*********** UPDATE *************
I think we have the max numbers per region. Obviously there is a chance that these will be corrected, but at this point here is the findings. Thanks to those that helped!
REGION MAX NUMBERS
**** End of update – the text below shows the method used to get these numbers ****
Right now I am spending some time on finding the max case numbers for each region. From those max case numbers we can estimate how many people are selectees (after the 2nd draw), and people can figure out how high their case is compared to others.
The process of finding the max case number is this a manual, boring process. It is trial and error. I used to be able to extract the data programmatically, but I cannot do that at the moment since the government altered the website (adding the CAPTCHA). So – if anyone wants to help in the manual process I would appreciate the help.
What I do is this:-
I guess or estimate the number I think will exist for a region and enter that number. If I get a hit I increase the number until I don’t get a hit. To know when a range has no numbers I have to enter about 10 to 20 consecutive numbers, because there are holes (gaps) between the numbers. I have explained why in previous posts.
Once I have a low number HIT and a higher number MISS (probably a few hundred numbers apart), I simply try and refine the numbers closer together. I did this for EU region already.
So for EU I started at about 30500 (got hits) and at 31000 I found no hits. I tried 30700 range and found no hits, so I knew the number was between 30500 and 30700. I refined that further and eventually found the max EU number to be 2017EU30622.
I am 99% sure that is the highest number, although in previous years I have seen a few “anomalies”where a number will be higher by hundreds but all on its own. Those anomalies are “mistakes” in the draw process.
I am tracking my progress at the spreadsheet below. I am moving on to OC region (as I have estimates for OC and SA).
AS and AF regions are more unknown to me – so if people want to help with those I would be delighted.
AS is probably between 10000 and 13000.
AF is probably between 42000 and 45000.
I’ll refine that as we go.
The spreadsheet below is editable, so feel free to add info found with the same process I have described above.