OK – the new Visa bulletin has been published. The naming convention of the bulletins are odd – because this one is being published in August, is named, the “September” Visa Bulletin and gives the numbers for October interviews. That is a standard pattern regarding the naming convention, but I tend to focus on the interview date availability rather than anything else.

OK – so here are the numbers for October interviews. Remembering that the immigrant ban means no interviews will be held in October unless the ban is blocked.

Now – in a normal month those people that are current (meaning their case number is below the number shown for their region), and have forms processed early enough, would expect their 2NL in about 1 to 2  weeks from now. This is the same every month. VB is normally published from the 8th to the 15th of each month (although more recently it has been published a few days later – around the 17th/18th), and 2NLs in the second half of the month.

However, this month will be different, and because the court case will not be heard until the end of August, I think it is very likely we will not see ANY 2NLs sent out this month at all, and therefore no interviews scheduled for October. None.

To those new to looking at VBs, let me explain what the “except” XXX country means. Some countries have been called out as “exceptions” meaning that selectees chargeable to those two countries (regardless of where they will interview) are subject to a lower VB number for the month than the rest of the region. This is done to slow down processing for countries with a high number of selectees to spread out the workload over a longer time. Please read this linked article on how to read the visa bulletin.

OK – with all that being said, there is a FAR more important piece of information in this Visa Bulletin. As I have been telling people to expect, the number of selectees per country are published in this bulletin. That allows us to calculate how many selectees are chosen overall, and to understand whether this is an under selected or over selected year.

So – the news is not a pleasant, but also not unexpected surprise. There are 132,404 selected applicants from around the world, that number includes principal selectees and derivatives. By normal standards that is an OVER selected year. As I explained a few days ago that happens about half the years – where they select more selectees than they think they will need. This leads to a year of concerns for people, particularly those people with high case numbers. Why high case numbers – well, processing order gives low case numbers the first chance for interview, so as the year progresses, those people with high case numbers have to wait to see if their number ever gets a chance. It is a long, and sometimes unhappy wait. In recent years we have seen cutoffs in place at the end of the year, meaning people with case numbers higher than the final cutoff don’t get an interview.

Other interesting info in the VB is that the selectees were chosen from only 6.7 million qualified entries, which was about 11.8 million people including derivatives. That is about HALF of the typical number of entries, and I would guess that is almost entirely the impact of the new passport rule. As I had explained last year -DV2021 offered the best chance of being selected that we have seen for many years – because less entries increases the chance of selection. The VB also confirms there could be up to 54750 visas available.

Now these are the facts. Now we have to start some analysis of the selectee numbers to figure out where each case lies within the case number ranges. I will be working on that today and will post in the next day or so. But be warned, this year is not going to be easy to predict. We go a hugely important piece of information today, but there is still much we don’t know – so it is too early to be certain how the year will go. The current bans in place may remain, may be expanded, who knows. The court challenges could block at least the immigrant bans. The pandemic could continue to have impact. This is an election year, so with any luck Trump will lose the election then the new administration might remove some or all the ridiculous bans that Trump put in place.

So many factors are in play, so I am going to recommend everyone should remain cautious about predictions and so on because we just don’t know what will happen over the coming months.

Have a look for my analysis over the next day, and I will of course be publishing a video to discuss the information released today.

The following is the statistical breakdown by foreign state of chargeability of those registered for the DV-2021 program:  

AFRICA
ALGERIA  6,001ESWATINI  3NAMIBIA  0
ANGOLA  627ETHIOPIA  3,957NIGER  55
BENIN  830GABON  65RWANDA  1,067
BOTSWANA  3GAMBIA, THE  71SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE  0
BURKINA FASO  83GHANA  3,284SENEGAL  167
BURUNDI  398GUINEA  805SEYCHELLES  4
CABO VERDE  6GUINEA-BISSAU  7SIERRA LEONE  504
CAMEROON  3,686KENYA  2,777SOMALIA  217
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC  22LESOTHO  3SOUTH AFRICA  510
CHAD  191LIBERIA  1,858SOUTH SUDAN  40
COMOROS  10LIBYA  259SUDAN  6,001
CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE  4,503 MADAGASCAR  23TANZANIA  184
CONGO, REPUBLIC OF THE  740MALAWI  32TOGO  1,118
COTE D’IVOIRE  737MALI  103TUNISIA  173
DJIBOUTI  175MAURITANIA  105UGANDA  908
EGYPT  6,002MAURITIUS  12ZAMBIA  67
EQUATORIAL GUINEA  6MOROCCO  4,458ZIMBABWE  276
ERITREA  509MOZAMBIQUE  7 
   
ASIA  
AFGHANISTAN  2,189JAPAN  532QATAR  82
BAHRAIN  19JORDAN  1,578SAUDI ARABIA  1,126
BHUTAN  69KOREA, NORTH  3SINGAPORE  40
BRUNEI  1KUWAIT  302SRI LANKA  1,566
BURMA  776LAOS  43SYRIA  487
CAMBODIA  1,174LEBANON  249TAIWAN  693
HONG KONG S.A.R.  569MALAYSIA  95THAILAND  290
INDONESIA  317MALDIVES  0TIMOR-LESTE  0
IRAN  6,001MONGOLIA  496UNITED ARAB EMIRATES  282
IRAQ  1,184NEPAL  3,801YEMEN  1,222
ISRAEL  190OMAN  32 
   
EUROPE  
ALBANIA  3,962GREECE  71NORTHERN IRELAND  4
ANDORRA  0HUNGARY  93NORWAY  7
ARMENIA  2,293ICELAND  11POLAND  383
AUSTRIA  35IRELAND  29PORTUGAL  24
AZERBAIJAN  1,439ITALY  289  Macau  6
BELARUS  2,143KAZAKHSTAN  2,406ROMANIA  365
BELGIUM  32KOSOVO  311RUSSIA  6,001
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA  36KYRGYZSTAN  2,130SERBIA  239
BULGARIA  348LATVIA  63SLOVAKIA  23
CROATIA  32LIECHTENSTEIN  1SLOVENIA  6
CYPRUS  2LITHUANIA  180SPAIN  114
CZECH REPUBLIC  44LUXEMBOURG  0SWEDEN  41
DENMARK  24MALTA  5SWITZERLAND  48
ESTONIA  18MOLDOOVA  1,565TAJIKISTAN  2,332
FINLAND  26MONACO  1TURKEY  2,874
FRANCE  272MONTENEGRO  33TURKMENISTAN  870
  Saint Martin  6NETHERLANDS  43UKRAINE  5,604
GEORGIA  1,899  Curacao 1UZBEKISTAN  5,319
GERMANY  563NORTH MACEDONIA  336VATICAN CITY  0
   
NORTH AMERICA  
BAHAMAS, THE  29  
   
OCEANIA  
AUSTRALIA  1,130NAURU  11SAMOA  8
  Cocos Keeling Islands  19NEW ZEALAND  360SOLOMON ISLANDS  4
FIJI  1,087  Cook Islands  32TONGA  95
KIRIBATI  12  Tokelau  5TUVALU  2
MARSHALL ISLANDS  0PAPUA NEW GUINEA  29VANUATU  7
MICRONESIA, FEDERATED
STATES OF  9
PALAU  5 
   
SOUTH AMERICA  
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA  5DOMINICA  3PERU  1,559
ARGENTINA  191ECUADOR  246SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS  1
BARBADOS  5GRENADA  1SAINT LUCIA  2
BELIZE  8GUYANA  5SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES  3
BOLIVIA  38HONDURAS  74SURINAME  4
CHILE  36NICARAGUA  69TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO  44
COSTA RICA  68PANAMA  10URUGUAY  19
CUBA  1,235PARAGUAY  3VENEZUELA  1,872