OK – so the VB was released today and whilst some people are happy, many are finding the progress is not what they hoped. There is no doubt that this year was generally “over selected”. They selected nearly 116k people for 50k visas. They need to overselect to some extent (because many people don’t follow through with the win) but ideally they should select about 100k people. What that means is that some people will not be able to get interviews. We have known that for a long time – so even though we cannot be certain of the final cutoffs – at least people with high numbers can get themselves mentally prepared that they may not get the GC this year. If you want to read more about selectee numbers – read this article.
So – let’s review each region.
AF region.
The progress up to this point has been about what it should be. There are four months remaining, and the important thing to know is that density will drop significantly for the next VB. So – although the pace may seem slow to some of you, it is about to get a bit faster for the remaining four months. This won’t be a surprise to anyone that has been paying attention to what I have said in the past and understood the density chart on this page.
Disregarding the two limited countries, the VB increased from 21100 to 24800 – a difference of 3700 case numbers. Because of holes that meant 2771 cases within that number spread (Remember this IGNORES the affect of limited countries – Egypt and Ethiopia). Now – because density drops, if KCC wanted to make say 2700 cases current next month, that would require the VB to increase to AF30000 – an increase of 5200 case numbers. And if the month after that they wanted to add another 2700 cases (ignoring holes and disregarding limited countries) that would require an increase to 35450. So – I am not predicting those as solid numbers – but it is more than reasonable to expect an increase in pace.
Furthermore, visas issued are slightly behind where I would expect at this point, so there are enough as to support this increased pace. For the final numbers I still say WAIT and SEE, but I see no reason why we can’t get to the numbers I previously discussed – which was mid 40’s.
Egypt and Ethiopia are still held back in the VB. That is normal, and it is due to the number of cases for those two countries. However, I am not able to guess the progress for those two countries. However there are FOUR months left – so please be patient.
AS region.
Frankly it is NOT possible to predict AS progress. A HUGE number of AS selectees are affected by the travel ban. The challenge to the ban is being heard in late April, so it is possible (though not that likely) that the ban could be removed. If it is, I have no idea whether previously banned selectees would be given a chance, and if it isn’t removed I have no idea whether KCC will be able to re-allocate visas to non banned selectees. Really – I simply cannot guess what will happen. Please don’t ask me to guess – you are just going to get the “wait and see” answer.
OC region
OC is progressing exactly as expected – perhaps even a little faster than expected. . I still think numbers above 1400 have some risk – so I expect VB increases of about 100/150 a month and then the number will probably stop increasing in August (ish). I am CERTAIN the region cannot go current.
SA region
Similar to OC region – it’s progressing well, but as I have previously explained, there is risk for higher numbers. I am CERTAIN the region cannot go current.
EU region.
This one needed to be left to the end. Of the three large regions it is the simplest in one sense (no limited countries), BUT things are VERY different this year to a normal year. As I have explained before – we have normally seen just two countries (Uzbekistan and Ukraine) that have been limited during the selection process. This happens when a country has a large amount of entries in the lottery. This year – three more countries achieve the maximum number of selectees – Russia, Turkey and Albania. This was a Sudden increase from one year to the next. In the case of Albania, there must have been at least 500k people participating in the lottery (as entrants or derivatives). That might not sound like a lot – but when you consider the population of the country is less than 3 million people, it is a HUGE NUMBER. This is clearly agent driven, so – that is bound to have an effect – but we won’t know exactly what effect until the year is over. For now we can only guess.
Now thanks to those people who are helping with the scraper, we do have some data to work with – so let’s explore that data.
According to the CEAC data, EU has had 8274 visas issued as of March 12. In addition there are 915 people on AP, and 5810 cases marked as ready.
Some (most in fact) of the AP cases will be approved later. AP processing seems slower this year than previous years, and additional security checks and measures are likely the reason for that.
Of the ready cases, they fall into three groups.
- No shows. These are cases that were scheduled, but the selectee did not show up for their interview. Some of those will reschedule – but many (most) won’t. So – if a case shows ready and it is under the number that could have been interviewed last month, it is most likely a no show. Of the 5810 ready cases, about 1800 to 2000 could be that scenario. However, that number seems high – so I don’t totally trust the number.
- Late updates. These cases have been interviewed, but the embassy have not updated the outcome yet.
- Future scheduled cases. Since cases are marked as ready a head of time we always have a large number of ready cases that are scheduled in the remainder of this month or next month. In addition, each month there are late submissions. These are people that did not submit their DS260 early, so they get scheduled in a month later than their “current” month.
So – it is not accurate to assume that all 5800+ ready cases will become issued – but we could easily assume that 3000 to 4000 of those people will get visas – leaving 6000 to 7000 visas for the final five months of processing. The May interviews are now being set, and as we know, the increase from 15950 to 18050 was low. In fact – that increase only made 1200 new cases current – nearly half of which will be non response cases. So – there has been a noticeable slowdown in scheduled interviews this month and last month (for April and May interviews). I don’t know the reason for that slowdown.
However, looking at the data I think it is looking increasingly likely that EU will have a cutoff lower than I previously hoped. I mentioned before that the risk zone starts as low as 33XXX – and that is still true – but as time goes on, unless pace increases we could see a number even lower than that – because the embassies cannot handle all the activity in the final month or two.
The other thing that is troubling to me is the low number of resolved cases in Uzbekistan. Given that all their cases are concentrated under 10700 – all were entitled to interviews by February. Uzebekistan gets a high success rate (selectee to visas issued) – so by now I would expect to see 2500 to 3000 visas issued in Uzbekistan. However, the actual number is about half that expected range – so – I am not sure why that number is low.
There is a lot of data, and it is hard/impossible to predict the progress over the coming months. I have been saying we need to wait and see. That is sensible advice. This year is going to be hard to predict. So really – although everyone is sick of hearing these words, the wisest decision is to WAIT and SEE!
March 15, 2018 at 23:05
Ooooook it is very difficult to get to the end of this post without chocking. Thank you Brit for the explanation. I have now completely lost my hopes. Completely!!! It’s not even worth it to do any math or thinking ☹️☹️☹️
March 15, 2018 at 23:21
Tom since math didnt work for your cn, i think that phrase *this year is hard to predict* must give you some hope. If could reach 33k its not hard to imagine that could reach higher number. Lets see another month
March 16, 2018 at 01:14
I don’t think so Eridon, Brits calculations are almost precisely
March 16, 2018 at 09:27
I am with you friend, just be patient..
March 15, 2018 at 23:14
Hi.African case number AF47000 ,can this feel fine?do you think personally will be scheduled for interview?Thank you.
March 15, 2018 at 23:20
Read the article!
March 15, 2018 at 23:16
For Tpm ur case number is it high ?is it over 50000?
March 15, 2018 at 23:16
For Tom ur case number is it high ?is it over 50000?
March 15, 2018 at 23:32
I’m EU over 38xxx
March 15, 2018 at 23:39
Tom – in reality, you have known since January that your case number was probably too high. The VBs for April and May were pretty much the last straw. Between 18050 and your number there are about 8200 cases, of which AT LEAST half will have responded. So – that puts you behind about 9000 people who are hoping for one of the last visas. I just don’t see how that can work in your favor. Time to think about other options and occasionally check on VB progress, just in case a miracle happens.
March 16, 2018 at 01:05
I know Brit, I know , but I think you have experience enough to understand that it is too difficult to wrap up the mind and just let it go.
March 16, 2018 at 02:43
Yes – I totally understand that.
March 15, 2018 at 23:19
Let’s pray.
March 15, 2018 at 23:33
His case requires prayers , but even that I don’t know how it can happen
March 16, 2018 at 01:00
Lionel I ment to say” in this case”
March 15, 2018 at 23:31
u mentioned that they will select about 45000 this year ,why?can it be current any month later ?
March 15, 2018 at 23:33
Wait and see.
March 15, 2018 at 23:35
mr simon
Q1:the denisty of egypt and ethiopeia is decrease also and the VB for this countries may increase bit?
March 15, 2018 at 23:40
That is what I explained above. Please read it carefully.
March 16, 2018 at 01:30
you mention that denisty de creasr for AF
and i don’t know that include the limited countries also
so i ask you
March 16, 2018 at 00:01
Hi Brit, long time silent reader, listener and part time scraper here and fellow Brit (with a South African Wife). I have a fairly high case number (AF48xxx).
Would it be reasonable to assume, based on your calculations above for the next couple of VB’s, that if that pace of interviews was to continue for AF, and assuming the ”bucket doesn’t fill”, the final two VB’s would be in the region of 6500 increase each month based on the density drop to approx 40% after 35500ish? Hence a final number possibility of approx 49000? Or is this too simplistic/optimistic?
Very much appreciate your continued input and dedication to this site and the many like myself who can only really “wait and see!”
My best,
Tigergor
March 16, 2018 at 00:32
It is true that the pace can pick up significantly in later months. However, it is still hard to predict the final number with certainty. It’s frustrating, I know – but the only sensible answer is wait and see.
March 16, 2018 at 00:04
On another post, some guys commented about a hole theory, that there is going to be a lot of holes in the coming months etc etc… What do you think about that ?
March 16, 2018 at 00:30
That’s true – there are – we have made that abundantly clear on various posts and in the data the Xarthisius provides.
March 16, 2018 at 00:09
For Tom i have a feeling you will be scheduled in September when it will be current so no worries .according to EU history ,your case number was fine since 2006 until 2017 may be it is fine also this year 2018
March 16, 2018 at 00:42
Hi Brit! Thank you for this thorough analysis. You mentioned that this year Russia is one of those countries that achieve maximum number of selectees. Does it mean that we will see cutoffs for Russia at some point? Is my Russian EU24XXX still save?
March 16, 2018 at 02:44
Russia is not likely to reach the per country limit.
March 20, 2018 at 15:07
Hi Brit,
Do you have an opinion about France country limit? My case number is very high… in the 33XXX.
Thanks
March 20, 2018 at 16:49
France does not have any way to hit the 7% limit. Your number depends on progress of the region, not France.
March 16, 2018 at 08:07
Mr. Brit first of all thank you for your valuable work. I am sure you are sorry for this situation in EU on behalf of selectees who have high case number. But simply, March cut-off number was 13800. Appr. 9000 visa issued. There is 10200 real case numbers to 13800. If 9000 visa issued with 10200 real case number, for remaining 8000-9000 visa they need 10000 CN too. As I said, it is a simple ratio.
Respects.
March 16, 2018 at 14:31
There is nothing simple about it.
March 16, 2018 at 09:00
So EU Albania country nr 22*** here can i get a chance for interview until the end,or even if i get the chance my country can reach the limit of visias due to the over selection? An opinion if u can,thank you Brit!
March 16, 2018 at 14:27
You have no problem.
March 16, 2018 at 09:06
Hi Brit, although I would prefer you to confirm the safe number for EU I understand how difficult it is bearing in mind the high amount of visa issued. I also thing that it is possible the final cut off to be lower than 33XXX.
Concerning the high number of AP cases in Uzbekistan my personal feeling is that there is a possibility that part of them could not be cleared by the end of the year. That could be related to the terroristic attac by the Uzbek Saipov last year which could have resulted in more security checks for people coming from this country.
I also consider that the fewer real cases called for interview are due to the fact that more visas were issued than expected. It is quite possible that this number increases in the last few months.
However, if we remain at about 1200 real cases interviewed per month which will be the final cut off (considering the no shows)?
March 16, 2018 at 14:26
Yes I agree there is probably increased scrutiny of selectees from Uzbekistan.
As for predictions – please download the file and take a look.
March 16, 2018 at 09:20
Dear Brit,
I have generic question, What they actually process in the DS260? is it just like administrative process only or it has kind of background review? Can someone with early submitted DS260, being current, and would never get an interview?
Thanks.
March 16, 2018 at 09:25
Hello Simon,
Will the chance for high numbers rise if the next month is current?
March 16, 2018 at 14:24
Next month won’t be current.
March 16, 2018 at 09:28
Hi Brit, you have mentioned Albania as an agent envolvement in e-dv but i want to tell you that is not true. Why i said that? For dv 2019 i helped all my family and friends to participate the lottery and like me there are most of people. Even media mentioned e-dv as a fenomenon among us. All of us want to emigrate outside country, that is the reasn that we are less than 3 million. No agents envolvement but helping people to find a way. Some agents that exist are attorneys and translators thag know the process very well and they did not make mistakes. You can see the succes rate for Albania. Its a quite high. For dv 2019 there will be more albanian as selectees for this reason. People have seen the easy way to emigrate because of their friend win lottery. Its not strange that Albania next year will find uzbekistani fenomenon because more and more people are participating the lottery through years
March 16, 2018 at 09:57
eridon, according to first months, only 800 selectee got visa in Albania. Avarage 200 per month. 2400 at the end of the year. Less then 3500. Also in my country Turkey it is like Albania. Only 440 selectees got visa for 4 months. They are participating but many of them don’t carry on the process.
March 16, 2018 at 13:52
They have filled e-dv even if they didn’t meet the requrments. They though they can find a way to high school diploma if they will select. After they get selected for further processing they try to “buy” a diploma. Some of them didnt find a way to fill requirments for interview and didnt go to interview. But i’ve seen that cases who are gonne for interview have a high succes rate. Agents are not envolved but people are trying avery way that seems possible
March 16, 2018 at 14:02
I also have family in Albania and I agree with Eridon. The DV lottery is not mostly agent driven but mostly word-of-mouth and press driven. Many people in Albania know about the DV lottery. I also have family in Greece and they are not as familiar with the DV lottery (except for the Albanians that live in Greece).
March 16, 2018 at 14:39
When someone plays a certain sport, they think about that sport and hang around with people that play that sport and discuss that sport with family and friends. If you ask that person how many people play that sport – they will answer “everyone I know”….
March 16, 2018 at 16:12
Brit, i don’t know how to explain to you the agent and translator story, because Albania has different lifestyle . It’s a small country and everybody knows everybody and everyone is in everyone’s business. Lets say I’m doing something, the whole neighborhood will know. So is with the agents too!
March 16, 2018 at 16:20
Well yeah – I see your point – it sounds like a place I would want to leave. 😉
March 16, 2018 at 14:24
500k people. Doubled from 1 year to the next. Something happened. It’s obvious.
March 16, 2018 at 14:28
What happened is :The will leaving the country
March 16, 2018 at 14:33
LOL
March 16, 2018 at 14:40
Yes its funny look at this picture. It happens before and could happen now https://goo.gl/images/hiEZ4i
March 16, 2018 at 15:55
LOL.
OK – you mentioned there were no agents, but there were some lawyers and translators “helping” people. How did you know about those lawyers and translators. Did they advertise their help? Did they have signs in their windows? How were you aware of them and how many of those do you think there were?
March 16, 2018 at 14:37
It will be more in comming years. In 2015 and 2016 many thounsand of people followed syrian exodus around europe. If someone made to leave from here will follow by many others. We are very related to our friends and family and if i leave they will try to follow my steps next year. Many of my relatives asked me to help them to fill e-dv after i was selected. Some of them i have told that they dont meet requirments but they dont care. Many of them tried to follow syrians in europe but no country gave them asylum. So they decided to try edv or illegal ways to move. I feel sorry for that but obvioulsy is not agent driven.
March 16, 2018 at 16:20
@Brit. Yes you got it. We can say they are agents but they only advertise and fill edv. They does not filled edv without peoples notice and the infomation they gave is true. That has lead to this increasment but i dont think that anything get affecte. Advertising in october is crazy and agent are but cant be compared to uzbekistan and ukraine fraud in previews years. In october i will send you some photosh of this shops where you could buy opportunity to america ?
March 16, 2018 at 16:44
So there *are* people that advertise to encourage people to sign up for the lottery, and in October that is very active. Well that **is** what agents do! That in itself is confirmation of what I have been saying!
I assume this advertising has been increasing in recent years – and that would have created some of the increased interest in the lottery. But would it have caused a DOUBLING from one year to the next – no – of course not.
Now – you have seen how a smart programmer (like Xarthisius) can take an idea and create a program to do amazing tricks of automation. If someone, for instance, gained access to computerized records, it would be relatively simple to create a program to complete the eDV process. Of course – you wouldn’t know that – the people running that sort of activity wouldn’t publicize their efforts, but just because you are not aware of that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.
There is probably an old Albanian saying that if the cheese keeps disappearing, you probably have rats. 🙂
March 16, 2018 at 17:08
I would love to agree with you on the agent theory brit- actually, I also find the amount of albanian entrees strange- something must have clearly happened, and es, maybe it was agent driven… however it seems like this theory, while published in january, gave hope for high cns, the effect of the agents at this point, let it be higher refusals or no shows, maybe even no responses, didnt result in an increase of speed, and also not in an decrease in response rate so far. Maybe it does, and at the end of the year we can say, hey, their was some “unusal activity” and we can see that because of this and that. But high numbers will hae still lost their chance, because picking up speed at this point to me seems rather unliky.
I hate to say it, we have seen jumps like 5k in previous years, but usually during a period with even lower density then the remaining numbers up to 33k this year. Its hard to belive that they will speed up, and if agetns or not- for us, it doesnt seem to make a diffrence at this pointany more. It might would have if the effects of agents would have been noticable throughout the year. but even if they become noticable now- there is little time to move faster.
March 16, 2018 at 17:23
Agents or not. Wait and see is still all we can do.
March 16, 2018 at 09:44
Many thanks Simon for your time, it gives a bit more explanation. Let’s see, it becomes to be very stressful for EU, though I still hope for our chances being EU292XX. But we’ll see. I am also a bit concerned that if it is much later than we thought, nothing like AP or late processing of the DS260 could jeopardise our chances, though the 260 was updated some weeks ago now. Stressful time ahead, but thanks again for your insight!
March 16, 2018 at 13:59
There is no DS260 delay. You should be fine.
March 16, 2018 at 09:57
Thanks for the information,Simon. I’ve read all of your articles, but: Considering this last VB what would you consider a high number (and risk) for SA region? From 1500 as you mentioned before? Maybe 1600?
March 16, 2018 at 13:57
I don’t have a hard final number.
March 16, 2018 at 15:34
Lol, i can see i have my SA region clone ?
March 16, 2018 at 15:44
Yes – someone from SA called Carlos – who knew??? 😉
March 16, 2018 at 10:29
Some calculations for EU
8000 visas are issued, let’s say there will be 2800 no-shows, then 3000 of the 5800 ready people will see interviews.
Let’s calculate the visa available for the remaining 4 months: 18300 – 8000 – 3000 = 7300 visas.
If there is 6-7k visas left, they are right making current 1200 visas per month
1200 * 0.54 (response rate) * 2.25 (derivative rate) = 1458 people per month
EU18050 + 1200 real case = 20620 (jun cutoff)
EU20620 + 1200 real case = 23383 (jul cutoff)
EU23383 + 1200 real case = 26199 (aug cutoff)
EU26199 + 1200 real case = 28930 (sep cutoff)
Let’s check, 1458 * 5 = 7290
So you see that’s very close to 7300.
Different derivative rates (because of countries) and the rejection rate (which is under 1% for Europe) is not likely to change much I think.
March 16, 2018 at 11:57
It seems like you are right on this but i would also like to hear brit`s opinion on this. But hopefully those case numbers will be a little bit higher then the one you calculated. I will pray.
March 16, 2018 at 13:52
I would be happy to hear Simon on this too because Buro are you really sure of your estimation/prediction, as sure as it can be? 3 days ago, you were predicting something else in the VB post comments so?
March 16, 2018 at 13:56
So you are assuming there will be zero no shows, almost no refusals and no AP.
You are also assuming a high derivative rate.
In other words, your number is too low.
March 16, 2018 at 17:59
If you are right Brit, I will be the happiest man on earth. 297XX here.
March 16, 2018 at 20:10
lets see who will be more happiest with my 297xx 😉
March 16, 2018 at 20:09
if 33xxx is a risk zone while 29xxx is too low where does the risk zone start
March 16, 2018 at 20:27
I have tried to explain above, but “wait and see” is a wise answer.
March 16, 2018 at 11:28
if the travel ban lifted the chances will be rare for higher #
March 16, 2018 at 13:50
In AS region – yes
March 16, 2018 at 12:00
Hi Brit i am a bit worried because my case number is 147x for South America. Am i at risk or there is a chance….
March 16, 2018 at 13:45
You have a chance
March 16, 2018 at 14:49
SA 2400
It was good while it lasted. On with life in my horrible country I guess.
March 16, 2018 at 16:45
🙁
March 16, 2018 at 14:58
Mr. Simon
you did not mention if your previous prediction for SA 15xx is still safe.
it it possible that the safe numbers may increase.
March 16, 2018 at 15:48
No change.
March 16, 2018 at 15:12
mr simon do we have a chance for interview with this CN (AF20xxx) and we are family (6 members) so may some of us don’t get visa because it is limited and there is alot of people in egypt has low CN and get a visa
March 16, 2018 at 15:49
You should be interviewed. If approved, the whole family gets visas.
March 16, 2018 at 16:03
you mean that we have a chance to be interviewed
March 16, 2018 at 16:24
Hi Brit,
If the a case below AF15xxx is showing NONE under consulate column in CEAC file dated March 12th, and showing “at NVC”, does it mean this case is an Egyptian one?
March 16, 2018 at 16:31
No!
March 16, 2018 at 17:13
Hi Brit my case number 309xx have I a chanse?
March 16, 2018 at 17:21
Read the article.
March 16, 2018 at 18:31
Please just say l’m safe or not It’s so nervous. Thanks
March 16, 2018 at 19:23
EU?
March 16, 2018 at 19:41
Yes
March 16, 2018 at 21:02
You have a chance 🙂
But you won’t know before 2 or 3 months…
March 16, 2018 at 21:11
Dear Brit, I appreciate your effort and support I am in a country included in the travel ban (Not Iran) the principal applicant which is my mother applied from Kuwait where we reside, she has been living here in Kuwait for the past 22 years. My father and myself are born in Kuwait and still reside here as well till this date, will that increase our chance to get accepted? Our number is AS 7xxx
Regards.
March 16, 2018 at 21:13
I would like to rephrase the “I am in” to I am from
March 16, 2018 at 21:45
Do you all have nationality of a country other than the banned country?
March 16, 2018 at 23:29
No we are all from the same country (which is travel banned) but we reside in Kuwait from a long time
March 17, 2018 at 04:41
OK – so you will not get visas unless the ban is lifted.
March 17, 2018 at 12:26
I would also like to add that the principal applicant has a relative their (Uncle) and her spouse has first class relationships ( 2 US citizenship brothers and 1 on a Green card soon to be a citizen)
Will any of this have a positive impact on the final decision ?.
Regards,
March 17, 2018 at 14:25
No.
March 17, 2018 at 21:51
Well see!, Once the next VB is out and We do that interview I will share the results on here.
March 16, 2018 at 23:02
AF Region
Follow me well 8 -> Constant of 3400, down to 7; so +300 -> 3700
We make 3700/3400 = 8.82%, go to the next step it decreases to 5 so -2 we do this VB June = 24800 × [2 × 8.82%] = 29100 same evolution for VB July = 34300
For the VB August it will be different of the previous step by decreasing by -3 so we calculate like this VB August = 34300 × [3 × 8.82%] = 43375 same thing for the last VB = 43375 × [3 × 8.82%] = Current ?
Summing up:
June 29100
Juill 34300
August 43375
Sept Current ?
(According to the graph of britsimonsays.com)
March 17, 2018 at 00:06
Dear brit, I m raj from srilanka. My CS NO AS85**. Will i get 2NL in July? Pls don’t tell wait and see.
Thanks very much Brit
March 17, 2018 at 04:40
I don’t know.
March 17, 2018 at 04:06
Thanks a lot
March 17, 2018 at 07:58
this year is worst year ever in progress vb no year in history vb slow like 2018
in fact trump order all embass to slow down as possible they can.
March 17, 2018 at 09:20
Got any proof of that allegation? That’s not a fact, but fake news.
March 17, 2018 at 14:49
You do like making up silly nonsense don’t you.
March 17, 2018 at 08:35
Hi dear Brit. Thank you for all. I have some question for you.
1. From what case density will diminish for Europe?
2. My case number is EU2689X and have I chance?
3. If I have a chance then on what month will be my interview?
Thanks beforehand
March 17, 2018 at 14:48
1. https://britsimonsays.com/2018-ceac-data-analysis/
2. Yes
3. Wait and see
March 17, 2018 at 14:33
HI SIMON
i have one QUE. for today
1,If I
appeared alone in the interview with out my family what will be the consequence ,in my form i said they will immigrate with me.ANY ANSWER FROM U IT WILL BE HELP FULL.
March 17, 2018 at 18:30
EU 302XX
Is my case number in the infamous risk zone?
Is it safe to assume that average monthly increase will be 2600 in toto? It has been so far this year.
Thank you kindly.
March 17, 2018 at 18:53
I don’t think that is risky – BUT wait and see.
March 17, 2018 at 23:55
Hi Brit, there is something I’m missing: For the SA region there is a no-response rate of more than 50%, less than a 100 visas issued per month (from October to January, so by May probably less than a 1000 visas would be issued) and a total quota around 1500 visas in the whole DV2018 process. How can be such a low cutoff number as 1500 expected then?
March 18, 2018 at 00:15
First – I don’t “expect” a cutoff that soon. Second, visa issuances in later months tend to be faster because of the closing AP cases from earlier months.
March 19, 2018 at 10:07
Thanks for your answer, Brit, each day I’m trying to learn more and more about this process. My little help is in the scraping.
Yet I just don’t quite grasp why the DV2018 -at leat for the SA region- wouldn’t behave more like an overselected year as 2014 (140.659 selectees) than 2015 (only 125.514 selectees), considering such a high non-response rate and low percentage of AP cases.
March 19, 2018 at 13:46
Both those years were overselected. If you are asking whether the final 2015 number will be exceeded – yes it probably will.
March 19, 2018 at 14:18
My only hope is that it gets up to CN 17XX. I’m waiting and seeing.
March 19, 2018 at 14:37
Good luck.
March 18, 2018 at 13:32
Hi Sir Simon!
I read your think higher numbers are at risk in the SA region. Could you tell us which number would you consider “safe”?
I’m waiting for the 2NLS to arrive, and I want to thak you so much for your help!
March 18, 2018 at 15:42
15XX
March 19, 2018 at 03:03
Brit,
The visa bulletin for may really surprised me a lot and throws a lot of questions in me if by September we will get to AF42000 To be called up for interview or better still go current.
March 19, 2018 at 04:06
Wait and see
March 19, 2018 at 07:20
AF case num after mine is in transit and mine hasn’t changed,what would be the case here?
March 19, 2018 at 09:18
Why can’t I see my cn on the chart?
March 19, 2018 at 13:40
@Me – make your question clear.
March 19, 2018 at 13:32
That happens and is normal.
March 19, 2018 at 11:54
Hi Brit. My case number is EU31xxx. it has been already 4 visa bulletin left to be known. as my cn is higher, i am very hopeless.
March 19, 2018 at 13:50
Patience.
March 19, 2018 at 12:02
Hi,
does the number of dv selectees in a country make any difference for the top case number reached in that country?
I’m from Serbia that has 560 selectees this year and my CN is EU 34XXX. Can I hope that the EU region goes current in August/September and I can squeeze in before the end? I hate being on the wrong side of the case number risk zone :/
March 19, 2018 at 13:56
The country selectees makes no difference. All you can do is wait and see.
March 19, 2018 at 13:56
you off a titan job my brother God bless you I am AF43567 I can pass when and I have even a chance to pass first? excuse me but I can not finish reading I risk a stroke
March 19, 2018 at 14:01
Wait and see.
March 19, 2018 at 19:52
Dear Brit,
I lived in Hungary for over a year while I am from Egypt, and I received my police record from Hungary, and I wrote on my request (for USA immigration) , but I am not really sure if the police record was really up to the USA expectation (as I know Hungarian authorities not very reliable) .. and my question is, If I already got my 2NL, does it mean that US already checked my record in Hungary (since I wrote in my DS260 the time I lived in Hungary) ?
Thanks,
Haithem Trabeek
March 19, 2018 at 20:13
I don’t know whether Hungarian authorities co-operate with USA or not – but that isn’t the point. As long as you followed instructions on the reciprocity page to obtain the police cert as instructed, then you have done all you need.
March 20, 2018 at 10:54
Thanks Brit
March 20, 2018 at 11:07
This is so clear if u use some common sense. Personally, I really think AF high numbers can have a chance. I am AF467** and i believe. The numbers I fear for are the “EXTREME” high AF numbers. Anyways, PATIENCE-RELAX-WAIT-SEE is our moto—-The numbers may be ETREMELY high numbers, not GIVE UP numbers—-AF can go current by sept.
Thanks Mr. Brit for ur time and effort.
March 20, 2018 at 12:24
Dear brit,
is there is any chance for ASIA to be current because of the high refusal numbers of visas (travel banned)
am just asking because my number is high AS116XXX
March 20, 2018 at 14:11
Possibly – wait and see.
March 20, 2018 at 16:25
I think we will see current for AS region within next two months. It’s around 2500 visas will be available because of the banned countries. Probably half of them will be destributed across other regions or all to EU.
March 20, 2018 at 14:50
Hi there,
Why would people no show up even they have already sent DS260,I thought that people are received the interview date if they have submitted DS 260.Am I missing something?
Thank you
March 20, 2018 at 16:48
Various reasons – it certainly happens.
March 20, 2018 at 17:38
So,more specifically, which cases could cause no show up thing?
March 20, 2018 at 17:51
You can use your imagination as well as I can to guess why someone would do that. No one publishes a list of reasons.
March 20, 2018 at 18:22
Sorry, I felt stupid right know as misunderstanding the point.I thought KCC or embassies do make people no “show up” but,whereas people somehow make decisions to not participate in interviews,right ?
March 20, 2018 at 18:30
Correct.
March 20, 2018 at 18:01
Hi Brit pls my name is Akua Effah Frimpomaa on all my documents but I graduated from the university last year and the name on my degree certificate is Akua Frimpomaa Effah pls can it cause a problem.Thank you
March 20, 2018 at 18:12
Typically not a problem if they are convinced this is your education document.