This post is intended to inform the DV2018 selectees with information about the lottery. It will be a long post, so take your time and read it well if you want to understand the lottery process a little better.
As expected, the DV2018 selectee numbers have been published in the latest visa bulletin. So – if you are interested, you can see how many people have been selected in each country. The selectee number includes derivatives (family) who are included on the principal selectees case. The global and regional quotas (the 50,000 Green Cards available) also includes derivatives – so a family of 5 takes 5 out of the 50,000.
In the visa bulletin we have several important pieces of information. First the number of entries – nearly 15 million entries (23 million people including family). That is the highest entry count I have seen, so if you were selected you have been very lucky. Then we have the selectee counts per country and the total for global selectees – 115,968. So – 115,968 people were selected from 23 million people – an average of 1 in 200.
Countries do not get individual quotas either in the draw, or as cases are approved. So – some countries have less selectees because there were a lower number of entries. The draw is random within each region – entries from some countries are not given preference over other countries. There is however a rule that states that no single country can take more than 7% of the global visa count. So that means no one country can receive more than (approximately) 3500 visas. That is a MAXIMUM number, not an allocation. Realistically, the only countries that have a likely chance of hitting that limit is Nepal and Egypt. Both those countries have high selectee counts AND a high approval rate. Other countries could have just as many selectees, but will not have such a high approval rate. It is for that reason that Nepal and Egypt will probably have a limit in place in the final VB of DV2017 – because at some point, KCC predict the 7% limit will be hit, so they stop inviting selectees to interview. I do not know where that number will end for DV2017 or DV2018 – so if anyone asks, they will get the “wait and see” answer.
Some countries have been “limited” in the draw already. So for example, Ghana has probably had far more than 1.5 million entries – probably over 2 million people including family members. However we can see they “only” received 3549 selectees (whereas they should have had around 10,000 selectees). Other countries show the same effect. These countries are Ghana, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nepal, Iran, Russia, Uzbekistan and Ukraine, and most likely Liberia and Cameroon. This shows that the draw process is limiting the number of cases or selectees that any one country can receive. The limit is around 4500 selectees, or about 3000 distinct cases. Countries limited in this way have all their selectees concentrated in lower case numbers. At some point the selection process hits the 4500selectee/3000 cases limit and stops selecting people from those countries. So – it will not be a surprise to find that, for example Ghana cases are all in the first 15,000/20000 case numbers. Once the country is stopped, the remaining cases for that country create “holes” which is a case number being skipped. I have explained this in several posts before – but this post explains the draw process and holes well. You will notice in that article that disqualified cases also create holes.
Where can I see the selectee numbers?
The visa bulletin that gives the per country selectee count can be seen here.
The regional selectee count is as follows (with DV2017 / DV2016 numbers for comparison).
AF – 49392 (38500 / 45034)
EU – 41706 (28500 / 27011)
AS – 15997 (13499 / 15002)
OC – 3863 (1450 / 1500)
SA – 4995 (1954 / 3000)
NA – 15
Total – 115,968
Why are there more selectees than visas available?
The government have determined to make around 50,000 Green Cards available through this program, and while they are not obliged to issue them all, they want to issue as many as possible. They know they have to select more people than they have spaces. This is because of the following:
- Some people won’t respond or pursue their opportunity.
- Some will submit their forms but not attend the interview.
- Some will attend the interview but be refused.
- Some will attend the interview and be placed on AP, but then not be able to get cleared before the end of the year.
So – KCC over select, having decided that is the best way to use all the available Green Cards. However, estimating how many “extra people” to select is difficult. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don’t. This year, I believe they have selected too many people – and that means some people will miss out).
Why are there more selectees this year?
Each year USCIS (represented by KCC) decide how many selectees to announce. We have seen wild fluctuations in how many people they invite. Recent years have been like this:
- DV2013 – 105k
- DV2014 – 140k
- DV2015 – 125k (First year of electronic application form DS260)
- DV2016 – 91k
- DV2017 – 83k (plus second draw I estimate around 10k)
- DV2018 – 116k
The “ideal” number of selectees seems to be about 100k. However, we seem to be on a 2 year swing pattern. Two years the over select, then two years they under select and so on. DV2018 is a return to over selection after two calm years. Over selected years are stressful, because some people have to wait the whole year wondering whether they will get interviewed or not. I understand that feeling – I was in DV2014 – the most over selected year I know of. So – there was a lot of nervousness for many people and I remember that feeling well.
Will DV2018 go current?
No. Not all regions at least, and possibly no regions.
When we see current for a region it means there are more than enough visas remaining for remaining cases. So – everyone in a region that is current, can get an interview (except if the country is numerically stopped in the VB (Visa Bulletin) as has been the case in some years).
DV2016 and DV2017 went current because they had a low number of selectees. DV2018 is clearly different, and more like DV2015. I am certain that some regions cannot go current. I haven’t had time to work on numbers and I prefer to not predict final numbers these days, but some regions are obviously over selected. OC for instance is massively over selected – with case numbers up to OC26XX. In DV2015 the highest OC case number to get interviewed was 1489. So – there is obviously many OC cases that won’t be getting a chance for an interview.
SA also looks over selected, even with the additional increase in quota.
Other regions are less easy to judge – partly because I don’t have the highest case numbers. Over the next few days I will use previous years data to try and confirm the highest case numbers selected – but at this point all I can say is that there must be some risk for AS, EU and AF regions highest case numbers. Now – I know I am going to be flooded by people asking “am I safe” – so let me say this. There is NO POINT in worrying or asking me if you are safe if your numbers are below these numbers.
AF45XXX (Egypt may have a cutoff)
EU37XXX (UPDATE after CEAC data available – this number seems to high to be safe. Later analysis shows the “risk zone” could start as early as 33XXX)
AS8XXX (Nepal could be considered safe below AS7000)
OC13XX
SA15XX
Those numbers are conservative numbers that I consider safe without much risk at all. It does not mean the cutoffs won’t be higher than those numbers, but if your number is above those numbers you might be at some risk. However, I don’t have a crystal ball and whilst I can calculate rough numbers based on historical information, I am not in a position to give accurate predictions. So – if you ask me for predictions, I will simply answer “wait and see”. If you ask me multiple times, you will find that I ignore you. So please – try and respect my time by reading the information I am providing here and accept that we have a long time (about 1 year) before we know how DV2018 will end.
As best as I can tell, through people reporting their case numbers to me and calculation based on this years selectee counts the maximum case numbers for selectees this year are in these ranges.
AF – Reported early 50,000 range, but I calculated the highest numbers should be at least 60,000.
EU – Reported early 40,000 range, but I calculated the highest numbers should be around 45000.
AS – Reported 13XXX – and that seems a bit low for the selectee numbers released.
OC – Reported 26XX – and that seems about right for the selectee numbers released.
SA – Reported 25XX, but I calculated the highest numbers should be around 3000.
Will there be a second draw in DV2018?
No – as we can now see, they have more than enough selectees for each region – so there is no point in having a second draw.
So how many Green Cards can be given out to each region?
The DV program has 55,000 visas allocated each year. However, the NACARA program is given up to 5,000 of those visas, so we actually can see a number of visas awarded between 50,000 and 55,000. In practice a busy year will see as many as 52,000 to 53,000. DV2017 won’t even see that many awarded since there are not enough selectees in that year.
The visas are allocated to each region proportionally, based on a complex formula which uses populations in each region. So – the regions can receive the following percentages. The percentage would apply to the final global number – so you can apply these percentages to 50,000, and in the end they may give slightly more in each region if the global total goes slightly above 50,000 (by using some of the visas allocated to NACARA).
AF – 43.15%
EU – 36.63%
OC – 1.58%
AS – 15.61%
SA – 3.01%
This year a new country was made eligible – Ecuador in SA region. That means SA have had a small increase in available quota. Comparing quotas to DV2015, AF has slightly higher in DV2018, EU and AS are slightly reduced and OC is unchanged.
Differences that could affect this year.
DV2017 Photos.
Every year the instructions say to use a photo less than 6 months old. However in previous years, disqualification on the grounds of an old photo was rare because it was hard to p[rove the photo was old. However, in DV2018 instruction there was a new instruction that said “Submitting the same photograph that was submitted with last year’s entry (DV-2017) will result in disqualification.” Of course some people choose to not read the instructions or do read them but ignore them. So – I know we have lots of selectees that have re-used DV2017 photos. Theoretically, those entries could have been disqualified before results were announced, but they weren’t. So – there could be a directive to the embassies to disqualify those case, OR they might leave that up to the discretion of the embassy/CO. At this point, we have no idea how that will be handled – the COs may disqualify cases for that reason, or they may just ignore that instruction. But if cases are disqualified for that reason that could mean higher case numbers get a chance.
The Trump “Administration”
Trump has already clumsily tried to interfere with immigration matters since his term began. The “travel bans” are currently suspended by the courts, but the government could appeal, they might win (I don’t think so, but possible) or they could try to implement some other sort of ban. We just don’t know. Trying to predict what Trump will do is like trying to predict what a donkey will do next. The “donkey” probably has no idea himself. However, he could have issued orders to immigration officials to be more stringent in background checks. That would slow processing, particularly on AP cases. So – this is a factor that could affect some regions (AF and AS).
Agents.
There has been a staggering increase in entries in recent years. DV2015 had 14 million entries and derivatives, and by DV2018 that number has risen to 24 million. I know agents have been more active in several countries and have been registering people in huge numbers. In some countries the agents are honest and provide a helpful service with no ill intention. Nepal is like that. BUT in more countries agents are ruining the lottery process. They register as many people as possible, often with little regard for accuracy in the eDV entry. They then blackmail winners by withholding the winning case number details unless the person agrees to pay a large additional fee or agrees to a sham marriage. Agents like that are scumbags. I advise everyone to steer clear of them. However, when agents are involved the chances of refusal are higher. In Ghana for instance around 80% of cases will be refused at interview. This is because agents gave bad information on the entry, then people try and produce fake documents and so on. So – Ghanaian agents swamp the lottery with over 2 million entries and then reduce the chances of approval through their involvement. So – since there are so many more entries this year, I am guessing that is agent involvement and I expect some countries to experience increased refusal rates.
Why do I often answer “read the instructions”?
I get a lot of questions from people on information they should know if they had read the official instructions on how to process the case. So – when I say “read the instructions” – it means read the link provided in the 1NL – which is also here.
Other points to note:
Much of what I write is speculation based on little information. The only way to be certain of the future is to wait until the future arrives!
Some terms I may use:
Derivative rate – how many people per case number. Varies by country and region, but world average is 1.6 – meaning each case accounts for the principal winner and 0.6 of a derivative.
Derivative growth rate – Winners get married and have children during the year. That increases the derivative rate, again varies by country and region, but this can mean a significant increase in applicants. More explanation about derivative rate and growth rate here.
Density – Because of the limited countries, some countries have an increasing number of “holes” in upper number ranges. For instance, in AF region, there will only be 250 actual cases per 1000 case numbers at the highest number ranges (50,000 and above). So – the cases are less “dense”. More explanation about density here.
Non response rate – People that never submit their DS260. More explanation about response rate here.
No shows – people that submit their DS260 but don’t show up for interview.
AP – Administrative Processing. A period of waiting after interview when additional checks are made or missing documents obtained.
OK – hope that helps! If you don’t understand something above – please go back and read everything again slowly. There is LOTS of information here to understand, so it takes some time to sink in.
September 9, 2017 at 11:39
hi brit I want to know why this vb is late?
September 9, 2017 at 11:53
It isn’t late. They have until the 15th. It won’t be late until the 16th.
September 12, 2017 at 22:36
hi brit is 2018eu37000 still a safe number, i have a 2018eu35xxx number and im reading comments that 2018eu37000 in not a safe number yet. what are the safest numbers of interviews for europe this year?
September 12, 2017 at 22:59
Nothing has changed from my comments above.
September 13, 2017 at 07:16
OCTOBER VISA BULLENTINE HAVE INCREASED BY LOW FIGURE IN AF REGION. FROM 8500 TO 8600.
WHAT COULD BE THE CAUSE OF THAT?
September 13, 2017 at 13:43
https://britsimonsays.com/visa-bulletin-for-november-2017-interviews-released/
September 13, 2017 at 07:24
Hi BritSimon
I registered myself in DV2018 with the same photo from DV2017 and i selected for DV in 2018,What do you think that is photo effect to my Cause or No? My Cause Number is AS49xx .
September 13, 2017 at 13:40
We don’t yet know whether they will disqualify cases like that.
September 14, 2017 at 12:00
You say may Egypt cut off . Find u think in any number, Egypt is safe
September 14, 2017 at 12:58
I don’t know
September 14, 2017 at 22:16
Hello Mr. Simon. I was analyzing the history of DV cutoff numbers and I saw that the cutoff for Asia region in DV 2015 was really low, exactly 7650. Others years it went to current or at least a number above 13000. Is there any explanation as to why they limited only Asian visas while other regions stayed the same on DV 2015?
September 15, 2017 at 04:43
Well – they met the quota. The density after Nepal and Iran are stopped is very low in Asia – so – that number is not that much lower than 10000 for instance. Outside of Nepal and Iran, the “rest of Asia” accounts for less than 200 cases every 1000 case numbers.
September 16, 2017 at 05:06
I understand that. But still that doesn’t explain why its so much more different than the other years. Thanks in advance.
September 16, 2017 at 14:30
Yes it does actually. It means that after NEpal and Asia are out, the case number jumps in Asia can be very big. 5000 case numbers might only yield 500 to 700 people.
September 17, 2017 at 04:34
Do you have an idea
What’s the approximate winning chance for AS region?
Number of entries received from Nepal and Iran in 2017 , 2016 [this information is not yet published in DV statistics site]
Just to get an idea about how Selectee randomly distributed in AS region
September 17, 2017 at 04:39
Use 2014 and 2015 to get an idea.
September 15, 2017 at 09:42
Hi Simon
Based on above article, it seems allocated DV2018 Visa for AS region would be around 8000. When I went through your previous articles, it seems, AS region response rate is around 70%, Considering response rate, no show, holes in numbers ….etc.
1) What would be the possible cut off level for AS region, depend on historical data patterns [any guess] ?
2) Article said based on the information you have, maximum cases number of AS for 2018 is around AS13XXX, is it the maximum case number you know as at today for AS region?
3) If you have any link contains, DV2015 Total Number of Selectee’s from AS region and maximum case number of AS region , please share
4) Apart from regional % , is there any place , we can get country based number of DV visa issued in each year
Thanks for your time
KF
September 15, 2017 at 13:33
1. No guess
2. I don’t have a precise number
3. I have published information like that – you’ll need to search
4. https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/immigrate/diversity-visa/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html
September 15, 2017 at 11:06
The case number AF20xxx in Egypt
This case number is safe or it in risk??
September 15, 2017 at 13:29
THis is the 6th time you asked this, and I have answered. Don’t ask me again.
October 14, 2017 at 14:37
I think it is safe and stop stressing around.
September 15, 2017 at 13:38
Hello, i want to ask 1 question. My number is AS8XXX so can i received 2NL in this year(2017). Note: i already submit DS260 since the end of May-2017.
September 15, 2017 at 13:48
There are no more visas in DV2017. I don’t know why you did not get an interview. My guess is that you missed the email. So – check your ESC page.If you have September interview you may have a chance.
October 11, 2017 at 14:11
Dear Britsimon
Sorry for made you confuse.
I meant that I got selected for DV2018 and my case number is AS8XXX. I have submitted DS-260 since middle of May-2017 so do you know when can I receive 2NL?
October 11, 2017 at 19:49
Wait and see.
September 15, 2017 at 15:58
Hi Brits
I have 2 questions for you and thanks on advance
1-if I manage to get my documents from the government in English “native language is Arabic” do I still have to translate it “it make no sense isn’t ”
2-if I got the visa for me and my family,do they have to travel with me from the beginning,or they can catch me later after I settle down “work,home,etc”
Thanks again for your help
KOMA Elwan
September 15, 2017 at 16:49
1. No
2. If you are the principal selectee they can travel with or after you – within the expiry date on their visas.
September 15, 2017 at 20:46
I know that you answered this question several times ,and I looked at the FAQ but couldn’t find the best answer for me,if I just submitted the forms 260 last week and got case number below 300 AS , is this make any sense to you.
Thanks on advance
September 15, 2017 at 23:07
I don’t understand your question.
September 16, 2017 at 04:44
I think my case number is very low as3xx,and I only submitted my forms last week in sep ,and the system was open since may ,so is it make sense that since may only 300 forms was submitted .
Thanks on advance
September 16, 2017 at 04:49
No that doesn’t make sense. No one suggested that was the case.
September 16, 2017 at 04:56
Sorry i didn’t got this,is this mean there is still places in 2018 for me,and is it possible that the interview to be this year,
September 16, 2017 at 14:31
Yes of course. No one said there wasn’t.
September 29, 2017 at 05:58
Hi Brit
Thanks again for your support but I still have some questions/inquiry
1-the case number is issued on may with the 1st letter
2-only you will have interview after submitting the 260 form
3-this mean that low case number and late submitting means low chance or late date
4-or high case number and early submitting means high chance and early date
5-or low case and early submitting means very high chance and early date
So the low case number is not always means good chance isn’t
6-I have as case number 2xx but I submitted in sep and the as because I was born in Asia but my nationality is Egyptian so I will have my interview in egypt so should I keep looking in the bulletin in Africa or Asia
Thanks on advance
September 29, 2017 at 13:39
1. Yes
2. Yes (the DS260 must be processed, and your case must be current)
3. Late date
4. No.
5. Early date.
6. Asia
September 29, 2017 at 14:06
Thanks a lot for question no 6, it will be Asia and based on question 3 late date but I am still safe and have a good chance based on my low case number and late submission for my form?
October 13, 2017 at 15:07
Hi Brit
How we know our CI status and if it is current is this mean that it is confirmed that I will have my chance and have an interview
October 13, 2017 at 16:14
Be patient.
October 17, 2017 at 16:44
Hi Brit
I checked with KCC and they told me that my ci 2018as24x is current now but I still didn’t receive my 2nd email,also I saw a lot of questions about the pic “is this the pic that I uploaded it with the dv form in 2017” if yes is it a problem that I submitted the same pic in 2016 as I don’t remember , if there anything I can do about it ,also do I have to submit anything now or I just wait for my interview date,
Thanks a lot for your help and support
October 17, 2017 at 17:12
You simply have to wait for the 2NL (interview date).
Regarding the photo – using a photo from 2016 was foolish, but it probably won’t create a problem. There is nothing you can do about it.
October 18, 2017 at 19:35
Hi Brit
thanks again for your help, i just received my 2nd email with date and location of my interview, not sure what happen but my interview location @Kuwait which is my city of born while i live in Cairo Egypt and i am Egyptian , and i checked my form DS 260 and found that i left the interview blank “which i am sure i didn’t ” so they put my location at my city of born while on all my communication with KCC and in the form my residency @Cairo Egypt, so i phoned KCC and they told me they can do nothing for me i have to contact both Kuwait & Egypt embassies to see what they , can do to me. so do you think it is a big issue that i should PANIC as i can’t fly with my family to Kuwait , or it is something happened before and easy fix
Thanks again for you help
October 18, 2017 at 19:48
Do what they told you to do. Contact Egypt, ask if they will schedule your interview, then contact Kuwait and ask then to send it to Egypt. It may cause you delays – but you say you can’t attend the interview in Kuwait, so you have no choice.
October 18, 2017 at 19:59
thanks for your quick response , based on your experience is this difficult issue to relocate my interview ,
October 18, 2017 at 23:22
Results vary.
November 3, 2017 at 08:33
Hi Brit
As per your suggestion I contact Cairo office and they accepted my case in Cairo office ,and told me to check by the end of Nov,then after 4 days they contact me to inform me that the interview will be same day on Dec in Cairo office ,my question is the 2nd letter is still saying my interview locations will be in Kuwait and when I asked the Cairo office during the call if this will change they told me no,it can be as it is no change in the letter , we just informed you with the new location and date! , My question are
1-do I have to contact them and ask for confirmation or change in the letter/website
2-I don’t have prove that my location will be in Cairo,will the security even let me enter the embassy
Thanks a lot for your help and support
November 3, 2017 at 14:14
KCC won’t change the letter on the website. What you need to enter Cairo embassy is up to you to ask the Cairo embassy.
September 16, 2017 at 15:13
Hi mr brit,
thank you for your information
Q1: is egypt have low case number (below AF24xxx) so it is explanation for going the VB slowly in egypt ??or there are another reason
Q2: do you think kcc will make cut off to egypt ?? and the cot off will be in which number ??
sorry for waste your time but i want a clear answer to be safe
September 16, 2017 at 15:50
1. The VB really isn’t going slowly at all. There are 12 months in a year. The pace will increase a bit in a few months. Relax and be patient.
2. I don’t know.
September 16, 2017 at 16:07
ok thank you very much
another question please
Q: my mother won in dv2018(family) and i will be 20 years old next year .my age allow me to travel with my family to usa or prevent me??
September 16, 2017 at 17:17
No problem.
September 16, 2017 at 18:00
Is the same way in SA? The embassy will attend like 130-150 dv case each month or a similar number?
September 17, 2017 at 00:08
The SA embassies would have far less than that individually.
September 17, 2017 at 01:00
October was 190 and november was 135 cases. What do you think could be the number of cases monthly for SA?
September 17, 2017 at 01:29
That is not the number of cases/interviews. It is case NUMBERS. But anyway – something around 130 to 200 is a good pace for SA.
September 16, 2017 at 15:29
Hello, Brit
I have a doubt, though I’m not certain, that I submitted the same photo in both DV2017 and 2018.
However, in DV2017 I was listed as a child in my parents’ applications, but in 2018 I participated in the lottery as an independent applicant.
Does this even matter, or are my chances of disqualification, based on the old photos used, the same?
Thank you
September 16, 2017 at 15:54
That may not be important as you were a derivative in the previous case.
September 16, 2017 at 15:57
Thanks a lot
September 22, 2017 at 00:49
Hello brit , am from Ethiopia and I submitted my ds 260 on may yet I didn’t receive the second notification letter , my case no is 115XX so please tell me if I should contact kcc or if you can predict for me .
Thanks.
September 22, 2017 at 00:51
Oh I forgot to include it’s the 2018 case
September 22, 2017 at 01:10
THat number isn’t current yet. All you need to do is wait. I don’t have a prediction of when you will interview. Patience.
September 22, 2017 at 15:59
Hi Brits…
Please, when u say the” Number isn’t current yet” what does that mean?
Im asking because when I log on to the my page, what I see at the top right hand is “ur case is currently with the kcc.
Is that what u mean? Does it mean my case is current or its different from the above mentioned point?
September 22, 2017 at 16:29
https://britsimonsays.com/read-visa-bulletin/
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/
September 22, 2017 at 19:32
Thanks, this is just the article I was looking for.
September 23, 2017 at 18:05
hiii when can start dv 2019
September 23, 2017 at 18:12
https://britsimonsays.com/dv-2019-enter-dates-announced/
September 23, 2017 at 18:15
when dv 2018 second round in case number 2018AF 15xxx IS SCHEDULE?
September 23, 2017 at 18:21
I don’t know. Wait and see
September 26, 2017 at 11:12
Hi BritSimon,
Do you think the “safe” numbers below still stand or should they be revised after the recent issue with visas being ran out?
“you are safe if your numbers are below these numbers.
AF45XXX (Egypt may have a cutoff)
EU37XXX
AS8XXX (Nepal could be considered safe below AS7000)
OC13XX
SA15XX”
September 26, 2017 at 11:51
I don’t plan to revise them for now. The most “optimistic” number there is EU.
September 28, 2017 at 10:43
Hi, Sorry for asking this. Can you explain your second sentence please. Thank you in advance.
September 28, 2017 at 13:22
I meant that out of all the numbers I had given as safe rangers, the one that sounds out as being optimistic (higher than perhaps it should be) is the EU number of EU37XXX
September 28, 2017 at 21:42
Hi Mr. Simon
So, EU higher case numbers above the safe number have more chances compared to the other regions. Is that right? Thank you.
September 28, 2017 at 22:48
LOWER numbers BELOW the safe numbers have a higher chance. But to define what lower/higher mean EU1 is LOWER than EU10.
September 28, 2017 at 13:06
Winners from EU with numbers higher than 30XXX are probably freaking out at the moment (including myself)… Do you have an idea how far down it should be to be more realisitc?
September 26, 2017 at 17:39
Hi Brits,
1.) Looking at the above post on numbers that are safe,
I guest those of us with high numbers such as 2018AF00047xxx, precisely from Cameroon, should immediately give off…I suppose?
2.) In case we are invited for interview, looking at the cut off and visas ran off, do u think it will be necessary for us to spend money for medicals and interview fee knowing fully well that our numbers are very high?
September 26, 2017 at 19:26
1. No. I did not say that.
2. Y ly book the medicals when they schedule you for an interview – and at that time they allocate the visas to the case.
September 28, 2017 at 14:36
Thanks Brits for all the helpful info.
Now that the new travel ban has been released by Trump in which he has banned all immigrant visas for Iranians, should all Iranian winners of 2018 give up on their interview? Or the interview will be held but they may not issue the visa.
There are a lot of ambiguity for the Iranian winners and I could not find any official information on the “Travel.state.gov” website. They have announced a number for Iranians for October and even November.
Any explanation will be very helpful and much appreciated!
September 28, 2017 at 15:50
Anyone under the ban might be able to process with a waiver – but those are hard to achieve. So – while the ban is in force, the chances for Iranians are not good. There is a chance that someone successfully challenges the ban, but I think that is less likely than before because it is more reasonably worded than the previous ban.
For Iranians there is also the prospect of LONG periods of AP in the majority of cases. So – assuming the ban got lifted within the next 3 or 4 months it might be some hope for Iranians, BUT if an Iranian case were to be interviewed in the latter half of the year, there is a significant chance that the AP delay will mean the case cannot be approved anyway.
So – for now, only Iranians with dual citizenship of a non banned country should proceed. The rest should probably delay their interviews and wait to see what happens in the next few months.
September 28, 2017 at 16:14
Thanks a lot for the thorough reply. I understand that the long AP would simply cancel our chances since it highly impacted DV2017 Iranian winners too. We are at the stage to be very lucky to be selected for DV2018 but very unlucky to be in Trump era. Life goes on as always. 🙂
September 28, 2017 at 17:13
Indeed
September 28, 2017 at 19:04
Hi! I have couple of questions about 5th paragraph of this post…
1) Where do you get information about the quantity of original applications for specific country (1,5 mln for Ghana in your example).
2) I think my case is an exception from this rule (“countries limited in this way have all their selectees concentrated in lower case numbers”). My CN is 34*** in DV2018 and I’m from Russia. This CN can’t be called “low”)))))
September 28, 2017 at 19:29
1. Official stats are available up to 2015. Google DV lottery statistics.
2. No – that would make sense. I don’t know when Russia got capped. That is why I said they had “at least” double the entries. They might not have capped Russia until very late in the numbers. The more selectees that enter for a country, the earlier the cap is applied.
September 29, 2017 at 18:44
hii brit ,
I have a big doubt that is I have completed my DS260 form this september 24th and I got a case number AS10xx . But how is it possible ? because I filled too long from the opening day which is May 2017 . will any chance to get interview ?
I’m a full time student. so is any possibility for me ?
September 29, 2017 at 19:08
The delay in completing the DS260 doesn’t matter. In time you will get an interview. Just be patient.
September 30, 2017 at 04:15
Thank you brit !
I just want to ask another question..
If you have any ideas regarding that please share with me ..
What kind of questions will be asked in the interview ? Give me some ideas with EXAMPLES please brit ..
September 30, 2017 at 16:58
They might ask did you read the FAQ of my site!
https://britsimonsays.com/faq/what-questions-will-be-asked-in-the-interview/
October 1, 2017 at 19:36
Hi Brit, I got randomly selected and I then completed all the informations I am now waiting for the interview, but you said they start the 1st of October with the interviews, and that they inform you 4-6 weeks before. Is it normal that I have not been contacted yet?
October 1, 2017 at 19:47
The interviews start on October 1 but are spread out over the full year – processed in case number order. So – depending on your case number you will have to wait your turn.
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/
October 4, 2017 at 03:12
Hello Mr. Brit,
I am trying to figure out a couple of things on what you are writing above about the allocation percentages. So if we take EU for example, with 36.63% of the 50K visas, that’s almost 18300 visas for EU. So my questions are:
1) I understand that we can not divide them equally to 63 EU countries because there are some who have 4 cases and others who have 4500 cases like Albania and Russia each. I also understand that no country can take more than 7% of the assigned visas ( not more than 1282 visas). So can you explain to me how this is going to work? I guess its simple math or simple logic but I would really like to know.
2) These countries that have 4500 cases might get the 7% (if they have small numbers), how are the rest of the visas going to get divided among other EU countries? How many chances do countries like Greece have with 171 cases or Ireland with 123 cases? Especially if they are in high numbers?
Kind Regards,
Dim
October 4, 2017 at 04:17
1. Visas are not assigned to countries. Selectees are processed in number order, nothing to do with country. High cases can miss out if visas are exhausted. The 7% is based on worldwide quota – so 3500.
2. See 1
October 4, 2017 at 04:29
Ok thank you it’s clear now.
And in what circumstances do higher numbers get an interview and possibly a visa?
October 4, 2017 at 04:52
If the visas don’t run out.
October 4, 2017 at 18:55
Hello Simon, I know you have explained alot about the visa bulletin. But please one more clarification.
I saw the number 8,600 for Africa(November) what does it mean exactly? Secondly, my number is AF24xxx what does this number(8,600) mean to me(AF24xxx)? Is there any relation between those two numbers? Thanks
October 4, 2017 at 22:49
You have to wait until the published umber of 8600 exceeds your number.
Please use the FAQ.
https://britsimonsays.com/read-visa-bulletin/
October 7, 2017 at 16:15
Hello Simsom I have received first letter 3days ago
Is it late for second letter submission ?
October 7, 2017 at 17:15
No
October 8, 2017 at 18:37
Hello I am from Eritrea and I submitted my ds 260 on jun yet I didn’t receive the second notification letter , my case no is 2018AF47XXX so please tell me if I should contact kcc or if you can predict for me .
Thanks.
October 9, 2017 at 03:08
Your number is high so you won’t hear anything until next summer.
October 9, 2017 at 03:14
Hi, my CN number is AS8xxx I have summited DS-260 since middle of May-2017 and till now I don’t receive any information of 2NL so do you know when can I receive it?
October 9, 2017 at 13:58
middle of 2018.
October 8, 2017 at 20:07
Britsimon,plz help should I check my intery,for the second time,my no is,20184GYKPVZJG3ZJ,informing me to check, between,may,2,2017 and September,30,2018,CN igo now for the second,check,if am selected.
October 9, 2017 at 02:46
Check whenever you want.
October 9, 2017 at 14:11
Hi Brit, I follow you from the beggining, thank you for you time in advance. What do you think, I have 23xxx EU number for 2018, Do you think I have chances to be called for the interview? thanks again.
October 9, 2017 at 17:16
You have your answer in the article above.
October 9, 2017 at 14:29
Dear brit
I have three questions
I hope you’ll answer each for me!!
Q1: iam somali by birth. Iam also dual national with djibouti too how will the new ban effect me dv2019?
Q2: i entered dv2018 with somalia my birth country, can i change my country of birth/eligibility to djibouti in this dv2019 to avoid the new ban?
Q3: a country with a big number of dv entries and a country with a small num of dv entries, which one will get more selectees in the lottery????
Thanks alot
October 9, 2017 at 17:19
1. You are exempt from the ban if travelling on your Djibouti passport.
2. No. Don’t EVER lie in official forms.
3. More entries = more selectees.
October 9, 2017 at 15:38
Dear, please explain this for me.
how does every country gets 7% of the dv selectees? Thank you v much
October 9, 2017 at 18:03
They don’t. That is a MAXIMUM LIMIT thanno single country can exceed. It does NOT mean each country gets 7%.
October 11, 2017 at 08:31
Hi I have a problem on how to get a list of authorized physicians for the medical examination
October 11, 2017 at 13:46
The embassy provides that information on their websites or in other forms (sometimes with the 2NL)
October 11, 2017 at 14:06
Pls my case number is AF22***,in Ghana what can be my ideal time for interview
October 11, 2017 at 19:50
Wait and see.
October 11, 2017 at 14:15
And pls that’s the case numbers issued on continental bases or Country wise..i.e AF 22*** in Ghana means over 20,000 selectees were from Ghana alone.Thank you
October 11, 2017 at 19:49
The number is for the whole region.
October 13, 2017 at 10:39
Hi Simon,
Thanks so much for this blog! My case number is OC11XX and I sent in my DS260 back in May. I want to correct some of my work history info but wanted your advice on whether it was smart to ask for it to be unlocked if it has potentially been processed already? Will this delay my interview or look bad?
Appreciate your guidance!
October 13, 2017 at 14:07
No delay no problem.
October 13, 2017 at 19:16
Thank you for your website and your effort to explain us everything about US Visa Lottery
October 14, 2017 at 11:03
Hi Brits,
thanks for ur explanations.
can I please know the highest CN considered for 2017 dv?
I mean the highest case number for Africa and on the be precise, invited for nterview?
October 14, 2017 at 12:40
2017AF42712
October 14, 2017 at 20:52
Hello Brit.
I submitted a duplicate passport image this year, 2017, when applying for DV lottery. Am I liable for disqualification if I resubmit my application before the DV lottery deadline using a different image?
Thanks for your kind assistance.
October 14, 2017 at 21:39
You have been given a second chance. Use a new photograph.
October 14, 2017 at 21:39
Do you mean regarding a DV2019 entry?
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2019-entry-period-restarted/
October 16, 2017 at 17:59
PLEASE HELP!!!
case id begin with three letters, followed by teen digits.
for example: GUZ1234567890 «—-(PLEASE HELP ME I CAN’T FIND THIS CASE ID)
diversity visa case number begin with a year followed by two letters and then eight numbers for example: 2012AF00012345
tell me on with document i can find this CASE ID
THANK YOU GUYS!
October 16, 2017 at 19:25
You don’t have a case id, you use the DV case number.
October 18, 2017 at 22:51
Hi,
Just to inquire the following;
If a sellectee fills the DS 260 FORM in MAY and later in SEPTEMBER, applies for it to be unlocked for certain corrections to be made and re-submitted…
1. Which of the dates will kcc considered as the date of submission? MAY or September?
October 18, 2017 at 23:46
It doesn’t cause delay.
October 19, 2017 at 05:30
Hello Mr. Simon, thanks for so much information, it´s been very helpful for me. I would only ask for a clarification and an advice.
1- It´s possible to make an application for DV-2019, considering that I was selected in DV-2018? And taking into account that my CN is pretty safe SA07XX?
2- Would you advice to do that?
Thanks in advance for your help!
October 19, 2017 at 12:43
1. No problem in entering again.
2. Sure – why not.
October 20, 2017 at 20:38
Hi Simon, please I want to find if KCC have reached my case number, i filled the DS260 form at the end of the month May, please is there way I can check it online to know when I will recieve a mail?
October 20, 2017 at 22:39
https://britsimonsays.com/read-visa-bulletin/
October 21, 2017 at 03:54
Hello britsimon,
First of all i would like to thank you for your kind information. I am from ethiopia and i am a winner of dv 2018, my case number is af11xxx, I have submitted my ds260 very late (october 1 2018) but still the current visa bulletin cutt of number is around 6300,,for ethiopia. Will my case process on time or will it put on backlog? I was a university student starting from 2015 ,but i have left my university and started a nw buissenes after attending 3 semister courses at university.but when i filled my ds 260 i put my educational level university,,under study no degree…will this cause a problem at the embassy? Thanks for answering my question,God blese you!
October 21, 2017 at 04:10
Timing – wait and see.
Education, no problem.
October 21, 2017 at 04:20
Hello britsimon again,
If a case number put on backlog,,,how long will it takes to get processed, think 5 months?
October 21, 2017 at 12:39
No. Processing is fast these days. Stop worrying about things that haven’t happened.
October 21, 2017 at 13:24
Hi Simon
I am a selectee of dv 2018 CN AF19***
I thought my CN is a little higher…am not sure if am gonna receive z 2NL…can i apply for dv 2019…just in case…??
thanks
October 21, 2017 at 13:47
Yes
October 21, 2017 at 15:54
Today, Trump announced, that there will be no more visa lotteries. I was selected for DV-2018, should i be concerned?
October 22, 2017 at 03:53
It’s nonsense.
October 22, 2017 at 23:21
Hi Brits,
Just to find out the following;
Should a 2018 winner play the 2019 lottery simply because his number is high…say 48xxx and ends up being lucky to have been invited for interview around July 2018… and of wish the 2019 results are usually released in MAY.
1. Now my worry is, should he win the 2019 dv with 28xxx as his CN and proceeds in feeling the DS 260 , only to be invited around July for the 2018 dv, won’t it cause problems?
2. Won’t it be considered as fraud leading to the refusal of visa?
October 23, 2017 at 09:22
Sir,
Britsimon sorry for i have one question. DV lottery is select by first come first application.
October 23, 2017 at 13:27
No – it is random.
October 24, 2017 at 04:04
Hello I am from cameroon and I submitted my ds 260 in jun yet i haven’t receive any email , my case no is 2018AF29XXX so please tell me if I should contact kcc or if you can predict for me .
Thanks.
October 24, 2017 at 12:24
Your case number won’t be ready for several months – patience.
October 24, 2017 at 12:28
Thanks for your response. BUT any approximated period?
October 31, 2017 at 13:06
He already gave you an answer (several months). Stop being disrespectful.
December 14, 2017 at 16:02
Read his comment well sir. You just interpreted his comment wrongly. He didn’t say several months ok.
December 14, 2017 at 17:06
Yes I did say “several months”. Other than that, wait and see.
December 19, 2017 at 17:29
Hello I am from Ethiopia and I submit my D’s 260in October .yet I haven’t receive any E_mail.my case number is 2018AF15xxx.please tell me If I should contact Kcc or if you can predict for me.thanks with regards
December 19, 2017 at 18:16
You are not current yet. be patient.
October 24, 2017 at 13:09
Hi Simon,
I did my interview for dv2018 in Asia on October 16. The interview went well and interviewer said I should be able to get my passport in 3 to 5 days. I didnt receive any slips for other documents. It’s already 7 working days and I haven’t received my passport. I sent email to them on the day 5 and they said my application is still undergoing additional administrative processing. There is no estimated completed time at this point. If any additional documents they need or any update, they will contact me.
Does this means my case went to the real AP that takes a long time? I checked the passport status everyday and it always shows there is no update available for the passport number I submitted. Is there other way I can check my visa status now? Thanks!
October 24, 2017 at 13:20
You can’t check any other way. You just have to wait.