As I have previously posted the Department of State publishes a yearbook report with a number of different reports on immigration. A few weeks ago I published the initial numbers which excluded the adjustment of status numbers. We now have the Full 2014 report available as DoS have published this report which includes CP and AoS cases organized by country of chargeability and region. The data also shows previous years so we can see a great deal of useful information.
So let’s crunch the numbers a bit!!
Interestingly Egypt and Nepal look like they were maxed out at the country limit of 7%. AAs I have predicted those two will probably be the only countries to max out again this year (I have already built that in to my predictions).
Iran showed the dramatic impact from DV2013 to DV2014 of the AP delays. Asia as a whole was held to 8500 visas (in line with quota), but Iran getting 1500 less visas in DV2014 compared to the previous year was critical in allowing AS to reach as high as it it. AS I have already stated, the highest case number in AS region going above 10k relies on the AP impact again. So – if whatever caused it in DV2014 (I assume non cooperation of Iranian authorities) is resolved, the impact to AS high case numbers (other than Iran or Nepal) would be very noticeable.
AT the end of DV2014 African embassies were issuing visas right up to the last day. Based on the quotas I believe AF was actually “underfilled” – meaning they could have issued a few hundred more. The other regions all met or exceeded their quotas based on the overall 52342 visas issued globally. That is why almost no visas were issued in EU, OC, and SA after August last year and only a few in AS region.
The quotas have changed slightly this year so EU should get more than the 18904 it received last year. Based on DV4Rogers calculations the split will be something like this (including AoS and rounded up for ease)
AF – 22000
EU – 20000
AS – 8500
SA – 1500
OC – 850
EU is the least overselected region this year. Their selectee count went down by the highest percentage decrease and they have had the largest increase in quota (because of the Nigeria exclusion). Thus EU high case numbers have the best hope among the regions. Indeed while all regions would get a benefit from a increased non response rate, EU could actually get quite close to going current if responses were low or refusals/AP are high. Within a month or two we will know a little more about that. It certainly does seem like the DS260 fiasco is going to have an impact on final numbers.
Hope that is interesting – and it helps pass the time waiting for the 2NLs to be sent!!
Full 2014 report available