This post is intended to inform the DV2018 selectees with information about the lottery. It will be a long post, so take your time and read it well if you want to understand the lottery process a little better.
As expected, the DV2018 selectee numbers have been published in the latest visa bulletin. So – if you are interested, you can see how many people have been selected in each country. The selectee number includes derivatives (family) who are included on the principal selectees case. The global and regional quotas (the 50,000 Green Cards available) also includes derivatives – so a family of 5 takes 5 out of the 50,000.
In the visa bulletin we have several important pieces of information. First the number of entries – nearly 15 million entries (23 million people including family). That is the highest entry count I have seen, so if you were selected you have been very lucky. Then we have the selectee counts per country and the total for global selectees – 115,968. So – 115,968 people were selected from 23 million people – an average of 1 in 200.
Countries do not get individual quotas either in the draw, or as cases are approved. So – some countries have less selectees because there were a lower number of entries. The draw is random within each region – entries from some countries are not given preference over other countries. There is however a rule that states that no single country can take more than 7% of the global visa count. So that means no one country can receive more than (approximately) 3500 visas. That is a MAXIMUM number, not an allocation. Realistically, the only countries that have a likely chance of hitting that limit is Nepal and Egypt. Both those countries have high selectee counts AND a high approval rate. Other countries could have just as many selectees, but will not have such a high approval rate. It is for that reason that Nepal and Egypt will probably have a limit in place in the final VB of DV2017 – because at some point, KCC predict the 7% limit will be hit, so they stop inviting selectees to interview. I do not know where that number will end for DV2017 or DV2018 – so if anyone asks, they will get the “wait and see” answer.
Some countries have been “limited” in the draw already. So for example, Ghana has probably had far more than 1.5 million entries – probably over 2 million people including family members. However we can see they “only” received 3549 selectees (whereas they should have had around 10,000 selectees). Other countries show the same effect. These countries are Ghana, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nepal, Iran, Russia, Uzbekistan and Ukraine, and most likely Liberia and Cameroon. This shows that the draw process is limiting the number of cases or selectees that any one country can receive. The limit is around 4500 selectees, or about 3000 distinct cases. Countries limited in this way have all their selectees concentrated in lower case numbers. At some point the selection process hits the 4500selectee/3000 cases limit and stops selecting people from those countries. So – it will not be a surprise to find that, for example Ghana cases are all in the first 15,000/20000 case numbers. Once the country is stopped, the remaining cases for that country create “holes” which is a case number being skipped. I have explained this in several posts before – but this post explains the draw process and holes well. You will notice in that article that disqualified cases also create holes.
Where can I see the selectee numbers?
The visa bulletin that gives the per country selectee count can be seen here.
The regional selectee count is as follows (with DV2017 / DV2016 numbers for comparison).
AF – 49392 (38500 / 45034)
EU – 41706 (28500 / 27011)
AS – 15997 (13499 / 15002)
OC – 3863 (1450 / 1500)
SA – 4995 (1954 / 3000)
NA – 15
Total – 115,968
Why are there more selectees than visas available?
The government have determined to make around 50,000 Green Cards available through this program, and while they are not obliged to issue them all, they want to issue as many as possible. They know they have to select more people than they have spaces. This is because of the following:
- Some people won’t respond or pursue their opportunity.
- Some will submit their forms but not attend the interview.
- Some will attend the interview but be refused.
- Some will attend the interview and be placed on AP, but then not be able to get cleared before the end of the year.
So – KCC over select, having decided that is the best way to use all the available Green Cards. However, estimating how many “extra people” to select is difficult. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don’t. This year, I believe they have selected too many people – and that means some people will miss out).
Why are there more selectees this year?
Each year USCIS (represented by KCC) decide how many selectees to announce. We have seen wild fluctuations in how many people they invite. Recent years have been like this:
- DV2013 – 105k
- DV2014 – 140k
- DV2015 – 125k (First year of electronic application form DS260)
- DV2016 – 91k
- DV2017 – 83k (plus second draw I estimate around 10k)
- DV2018 – 116k
The “ideal” number of selectees seems to be about 100k. However, we seem to be on a 2 year swing pattern. Two years the over select, then two years they under select and so on. DV2018 is a return to over selection after two calm years. Over selected years are stressful, because some people have to wait the whole year wondering whether they will get interviewed or not. I understand that feeling – I was in DV2014 – the most over selected year I know of. So – there was a lot of nervousness for many people and I remember that feeling well.
Will DV2018 go current?
No. Not all regions at least, and possibly no regions.
When we see current for a region it means there are more than enough visas remaining for remaining cases. So – everyone in a region that is current, can get an interview (except if the country is numerically stopped in the VB (Visa Bulletin) as has been the case in some years).
DV2016 and DV2017 went current because they had a low number of selectees. DV2018 is clearly different, and more like DV2015. I am certain that some regions cannot go current. I haven’t had time to work on numbers and I prefer to not predict final numbers these days, but some regions are obviously over selected. OC for instance is massively over selected – with case numbers up to OC26XX. In DV2015 the highest OC case number to get interviewed was 1489. So – there is obviously many OC cases that won’t be getting a chance for an interview.
SA also looks over selected, even with the additional increase in quota.
Other regions are less easy to judge – partly because I don’t have the highest case numbers. Over the next few days I will use previous years data to try and confirm the highest case numbers selected – but at this point all I can say is that there must be some risk for AS, EU and AF regions highest case numbers. Now – I know I am going to be flooded by people asking “am I safe” – so let me say this. There is NO POINT in worrying or asking me if you are safe if your numbers are below these numbers.
AF45XXX (Egypt may have a cutoff)
EU37XXX (UPDATE after CEAC data available – this number seems to high to be safe. Later analysis shows the “risk zone” could start as early as 33XXX)
AS8XXX (Nepal could be considered safe below AS7000)
OC13XX
SA15XX
Those numbers are conservative numbers that I consider safe without much risk at all. It does not mean the cutoffs won’t be higher than those numbers, but if your number is above those numbers you might be at some risk. However, I don’t have a crystal ball and whilst I can calculate rough numbers based on historical information, I am not in a position to give accurate predictions. So – if you ask me for predictions, I will simply answer “wait and see”. If you ask me multiple times, you will find that I ignore you. So please – try and respect my time by reading the information I am providing here and accept that we have a long time (about 1 year) before we know how DV2018 will end.
As best as I can tell, through people reporting their case numbers to me and calculation based on this years selectee counts the maximum case numbers for selectees this year are in these ranges.
AF – Reported early 50,000 range, but I calculated the highest numbers should be at least 60,000.
EU – Reported early 40,000 range, but I calculated the highest numbers should be around 45000.
AS – Reported 13XXX – and that seems a bit low for the selectee numbers released.
OC – Reported 26XX – and that seems about right for the selectee numbers released.
SA – Reported 25XX, but I calculated the highest numbers should be around 3000.
Will there be a second draw in DV2018?
No – as we can now see, they have more than enough selectees for each region – so there is no point in having a second draw.
So how many Green Cards can be given out to each region?
The DV program has 55,000 visas allocated each year. However, the NACARA program is given up to 5,000 of those visas, so we actually can see a number of visas awarded between 50,000 and 55,000. In practice a busy year will see as many as 52,000 to 53,000. DV2017 won’t even see that many awarded since there are not enough selectees in that year.
The visas are allocated to each region proportionally, based on a complex formula which uses populations in each region. So – the regions can receive the following percentages. The percentage would apply to the final global number – so you can apply these percentages to 50,000, and in the end they may give slightly more in each region if the global total goes slightly above 50,000 (by using some of the visas allocated to NACARA).
AF – 43.15%
EU – 36.63%
OC – 1.58%
AS – 15.61%
SA – 3.01%
This year a new country was made eligible – Ecuador in SA region. That means SA have had a small increase in available quota. Comparing quotas to DV2015, AF has slightly higher in DV2018, EU and AS are slightly reduced and OC is unchanged.
Differences that could affect this year.
DV2017 Photos.
Every year the instructions say to use a photo less than 6 months old. However in previous years, disqualification on the grounds of an old photo was rare because it was hard to p[rove the photo was old. However, in DV2018 instruction there was a new instruction that said “Submitting the same photograph that was submitted with last year’s entry (DV-2017) will result in disqualification.” Of course some people choose to not read the instructions or do read them but ignore them. So – I know we have lots of selectees that have re-used DV2017 photos. Theoretically, those entries could have been disqualified before results were announced, but they weren’t. So – there could be a directive to the embassies to disqualify those case, OR they might leave that up to the discretion of the embassy/CO. At this point, we have no idea how that will be handled – the COs may disqualify cases for that reason, or they may just ignore that instruction. But if cases are disqualified for that reason that could mean higher case numbers get a chance.
The Trump “Administration”
Trump has already clumsily tried to interfere with immigration matters since his term began. The “travel bans” are currently suspended by the courts, but the government could appeal, they might win (I don’t think so, but possible) or they could try to implement some other sort of ban. We just don’t know. Trying to predict what Trump will do is like trying to predict what a donkey will do next. The “donkey” probably has no idea himself. However, he could have issued orders to immigration officials to be more stringent in background checks. That would slow processing, particularly on AP cases. So – this is a factor that could affect some regions (AF and AS).
Agents.
There has been a staggering increase in entries in recent years. DV2015 had 14 million entries and derivatives, and by DV2018 that number has risen to 24 million. I know agents have been more active in several countries and have been registering people in huge numbers. In some countries the agents are honest and provide a helpful service with no ill intention. Nepal is like that. BUT in more countries agents are ruining the lottery process. They register as many people as possible, often with little regard for accuracy in the eDV entry. They then blackmail winners by withholding the winning case number details unless the person agrees to pay a large additional fee or agrees to a sham marriage. Agents like that are scumbags. I advise everyone to steer clear of them. However, when agents are involved the chances of refusal are higher. In Ghana for instance around 80% of cases will be refused at interview. This is because agents gave bad information on the entry, then people try and produce fake documents and so on. So – Ghanaian agents swamp the lottery with over 2 million entries and then reduce the chances of approval through their involvement. So – since there are so many more entries this year, I am guessing that is agent involvement and I expect some countries to experience increased refusal rates.
Why do I often answer “read the instructions”?
I get a lot of questions from people on information they should know if they had read the official instructions on how to process the case. So – when I say “read the instructions” – it means read the link provided in the 1NL – which is also here.
Other points to note:
Much of what I write is speculation based on little information. The only way to be certain of the future is to wait until the future arrives!
Some terms I may use:
Derivative rate – how many people per case number. Varies by country and region, but world average is 1.6 – meaning each case accounts for the principal winner and 0.6 of a derivative.
Derivative growth rate – Winners get married and have children during the year. That increases the derivative rate, again varies by country and region, but this can mean a significant increase in applicants. More explanation about derivative rate and growth rate here.
Density – Because of the limited countries, some countries have an increasing number of “holes” in upper number ranges. For instance, in AF region, there will only be 250 actual cases per 1000 case numbers at the highest number ranges (50,000 and above). So – the cases are less “dense”. More explanation about density here.
Non response rate – People that never submit their DS260. More explanation about response rate here.
No shows – people that submit their DS260 but don’t show up for interview.
AP – Administrative Processing. A period of waiting after interview when additional checks are made or missing documents obtained.
OK – hope that helps! If you don’t understand something above – please go back and read everything again slowly. There is LOTS of information here to understand, so it takes some time to sink in.
January 2, 2018 at 13:39
2018As 9500 is my case number…..my status is at NVC.whats the meaning of it sir?my visa ready?
January 2, 2018 at 15:22
Read this
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-ceac-data-help-needed/
January 2, 2018 at 15:52
Happy New Year Brit!!
I filled my DS260 in May 2017 and also included my 2kids who are not yet legally adopted…I did not fill their DS260 Forms after i read some of your posts….
1) Do i have to edit my DS260 Form and do changes that they will not accompany me??? Or just leave it as that??
Still waiting for my 2NL and checked that my case is At NVC, maybe they are still waiting for my kids DS260 Forms??
I am just wondering and dont know how to proceed to unlock and make amendments or just wait for 2NL…
Thank you so much Brit…
January 2, 2018 at 22:08
You cannot include the kids mentioned, even if you were to finish the adoption now. So – you can edit the form to be most accurate. That confusion is NOT why you are still waiting.
January 2, 2018 at 22:13
Aww Thanks Brit…So i have to Unlock and edit my Form….
Thanks
January 3, 2018 at 14:51
how is visas being divided among countries of a region?
January 3, 2018 at 16:18
Within a region, first come, first served.
January 9, 2018 at 01:46
Thanks for your exhaustive commentary here. Unfortunately based on your analysis and looking at all historical visa bulletins available on the state department website, with an Oceania rank number of 1567, I’m unlikely to have my number come up for processing… Will have my fingers crossed for a September miracle.
February 3, 2018 at 15:16
I am higher than you. OC 16xx:fingers crossed here too. Praying for my miracle.
January 9, 2018 at 03:00
Hi brits..
My case number is 92## .And Is this a high risk?. But my case status is AT NVC..what was that?And i saw 2018AS1 also At NVC..will I reject or select?
January 9, 2018 at 04:46
At NVC is the starting status. It means you are waiting.
Is it high risk – I have no idea. Read the article.
January 9, 2018 at 05:32
Thanks brit..some number’s results are not in database..I mean after my case number and after AS6000 so is this a chance for me? Can I hope with my result or not?. If you know about this one please reply me..
January 9, 2018 at 05:37
What numbers are not in the database???
January 9, 2018 at 08:01
I saw aftet something like 2018AS6000 but my number is available…
January 9, 2018 at 15:21
You are not making any sense. I don’t have the time to get in your mind. Ask clearly if you want an answer.
January 9, 2018 at 08:23
Hello
Love the article I am AF30478, so I should be fine, Just I submitted my DS260 on September 27th and I still havent heard anything back that my DS260 is okay and they said it would take 30-90 days, ever heard of this? and also on my ds260 submission for it says civil documents, do I only take those to my interview and should worry about getting them once my interview date is set? or should I submit them to my consular already? any help would be appreacited
January 9, 2018 at 15:05
You must wait until your number is current.
You take docs to the interview.
January 9, 2018 at 09:01
And my last question is CASE NO 2018AS1 Is also AT NVC.but 2, is issued . What is this?. ARE THEY NOT QUALIFIED?.so I can’t understand
January 9, 2018 at 15:02
Don’t keep asking me over and over again.
Read this.
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-ceac-data-help-needed/
January 9, 2018 at 21:15
Hoppe you are doing well,
I passed the interview and my visa status was Ready, than they asked me for some other documents and I submitted everything, now the status is AT NVC, is it the normal process?
January 9, 2018 at 22:46
No. Did you check the wrong case?
January 11, 2018 at 16:14
Hello brit,
Do I have a brighter future if my case number read AF2018435xx????
check my status and it says AT NVC
January 11, 2018 at 16:41
Yes, you just need to be patient.
January 12, 2018 at 11:47
Thanks BritSimon
January 15, 2018 at 07:35
Thanks for your time
May case number is 2018AF0009X The chance of including interview of this number is High,middel or very low
January 15, 2018 at 14:51
Well I can’t tell whether you mean your number is about 90, or 900 or 9000, or 90000.
January 15, 2018 at 16:30
Hello Brit,
Do you have any explanation for the visa bulletin being late than usual? It is already Jan15 and the bulletin for the month of February is not yet published.
January 15, 2018 at 16:33
Really??
January 16, 2018 at 02:57
Hi Simon,
today is 16th Jan 2018 but i don’t see the visa bulletin for Feb yet. so have any problem with this period or this DV-2018?
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html
January 16, 2018 at 05:27
“Be patient”
January 16, 2018 at 05:30
Meant that everything is fine?
January 16, 2018 at 16:54
https://britsimonsays.com/why-is-the-vb-late/
January 16, 2018 at 16:55
https://britsimonsays.com/why-is-the-vb-late/
January 17, 2018 at 23:56
Hi , happy new year. My vase number is 2018FA21215. When will I receive notification.
January 17, 2018 at 23:58
Wait and see.
January 18, 2018 at 10:07
Hi Brit, my case number is 2018AS10739
And I’m physically present in the United States and I applied for asylum since 2016 can you tell me if I should wait my visa number to appear or there is another process for people who lives in the United States ?.
January 18, 2018 at 14:30
If your number becomes current, you will have a very short time to push your application through. You need to take time to learn the AOS process. It is all explained here:
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2018-aos-only.336256/
January 18, 2018 at 14:45
So I must wait till July or August till my visa number will be available…..right ?
Is one month or two months is enough to do AOS and schedule for interview in you opinion?.
I appreciate your patience .
January 18, 2018 at 14:46
Do as I said.
January 18, 2018 at 22:32
Last few questions:
1-in your opinion when the visa numbers will be current in which month ?.
2-is current means that all visa numbers after the last month are available?.
3-i applies for asylum before I won th dv so is that mean that out of status and I can’t do AOS ?.
4- I called the KCC today to ask them for AOS and she answered that if your visa number won’t be appear at May I think you won’t be able to AOS because there is no enough time, so in that case what should I do ?.
January 18, 2018 at 23:37
1. I have written before that I don’t think that will happen this year – at least not in all regions.
2. “CURRENT” on the VB means that KCC believe there are enough visas for all remaining demand.
3. If you were out of status you cannot do AOS.
4. You will have to decide what to do.
January 19, 2018 at 16:10
Hi Brit.my case number is 2018EU00018***
How do you think? It will be in May.
January 19, 2018 at 17:12
Wait and see
January 19, 2018 at 20:46
Hi Brit, thanks for all the information and experience you share with us. I’m now visiting a country with some limitations with the internet so I can’t check right now if there is already an answer for my question in the blog. I ‘ll be very thankful if you could give some considerations.
My case number will be current on March and I sent my ds-260 on June. The address I put in the form is no longer the address where I want my resident card to be sent, because my relatives recently moved. Do you think would be more appropriate to correct my ds-260 now or just wait until my interview and give the new address at that moment? Thanks in advance for your help.
January 19, 2018 at 22:22
Correct it at the interview.
January 21, 2018 at 23:07
Hi Brit,
I need to see number of selectee for eu by country. I know that information was here in this post but now i cant find it. Can you provide that i formation?
January 22, 2018 at 00:23
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-july-2017.html
January 21, 2018 at 23:30
Hi Mr.Brit,
How are you sir ?.
My case number is 2018AS115**
So in your opinion visa numbers from 11000 and above will be available this year or there is no hope ?. And I saw people from Asia who won the dv lottery 2018 with a visa number above 18000 can you explain what will happen please ?.
Thank you so much Mr.Birt I appreciate your help and your time.
January 22, 2018 at 00:22
I can’t say there is “no hope”. You just have to wait and see.
January 22, 2018 at 02:04
I have another question Mr.Brit in VB of March the exception for Iraq disappeared only Nepal so iwhat’s that mean? And it will affected On number of visa or not?
January 22, 2018 at 02:24
It means Iran is NOT limited – it has the same number as the rest of Asia.
January 22, 2018 at 02:05
I mean Iran sry for that mistake
January 22, 2018 at 09:03
Hi there, am from Ethiopia; my case no is AF….. 13 THOUSAND…. and i filled the DS260 FORM but still not received my appointment to the embassy, i am checking my email daily. can I know the reason??
January 22, 2018 at 14:57
Your number is probably abover 13500. That means your number has only just gone current and you may be notified in about 1 to 2 weeks.
January 23, 2018 at 08:32
heloo is the 2NL IS start ?please
January 23, 2018 at 17:58
Yes
January 24, 2018 at 12:11
thank you very much for your kind support am recive…
January 28, 2018 at 16:23
Hello, Mr. Simon
I want to ask you a question about the number of American lotteries
I am a resident of Europe, I’m from the state of Albania and I am EU36XXX
But the numbers have been slow and so far it has gone to 13800 for March
How much will be the achievement of numbers for Europe
January 28, 2018 at 18:06
Read some of my recent articles like this one.
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-some-further-analysis/
January 29, 2018 at 22:09
I read it to everyone who sent me a link.
but I’m surprised that the numbers for the continent of Europe are moving very slowly compared to 2015 where they are roughly the same number of selected ones
can you give me an answer why these interviews are so sluggish?
January 29, 2018 at 22:16
I have written several articles explaining this recently. A couple of examples:
https://britsimonsays.com/vb-progress-explained-again/
https://britsimonsays.com/interview-capacity-visa-bulletin-pace/
February 4, 2018 at 07:53
Hi Brit,
Im from South Africa. My case is currently at KCC. What does that mean?
February 4, 2018 at 14:33
It means you are waiting to be scheduled once your case number is current.
February 4, 2018 at 11:28
I’m Pennoh Wilson Teh from Liberia my case number is AF201848711 do you think I have a chance for 2NLs for an interview I filled out my DS260 December 6th 2017, you said something about case numbers below 45000 in AF region chances may not be possible.
February 4, 2018 at 14:25
You just have to wait and see.
February 7, 2018 at 17:03
hi mr, could you pls tell me about AF00035*** when will it take place i mean the intervw. first can we cinsider it safe? thank u.
February 7, 2018 at 17:35
Did you read the article above??
February 9, 2018 at 06:20
Hi,
My case is AF41XXX.
I did my DS 260 and submitted january 5th 2018.
When am i likely to get a visa interview call up?
February 9, 2018 at 14:47
Wait and see.
February 26, 2018 at 14:09
Machaa
Please write me as our case numbers are close
[email protected]
February 12, 2018 at 14:35
Hi Brit
I want to know if my medical is not ready can I sat for interview? My case is 2018AF00014811
February 12, 2018 at 23:13
Hi
My case number is 2018AF309XX.
I sent my DS 260 in the end of may.
What you think when I will go to my interview.
Thanks a lot.
February 12, 2018 at 23:16
Once your number is current. I don’t have a prediction for that.
February 13, 2018 at 12:58
My case number is EU2018****36***
I want to ask you how much the number of interviews for the European region will go because I am very anxious because I am a bit high and I would be much quieter if you could explain me a bit
Thank you very much
February 13, 2018 at 17:21
I have written very detailed explanations of that in recent articles. Read them.
February 15, 2018 at 08:25
By you name you are from albania. What is you case number?
February 15, 2018 at 08:50
Eridon, most people here post their question without reading what was posted before. 36xxx – do you want exact number? ?
February 15, 2018 at 09:25
No, i thought he hides some digits before 36xxx. me and him are in the same range of numbers.
February 15, 2018 at 08:18
Hi Brit
My case number is 2018AF00014811
If my medical is not ready can I sat for my interview and do the medical later?
February 15, 2018 at 15:03
In some embassies, yes.
February 15, 2018 at 12:06
Hi Mr Smith
I’m from Benin,i want to know how many ,”visa bulletin” it remains to publish for the 2018 dv lottery and when will an interviews take end?
My CN is AF36xxx
February 15, 2018 at 15:19
Last VB for DV2018 is published in July, for September interviews
February 15, 2018 at 16:27
Ok thank you very much,
And i pray God may they reach my CN before july l o l
February 17, 2018 at 06:47
Hi Brit ,
I have taken a look at the previous VB for the years that have passed and I realized that around April numbers in AF REGION go currennt and even VB no longer show numbers,so which case numbers from AF region feature at the July visa Bulletin?? Thanks
February 17, 2018 at 14:38
Each year is different. Regions go current when they under select. This year is OVER selected.
February 18, 2018 at 13:01
Thanks Brit, please can I know the highest case number that were invited for interview in 2015,2016 & 2017 respectively?? Thanks
February 18, 2018 at 16:11
Take a look at the historical numbers in the link at the top of the page.
February 17, 2018 at 08:32
Hi BritSimon. As I sow the opend VB case numbers have never been less than 33,000. For EU
February 17, 2018 at 14:37
OK – so what?
February 17, 2018 at 14:44
I thing this year will be the same
February 17, 2018 at 16:28
my case number is 33915. I thing my interview will be in july because case numbers opened slow
February 18, 2018 at 13:22
What region?
February 20, 2018 at 11:54
hi birt
my case is redy for april and i recived 2NL in CEAC my case ready bu in the dv chek nothing to change same before write here you have randomly selected
my question is what i need do
thanks for your help with best regards
February 20, 2018 at 14:47
Just wait. Patiently.
February 28, 2018 at 08:01
My case is AF11XXX, I just submitted my D260 yesterday. Is it OK?
February 28, 2018 at 08:08
From Egypt but i am living in Japan
February 28, 2018 at 14:52
Yes that is OK
March 1, 2018 at 00:01
Thank you
March 1, 2018 at 04:42
hi BritSimon, My case eu28000 when I will be invited for an interview?
March 1, 2018 at 06:00
Wait and see.
March 1, 2018 at 16:32
So, Brit, can we see EU33000+ or your opinion has changed? We have 7400 issued visas and 2500 ready cases (5000 potential visas) to EU16000, it means 6000 visas for the remaining numbers – 21000 (from 16000 to 37000). Considering the density 16000-37000 EU numbers – 20-25% (55% – holes, 20-25% no response, i mean) we have 4200-5250 cases or 9500-12000 potential visas of the 6000 remaining visas. Not much, unfortunately.
I don`t panic, but can`t understant how we can see the big numbers. Tnhx.
March 1, 2018 at 16:45
Let’s wait and see the next couple of VB’s.
March 12, 2018 at 17:48
Brit , does the obove calculations seem right to you?
March 12, 2018 at 18:40
Not 100% – but as I said – I want to see the next VB.
March 12, 2018 at 18:44
Brit- that, and another comment from Kerstin, make me very nervous. Do you think it is possible or even likely that the EU estimated cut of will decrease even further? 37-33- even lower??
March 12, 2018 at 18:54
Again. Next VB.
March 12, 2018 at 18:59
omg. so, yes, obviously possible.
March 12, 2018 at 19:04
Brit can you block me from your blog ???? I don’t want te read or comment anymore but can’t help it???
March 12, 2018 at 19:46
Sure. I was just sitting here wondering how I can fill my free time.
March 12, 2018 at 20:43
Dear Brit,
I know your time is valuable and I really, really appreciate your patience and your big help. I promise you that In the end the end of this path and experience, no matter what bad news or good news, I will pay a little appreciation to your blog for your amazing time. Not now , because in the end I also want to tell my story, which it can turn to be out a miracle or just a disappointment.
March 12, 2018 at 21:24
Fingers crossed for you.
FYI, my own case was in DV2014. That was an overselected year and the early thinking was that my number was in a risky range. In the end numbers went faster than expected and I was current in June – BUT the I was delayed by the Field Office and didn’t get my interview until September – knowing all the time that visas could run out at any moment. I do get the stress.
March 12, 2018 at 21:56
Thank you for your support. DV is considered a miracle from every one. My case is a little different and for me wolf be really more than e miracle. I will share my story in the end . Hopefully a good story!
March 1, 2018 at 23:24
Hello sir My case number is 2018AF00018562 when will I be notified for my interview
March 2, 2018 at 00:01
Very soon – your case is scheduled at Monrovia embassy. If you were reading my most recent posts you would know that.
March 3, 2018 at 01:24
Dear sir, I submitted my DS260 one week ago. when I check my visa status I found it at NVC and I found this sentence (Please follow the instructions you received from the National Visa Center (NVC) that list the six steps you must take before NVC can schedule your visa interview appointment. This includes submitting to NVC various fees, forms and documents. Once NVC has received all the required items, they will let you know if anything is missing or incomplete.). However, I didn’t receive any thing and I don’t know any thing about this document? could you please explain to me? Is there is any documents I need to submit? Sorry for bothering you.
March 3, 2018 at 02:33
Ignore everything about NVC. You simply need to wait until your case is current and the DS260 is processed.
March 3, 2018 at 04:12
Thank you for your great help for everyone
March 3, 2018 at 04:37
My case is current now. So, I should wait until they finalize my DS260 without doing anything. is it true?
March 3, 2018 at 07:15
Yes
March 3, 2018 at 01:59
I dont know anything about the following steps:
Step 1: Choose an agent
Step 2: Pay fees
Step 3: Submit visa application form
Step 4: Collect financial documents
Step 5: Collect supporting documents
Step 6: Submit documents to
March 3, 2018 at 07:58
thank you so much you are so kind
March 5, 2018 at 13:18
I am Derdeh from Liberia, my case is 2018AF00050XXX , please do I stand a chance to sit for an interview since the there is only 50 thousands Visa available to be issue.
March 5, 2018 at 17:04
All you can do is wait and see what happens.
March 5, 2018 at 16:07
Hi sir, I am from Nepal and I want to ask a question about what happen when address in edv form filling and address in second letter apply is different. Is it prevents for second letter ?
March 5, 2018 at 16:45
No
March 8, 2018 at 23:53
Hello Brit,
why is it that the process is so slow especially Africa we in Match now and the cutoff numbers are still in 21xxx what is the problem??
March 9, 2018 at 00:19
There isn’t a problem. I have explained before why progress seems slower this year – but in fact – isn’t slower at all.
March 9, 2018 at 16:35
Simon, I see you explained the EU selectee number as 41706 in the post, having been seen the data in January, it’s shown the highest case number to be 39695. I didn’t get what’s wrong with cases above 39695. Have a great day!
March 9, 2018 at 16:41
i think its because 1 case does not equal one person. 1 case can have a married couple and 2 children- all 4 will count as 4 selectees but only one case. So the number of selectees is higher then the number of cases.
March 9, 2018 at 17:05
ithink if one person had selected and he’s married and have 4 children that mean 6 visa for one persone select.
therfor for exemple 50000-6=49994 visa yet.
so i dont think so this year is slow process.
actuely most people select have childern.
March 9, 2018 at 17:13
slow process that mean a lot people with current cases in this month march and other months before.
have lot visas with children.
so idont think so no current regions in this year.
every region in the end of spt had cut off no current.
March 13, 2018 at 02:10
Hello Brit,
I am from Nepal with case number 2018AS6*** and I am waiting for my number to go current which is probably on June or july. I have this query regarding the documents. I was in some other country from 2015-2017 for my study and I was there at the time of filling the lottery as well as the DS 260 form. So, do I need to get the Police Clearance Certificate for my stay there?
And, is it okay to have written the address of one relative and make a sponsorship letter from the other (residing in other address).
I would appreciate your help.
March 13, 2018 at 02:25
Number your questions.
1. Yes you will need a police cert – read the instructions.
2. Yes that is OK.
May 28, 2018 at 08:25
Hi Simon.
I have been selected for 2019. I was in Iraq for few years but there is no way for me to get an Iraqi police certificate. No embassy or consulate here. Can I write an explanation instead? will that be fine?
May 28, 2018 at 12:12
Did you read the reciprocity page for Iraq?
March 13, 2018 at 13:46
Thank you Brit, will remember that. ?
April 18, 2018 at 07:05
Hello SB, did you get to attend the interview?
Can you tell me the maximum rank number possible to be able to get selected in dv lottery?