I’ve gathered the Historical Visa Bulletin Numbers from various sources for a few years to give an idea of progression in previous years and I will maintain these numbers as future Visa Bulletins are released.
Knowing visa bulletin progression is sometimes a useful reference, and is certainly interesting. To use the data, click the tab for the region you are interested in and check the cutoff number for the month.
There may be some similarities with number progress from year to year, but there may not. So – don’t rely on these numbers as a predictive guide for this year. One thing that confuses people is that the selected numbers vary each year depending on entries and other factors. For instance, certain countries in the past have had huge entry numbers and once those countries are excluded from the lottery the range of numbers selected changes from one year to the next. That was the case in 2014 to 2015 in AF region when Nigeria was excluded, or in Asia in 2012 to 2013 when Bangladesh was excluded.
To understand how to read the Visa Bulletin works and can be read – please check out this article.
What does CURRENT mean? That is published when KCC believes that there are enough visas for all remaining demand. All case numbers can then be interviewed.
If you prefer a direct link to the data you can see that here.
June 11, 2015 at 13:26
Oh My, for Asia, the number for August is only 7000+. Do you think it will jump to 10000 in last month??
June 11, 2015 at 19:21
I hope and expect so
June 12, 2015 at 06:08
how do you think the reason for this lag in Africa, and whether this fact is reflected in the number of visas issued by Europe?
Thank you
June 12, 2015 at 06:11
I think it is due to no shows and yes there is a connect between the progress for the regions.
June 12, 2015 at 07:59
HI SIR BRITSIMON , I’M FROM CAMEROON , CN 2016AF55XXX .
DO YOU THINK THE RESULT OF THIS YEAR WILL IMPACT THE NEXT YEAR ( DV 2016 ) ?. BECAUSE THIS YEAR THE PROGESSION IN AFRICA IS VERY SLOW ( ONLY 44250 CURRENT IN AUGUST ). I’M SCARED ABOUT THAT.
THKS FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE.
June 12, 2015 at 16:41
There is no connection between the years – BUT if the case number density is similar then the end number could be similar. Your number is one of the highest 2016 numbers I have heard – so there is obviously some risk – but I don’t have the full 2016 data to give you a more certain answer. We will know more in the coming months. By the way – the 2015 version of your number has a good chance to go current.
June 12, 2015 at 15:10
BRITSIMONS hi I have a history of TB Who left me sequels in the lungs.
Indeed, I had the disease in 2004 and after 6 months of treatment I regained health with sessions of reeducation. I am very afraid that the US consulate finds it and decides to refuse me a visa because my left lung was not normal as before the illness.
I recently did a radio and I went to see a specialist doctor lungs. he told me that it was not evolutionary, and that was not an infection. he explained that it was of the plates of the sequels after HEALING. Also he said that I could have surgery at the Heart Institute of my country.
I would like your opinion. thank you.
June 12, 2015 at 15:24
TB, having been treated previously is not a reason for disqualification. I would suggest taking previous medical history information to the medical examination since the doctor may want to investigate what he/she sees on xrays. .
June 12, 2015 at 15:59
What kinds of information such …..
I have my certificate HEALING radio and I did it two months ago.
June 15, 2015 at 18:27
Hi,Britsimon
What do you think of 2016AF00047xxx,am i safe? Please.
And if i am when is my interview likely to be?
thank you!
June 15, 2015 at 18:28
It is too soon to be 100% sure that you are safe – we will need to wait a few months. Your interview is likely to be in August or September 2016
June 19, 2015 at 23:27
Hi,Britsimon
my CN is 2015AS11205 what do you think with this slow number moving is there any hope ?
thank you
June 19, 2015 at 23:49
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 20, 2015 at 01:35
thank you alot
June 20, 2015 at 01:58
Hi Simon,
Hope you are well. I have a little more complicated case. My number is 2016AS000104XX and appreciate to hear your opinion on what’s the best strategy. Here’s my situation:
1. Still bounded by 2-year J1 residence requirement (Still have 6 months left). Note: J-1 was sponsored by the U.S. Government.
2. Just left USA on June 19, 2016 and currently residing in my home country to fulfill the outstanding 6 months. Expected to fulfill the requirement by December 2016.
3. Prior to leaving USA few days ago, I was working under a OPT and have applied for OPT STEM extension.
4. Current F1 Visa is expiring in July 15, 2015.
My plan is to:
1. Renew for F-1 as soon as next week.
2. After obtaining F-1, apply for green card before June 30th, 2015.
3. Stay in home country for 6 months.
4. After staying in home country > 6 months, I plan to return to USA for to work until my OPT STEM extension ends in December 2016.
5. Once case number becomes current (From your previous post, it seems to be sometime in August?), I will attend the interview in USA.
My question is:
1. When do you think my number will go current?
2. Do you think I should risk applying for F-1 prior to greencard application, and then re-enter USA on F-1 visa while greencard is still pending?
3. If you were to be me, what would you do? Just stay in Malaysia and wait for my number to be current (Just to be safe)?
Thanks.
June 20, 2015 at 02:10
Hi Simon,
Two more follow up questions:
1. Given my number 2016AS000104XX, when would be the latest optimal date you think I should submit the green card application?
2. Since my case number is so big, would you actually suggest me to submit the green-card application once I re-enter the USA under F-1 visa, after fulfilling the 6 months residency requirement by December 2015 instead?
I’ve seen many people thanking you for your great help and quick response. I ditto that. You should get on NYT and get some award for doing this!
Thanks.
June 20, 2015 at 06:07
I am having to not answer your questions about what “I would do”. It is your case – I can’t decide for you.
You latest DS260 submission date is spring next year.
June 20, 2015 at 06:41
Hi Simon, Can you help me to delete this comment as I just realized I exposed the whole Case Number on the public forum. Please, and thank you.
June 20, 2015 at 06:05
I think you are giving wrong dates for when your J1 residency will be over.
I can’t really answer 2 and 3. For 1, you will probably go current (if at all) in September of 2016. There is a chance you don’t go current.
June 20, 2015 at 08:04
Hi Simon,
I try to understand why you mentioned that “There’s a chance that you don’t go current.” From the table you posted on Zoho Sheet, it seems that my CN 2016AS000104XX had the opportunity to be current by September given the historical data. Why for 2016, do you think that this is most likely will not happen?
Or did I read the table wrongly? To clarify a statement you posted “A region can go current if there are enough visas for remaining demand.” So when looking at the table, when the cell has “current” in it, does it mean that all applications will be interviewed during that month?
June 20, 2015 at 15:14
The numbers are not comparable to all previous years. DV2015 numbers will be close – but once DV2015 is over you will see the point I am making. By the way – when I say a chance – that is NOT the same as me saying “most likely”
June 22, 2015 at 11:00
Thanks Simon! This is super helpful. Finger crossed.
June 23, 2015 at 17:53
Hi, Symon
I have a question regarding the dv-16 case numbers. Looks like in dv-16 program fewer people got selected (around 91K compared to 100+K in previous years). How can this affect the case numbers? It seems that there are no numbers higher than 25K in EU. Mine is almost as high as 14K (chargeability Ukraine). Are my chances of getting an interview OK given the high number of selectees from Ukraine (around 4.5K)?
Looking forward to your reply,
Max.
June 23, 2015 at 22:48
You are certain to get an interview. “U2” countries have high agent involvement so they have low response rates. So – don’t worry about it.
Yes EU as a whole is in a much better position because of the reduction in selectees.
June 24, 2015 at 01:04
Thank you, Simon, for a reasuring news.
And the “U2” countries definitely stands for Ukraine and Uzbekistan… Those two always get much more selectees than anyone else in the EU section. Uzbekistan almost always gets the special schedule in the visa bulletin and I’ve heard that on a few occasions the visas were not available for its citizens starting from June. Let’s hope the things will go smoother this time.
Thanks again for the info.
July 5, 2015 at 08:08
Hello Sir,
This year visa bulletin for 2015 will it be almost similar to 2016, Am Af35xxx, Am I right to assume that my interview next year might be in July… Or maybe earlier.
July 5, 2015 at 14:48
Roughly about then, yes.
July 9, 2015 at 00:22
Hello sir
I winners DV2016 my CN
2016AS000003** i thing this is a small number ,, what’s about the chance of interview .
Thanks.
July 9, 2015 at 00:59
Obviously there is a 100% chance.
July 9, 2015 at 01:19
Thank you for replying
You have reduce the tensile and my concern.
By your experience when the interview or the email of it will send to notify me
Thank you again
July 10, 2015 at 16:03
Hi,
So my case # 2015AS8128, I believe it’s over, I need to forget abt it, right?
Thx
July 10, 2015 at 18:20
I think so…
๐
July 10, 2015 at 16:24
Hello Sir,
I have a few questions.
1.Has the outcome of this v.b for Africa 50000 been largely affected by the fact that Nigeria was excluded.
2. Sorry to say this but does it mean anyone in A.f with case number above 50xxx can term his number as in risky range.
Thanks and sorry to all who got cut off.
July 12, 2015 at 19:24
Hi please i need help and answer,
I’m a winner of DV 2015 and my CN is 2015AF60XXX
i’m so desperate according to the last VB of August, there is no more availlable visa. for AF it stopped exactly at 50,000.
I would like to know since whether I will have an interview or not depends on the fact that the CN below me encounter a problem and can’t be processed, if the VB of September could possibly add more CN to the rank off for Africa and become for instance : AF 65000 ?????????????????????
July 13, 2015 at 18:38
No, I am sad to say it is over. You will not get an interview.
July 14, 2015 at 06:54
Thank you.
July 25, 2015 at 23:01
hello
any chance for AF47xxx
July 26, 2015 at 06:40
Yes.
July 29, 2015 at 11:43
I am a winner of DV2016, my case number is 2016AF00005XXX, when do you except to have my interview?
July 29, 2015 at 14:30
October or November.
July 30, 2015 at 16:38
dear BritSimon,
I’m selected in dvlottery2016 my case number is AF47xxx, i am from algeria
what is my chance,approximately in wich month I will be interviewed
thank you very much
July 30, 2015 at 17:22
It is too early to be certain. I think your number has a chance, but won’t be current until the last month – September 2016.
August 2, 2015 at 07:59
dear BritSimon
my cn is af2016 8xxx i un lock ds 260
on June 30 and i corret the form then re submit on that day .the 1st date of submission is on May 22.it thier any delay due to un lock?
And approximately in wich month I will be interviewed?
thank you very much!!!
August 2, 2015 at 16:06
You might be on October or November. Does it matter which month???
August 2, 2015 at 16:35
dear BritSimon
Actually My spouse date of birth is on june 11 1992 and on her passport also june 11,1992 .
during reveiw of my spouse ds 260 form befor submission of ds260 the date of birth written as june 4,1992 but i correced as june 11,1992
I don’t the probelem is either early applicain error or type error on ds 260 filling but my quesion is it their any probelem or dis qualificaion? or can we corect on interveiw?
August 2, 2015 at 17:33
There is no way to be sure of the reaction of the CO. Only the CO can decide whether to approve you or not despite this error.
August 6, 2015 at 14:17
Hi Brit,
My CN is 2016AF00022xxx form Ethiopia. when I can expect interview?
Thank you.
August 6, 2015 at 15:29
Around April/May…
August 8, 2015 at 03:43
Hi Brit,
My CN 2016000003**
From Jordan when i can expect my interview.
Thanks
August 8, 2015 at 05:17
https://britsimonsays.com/when-will-i-have-an-interview
August 11, 2015 at 07:23
Hi Brit,
Thankyou for your website. I, like most people, has been an enormous help.
I hope that you understand that you a truly changing peoples lives.
I know that you have been inundated with people asking ‘when’. I read your post, however, it didnt add it for me in conjunction with cross checking previous cut offs. So I thought that I would ask.
I did read every post to see if there was anyone else from Australia and/or Oceania, to save you some time.
I recently got shortlisted ie 2016. Being from Australia, I am in Oceania draw. My number is 930.
Would you have a rough idea if I am safe from the cut off and also when you would anticipate an interview.
Thank you.
August 11, 2015 at 13:49
A lot of people ask that, I even have a post to answer the question. https://britsimonsays.com/when-will-i-have-an-interview/
However, your number needs additional comment. I haven’t seen the 2016 CEAC data yet which would confirm the highest case number for each region, but the dramatic reduction in selectees for OC should mean the case number is under 1000. So – you are one of the highest numbers and I expect you to be interviewed in August or September. They often try to complete a region by August. Now – are you safe – well yes – I actually think OC will go current.
August 11, 2015 at 22:46
Hi Brit,
Thank you for your email and reply. As I said before, I know people have asked you about their number, however, I simply couldnt see anything from Oceania in previous posts…
Just two quick comments(hope that is ok).
Can you please explain your comment on a ‘dramatic reduction in selectees for OC’. Just looking on the Visa Bulletin website, shows that Oceania was upto 1490(september)-I am a little confused as I cant help but think that I am reading this incorrectly. Sorry to be a pain.
Also could you explain as well(please) on a rough guide of August/September(I know it is just a guess). I am interested to know as historically, again from the Visa Bulletin OC 930 was around the month of April.
Thank you again. Little stressed hence the quick reply.
August 12, 2015 at 00:52
OK – a few things to explain.
First let’s look at the dramatic reduction comment.
In Dv2015 OC had 3500 selectees. That is winners and family members and from the CEAC data we know the max case number was 2306 and there were 2111 individual case numbers. The difference between 2306 and 2111 (195 cases) is “holes”. Those are cases that got disqualified before they were even notified – so that is a hole rate of 8.5%
Now the 3500 selectees were on the 2111 cases – so there is a derivative rate for the region of 1.66 people per case.
DV2016 has 1500 selectees. At the same derivative rate as DV2015 that would mean 903 cases, but if we apply the same fraud hole rate that 903 represents 91.5% of the original – so we should theoretically see a max case number of 986. With me so far?
So – as you said, in DV2015 they interviewed up to case number 1490 – so why can’t they process all of OC by April if the highest case number is 986. Well – the answer is they could – but they will actually slow down the VB pace compared to last year in order to space out the visas over the year. It is partly to organize the work better, but partly to do with some “guidance rules” that say the processing should be spread out at no more than 10% of the annual visas in any one month.
I believe we will see OC get up around 850/900 by July and go current in August and September.
Does that make sense?
August 13, 2015 at 23:34
Hi Brit,
Thank you that does make a lot of sense.
Am I correct in saying that due to the small overall ‘shortlist’ of candidates and inturn the smaller than normal shortlist for Oceania specific that there is a decent chance(provide all paper work is in order) that nearly everyone from Oceania will get an interview?
In regards to timing, I was not aware of the 10% quasi rule. I guess that a lot will be revealed when October comes and goes and we get to see where everyone is.
Being a relatively low number c930, it is a little nerve racking(im sure you can appreciate), especially with the majority of people in Oceania coming from Australia and NZ there would be a high conversion rate.
Thank again.
August 14, 2015 at 00:40
Each region has its own quota (not published per se, by calculatable). So – OC only has to compete with itself.
OC gets a relatively low response rate. Looking at DV2015 data up to case number 1490 there are 1353 individual cases. The reason there are not 1490 cases is the cases that were disqualified before notification. Of those 1353, 736 are “at NVC”. Some of those cases will be Adjustment of Status (AoS) cases as they don’t get updated to CEAC. However, that still means around 50% of the selectees for OC don’t ever respond. So – of the 1500 selectees – around 750 will submit their DS260 (either for CP or AoS). Some of those will not turn up to interviews, or be refused (around 10%). So – even allowing for a few marriages and babies, it is very likely that OC will not reach the quota (which is around 800).
Really. You don’t have to worry.
August 20, 2015 at 19:42
MY CASE NUMBER IS 2016AF000084 DO I HAVE A CHANCE
August 21, 2015 at 00:55
Well I doubt the 83 people in front of you will manage to fill the 22000 spots for Africa – so yes.
August 28, 2015 at 04:03
Hi mr brit.kindly inquiring to know if moselims are also given greencard visas
August 28, 2015 at 04:38
Of course they are…
August 28, 2015 at 05:16
Secondly sir,i emailed kcc to comfirm abt the time of my interview and they replied that my forms are currently prroccessing and that i should allow several weeks for proccessing.my cn is 2016AF00003091 .do u think i will get my interview in october
August 28, 2015 at 06:14
No, the October interviews are already scheduled and your forms are till processing! So – you will have an interview in a later month.
August 28, 2015 at 11:12
A later month like when because i thought that since my number is current for october .am gonna be interviewed
August 28, 2015 at 13:06
Read this
https://britsimonsays.com/2nls-for-dv2016-have-started
August 30, 2015 at 01:01
Hi my number is 630 when am I expecting interview.
August 30, 2015 at 03:38
That depends on which region – and when did you submit your DS260
August 30, 2015 at 06:27
Hi brit,
My case number is AF2016### and im yet to start the processing when should i expect mynterview. or am i late? What are my chances. Thank you so much already
August 30, 2015 at 15:10
You are not too late – you have not told me your case number but there is time to submit your DS260 still and you would interview next year.
August 30, 2015 at 23:14
I am winner of 2016 lottery from fiji my number is 630. When can I expect for interview
August 31, 2015 at 02:56
It depends when you submitted your DS260.
September 3, 2015 at 05:37
I registered with an agency and when i won they insist on doing the processing for me and they are charging me 4000 dollars for that.th3y used their email for everything so i dont ve access to. anything they gave me a copy but editted the case number out.can i seek assistance from the embassy ? Raising that amout is difficult. Please help me i dont want to loose this chance. Thank you very much sir for your help.
September 3, 2015 at 06:02
You were very foolish to go through an agent in such a simple process. If you can get your case number you might be able to do something but without that, there is nothing. If the company are blackmailing you without an agreement, you could go to the local police.
September 4, 2015 at 10:07
Hi brit,kindly want to know when the next visa bulletin
September 4, 2015 at 16:10
About a week from now
September 6, 2015 at 16:05
Mr brit,is their any area on the ds260 where high school details should be put,i only saw for institutes but i see people posting abt putting it.
September 6, 2015 at 16:25
Yes, in the education – you are supposed to add additional schools creating a history with most recent first. You really need to read the instructions more carefully – take some time on your DS260.
September 8, 2015 at 08:47
But i didn’t put the high school details and i submited the ds260 in june and am current.so is it wise for me to unlock
September 8, 2015 at 11:12
You are wasting time. THat is unwise.
September 8, 2015 at 14:16
So am i safe sir?
September 9, 2015 at 01:12
What do you advise sir,
September 9, 2015 at 01:26
I already told you. Unlock and fix it.
September 9, 2015 at 04:35
But Brit,on primary occupation i put student,they asked for the school name and i put the name of the institute to me i think that is enough provided i prove with it at the interview
September 9, 2015 at 04:55
OK – it’s up to you – you don’t need to get my approval!
September 9, 2015 at 05:28
Ya brit your wright,i hve alread sent the msg to kcc to unlock thanx
September 11, 2015 at 07:00
Dear BritSimon,
Iโm selected in dvlottery2016 my case number is AF27xxx, i am from Kenya
what is my chance,approximately in wich month I will be interviewed
thank you very much
September 11, 2015 at 18:25
https://britsimonsays.com/when-will-i-have-an-interview/
September 11, 2015 at 11:08
HELLO BRIT,HOPE YOU HELP ME WITH THIS CHALLANGE,ON MY INTIAL DV FORM ON THE AREA WHERE THEY ASK(HAVE YOU LIVED ANY WHERE OTHER THAN THIS ADRESS) I REMEMBER THE PLACES BUT I DON’T REMEMBER THE ACCURATE YEARS THAT I PUT
THAT I MAY PUT THE SAME INFORMATION ON DS260.WHAT SHOULD I DO PLZ.))
September 11, 2015 at 15:19
Use your best guess.
September 19, 2015 at 15:13
hello…sir my self AF390002016DS 260 SUBMITTED may 20 can u please tell in which month i can expect my interview ???
September 19, 2015 at 16:11
https://britsimonsays.com/when-will-i-have-an-interview/
September 21, 2015 at 22:03
thanks brit,
when i completed my ds260 i didn’t mention my secondary school i just mentioned my university , the name of university , and its address , and i choose the highest education level (university degree ) as well as i mentioned that i have work experience and wrote the form for the place i work for the last tree years , and the address of work so is there is any problem
and my case is current , it sure i will receive 2NL this week i don’t have any time to unlock so what is there is any problem if take my interview for my secondary certificate , my university degree , and one year diploma as well as the three years of experience
please advise me
i know my errors right now after i read my forms i have already submitted
thanks
September 26, 2015 at 14:39
HI BRIT WHAT DOES IT MEAN BY THE CASE PENDING FURTHER EMBASSY REVIEW MEAN,SECONDLY DO I NEED TO TAKE VARRIFIED ACCADEMIC DOCCUMENTS AT THE INTERVIEW OR ITS THE EMBASSY TO VARRIFY.
September 26, 2015 at 17:53
It means your DS260 is processed and you will be scheduled once your number is current. As for verifying educational documents – that varies by embassy.
September 27, 2015 at 13:19
MR BRIT,when are the 2nl for november interviews,my cn is af3092 ..
September 27, 2015 at 14:20
Monday or Tuesday probably.
September 28, 2015 at 06:22
hallo am in Africa…Kenya…my case no.for dv2016 is AF54XXXX…are there chances of me called for an interview? they reached case no.50000 for 2015…..am worried….do we have many holes for this year s ‘lottery?
September 28, 2015 at 14:00
That number obviously has some risk as you mention, but we don’t have enough data yet to be certain – for now you just have to wait…
September 28, 2015 at 06:57
Mr brit does the us embassy nairobi need verified accademic doccuments.
September 28, 2015 at 14:01
I don’t monitor every embassy for their specific requirements. Check this thread :-
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2016-kenyan-selectees-forum.326087/page-16
September 28, 2015 at 15:05
Also read this post/thread
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-kenya-selectees-forum.320783/page-206#post-2417541
October 2, 2015 at 09:35
sup mr.simon…tnx fo ya blog i have read all of the comments but i was wondering about my case mine is, 2016AF10*** and i submitted the DS260 form on 26th May but i ain’t gate the 2NL ….so when do u think?? Tnx you very much !!!
October 2, 2015 at 15:01
Are you from Ethiopia or Egypt?
October 2, 2015 at 17:47
Dear Sir, I am the 2016 DV winner and my no is a AS 83xx , Tell me What is probability i will get a visa, and i have submitted my DS 260 on may 2015 , What will be the next step
October 2, 2015 at 18:21
I cannot predict that probability – it is too early. You now just wait to see if your number will go current – and that will not be until August/September 2016 if at all.
October 5, 2015 at 06:23
Hi Simon,
Is it okey to apply again this year if you applied last year but have not yet received the second letter.?
Is it a must for all the selected members of the first round to receive a second letter,,….that is are you informed if you are not selected the second time ?
October 5, 2015 at 16:37
You can apply again, yes.
October 13, 2015 at 17:57
my CN is 2016AS38** from nepal….is it safe for this FY?if it is, when do u think, i will be scheduled for interview?
October 13, 2015 at 23:05
Yes safe. Early 2016 interview
October 14, 2015 at 19:41
Hello BritSimon,
I see the Visa Bulletin and I could see that in SA only increase in the numbers of visas 25, my question is this: because there was such a low increase compared to the previous month? That considerably affects or harms those which have higher confirmation numbers?
October 14, 2015 at 19:46
We are 3 months into a 12 month process. It is too soon to jump to conclusions…
October 17, 2015 at 23:03
Hi,
Do you happen to know why back in 2005 and 2000 the EU region stopped at lower CNs compared to other years, when either they hit near 40.000 or the region goes current?
Thanks a lot. Your help is much appreciated.
October 18, 2015 at 00:05
Each year is different. It is pointless to compare.
October 18, 2015 at 00:23
Yes, I agree, but it should have something to do with the number of selectees in the region + their response rate, right? The more selectees in a region + the more people showing up for an interview and being granted a visa, the less likely it’d be to reach a high CN? I know I am overthinking this, but I’m just trying to make some sense of the process. ๐
October 18, 2015 at 01:29
Number ranges change by the makeup of the countries too due to disqualification rates and so on. Not comparing like for like at all, especially from 10 plus years ago.
EU will go current anyway, so relax.