This post is intended to inform the DV2018 selectees with information about the lottery. It will be a long post, so take your time and read it well if you want to understand the lottery process a little better.
As expected, the DV2018 selectee numbers have been published in the latest visa bulletin. So – if you are interested, you can see how many people have been selected in each country. The selectee number includes derivatives (family) who are included on the principal selectees case. The global and regional quotas (the 50,000 Green Cards available) also includes derivatives – so a family of 5 takes 5 out of the 50,000.
In the visa bulletin we have several important pieces of information. First the number of entries – nearly 15 million entries (23 million people including family). That is the highest entry count I have seen, so if you were selected you have been very lucky. Then we have the selectee counts per country and the total for global selectees – 115,968. So – 115,968 people were selected from 23 million people – an average of 1 in 200.
Countries do not get individual quotas either in the draw, or as cases are approved. So – some countries have less selectees because there were a lower number of entries. The draw is random within each region – entries from some countries are not given preference over other countries. There is however a rule that states that no single country can take more than 7% of the global visa count. So that means no one country can receive more than (approximately) 3500 visas. That is a MAXIMUM number, not an allocation. Realistically, the only countries that have a likely chance of hitting that limit is Nepal and Egypt. Both those countries have high selectee counts AND a high approval rate. Other countries could have just as many selectees, but will not have such a high approval rate. It is for that reason that Nepal and Egypt will probably have a limit in place in the final VB of DV2017 – because at some point, KCC predict the 7% limit will be hit, so they stop inviting selectees to interview. I do not know where that number will end for DV2017 or DV2018 – so if anyone asks, they will get the “wait and see” answer.
Some countries have been “limited” in the draw already. So for example, Ghana has probably had far more than 1.5 million entries – probably over 2 million people including family members. However we can see they “only” received 3549 selectees (whereas they should have had around 10,000 selectees). Other countries show the same effect. These countries are Ghana, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nepal, Iran, Russia, Uzbekistan and Ukraine, and most likely Liberia and Cameroon. This shows that the draw process is limiting the number of cases or selectees that any one country can receive. The limit is around 4500 selectees, or about 3000 distinct cases. Countries limited in this way have all their selectees concentrated in lower case numbers. At some point the selection process hits the 4500selectee/3000 cases limit and stops selecting people from those countries. So – it will not be a surprise to find that, for example Ghana cases are all in the first 15,000/20000 case numbers. Once the country is stopped, the remaining cases for that country create “holes” which is a case number being skipped. I have explained this in several posts before – but this post explains the draw process and holes well. You will notice in that article that disqualified cases also create holes.
Where can I see the selectee numbers?
The visa bulletin that gives the per country selectee count can be seen here.
The regional selectee count is as follows (with DV2017 / DV2016 numbers for comparison).
AF – 49392 (38500 / 45034)
EU – 41706 (28500 / 27011)
AS – 15997 (13499 / 15002)
OC – 3863 (1450 / 1500)
SA – 4995 (1954 / 3000)
NA – 15
Total – 115,968
Why are there more selectees than visas available?
The government have determined to make around 50,000 Green Cards available through this program, and while they are not obliged to issue them all, they want to issue as many as possible. They know they have to select more people than they have spaces. This is because of the following:
- Some people won’t respond or pursue their opportunity.
- Some will submit their forms but not attend the interview.
- Some will attend the interview but be refused.
- Some will attend the interview and be placed on AP, but then not be able to get cleared before the end of the year.
So – KCC over select, having decided that is the best way to use all the available Green Cards. However, estimating how many “extra people” to select is difficult. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don’t. This year, I believe they have selected too many people – and that means some people will miss out).
Why are there more selectees this year?
Each year USCIS (represented by KCC) decide how many selectees to announce. We have seen wild fluctuations in how many people they invite. Recent years have been like this:
- DV2013 – 105k
- DV2014 – 140k
- DV2015 – 125k (First year of electronic application form DS260)
- DV2016 – 91k
- DV2017 – 83k (plus second draw I estimate around 10k)
- DV2018 – 116k
The “ideal” number of selectees seems to be about 100k. However, we seem to be on a 2 year swing pattern. Two years the over select, then two years they under select and so on. DV2018 is a return to over selection after two calm years. Over selected years are stressful, because some people have to wait the whole year wondering whether they will get interviewed or not. I understand that feeling – I was in DV2014 – the most over selected year I know of. So – there was a lot of nervousness for many people and I remember that feeling well.
Will DV2018 go current?
No. Not all regions at least, and possibly no regions.
When we see current for a region it means there are more than enough visas remaining for remaining cases. So – everyone in a region that is current, can get an interview (except if the country is numerically stopped in the VB (Visa Bulletin) as has been the case in some years).
DV2016 and DV2017 went current because they had a low number of selectees. DV2018 is clearly different, and more like DV2015. I am certain that some regions cannot go current. I haven’t had time to work on numbers and I prefer to not predict final numbers these days, but some regions are obviously over selected. OC for instance is massively over selected – with case numbers up to OC26XX. In DV2015 the highest OC case number to get interviewed was 1489. So – there is obviously many OC cases that won’t be getting a chance for an interview.
SA also looks over selected, even with the additional increase in quota.
Other regions are less easy to judge – partly because I don’t have the highest case numbers. Over the next few days I will use previous years data to try and confirm the highest case numbers selected – but at this point all I can say is that there must be some risk for AS, EU and AF regions highest case numbers. Now – I know I am going to be flooded by people asking “am I safe” – so let me say this. There is NO POINT in worrying or asking me if you are safe if your numbers are below these numbers.
AF45XXX (Egypt may have a cutoff)
EU37XXX (UPDATE after CEAC data available – this number seems to high to be safe. Later analysis shows the “risk zone” could start as early as 33XXX)
AS8XXX (Nepal could be considered safe below AS7000)
OC13XX
SA15XX
Those numbers are conservative numbers that I consider safe without much risk at all. It does not mean the cutoffs won’t be higher than those numbers, but if your number is above those numbers you might be at some risk. However, I don’t have a crystal ball and whilst I can calculate rough numbers based on historical information, I am not in a position to give accurate predictions. So – if you ask me for predictions, I will simply answer “wait and see”. If you ask me multiple times, you will find that I ignore you. So please – try and respect my time by reading the information I am providing here and accept that we have a long time (about 1 year) before we know how DV2018 will end.
As best as I can tell, through people reporting their case numbers to me and calculation based on this years selectee counts the maximum case numbers for selectees this year are in these ranges.
AF – Reported early 50,000 range, but I calculated the highest numbers should be at least 60,000.
EU – Reported early 40,000 range, but I calculated the highest numbers should be around 45000.
AS – Reported 13XXX – and that seems a bit low for the selectee numbers released.
OC – Reported 26XX – and that seems about right for the selectee numbers released.
SA – Reported 25XX, but I calculated the highest numbers should be around 3000.
Will there be a second draw in DV2018?
No – as we can now see, they have more than enough selectees for each region – so there is no point in having a second draw.
So how many Green Cards can be given out to each region?
The DV program has 55,000 visas allocated each year. However, the NACARA program is given up to 5,000 of those visas, so we actually can see a number of visas awarded between 50,000 and 55,000. In practice a busy year will see as many as 52,000 to 53,000. DV2017 won’t even see that many awarded since there are not enough selectees in that year.
The visas are allocated to each region proportionally, based on a complex formula which uses populations in each region. So – the regions can receive the following percentages. The percentage would apply to the final global number – so you can apply these percentages to 50,000, and in the end they may give slightly more in each region if the global total goes slightly above 50,000 (by using some of the visas allocated to NACARA).
AF – 43.15%
EU – 36.63%
OC – 1.58%
AS – 15.61%
SA – 3.01%
This year a new country was made eligible – Ecuador in SA region. That means SA have had a small increase in available quota. Comparing quotas to DV2015, AF has slightly higher in DV2018, EU and AS are slightly reduced and OC is unchanged.
Differences that could affect this year.
DV2017 Photos.
Every year the instructions say to use a photo less than 6 months old. However in previous years, disqualification on the grounds of an old photo was rare because it was hard to p[rove the photo was old. However, in DV2018 instruction there was a new instruction that said “Submitting the same photograph that was submitted with last year’s entry (DV-2017) will result in disqualification.” Of course some people choose to not read the instructions or do read them but ignore them. So – I know we have lots of selectees that have re-used DV2017 photos. Theoretically, those entries could have been disqualified before results were announced, but they weren’t. So – there could be a directive to the embassies to disqualify those case, OR they might leave that up to the discretion of the embassy/CO. At this point, we have no idea how that will be handled – the COs may disqualify cases for that reason, or they may just ignore that instruction. But if cases are disqualified for that reason that could mean higher case numbers get a chance.
The Trump “Administration”
Trump has already clumsily tried to interfere with immigration matters since his term began. The “travel bans” are currently suspended by the courts, but the government could appeal, they might win (I don’t think so, but possible) or they could try to implement some other sort of ban. We just don’t know. Trying to predict what Trump will do is like trying to predict what a donkey will do next. The “donkey” probably has no idea himself. However, he could have issued orders to immigration officials to be more stringent in background checks. That would slow processing, particularly on AP cases. So – this is a factor that could affect some regions (AF and AS).
Agents.
There has been a staggering increase in entries in recent years. DV2015 had 14 million entries and derivatives, and by DV2018 that number has risen to 24 million. I know agents have been more active in several countries and have been registering people in huge numbers. In some countries the agents are honest and provide a helpful service with no ill intention. Nepal is like that. BUT in more countries agents are ruining the lottery process. They register as many people as possible, often with little regard for accuracy in the eDV entry. They then blackmail winners by withholding the winning case number details unless the person agrees to pay a large additional fee or agrees to a sham marriage. Agents like that are scumbags. I advise everyone to steer clear of them. However, when agents are involved the chances of refusal are higher. In Ghana for instance around 80% of cases will be refused at interview. This is because agents gave bad information on the entry, then people try and produce fake documents and so on. So – Ghanaian agents swamp the lottery with over 2 million entries and then reduce the chances of approval through their involvement. So – since there are so many more entries this year, I am guessing that is agent involvement and I expect some countries to experience increased refusal rates.
Why do I often answer “read the instructions”?
I get a lot of questions from people on information they should know if they had read the official instructions on how to process the case. So – when I say “read the instructions” – it means read the link provided in the 1NL – which is also here.
Other points to note:
Much of what I write is speculation based on little information. The only way to be certain of the future is to wait until the future arrives!
Some terms I may use:
Derivative rate – how many people per case number. Varies by country and region, but world average is 1.6 – meaning each case accounts for the principal winner and 0.6 of a derivative.
Derivative growth rate – Winners get married and have children during the year. That increases the derivative rate, again varies by country and region, but this can mean a significant increase in applicants. More explanation about derivative rate and growth rate here.
Density – Because of the limited countries, some countries have an increasing number of “holes” in upper number ranges. For instance, in AF region, there will only be 250 actual cases per 1000 case numbers at the highest number ranges (50,000 and above). So – the cases are less “dense”. More explanation about density here.
Non response rate – People that never submit their DS260. More explanation about response rate here.
No shows – people that submit their DS260 but don’t show up for interview.
AP – Administrative Processing. A period of waiting after interview when additional checks are made or missing documents obtained.
OK – hope that helps! If you don’t understand something above – please go back and read everything again slowly. There is LOTS of information here to understand, so it takes some time to sink in.
July 28, 2017 at 12:04
hello Brits
thanks for this wonderful blog. Ghana in the AF region has all its selectees in the lower cases. This is very true from case numbers being reported by Ghanaians as the declare their numbers so far. This gives them an edge on other selectees from the same region as all of them have the chance to meet a CO while others in the same zone not all because some have higher numbers even if Ghana cannot make the 7% because of high refusal rate .Questions
1 why are they favored to meet the CO others not all in same region if I might be wrong?
2 You reported after your brilliant write up above having seen the highest reported case in AF region as 60000 but in think I have seen some one Gilbert and another reporting their cases in your blog being more than 70000.Did you miss this out ?
3 from most sample declarations in the AF zone most selectees are in the 40000>52000 range ,why or what accounts for such a high number and concentration of AF selectees in this range??
4 With the misjudgments 1n DV 2015 of making a quick cut off in the AF region by September and almost the same numbers can we say AF region can go above 52000 and even current by September?
July 28, 2017 at 13:55
1. This is well explained in this post – https://britsimonsays.com/holes-theory-illustration/
2. I have seen one case reported at around 70k. I need to see more than one – and somehow corroborate that. There are in each year some “randomly high” numbers – so not part of a continuous set of numbers. I am waiting to see more evidence one way or the other. Mathmatically I know there should be at least 60,000 and because of the density at that number range, 70k is not impossible.
3. That is not a correct finding.
4. In DV2015 I said 55,000 was possible and I was mathematically correct – the data was eventually released that proved I was right. But I don’t run the process. So – whatever I can calculate can still be wrong because there are other decisions being made. So – I now say “wait and see” a lot.
August 12, 2017 at 21:27
Hello Britsimon
Could you elaborate on how you calculate the highest case numbers or maybe did you explain this somewhere in a post in your blog ?
August 13, 2017 at 15:18
In past years I was able to extract the case number data from CEAC for ALL cases. From that I can build an understanding of case density, derivative rates and so on. I have very precise data. So – I can use that data to perform the calculations. I published the CEAC data so you can search for some older posts for a better understanding.
July 28, 2017 at 23:25
Is the 80% of people who will be denied visas in Ghana included in your AF45*** cut off prediction for 2018AF region or they are not?
July 29, 2017 at 01:02
Well forst, that is NOT my cut off prediction. But yes, I take denials into account.
July 29, 2017 at 06:01
“They may ask for custody documen’s and other evidence that the mother has permission to take the child to the USA.”
1-What OTHER EVIDENCE could it be?
“Maybe. Think of other evidence you can show of the relationship.”
I and my wife have pictures of just us, us and my step son, us and some family members long before we even got married….. We (I and my wife) even have a 3months old daughter who was born in April 2017 (my wife was 7weeks to give birth to our daughter when we were celebrating our civil marriage at the town hall.)
2- Could all the above serve as OTHER EVIDENCE of our relationship?
Please.
July 29, 2017 at 08:10
1. Court documents giving full custody. A sworn letter from the father – use some imagination.
2. Yes – that sort of evidence. use some imagination.
July 29, 2017 at 12:21
Dear sim,
1.when will be the interview started for Dv 2018? B/se I want to correct Some error on ds 260.
2.If the passport is not enterd on ds 260,can I take it only at interview time or should I fill it ?
3.How could I know whether I’m scheduled for interview or not?
4.Is there any cross check for age on the educagional certificate and birth certificate during inerview? I’m dv 2018 winner.
5.which place of dilivery is correct; I was born in a rural (kebele),but ds 260 asks city of birth.should i fill exact village site or city which I belongs (country-region-zone-woreda-village) which is the correct ? village or zonal b/se village have no city.
Thank you for you hel
July 29, 2017 at 15:26
1. https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/
2. You should correct it now.
3. They email you.
4. They check all the documents – and if they are unsure about the validity, they can investigate further.
5. Use your best judgement with your understanding of your country.
July 30, 2017 at 07:41
Hello Brits…
Thanks for the assistance u re rendering on this page.
1.) I’m a 2018 winner of a family DV but when feeling the DS 260 FORM, one of the derivatives order of names was reversed. Instead of NGU IVO AMBE, i rather filled AMBE IVO NGU and for quite some time now, have been applying for it to be unlocked to no avail. What next can I do to correct it?
2.) We are five of us…my self, my wife and 3 kids with case number 2018AF00047000. Two weeks ago, I applied for our ds 260 forms to be unlocked to enable me make some corrections but surprisingly only two were unlocked despite the fact that I applied as u instructed. I specifically and seperately ask clearly for each to be unlocked. I even repeated the request last week still to no avail. What should I do please?
July 31, 2017 at 01:34
1. You have to ask the to unlock. That is what you must do.
2. Ask again. They are humans.
July 31, 2017 at 08:53
Hi BritSimon…kindly advice on this situation. Am 2018 Dv selectee n am the priciple applicant. When my spouse-derivative was filling his DS 260 form, he put his late fathers name as A. B. C….however, looking at his birth certificate which he had to reapply recently since he had lost it a while back, his fathers name appears as B. C. X..
The name A on his DS is the fathers English name but does not reflect on my spouses birth certificate. Also, the name X on his fathers name on spouses birth certificate is not indicated on his DS 260..
1. In your view, can this be a problem at DV interview? When reproducing a birth certificate, you are cannot change this as the names are that way in the system-from hospital records back in the days.
2. Is this worth unlocking his DS to correct the fathers names or he can explain at interview?
Your guidance is highly appreciated. Thnx.
July 31, 2017 at 14:53
You are overthinking this. As this is a derivative, it won’t be a problem.
July 31, 2017 at 16:49
Ok BritSimon. Appreciated..just wanted to be double sure..thnx.
August 1, 2017 at 00:23
Hi Brit,
sorry for bordering u once more. We are winners of the 2018 dv and one of my derivative’s (my son) order of names was displaced. Instead of NGU LIVOH AMBE, we rather entered AMBE LIVOH NGU. have applied for his form to be unlocked and have done the correction but there’s another problem. It appears when we were playing dv 2018, the names were not only reversed but also wrongly spelled as well.
1.) Instead of NGU LIVOH AMBE, we rather wrote AMBE LIVOL NGU.
2.) Instead of LIVOH, we rather wrote LIVOL.
Myou worry is, can it cause us any big trouble?
Secondly have corrected his name on the Mum and Dads forms and resubmitted successfully. But after correcting his, I tried to submit severally but it wasn’t going. The didnt even indicate in red ink if i had ommited any. Don’t know what the problem is. Have verified and all information have been entered correctlyrics. What should I do?
Please, I need ur wise advise as usual.
Thanks
August 1, 2017 at 00:54
Derivatives names are not a problem. Don’t worry about it.
https://britsimonsays.com/faq/ds260-case-number-doesnt-match-case-number/
August 1, 2017 at 07:35
Thanks very much.
Have done all that but it’s still not going. Have removed the zeros of the case number as instructed in the link above yet it’s still not going.
Have checked carefully to be sure all information has been entered accurately.
There’s even no writing in red ink to show that an information entered is not correct.
The others went without any problem but this particular one is refusing to be re send.
Im just confused…please what I’m I supposed to do??
August 1, 2017 at 13:12
First – always click reply to keep the conversation as a thread. When you say just one isn’t going – if that is a male under age 26, the reason is because of the selective service link. You must click the link on the last page just before you submit. As long as the link has been clicked, the form will now submit. This is only for a male under 26.
August 3, 2017 at 01:34
Thanks alot for ur advise and assistance. I did as u instructed above and it finally went.
Thanks once.
May 26, 2019 at 10:19
freeman. I am from cameroon and i won the dv lottery and my case number is almost as you. Was just wondering how your own process went and if you were scheduled for an interview n if it was successful
August 3, 2017 at 14:02
Remember I told you that the DV Lottery was going to be eliminated. I hope you saw that new RAISE act in play .. 🙂 just congress and the house left. Mark my words, the DV Lottery is done for. Even if the new merit system isn’t implement, I can assure you this is the last DV lottery.
August 3, 2017 at 14:05
You don’t seem to understand.
August 3, 2017 at 16:42
Just a quick question, I’ve scanned the per country selectee count, how come countries like Albania with 2.8 million people have almost 4.5k selectees whereas Greece with 11 million people, a huge tendency to immigrate these days, and one of the largest ethnic communities in the USA, only have 171 selectees? I understand it is a lottery, but I can’t help being surprised with the proportion of country population count to number of selectees from some countries.
August 3, 2017 at 16:52
It is not related to population, it is a matter of how many people enter the lottery. The chances of being selected is the same in each country APART FROM countries which have so many entries that they actually get limited. Ukraine and Uzbekistan are limited – being held to “only” 4500 selectees this year. I suspect Albania is also now limited. So – that would mean a Greek entering would have better chances than an Albanian.
Also, Albania has seen a huge sudden increase in selectees. That suggests one of two things – agents publicizing the lottery and assisting in entries, or high level of entry fraud. Either way – the likely result is a lower issued rate for that country compared to previous years.
August 3, 2017 at 17:52
Brit, please clarify what does it mean for country to be “limited”.How it could affect DV-winners from these countries?
For example, if I am from Ukraine and my number is EU 48XX does that mean that my number might not go current?
August 3, 2017 at 18:40
The limitation on a country during the draw process is when certain countries (like yours) have a HUGE number of entries. For instance, Ukraine probably had in excess of 1 million entries this year (plus derivatives). So – if they had not been limited they would have got around 15,000 selectees. To avoid that, the draw process stop selecting entries from that country during the draw. This means all Ukrainians have low case numbers.
https://britsimonsays.com/holes-theory-illustration/
YOU don’t have to worry – because you were lucky enough to be selected in that early group. There is no risk for you.
August 3, 2017 at 20:59
Thanks a lot Brit.
August 3, 2017 at 18:16
Thank you
August 4, 2017 at 00:25
hi i want to know if there two people share the same number but in different region i mean for example:
person from Asia have this case No. 2018AS00012345
another person from Africa have this case No. 2018AF00012345
is that possible or not thank you.
August 4, 2017 at 06:54
Yes that is possible
August 4, 2017 at 09:32
Am one of the selectees for the DV2018 and am grateful to admin Britsimon. Now with the new immigration reform proposals by Trump ‘s admin,will this affect the current selectees or is just for future draws? What do you think are the chances for the bill to gain support in Senate and other federal arms? Not worried but curious ?
August 4, 2017 at 15:22
I will be posting something about that later today.
August 5, 2017 at 18:23
To submit à ds260 for a male under 26 years, you have to click the link on the last page just before submitting. I am wondering:
-should i left double click the link, left click just ones or right click and open a new tab?
-if I click, will the link open or not.
-if it does open, will I see submit to click on?
Am sort of confused, pls.
August 5, 2017 at 18:30
Try it.
August 8, 2017 at 11:04
hello sir, how can i track CEAC Confirmation ? do you have any tracking option?
August 8, 2017 at 15:18
No
August 10, 2017 at 14:52
You have been randomly selected for further processing in the Diversity Immigrant Visa Program for the fiscal year 2018 (October 1, 2017 to September 30, 2018). Selection does not guarantee that you will receive a visa because the number of applicants selected is greater than the number of visas available.
1.why they told “Selection does not guarantee that you will receive a visa because the number of applicants”?
2.what are the reasons for reject application?
3.how many percentage % it is approved?
4.can you explain the questions
August 10, 2017 at 15:07
1. It is self explanatory.
2. Various reasons – too many to list.
3. Varies.
4. You need to read more on my site. Read the FAQ, read the basic questions link and so on.
August 10, 2017 at 16:25
i am in ASIA ,can you show me a completely filled sample ds 260 form?i need to compare it with my form
August 10, 2017 at 19:00
I already told you to read more articles on my site. You haven’t done that. You just want me to spoon feed you… Take responsibility for your own case.
August 11, 2017 at 05:09
Hello Britsimon,
I really appreciate what you are doing and i must say this has really been a great support for us. I have a small query regarding the visa bulletin for september. When I compared the bulletin to that of past few years, the AS region cutoff for october month has been drastically reduced, esp Iran and Nepal. I am a DV selectee from Nepal, so I am a bit concerned. Would you please expalin this one ?
August 11, 2017 at 05:26
Please always be sure to take a look at recent posts.
https://britsimonsays.com/visa-bulletin-october-interview-released/
August 11, 2017 at 12:27
Hi Britsimon,
I am a winner of the 2018DV lotto – OC5xx
I unlocked my DS 260 in mid June because I realised I had to add my UK nationality to the form, however I am still waiting for HMPO to issue me with my passport.
Should I just submit the DS260 without my UK passport number now and amend it later (inform them at the interview)? or I should I just leave my DS260 unlocked and then submit it in one go? I am hoping to get interviewed ASAP with no delays
Thanks
August 11, 2017 at 14:00
I don’t know the whole story – but I assume you don’t “need” the UK nationality (like being from one of the travel ban impacted countries, and married to an OC’er), in which case it is up to you – either way would be OK.
August 12, 2017 at 23:37
Hello Britsimon
Would it be possible to add to this post the regional selectee count number for 2015 as well as 2016/2017 for comparaison purposes . I am asking because the 2018 draw is more comparable to 2015 than 2016 or 2017. so it would be helpful to compare the number of selectees in that way.
August 13, 2017 at 15:09
If I get time – but in the meantime you can look it up yourself both in my previous posts and the past visa bulletins. 2015 numbers are here:
https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-june-2014.html
August 15, 2017 at 11:51
Hi brit.
In the SA visa bulletin the number are:
Octuber 400
November 615
December 600
That mean that in october are 400 interview
november 615 different interview
Or
That mean that october are attending case number 0 to 400 and november are attending case number 401 to 615
Thanks
August 15, 2017 at 14:05
October – case numbers 0 to 399 can be interviewed (if their DS260 is processed)
November – case number 0 to 614 can be interviewed (if their DS260 is processed). That will include some cases under 400 that were not ready to be interviewed in October.
August 15, 2017 at 14:10
Hi Brit, are the cut-off numbers for November and December already published?
August 15, 2017 at 15:34
No
August 15, 2017 at 12:53
Hi Simon. I really appreciate your website, it’s a fantastic resource! Our family were fortunate enough to be selected with a very low case number in OC. My question is, what is the likelihood that we’ll be required to produce evidence of savings (bank statements) at our interview? I know you can’t answer in100% certainty, but thought you may have an idea either way. We’re contemplating withholding submitting the DS260 until we have boosted our savings even though we’d ideally like to process it immediately and then start the saving/selling our assets process. Thanks again.
August 15, 2017 at 13:32
It depends on the embassy and the case. Sydney for example rarely asks for anything, whilst New Zealand routinely asks. Prepare an I-134 if you are worried. You don’t sell assets before you are approved.
August 17, 2017 at 08:27
Hi Mr. Simon. May I help you with some information, that might come in handy at some point. In Romania, they also ask for financial support on a regular basis, since the low-medium salaries here range between $250 – $500. They say you have to prove that once you arrive in the US, you have enough resources to be able to support you and your family for a few months (until you find a job and settle). Selectees that passed the interview in Romania say that in average you should present bank statements for at least $5,000/ person, more or less (which is about the amount for 4-6 months of the poverty limit). Property deeds (houses, apartments, cars) are also accepted, as well as an employment letter/ promise. The thing is that there is a high risk of becoming a public charge and given the wages here, it is not common that people have that amount of money, whereas in other countries, with higher wages, it is easier to get that amount in 2-3 months, so this may be the reason why in some countries they ask for financial support, while in some others they don’t. Of course, there is also the possibility of receiving I-134, but that’s a whole new story. Some are reticent, given all the conditions and the fact that it is binding for several years, for instance if you provide someone with I-134 and they become a public charge, you may be sued for the amount of money they benefited of, in order to be recovered. I’m not sure how many people would put themselves to some risk, especially for people you don’t know very well. I’m sure that you already knew these info, but they might help some others reading your blog. I sure know that reading the comments section helped me a lot in finding answers to some questions I had and maybe didn’t find in your posts. Best of luck to you and your family!
August 17, 2017 at 08:30
That is interesting, but more accurate information is here:-
britsimonsays.com/all-about-public-charge-affidavit-of-support-i-134/
The I-134 is NOT legally enforceable for the support – it differs from the I-864 in that respect. If showing savings, $10,000 per person is a more realistic amount, although some embassies have suggested the amounts should be FAR higher.
August 17, 2017 at 10:26
Hi Brits,
After reading the text above I got confused concerning the affidavit of support. We are five of us hat is my 3 kids, my wife and my sel. We are from Cameroon and I have my direct brother in the US for over 15yrs, who lives in his personal house. As far as the affidavit is concern, does it mean we are suppose to show proof of bank statement or what? Please enlighten me abit on that.
Don’t know if it also applies to 2018AF winners precisely cameroon?
August 17, 2017 at 21:03
https://britsimonsays.com/all-about-public-charge-affidavit-of-support-i-134/
August 17, 2017 at 16:06
Hi Brits,
How are applicants informed once they have been programed for interview?
1.) Is it through the email address provided when feeling the DS 260 FORM?
2.) Is it through the adress one used when playing the DV? For instance, adress of a cyber cafe where we played???
In a situation where an applicant has been programed for interview but has not received an email from kcc,
3.) Is there any other site or address where one can very when (the date) his interview has been scheduled?
August 17, 2017 at 19:20
1. This
2. No
3. You don’t need the email itself. Just check the ESC page.
August 17, 2017 at 21:08
Thanks
August 20, 2017 at 12:59
Hi Brit,
I am from Afghansitan, residing in India for study purpose and luckily selected for DV 2018. But things are very complicated in the thread .
Could you please tell me will my case number ever get the chance to be called for interview?
It’s 2018AS00013***.
I need your help please don’t guide me through a link. Write down your answer, as I was so happy but very disppointed since I have heard I may not get interviewed because of the high number of case.
August 20, 2017 at 14:15
Your number is very high – and therefore risky. But no one, including me, knows for sure where the cut off will fall. So -wait and see.
August 20, 2017 at 20:31
Thank you so much For your response Brit.
August 20, 2017 at 19:01
Hi Brit
I have been reading your post carefully and following you, I got all information,but have mixed feelings in respect to my case my can is 2018AF00041803. IN ONE SENTENCE please I want to know if I am on a risk zone and if I will be call up for interview . thanks waiting to hear from you
August 20, 2017 at 19:49
ONE SENTENCE: The article above answers your question.
August 21, 2017 at 07:19
Hi dear simon, when i fill ds260 form I have made a single spelling error of the name of the person where my GC will be issued shall I unlock my form just for that?
August 21, 2017 at 14:15
No
August 22, 2017 at 16:12
hello sir, can you explain the meaning
“AS – Reported 13XXX – and that seems a bit low for the selectee numbers released.”
August 22, 2017 at 16:17
That refers to the highest ASSIGNED numbers – not the final cutoff. That is CLEAR in the article. Please. Read.
August 22, 2017 at 17:01
All Ethiopian DV2018 selectees’. I want to know the highest case number in order to estimate interview time, please tell me your case number mine is around AF16xxx. Thank you.
August 22, 2017 at 19:41
Mine is around af 24***
August 22, 2017 at 17:07
Hello sir, why i cant unable to view visa bulletion june 2017 Asia ,it is showing Current (june,July,), how can i view the cut off?
August 22, 2017 at 17:29
That would be for 2017 – and has nothing to do with your case.
Read this
https://britsimonsays.com/dv-faq/
August 23, 2017 at 02:58
can you tell me 2017 Asian final cut of number?
August 23, 2017 at 05:22
Read some of my articles about the visa bulletin. You need to read and understand rather than asking me so many fundamental questions.
August 23, 2017 at 05:53
ok sir, and i need to know more one
AS8XXX (Nepal could be considered safe below AS7000)
AS8xxx is meaning 8000 or 8999? Please explain it
August 25, 2017 at 05:25
i also same doubt sir
i m srilanka my cs no AS85xx
August 25, 2017 at 13:33
Really – wait and see.
August 23, 2017 at 13:17
ok sir, and i need to know more one
AS8XXX (Nepal could be considered safe below AS7000)
AS8xxx is meaning 8000 or 8999? Please explain it
August 23, 2017 at 13:54
It isn’t precise. Some number in that range.
August 23, 2017 at 14:22
Don’t repeat questions because you are impatient! I sleep sometimes…
August 23, 2017 at 06:39
Thanks a lot Brit, I patiently read everything and I know my position now but I keep all in God Almighty hands.
Questions:
1) Is it compulsory to include your wife in the ds260 form,changing your status to married after you have filled and submitted in May and about some months later you got married or continue with the application as you submitted if your wife don’t want to go with you??
August 23, 2017 at 14:18
You must update your marital status, but you don’t have to request a visa for your spouse.
August 24, 2017 at 12:39
Hello,
Thank you for this great web site !
1. According to current Visa Bulletin for Europe (2600), do you still think below EU37XXX is safe ?
2. Is EU21XXX at risk ?
3. If not, when the interview month can be ?
Thanks again…
August 24, 2017 at 13:18
1. Nothing changed.
2. Is 21 less than 37?
3. Wait and see
August 26, 2017 at 07:35
My calculation
Total VISA 52000
Asia AS – 15.61%
52000/100*15.61=8117 is this correct calculation?
8117 case no is final cut off 2018?
August 26, 2017 at 13:55
No – the 15.61% is the number of visas available.
I have told you I am not predicting. I have told you that several times. The reason is because it is hard, and inaccurate. If it was as easy as your calculation don’t you think I would be telling everyone that!!
Each case number has a principal selectee and the derivatives. Not everyone will process their case, not everyone will be approved. There are holes between the numbers. So – you cannot calculate the final cut off with your simplistic calculation.
August 26, 2017 at 07:52
Dear mr simon my number is 2018 af24**** in what month could possibly my 2nl would arrive!
August 26, 2017 at 13:51
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/
August 26, 2017 at 14:35
Hello sir,
2018 -AS – 15.61%,
i need to know Asian 2015,2016,2017
August 26, 2017 at 15:35
No you don’t.
August 26, 2017 at 17:19
AS – 15.61%
1.What is the caclulation bro??
2.How do you caclulate it?
3.This percentage which year dv lottery??
Please answer my 3 questions
August 26, 2017 at 18:02
You are not reading what I have already told you – nor paying attention to the article above. Consequently you are wasting my time with pointless questions. Please READ what I have said!
1. As I said. It is the allocation for the region.
2. By reading the rules that decide how to allocate the visas. That is already stated above.
3. AGAIN – stated above.
READ BEFORE YOU ASK ANYTHING MORE ON THIS SUBJECT!
August 30, 2017 at 04:23
Hello,
First of all, I’d like to say thank you for putting your effort and time to create this very useful article for us to read. I am a selectee of DV2018 with very high number and i’m not quite sure I will be safe. In this case, is it okay for me to apply for DV2019? Will there be consequences if I do? Cause as far as I’m concerned, there was no written rule about this case and I don’t want to lose another year for nothing.
Thank you in advance for your answer.
August 30, 2017 at 04:31
No problem.
August 31, 2017 at 05:36
what is your case number range
August 31, 2017 at 05:38
what is your case number range m
August 31, 2017 at 12:01
HI Brit….I am from Afghanistan, i was luckily selected for DV 2018.
Could you please tell me will my case number ever get the chance to be called for interview?
It’s 2018AS20**
I need your help please don’t guide me through a link.please just write ur answer because i have been waiting for some hope i was seeing visa bulletin selectee number is it my number high ?i will be very obliged for ur reply ….
August 31, 2017 at 13:38
Take responsibility for your case. Read the article above.
September 2, 2017 at 08:12
I am bit confused, my case number is 2018AF503XX and the total selected from africa region is 49392. how come?
September 2, 2017 at 13:50
https://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
September 2, 2017 at 20:04
Hi Brit
I want appreciate ur job because it help me a lot to know about dv process and please tell wether my
1.Case number is safe 2018AF 187** from ethiopia and
2.When it wll be my interview date? from ur previous guess u said december or january is that?
thanks
God bless u!
September 2, 2017 at 20:10
1. Yes
2. I don’t know.
September 4, 2017 at 05:58
Hi sir thanks for all ur attention.
When will publist 2n lot of 2nd L n there is any possiblity case nub from AS750 to 1500 includs this time.
September 4, 2017 at 14:13
Wait and see.
September 4, 2017 at 18:21
Hello Brit. Let me know if I under stalin very well. If SA high case is 4995. The case number 16xx are safena or not? Thanks
September 4, 2017 at 20:25
4995 is not the highest case number. Each case can include derivatives and the 4995 includes derivatives.
Wait and see how the numbers progress.
September 4, 2017 at 21:19
Do you know where can I find data of the last 5 years to check case number. Thanks
September 4, 2017 at 22:31
What data?
September 4, 2017 at 23:12
Firstly, thanks again for all your hard work in maintaining your site. Wanted to confirm a few things:
— I obviously didn’t read your guides closely enough because didn’t realize that most years ALL winners a.k.a. selectees were selected so quickly – less than 3 months this year – and also that second draws are rare. I have diligently been checking DVlottery site every week – but appears I should have stopped back in July when you posted this detailed explanation of the July visa bulletin. Am I correct in my new ‘understanding’?
— Even if a winner/selectee, it’s wise to still enter next year’s lottery because especially if one has a high case number for one’s region, over-selection means one’s case number may not become current before the cut-off date deadline the following September. Have I got that right?
Thanks
September 4, 2017 at 23:17
1. All winners were selected in May. There may have been a few added in EU region last week, but really – May is the announcement.
2. Everyone can enter DV2019 – and high case numbers should do so.
September 6, 2017 at 21:34
Are you sure about the 2nd draw last week for EU?
September 6, 2017 at 21:49
No – not 100%. I can only be sure with corroboration and I don’t have that.
September 4, 2017 at 23:46
I mean is I want to know how many visa they gave in 2016 2015 2014 2013. With case number did they reach. Thanks
September 5, 2017 at 01:26
THere is some information at the link below – but it is not possible to compare as you think you can. The reality is – “wait and see” is the best ANYONE can say. Believe me – if I don’t know more accurately – there is no way for you to know better than I do.
britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 5, 2017 at 01:26
THere is some information at the link below – but it is not possible to compare as you think you can. The reality is – “wait and see” is the best ANYONE can say. Believe me – if I don’t know more accurately – there is no way for you to know better than I do.
britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 5, 2017 at 06:33
Hello Brit, i need to know about “current” status means
all of visa are issued or pending selected have chance to select?
September 5, 2017 at 13:22
For an individual case it means eligible for an interview. For the region, it means there are enough remaining visas for all remaining demand.
September 5, 2017 at 11:39
Hi Brits,
My number is 2018AF00048xxx with 4 derivatives precisely from Cameroon . Please, are we safe and can u also advise us to go in for the 2019DV should ur answer be NO?
Please Mr Brits, don’t direct me to a link. Just try and answer me here…please.
September 5, 2017 at 13:13
Read the article above.
There is no harm in entering DV2019.
September 6, 2017 at 10:18
hlo brit sir,
i have been seleted in dv 2018 i hava got first letter and i am waiting for second letter. so plz tell me the answer of following question i am confused in this question so i am asking you
1) how second letter comes all second letter comes at one time or it will come one by one by seeying case no?
2) for what time i can wait for second letter or comming of second letter is expired ?
3) and under how many thousand case no there is chance of comming second letter my country is nepal
so this is my question plz answer it thank u
September 6, 2017 at 14:49
1. One batch of 2NLs per month.
2. britsimonsays.com/DV2018-basic-questions
3. britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
September 6, 2017 at 16:40
If KCC says they are currently processing my ds form does it mean my case number will be in september visa bulleting?
September 6, 2017 at 16:42
Case number 2018Af12xxx
September 6, 2017 at 17:32
No – it does not mean that. It is a question of your case number AND when your DS260 finishes.
September 7, 2017 at 06:04
Hi Brit…Thanks for ur kindness! two Q’s:
1- I m single with case # 2018AF245XX . is the case # safe for Ethiopia?
2- I submitted DS-260 on May 16, still being processed. when I asked KCC , still ‘currently processing’ after almost 4 months. Backlog? or what?
with many thanks again.
September 7, 2017 at 06:08
1. Probably.
2. Some cases take a long time to process because record keeping standards in some countries is not good.
September 8, 2017 at 04:34
Hi .. my case is 2018AS107XX.. Am I safe ,!?
September 8, 2017 at 04:48
Read above.
September 8, 2017 at 05:01
And if so , which month you would expect to be called for interview ?!
September 8, 2017 at 05:26
Thanks britt for yr grt help for dv winners
Is As65** case for 2018 for is risky….in ur opinion?
September 8, 2017 at 14:04
READ THE ARTICLE!!!!
September 9, 2017 at 08:39
Can we know which pic have we uploaded during dv entry?
September 9, 2017 at 11:49
There is no way to check.