 2017 at 09:37
Hello,
I don’t think that old photo could be a general and systematic disqualifying reason, if they disqualify everyone who submitted an old pic, they will not have the time to schedule all the interviews in 1 year. It will be a huge loss of time either for embassies and selectees.
However, I think you’re right when you say that they might leave that up to the discretion of the embassy/CO.
June 12, 2017 at 09:54
Helloo , u mentioned that 2017 has lower selectees number , does that means there’s extra visas ?!
Just trying to predicte my situation
Egypt no. 36XXX
June 12, 2017 at 14:10
Extra visas for whom? Be specific and always add your year/region to your number.
June 12, 2017 at 14:13
I mean that there will be no cutouts ?! For egypt specifically…
June 12, 2017 at 14:26
Wait and see.
June 12, 2017 at 11:14
Hi Simon
I’m DV2018 winner and my number is extremely high. I’m very pessimistic about to be invited to an interview after reading that article, my question is:
1. Can I register to DV2019?
2. Can it disqualify me in any way?
Thanks
June 12, 2017 at 14:09
1. Yes
2. No
June 12, 2017 at 11:19
Amazing post! Thank you so much Brit! Quick question out of curiosity. Does the NACARA program benefit SA only or all regions? I explain myself. NACARA visas were originally meant for Nicaragua, Cuba, etc right? Are these countries given visas outside of the original quota giving SA a special advantage (fewere applicats on the run), or is it simply that the program provides 5000 more spots for the DV globally?
June 12, 2017 at 14:07
The NACARA visas are TAKEN FROM the DV program. If Unused by NACARA, they are part of the global available number.
June 12, 2017 at 11:39
i want to see my 2018 dv result
June 12, 2017 at 14:07
So check it.
June 12, 2017 at 14:58
Hello Simon,
DV2017 Asia region selectee was 13499 and it went current. And seems like every year, Asia region selectee is around 14kto 16k and all CN went current except for years 2014 and 2015, when they selected over 20k selectees.
1. DV2018 AS selectee were 16k so I was wondering what is your insight on DV2018 AS region not going current.
2. There are significantly more selectees in other regions compared to last year, does that mean they give less allotment for AS region for DV2018?
Thank you for your reply in advance.
June 12, 2017 at 17:19
1. 16k is a lot more than 13500 – especially when you realize Nepal and Iran are limited anyway. But we will see.
2. The selectee count does not alter the quotas in any way. The small reduction in AS quota is due to the inclusion of Caracas in SA region which changes to the formulas.
June 12, 2017 at 22:55
Dear Brit, what happen when Nepal & Iran are limited?
June 13, 2017 at 00:00
At a certain point in the draw, there are no more winners taken from Nepal or Iran.
June 13, 2017 at 01:33
Dear Brit, I can understand it. What I’m asking is about what you have mentioned above, “//16k is a lot more than 13500 – especially when you realize Nepal and Iran are limited anyway. // It is true that srlectees from Nepal & Iran have risks. But what about those from other countries, when Iran & nepal have limits. Thanks.
June 13, 2017 at 01:36
Nepal and Iran are limited in the number of selectees. So that is the point. Iran has additional risk of AP that lasts a long time.
June 13, 2017 at 09:36
Dear Brit, sorry to trouble you again regarding this matter. What Im asking is not about the risk of selectees from Iran & Nepal but the rest. According to the VB, there are 4500 selectees form Iran and 4097 from Nepal. In the future process there will be a cut off for these two countries. So, therefor would it be a chance for selectees from other countries to move forward.? And also there would be many APs for Iran, Iraq, Afgan and many countries too. Will this be a reason for Middle East selectees to be less?
June 13, 2017 at 13:46
I can’t predict the future. We will see.
June 13, 2017 at 03:31
Thank you for your answer, Simon.
I see they overselected this year and Iran and Nepal being limited makes slower in process.
Do you think it’s too late to revise my DS260 now in terms of my embassy interview dates won’t make it to next year October if my case number went current around August or September. My CN is 115xx.
Also I’m planning to travel US in November and I was wondering if I should unlock my DS260 until I return to my home country Japan.
June 13, 2017 at 03:46
You will have to wait a year anyway – so it doesn’t matter if you revise your DS260 now.
June 12, 2017 at 17:28
Hi,
My husband is a DV2018-SA winner and I submitted our DS-260 forms on May 9th. Do you believe KCC already processed them? How can I check if they were processed or in what status are? Does KCC send a notification email once processed?
Thank you so much! You’ve been of great help.
June 12, 2017 at 18:35
No the forms won’t be finished processing yet, but hhy do you care whether the forms are processed or not? You can’t get an interview yet anyway (and the timing of the interview will depend on your case number).
June 12, 2017 at 18:52
To confirm I filled the forms correctly, that everything went great and we’re done with the first step so I can wait patiently for the next few months until the interview. So, is there any way I can check the forms status? Does KCC send an email notifying it has been processed?
Thanks
June 12, 2017 at 19:00
No they don’t notify you. They don’t check that you filled in the forms correctly – that is up to you. They don’t tell you results of the background checks. They don’t refuse any cases. ALL of this just waits for the interview at the embassy.
June 12, 2017 at 19:08
That’s a shame.
Thank you so much again!
June 12, 2017 at 22:13
Thank you for this great website, my case number is EU15XXX . I am planning to submit my DS Form this week. Do you think I am late? Can I get interview if I submit the form this week?
EU – 41706 (28500 / 27011) : Does this mean that this year case number: EU15XXX will be interviewed earlier than last year? like Oct – Nov?
June 12, 2017 at 22:37
Late, but not too late.
Your late submission does probably mean you couldn’t get an October or perhaps even a November interview – even IF – that number goes current earlier than last year.
So – best advice – wait and see.
June 12, 2017 at 22:52
do you think I will get an interview date around Jan/Feb if I submit my DS260 form this week? Hope you are not saying I don’t have any chance to get an interview at this moment.
I live in US. I also got selected for H1B visa this year, can I go to my home country to get my H1B stamp in October before my interview? assuming I submitted DS260 form…
Do you think it is better for me to AOS at this moment?
June 13, 2017 at 00:03
I started my previous reply by saying “Late, but not too late. “. So I already said you were not too late.
You can get your H1, yes – and you might be able to go via AOS. If you do go via AOS, your DS260 submission date does not affect your I-485 submission date. So – AOS might be faster.
June 15, 2017 at 17:55
thanks, do you think the processing time takes shorter for the people who live in US?
June 15, 2017 at 20:57
Please re-read my replies.
DS260 processing is not required for AOS cases, but it is not faster for CP cases where the selectee lives in the USA.
June 13, 2017 at 04:03
Very informative and helpful post !. I am DV2018 selectee and CN is AS8xxx . After reading this I am hoping for the best and planning for the worst ! lol Thanks though 😀
June 13, 2017 at 07:30
But I have my degree attestation with me and a confirmation of degree attestations issued by the university registrar, can I use any of them or I shld just put on my ds260 form that my highest qualification is Advance levels certificates, this my CN is AF 00003048,thks waiting for ur advice
June 13, 2017 at 07:32
50000*0.3663=18315 visas for eu
If 41706 includes more than 56.08% holes, visas will be enough for all selected. Is it correct? Real? Based on previous years statistic, what was rate of issued visas/selectee numbers for eu? Assume all countries in eu have the same %.
June 13, 2017 at 13:59
No, your numbers are not correct. 41706 is all selectees (including family) – so NONE of those are holes – they are real cases. That is about 26,000 cases, spread over the full range of case numbers (lower density as case number increases). Some will not respond. Some will be denied. I don’t have the approval stats to hand right now – but it varies by country, so it is not a simple calculation.
June 13, 2017 at 14:38
Dear BritSimon, I have a question for you, I’m one of the selectee of DV-2018 from nepal. I submitted my DS-260 form in may 29th and my case number is around 200, When will 2NL will come ??
Thanks in advance for your helpful response.
June 13, 2017 at 14:39
britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/
June 17, 2017 at 08:46
October 2017. Now wait. 🙂
June 13, 2017 at 16:00
Hello Brit, i have submitted the Ds 260 but in filling the forms for the children my husband signed for them but i am the principal applicant. will it cause any problem please? that is on the forms for the kids he answered yes to the question” did any one assist you in fillling out this application?” and he provided his details is it a problem? thanks
June 13, 2017 at 16:17
No problem.
June 13, 2017 at 20:15
Hi mr simon, i have a little question, can i go to the us 4 months after the delivery of my visa ? could that cause a matter with the medical visit or the criminal record if i take 4 months to go ? Thank you
June 14, 2017 at 01:24
The visa will have an expiry date on it, which is actually 6 months after the medical date. You must use the visa by that date.
June 14, 2017 at 08:17
DV 2018, OC16XX here. I’m very hopeful…what do u think Mr Simons?
June 14, 2017 at 14:00
I think you should be able to know my answer without asking…
June 14, 2017 at 12:47
Hello BritSimon, thank you for your posts, very usefull. I have a question: My CN is EU38*** and i have submited DS-260 in 23/05/2017; is there any possibility to be interviewed before May 2018?
June 14, 2017 at 13:34
No.
June 14, 2017 at 14:38
Thank you for providing this info. Your blog has giving me a great deal of insight on this process and has helped me set my expectations. Thanks again!
June 14, 2017 at 20:08
hello from what I read from your blog. my AF28XXXX dv 2018 . I should be expecting my interview in November or December.
thanks brit
June 15, 2017 at 11:23
Hi Brit, again thanks for your amaizing work, my CN is DV2018SA000022XX, do you think is possible to get an interview at the very end?
June 15, 2017 at 14:00
“Wait and see”
June 15, 2017 at 17:25
Hola Rafael, según la estimación de Brit, creo que podrían llegar a entrevistar hasta SA2500. Tu número es alto, pero ten confianza. Yo también espero me llamen, aunque mi número es más bajo que el tuyo.
June 15, 2017 at 12:08
please how to i know my visa is ready after my interview,which site should i check
June 15, 2017 at 13:57
ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx
June 15, 2017 at 16:24
Hi Brit, one of my derivatives for dv2018 win does not hold any valid ID documents from the ountry of origin (EU region). He has a dual citizenship. Can I use his CA passport filling out his DS260? I used his EU citizenship for the lottery submission. Thank you.
June 15, 2017 at 21:00
I don’t know what you mean by “CA passport”.
June 15, 2017 at 21:16
Canadian
June 15, 2017 at 23:46
Then no problem to use either passport.
June 15, 2017 at 21:08
Hi Brit,
You said that the DV2018 looks like DV2014 and DV2015 especially DV2015, and also the highest CN would be able to about 45k according to your calculation. Because of that, i am wodering what the highest CNs were for EU region in DV2014 and DV2015. Thank you for your answer.
June 15, 2017 at 21:16
https://britsimonsays.com/historical-visa-bulletin-numbers/
June 15, 2017 at 21:53
I wait another opportunity and I wish to get a chance.
thanks
June 16, 2017 at 15:29
Hi Brit
I just wanted to Thank you for all your efforts and help that you have done to me
I finally got my Visa, I look forward to Travel to the USA next month
but there was a mistake made on my sealed envelope that i have to show on the airport when i arrive in the USA. The mistake is on top of the paper of that sealed enveloper that has my A-Number and other personal details. which they put my city of born wrong, they used my parent’s ones instead of putting mine but we were all born in the same country but different cities. For example they put Kindu instead of putting Kinshasa. Kindu is where my parents were born but i was born in Kinshasa
1. is this going to cause me a problem on my arrival in the USA?
2. I was given a paper at the embassy which says i have to pay for SSC before i travel to the USA. is it really necessary i pay before i travel or i can still pay it when i arrive in the US.
3. Is there anything that i have to do before my trip to the US?
June 16, 2017 at 17:43
1. No
2. Either before or after travel.
3. No
June 17, 2017 at 23:16
Hi Brit,
Jst a question, the principal applicant already filled his DS260 and also included the kids name to travel with him. After reading comments from this blog he found out that only legally adopted kids can be offered green card so he doesn’t fill their DS260 Forms.
1) Will this affect his application?
2) If ds260 was submited in May when can be the interview?
Thank you so much Brit for keeping us informed and guidance about DV Lottery.
June 18, 2017 at 01:22
1. Probably not.
2. britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/
June 18, 2017 at 14:32
hi sir,
I won dv 2018 & submitted ds260. It is now ok.
I completed 12 yeas full time course of the Department of Education. (elementary and secondary )
1). my problem is ……. i am not pass 3 subject , i pass only one subject twice……is it risk for my visa.
2). My case no is AS48**
If ds260 was submited in May second week. when can be the interview?
June 18, 2017 at 15:57
1. Yes, depending on the requirement for your embassy, that education may not be enough.
2. In 2018. Wait and see.
June 18, 2017 at 18:50
hi sir
i completed the two year diploma course of………
“child devolopment and day care center” &
I have a 7 years experience for freschool teacher & i have got most cetificets for
child devolopment and day care center.(I have worked for a privet preschool)
and I have a 2 years experience for computer operator & i have got most cetificets for
“computer diploma” & computer based accounting” (I have worked for a goverment office)
I am now private self teacher…..for preschool & frimry class.
that is my…….work experience……job.
DEAR SIR….
MY High School Education , IF may not be enough….(I completed 12 yeas full time course of the Department of Education. (elementary and secondary) but not successful completed)
PLS WRITE ME…….HOW IS MY WORK EXPERIENCE…..FOR MY VISA
June 19, 2017 at 04:58
Read this.
https://britsimonsays.com/education-or-work-experience-qualifying-for-the-dv-lottery/
June 18, 2017 at 17:25
If you are from Sri Lanka that might disqualify you . But you can still give it a go.you can take the chance and go ahead with it . All you have to loose is few hundred $
June 18, 2017 at 18:09
Srilankan need 3 passes in A/L main subjects without English and general test hope you can try with working experience if you don’t have a A/L
June 18, 2017 at 18:33
Hi Brit,
You said that there was no point to be asked that if the CNs below 37XXX was safe for EU. 1-) Which CNs have high risk according to you? 2-) And is there any increase in highest CN you heard for EU, still 40k? 3-) How can you identify the risk of CN 392XX, low, mid or high? And lastly, when should we expect for a new working on numbers from you? Thank you for your valuable answers and thoughts.
June 18, 2017 at 21:08
FOR MARKO
1.CN EU >37000(37K)
2.For Simon?
3.high risk, but my friend everything is based on experience,some logical reasoning and off course their are britsimon and the likes, so don’t give up hold onto your hope. Am trying to help you simon!?
June 19, 2017 at 04:57
My complete thoughts are in the article. Wait and see.
June 18, 2017 at 22:04
Hello Brit,
sorry to bother you with the same question again, but somehow it got lost amongst others and it never got answered (I wasn’t clear about his “CA passport”/ June15)
One of my derivatives for dv 2018 win does not hold any valid ID from the country of origin (EU region). We all have a dual citizenship. Can I use his Canadian passport to fill out the DS260? I put down the country of birth for the lottery submission. Thank you.
June 19, 2017 at 05:05
Yes
June 19, 2017 at 09:33
Hi brit
My interview was on 14 jun, i got the approval and after that i asked the CO what time does it take to receive my passport, he said may be less than two weeks.
i check my status everyday, and it shows ready, today in the morning when i checked it, the last update date has been changed to yesterday and the status didn’t change ( still ready).
so what does that mean ?
And also what is the regular status process after the interview, and is it true that it should goes from ready to AP to issued ?
or from ready to issued directly?
and what the average time does it take to get the issued status, taking into account i’am single from Sudan.
Thanks in advance
June 19, 2017 at 15:10
You just need to be patient. You were told two weeks, now you haven’t even waited 1 week and you are stressing about it. RElax.
June 19, 2017 at 12:57
Hello! Thank you so much for all of your help, this website is an amazing resource. I am an EU citizen with a case number of 30XXX. Do you think that it is more likely I will be scheduled for an interview for May or June? I ask this because I am graduating from university abroad mid-May, and will then have to leave for my home country due to visa issues with staying in that country beyond graduation. Do you happen to know far in advance the KCC emails you with your scheduled interview date, as I know that it is possible to change your location before they schedule it, but not after?
June 19, 2017 at 15:18
There is no way to be precise about the interview date this far out.
2NLs give about 5 or 6 weeks notice as a minimum.
Once scheduled, you keep the appointment as is to avoid delay.
June 19, 2017 at 23:54
Hi Brit,
If we are scheduled for interview what is the time to get medical check ups and police clearance…We have to do it now while waiting for interview dates?
Thanks
June 20, 2017 at 00:44
You wait for the 2NL first
June 20, 2017 at 07:57
hi brit,
first of all i would like to thank you for providing information which really was helpful for everyone and was for me tooo…
i came to US day before yesterday and my question is my sponsor was from other state but i came to virginia and at yesterday when i went to apply for SCN they told me i have to wait for 22 Days as in the form my addeess was from another state so how can i change my adress
June 20, 2017 at 15:01
At the SSA office – but they told you to wait – so wait.
June 20, 2017 at 09:27
Hi,
First of all I would like to thank for your stat.
Only for the sake of clarity, Is the number 115968, including derivatives or not ?
It is very important for us.
Thank you again.
June 20, 2017 at 14:55
Is it important enough to read the article above?
June 20, 2017 at 15:32
I got it.
June 20, 2017 at 15:15
Does the announced “115,000 people” include derivatives?
June 20, 2017 at 17:00
The answer is in the article above. Please read.
June 20, 2017 at 17:16
“Then we have the selectee counts per country and the total for global selectees – 115,968. So – 115,968 people were selected from 23 million people – an average of 1 in 200.”
Absolutely YES
June 21, 2017 at 01:03
Good evening. Thank you and your website wbich helping a lot fot many people. One my brother applied dv lottery last year through agency. They got all his info and applied for him. But now they told him that he won it, and asking money for confirmation number. It is common business in my country since most people don’t know how to apply or English. But i told him to give money and i tried to get his confirmation thro his name DOB and his email. But agency use his email. So we couldn’t get his confirmation through website. Is there any way to get his confirmation without agency or agency’s email.
Thanks
June 21, 2017 at 02:16
You can get the confirmation number through the ESC page if you know the email address they used. Try that, it is the only way.
June 21, 2017 at 08:00
They aren’t giving us email which they used. If i contact to Kentucky with my full name and DOB and ID, is there possibility to get confirmation? L
June 21, 2017 at 13:30
NO.