Oh man. Someone today talked about the DV process being a rollercoaster ride. It certainly is – and this year more than other years.
Today we saw the VB released for June interviews. So – although there are over 5 full months of interviews left, there are now just 3 VBs left. The progress on todays VB was a “mixed bag” – good news for some, awful news for others.
I am extremely busy at work at the moment, so I cannot do much with the data, but thanks to Xarthisius and the people scraping, we ALL have the CEAC data. Everyone can see and analyze the data for themselves by downloading the latest file from here. To exclude “holes” simply filter out the cases with a status of “none”.
I will make a few brief points on each region though.
In Asia, the number for “rest of Asia” is moving fast. Nepal will continue to see some increases at roughly the same pace we have seen. Nepal cases end around 7000, and the Nepal final number will probably be a little under the that (leaving a few highest cases without interviews). That is a pattern we have seen before. Because of the travel ban, the rest of AS has been allowed to move ahead. If the travel ban stays in place, it is possible for the rest of Asia to go current. However, that would change if the ban is removed. The appeal is being heard by the Supreme Court at the end of April.
For Africa the VB progress was slightly lower than I expected. I honestly don’t know whether the current pace is sufficient to reach the quota. In reality, the enhanced security measures this year and to some extend the travel ban have meant there are a lot of visas remaining before the quota (21600) is met, since there are only about 8000 visas issued at this point. However, The pace of issuances in the latter half of the year is always higher for AF region, especially as AP cases are concluded alongside issuances from normal processing. So – we have to wait and see where the final numbers will fall. I am NOT going to try to predict that number.
Oceania is tracking more or less exactly as expected and is heading for the 1450/1500 final number.
South America had a good month – but there is not much reason to believe pace will increase any faster than the 175 we saw this month. So – that would get us to about 1700 ish.
For Europe there is obviously a big disappointment coming for many people. I was sure we were going to see numbers in the 30’s. I really don’t think that will happen now. We have been used to EU doing very well, and I was hopeful this year would see a good high number. However, I am more and more certain that we are going to see a shockingly low VB number. Why? Well we can look at two things to estimate remaining progress. The month to month pace (based on embassy capacity etc), and the progress toward the quota (18300).
First, the pace. KCC reduced the pace in terms of the number of “real” case numbers since March. The VBs for April, May and now June interviews have only made 1070 to 1200 new real cases current. By the time we take response rate into account that means they are setting interviews for ~600 to ~750 new cases each month (plus another 150 to 200 from “backlog” cases each month.
So how about the quota? From that pace we would only expect to see around 1200 to 1500 visas issued each month (approximately!). However, that will probably get close to the quota even at that pace, because there are 10500 visas issued already leaving about 7500 to 8000 visas left (and 5.5 months of processing). So – the pace seems to suggest that KCC believe they are on track to meet the quota with existing pace (similar to what we saw in the last 3 VBs).
So – at the current density (which remains static until high 30’s) we could see VB increases of around 2500 a month (give or take a couple of hundred). That would get us to about 28000 or even a little less. That could happen. We would need to see increases of more than 3000 to get over 30000 – but there is not much evidence to hint at that increase in pace. So – I think a final number in the high 20’s is very likely. I have been responding “wait and see” to high cases in the 20’s for around a month now. I was hoping the VB today would dispel the fears. It didn’t.
Again – the data is available for all – please feel free to retain your own hope – I cannot be certain what will happen. Feel free to disagree with me and form your own opinion. Really – all we can do is wait and see how this rollercoaster will end. I fully realize the dreams people have based on this lottery. Best of luck to you all for your own cases – but please do show some sensitivity for the many people who want and deserve this opportunity just as much as you do – and perhaps are behind you in the line.
April 17, 2018 at 11:00
Hello
Sir it the any possibility for all get number to go current by the end of vb this 2018
April 17, 2018 at 16:02
No – not for all regions. Maybe AS region, but not the others.
April 17, 2018 at 14:57
Hi Brit,
Playing again with “Ready” status cases in Cairo, Africa as of 16 April 2018 … there is couple of cases that are ready from 28 Jan, then updated “19 Mar” yet kept “Ready” and then 21 Mar then 28 Mar , then 3 Apr. And still “Ready”. Which looks like they had interview in March (yet not issued) for over a month for some cases. Is that normal? how long it can goes “Ready” specially that the embassy has the passports.
Thanks
April 17, 2018 at 15:54
Some cases will remain at ready forever, because the selectee didn’t show up for the interview.
April 17, 2018 at 18:45
I do understand that… but actually the “Ready” status date is changing which sounds like some actions are taking place on the case. Which made research more backward, to find out a case had interview in 1st Feb and the visa issued 27th March !!!! very interesting. It sounds like a question with no answer (what is the longest “Ready” Status ever after the interview?) !!
April 21, 2018 at 02:28
Hi haytham
My case was in Administrative processing for around 15days, after it went to ready now it 9 days, also i have asked a friend of me , he told me don’t worry you will have ( Issued) after (ready)
If there any news I will let you know…
Same for you
Thanks
April 17, 2018 at 19:05
What about those that are showing ready that have already gone for interview and they encounter a problem and the embassy have their passport and ask them to wait
April 17, 2018 at 19:48
As far as I understand, there is a bit difference between “problem” which may lead to status of “administrative processing” , or some papers needed which would keep the status at “Ready” for sometime. so, did they ask you for some extra papers?
April 18, 2018 at 15:25
Yea they did ask for extra docs which is have been given all with passport is with them cause they also said when coming with the doc bring along your passport is the any chance of the visa
April 19, 2018 at 10:50
Dear Haytham, your case still ready without issued?
April 19, 2018 at 12:29
Mary, I had the same, delivered the extra paper and still waiting “Ready” which is good so far (3 weeks this Sunday).
Heem, Yes my case still “Ready” without issue (so far, thanks god) for three weeks this Sunday. But I found case that had interview 8th Feb and issued 27 March in Cairo. So was wondering what is the limit for the time. you are from Cairo, Egypt?
April 19, 2018 at 15:59
Hello bro
I’m also have ready after the interview, and I don’t know what’s going on , pleas guys if you know any informations , share it with me pleas thanks ( it’s around 15 days now after 11 (AP) , thanks
April 19, 2018 at 17:03
Hey Yass,
It seems that there is no exact logic we know of. But as far as I was trying to find out about the development of cases (which was focus in Cairo, Egypt), a “ready” after “AP” is a good sign that may go shortly for “AP” then an “issued” , or directly “issued”.
It would be good if you tell us what will happen.
April 21, 2018 at 12:26
@Haytham
i have a friend his CN (AF205xx) from egypt
this number have a chance?
because mr simon don’t have any analysis about egypt
April 21, 2018 at 20:40
Hey Mayer,
No Analysis Needed ! Mr. Brit does not have to have analysis about Egypt. But Mr. Mayer can have a look on the VB for June which says 18500 for Egypt, Which leave us with a clear lucky guess that the VB for July for Egypt will Include your friend.
In short, your friend should have his/her interview in July…. will get his 2 NL by second half of May. Good luck and make a bit of effort.
Thanks,
Haytham
April 21, 2018 at 21:59
June interviews for Egypt are up to 18150.
April 21, 2018 at 21:30
@Haytham
sorry but VB for june say 18150 for egypt
or you write the number wrong and you mean that the next VB will icrease up to 2000 foe egypt and my friend CN will be included on it
April 22, 2018 at 09:27
Mayer,
Exactly 🙂
April 22, 2018 at 15:26
Haytham thank you very much
at last i hear good news
April 24, 2018 at 21:19
Hello haytham
Hello everyone
Haytham how are you , I hope everything going well,
I just want to ask you, if you get your visa?
If it yes, how long time it took to be issued?
By the way mine still ( ready ) no change ? I’m worried
Thanks
April 26, 2018 at 23:01
Hi Yass,
Mine as well , still “ready” and I am worried too. Where did you have your interview? when did you have your interview?
I am thinking of sending an email to ask, maybe they forgot my case :)))
Thanks
April 17, 2018 at 15:35
Hey Brit,
with all the calculations, and statistics showing up here will AF reach 45000?
April 17, 2018 at 15:52
We can only wait and see.
April 17, 2018 at 16:21
It really frustrating, please give me some analysis of reaching 43500 or not pls Brit
Thanks
April 17, 2018 at 16:43
I appreciate it’s frustrating – but you are going to have to be patient. Or you can take a look at the data and do your own analysis.
April 17, 2018 at 19:00
don’t understand how to do the analysis that why I ask for your help
April 19, 2018 at 09:47
very small chances ( i would say 10-20%)
April 17, 2018 at 20:03
hi Brit. I have some questions for you.
1. On what month visas will be end for EU?
2. My CN is EU267XX and have I chance?
3. Last year they gave near 20k visas for Europe. In this year they will do it?
4. Some people said that one of these days the visas will end.
Sincerely
April 17, 2018 at 21:03
1. The VB released in July will be the final VB.
2. I don’t know for sure – Wait and see.
3. No.
4. No question asked.
April 18, 2018 at 04:49
Ok. Thans for respons. But where are you know about visas kvota for EU? You say 18.3k but last year has been 20k.
April 18, 2018 at 09:09
Mr/Mrs Goodbye , your “4. Some people said that one of these days the visas will end.” sentences. Where did you read this. Also please don’t believe everything. You can see all the data until 16.04.2018 about DV2018 on dvcharts page. Only 16000 visa including (AP+Issued+ Ready) have been processed. Ready’s are very much. According to my opinion appr. 3000 visa will not show up. 3000 + 2300 = 5300 available after May. Then your forecasting time with this data. 🙂
Also I am really wondering about the quota. I didn’t the find the proof of 18300. Probably given visas will exceed 18300.
April 18, 2018 at 14:20
My head hurts.
April 18, 2018 at 14:40
It’s a formula – link below. Last year there were additional visas used from other regions as those regions did not use their quota.
https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1083/0-0-0-1159.html
April 18, 2018 at 15:05
Thank you.
April 18, 2018 at 15:06
Thanks Brit
April 22, 2018 at 04:16
there is no formula in this link. could you please tell us ” hey guys! I found the number 18300 in the following way…
April 22, 2018 at 05:00
Yes there is a formula, but it’s complicated and laborious, and you have to know the populations of each country. But I can tell you the 18300 is the correct quota at 50000.
April 17, 2018 at 23:08
i am too in EU269xx, it all depends on how many % of those ready cases respond to the interview. If respond rate is 60-65 we cant get the visas as 18300 quote will be finished, if however respond rate is about 50% there is a chance that that will get past EU27000 by a few hundreds. My opinion with my calculations. Good luck
April 17, 2018 at 22:53
How to change the place of interview The US Embassy – Special Immigration Lottery to America.
What are the correct steps for this action after sending the Kentucky Center?
The reason for changing the place of the interview is the difficulty of entering the country because of the imposition of the visa on the Libyan citizens.
April 17, 2018 at 23:21
KCC schedule interviews based on the home address. So – if you have to change to a different country because you moved, you make sure your address is correct (in the country of interview), then contact KCC to ask them to schedule in the new country.
April 18, 2018 at 11:13
hello Brit,
Is there any probability for EU333XX for interview and get visa ? OR it is zero any longer? 🙁
April 18, 2018 at 14:16
It’s VERY risky. Other than that – wait and see.
April 18, 2018 at 12:20
1) Why in 2015 & 2016 EU quota was 40%? Could you mention the sources? Where is that formula about 36.6% of EU quota posted? Where figure of 18300 for EU is mentioned? Any statistic about proving 36.6% for other years?
2) How do you could explaing rising of visas issued for the last 3 months (about 2.2k per months). What way KCC could reach global 50k quota in case they have some obstacles with travel ban and seems them hard to issue visas in AF because of huge refused ratio, non response and so on…they have extremly amount of ready cases. Closing EU at 18300 leads to very low global amount of visa issued response.
April 18, 2018 at 14:13
1. Here is a formula https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1083/0-0-0-1159.html
The numbers aren’t posted – just the formula. Someone has gathered all the data to operate the formula.
2. I don’t know what more I can explain to you. EU will meet the quota – other regions have some risk of not meeting the quota for various regions, but overall the global quota may be reached – but even if that isn’t reached – that is not a problem for KCC etc.
April 18, 2018 at 18:02
I trusted you about my 29800 is safe and I made a big mistake to miss dv19…. Y’d better change your predictions after the 15 of july…making people waiting calm… I don’t trust any of your word now….and not me only. The result of you predictions you are wrong! Now or earlier…that is a fact which doesn’t need to be proof
April 18, 2018 at 18:17
Didikoko
Please for once stop blaming britsimon he is neither a law maker nor kcc to decide on your case and beside compare ur nber with mine AF51k and see that ur nber ain’t even high. We should at least learn how to appreciate, he’s not paid for the work he does.
Thank you very much for your effort Brit Simon
April 18, 2018 at 18:37
Do you realize how ridiculous you sound right?! Can you provide a Proof that shows Simon told you not to register to DV2019? Where on this blog does it says anything is sure? Or you haven’t seen the thousands of warnings or “wait and see” answers? Do you know how lotteries and probabilities work? Did Simon select you, send you 1NL or 2NL, schedule the interviews? Did he take control over your mind? Did he threaten you? Did he hypnotize you? Did he force you to visit his blog or even read his posts? NO YOU DID THAT ON YOUR OWN. BLAME YOURSELF. How pitiful to blindly trust or rely on an amateur source whose only purpose is help and guidance?! You cannot blame someone else for your own lack of judgement… at the end of the day Simon has and willkeep helping millions who unlike you are showing gratitude for his selflessness… accountability is key! Change your mindset, maybe good things will happen to you…
April 18, 2018 at 18:41
I just say it once again! “The result of you predictions you are wrong! Now or earlier… ” No blaming just a fact
April 18, 2018 at 18:44
by the way EXUSE me for my straightness
April 18, 2018 at 18:49
“Straightness” is when you tell the truth.
Your first ever question to me is linked below. I told you to “wait and see”.
https://britsimonsays.com/march-update-on-vb-progress/comment-page-1/#comment-106604
And by the way – this question was asked in March – several months after DV2019 entry period had finished.
April 18, 2018 at 18:47
OK – so now you FINALLY see the reality that there will be a cutoff and now you are angry at me. Despite that I said that I could be wrong a thousand times. Despite my saying “wait and see” was the best answer 10,000 times. OK.
April 18, 2018 at 19:10
The reality I will go and take my visa! But I have to live these day extremly nervous and Im sure you are not right. That is MY reality without Cal’s predictions, quatas never mentioned and so on…
April 18, 2018 at 21:16
OK. At least you have been informed.
April 19, 2018 at 08:08
yeah my english is not native as you guess….I asked you several times about some facts in progress but you stand on mysterious quota which has never been implemented and always overtook. Just ask you once again. IS 18300 quota your INSIDE or not? If not? please never use this figure in your predictions. Please use 40.5% for EU as old statistic says. Please Use 10.7 refuse rate for your predictions. Please note! to issue visas, even for 18300, the amount of ready cases should take a pace forward which require some new cases. And you will see your previous figures about 32-33k. That is my reality.
April 19, 2018 at 14:14
You don’t understand, or don’t want to accept. That’s OK. Wait and see. No need to keep arguing.
April 19, 2018 at 09:45
Dear didikoko (btw I like your nickname;) )
Look at yourself and what do you see? Frustrated man, blaming others for things they can not affect on.
You are ate “blaming” stage right now.
What you should expect to experience is:
1. Denial (U have been there)
2. Blaming / angry (U are here)
3. Deppresion (next)
4. Acceptation (next)
Darling, please stop blaming Simon for things he does not affect on or things you have not done (dv19).
We are all in grief mood. I accepted reality and I know what to expect even which much less number. It is over.
I hope and really wish you will be invited to embassy. If not – Didikoko, life goes on. remember – with or without US aswell.
April 19, 2018 at 10:02
You will say it’s over 15 of july 2018. Till now it’s not over. I leave this resource im sorry and no one message will be posted from me here, It’s better to wait without information/disinformation from here. it would better to meet the game over at once than living 3 moths with your depressive predictions. I believe we are all get our visas and there a lot fact to happen. Im sorry your glass is half empty…mine one if full of. All the best!
April 19, 2018 at 14:04
OK. Bye.
April 19, 2018 at 14:06
Yes indeed – the stages of grief.
April 18, 2018 at 14:16
didikoko we all wish everyone will get interview but the data says response rate is too high this year. For example , last year’s response rate was 49% but this year it reaches 60% almost. And derivatives via Ozbekistan is too high. So, last three months which remains should extraordinary things so that we can see higher VB. When we look at previous years which more than 100K selectee , more than 50K visas issued. In my opinion , this year might be same. We can see 52K visas. But, we do not know how many of them will be used in EU. If they will use 21K , maybe 33K-35K CNs might see interview. We can not talk with numbers any more , we can talk with possibilities
April 18, 2018 at 18:12
thank you
April 18, 2018 at 15:17
How I can know how many cases between af 28300 and af 3267+ using the data
April 18, 2018 at 18:29
Hello BritSimon,
First of all, thank you very much for such an informative and useful blog.
I have two questions and I would be thankful if you answer them.
1- My number EU34XXX and I live in the US (I also already paid for the DV fees in few months ago). According to your assessment, it seems almost impossible to be invited for an interview, but I was wondering whether living in the US brings any advantage to get an interview.
2- Is there any legal process to follow if I am not called for an interview?
Thanks,
April 18, 2018 at 18:41
1. No advantage. If your number doesn’t become current, you cannot start the adjustment process. It sucks. You will also lose the DV fee you already paid.
2. No. There is no recourse. The process has rules, one of those being the visa has to be available according to the VB case number. The selection letter you received did not guarantee you a GC – so there is no basis upon which to complain.
April 18, 2018 at 19:13
Hey John, what fees did you have to pay if you haven’t have been scheduled for an interview yet? Are you consular processing or AOS? Unfortunately, any case not issued a visa by the end of the FY (09/30/18) won’t be able to do anything anymore. No special treatment for people on US soil either. We all have to follow the same strict rules, whatever the outcome might be, to ensure fairness. Let’s wait and see. Who knows what might happen with the last 3 VBs
April 18, 2018 at 21:15
AOS processing requires payment of the DV fee before submitting the I-485 package. Unfortunately some people send that fee too soon.
April 19, 2018 at 06:35
Dear Brit, I have one more question. It seems many people are very concerned about their numbers. However, I am wondering whether there is any example in the past that a person in any region was selected but not called for an interview. The historical visa bulletin numbers show that in the previous years, almost everyone who filled out the DS260 form, sooner or later, had an interview. Am I wrong???
April 19, 2018 at 09:56
That hppend Ofcourse many times.
Current for europe is not every year.
April 19, 2018 at 14:16
Yes you are wrong. Cutoffs were in place in many of the previous years.
April 18, 2018 at 22:00
What is the quota number for Oceania?
April 18, 2018 at 22:14
790
April 18, 2018 at 22:56
How did you calculate that? btw, how many visas have already been used in Oceania? Is the response rate same or more than last year? Someone mentioned it’s nearly 50 percent response rate.
April 18, 2018 at 23:15
The quota is a set formula. The quota includes CP and AOS cases, so we won’t see 790 issued by CP alone – the target for issued in CEAC therefore is about 700 (at most).
As of now (just over 6 months) they have issued 369 visas (CP). By the end of this month, that number will be close to 400 – i.e. more than half the available visas. That is from the first 875 case numbers. The response rate in OC is always low – but this year is behaving the same as every other year.
You originally asked me about your case number in June last year. I made it clear then that your number is too high. That assessment hasn’t changed.
April 19, 2018 at 14:52
Hi, BritSimon. Could you please make the same updated analysis for the SA region? Is the response rate similar tan other years? I’m worried the last Visa bulletin doesn’t even reach CN 1700.
April 19, 2018 at 14:59
That is already covered in the article above.
April 25, 2018 at 15:25
It doesn’t look like OC will reach 1450/1500 to me based on average monthly progress for this year. I would think 1300-ish would be more likely.
April 25, 2018 at 16:08
Yeah maybe high 13XX, but I would be surprised if it isn’t 14-something by the end. We’ll see. The main thing I am trying to convey is the certainty that OCers over 1500 have almost no chance.
April 19, 2018 at 00:49
Hi Britsimon,
Sorry to bother you. Do you know how many selectees from Egypt and Ethiopia are there?
April 19, 2018 at 01:00
The selectee numbers are in the July 2017 VB.
April 19, 2018 at 14:17
I have called kcc. she said 28k is safe for eu. but she said this is unoffical decleration. maybe you want know this.
April 19, 2018 at 14:38
The staff at KCC don’t actually control or even know the numbers ahead of time for even the next month, let alone three months. So – even if they did say that (and we only have your word they did), neither you nor anyone else should rely on that statement.
April 19, 2018 at 21:29
Please don’t give people fake informations… the cut off will be less than 26k, and this is it. This are just facts, not even predictions….
April 19, 2018 at 21:38
How do we know that your information is fake or not Mr/Mrs Dana.
April 21, 2018 at 16:35
I don’t know, maybe you can look at the numbers and do the math, or read the blog
April 23, 2018 at 14:34
Dont Worry I have read many times.
April 19, 2018 at 14:51
Hi Brit!
I want know how many case number we have between the case number Af 28300 and Af 43000.
Thanks for replay
April 19, 2018 at 18:09
Hi haytham
My case was in Administrative processing for around 15days, after it went to ready now it 9 days, also i have asked a friend of me , he told me don’t worry you will have ( Issued) after (ready)
If there any news I will let you know…
Same for you
Thanks
April 22, 2018 at 09:26
Yass, I do not know. It has no logic. But if it went “ready”after “AP” it is a good sign.
April 19, 2018 at 21:45
Hi BritSimon! First of all, thanks again for all the updates and analysis you provide. It’s obvious that the cut-off number for Europe is going to be way lower than anyone expected. Still, I have a theory I’d like to share to give a little hope to all of us who are in the high 20s-early 30s range. The way visas were being processed the first 3 months (with a LOT of visas being issued at a higher rate than usual (especially to countries like Albania, Ukraine, etc.) probably made KCC step on the brakes and reduce the number of cases made current (as we’ve seen the last three moths) to regain the right pace by the end of June. I’ve made some calculations based on the charts and by June the number of issued visas will probably be somewhere around 14,000-14,200. So, If so, I think there is a good chance they will increase the pace for the July, August and September interviews to make sure they hit the quota. Considering response rate, derivative rate, etc. that means they could aim to make around 5000 cases current for the last three months. So, start counting the number of real cases starting at 20,300 (the June VB number) and that takes you somewhere around case number 31,000. I’m afraid that’s the most optimistic theory we can make at this point, and it might be a stretch…
April 19, 2018 at 22:05
Yeah, I think that is, as you say, “the most optimistic theory we can make at this point”…
April 19, 2018 at 22:37
After reading all this comments we can conclude that the most pessimistic prediction for EU region is 24-25k, moderately pessimistic / optimistic 26-28k, and the most optimistic 29-31k, but general conclusion is that everyone after 24-25k is risky. I hope that it’s going to be the most optimistic one.
April 20, 2018 at 05:03
Hi
Could you please inform why this link https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/login.html is not active?
Tried to open several days,but failed.
April 20, 2018 at 13:53
It is working. Try again – if it doesn’t work, try another browser/clear cache.
April 20, 2018 at 08:12
Hello Brit!
I was doing some reviews on the data provided by xarthisius, in the EU region if you collect the number of visas for issued, refused, AP and ready in TOTAL, for the date 2018-04-16 the sum is 17712, but for the date 2018-04-05 the sum is 17137.
Obviously there is a difference of 575 visas. What do you think, how is that possible?
Thanks a lot!
April 20, 2018 at 13:48
Marriages and births mainly. A case might be ready as a single person, and by the time the case is issued, the person got married and now has a step child. So – 1 ready – turns to 3 issued.
By the way – I describe that as derivative growth – and have tracked that as a factor.
April 20, 2018 at 14:20
I understand derivative growth, but in the majority of cases the person that has had a plan to marry usually does that prior to the month he gets current, not when he gets the 2NL (that is the most usual, advisable and safest way). So the derivative growth is taken to consideration in the TOTAL NUMBER of ready cases.
If you compare these two dates (2018-04-05 and 2018-04-16) there are 11 days in timeline, and if you see the difference between (AP+READY for 2018-04-16) 6155 – (AP+READY for 2018-04-05) 5585 = 570.
In the other hand these 570 have been split between ISSUED and REFUSED, but from 2018-04-05 to 2018-04-16 there have been refused 83 visas and have been issued 1062.
So……570 – 83 (refused) = 487, but we see 1062 issued. so there are 575 cases plus
Correct me, but I think we are missing something.
April 20, 2018 at 14:47
2NLs are based on initial entries.
April 20, 2018 at 15:07
Well, that seems a very important factor that xarthisius’s data does not take in consideration, and that unfortunately has a big contribute in the big number of issued visas even in the coming months, so less and less hope for big numbers.
Anyway, thanks a lot! Keep up the good work!
April 20, 2018 at 15:46
Well you have to also account for In Transit cases which you are not accounting for, and we cannot possibly know the derivative growth specifics or the cases that have not yet turned ready.
April 20, 2018 at 15:39
So by this logic, it means that for every 1 ready case there are about 2 issued cases (1062 / 487) so instead of 4139 cases ready (2018-04-16) we have about 8200 cases.
Add that to 10963 already issued and we come up to 19241 visas issued, about 1000 visas over the regions quota. I think we might hit the limit even earlier, maybe in July.
April 20, 2018 at 15:56
No.
First. We have the derivatives (just not derivative growth) on ready cases – so the 4139 is people. It is at NVC and In Transit where we don’t know the people, only cases.
Second. Not all ready cases go for interview or are issued. Some never show for the appointment, some get refused and so on.
April 20, 2018 at 15:48
No. Play with the slider that’s under the table and see how the numbers change…
Number of Ready cases through out the whole year (or at least the period when we have data) oscillates between 4000 and 6000, i.e. it’s constant. Whereas, number of Issued cases started with 0 and will reach some number at the end of FY. Dividing those two quantities at a single point in time doesn’t really make sense.
April 20, 2018 at 15:36
The data in the table summarizes people, not cases. There’s no way of knowing the number of people associated to a case before its status turns to Ready.
Keep in mind that data provided on my page is just a raw dump of CEAC db (with some visualization sprinkled on top). I don’t do any predictions or analyses. Therefore, there’s nothing that I can or cannot take into consideration.
April 20, 2018 at 15:31
Some of the cases that were In Transit were accepted by embassies and turned ready.
April 20, 2018 at 15:52
I understand your work, and if its possible I have to congratulate and thank you in the name of all dv winners of this year and the years to come, without your data maybe we would not see nothing at all!
But maybe that table misses an “in transit” column that has a big impact in the final numbers.
Again, thanks a lot!
April 20, 2018 at 10:07
ANOTHER POSITIVE THEORY FOR EU… I’m going to be the optimistic one here, I know… maybe I just want to cling to the dream, but I think the following theory has some solid data to support it. Basically, I think (or rather hope) we are going to see a dramatic increase in pace for EU in the next few months. Why? Well, the way processing has been working this year so far it’s obvious that Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Albania have been MAJORLY affecting the pace. As BritSimon says, embassy capacity has a lot to do with it. Just those 3 countries have taken up in the vicinity of 25% of all EU visas so far. For instance Ukraine has had 671 visas issued so far while Spain and Netherlands only 6 each. That is because those countries (Uzbekistan, Ukraine, and probably Albania) not only have (obviously) way more selectees than Spain or the Netherlands but also because they have most of their cases concentrated in lower case numbers. For instance, if you check the charts you’ll see that Uzbekistan is pretty much through by now (with very few case numbers ready after 12,000). So probably, what we are seeing is those countries all capping out under the 20,000 case numbers and getting most of their visas issued by then. Also, take into account that those countries have especially high derivative case ratios. So what all this means is that after June which is when those countries will be pretty much “done” and their embassies won’t have “capacity issues”, the other countries will start catching-up, countries with much lower derivative ratios, which means more cases have to be made current in order to issue the necessary number of visas. Of course, this optimistic theory doesn’t mean all EU cases will be current by September, not by a long shot! This year was obviously overselected from the get-go, but it could mean a cut-off number closer to EU32500. What do you think? Am I being too optimistic? 😉
April 20, 2018 at 11:03
Perhaps we see Except : cases for 3 three countries in the next VB.
April 20, 2018 at 13:44
I think that is too positive. I think you are correct in much of your assumption – I have suggested the same myself. BUT the “damage” has already been done. Issuances in the big 5 have provided a powerful machine to eat up the visas.
April 20, 2018 at 14:23
Maybe it is too positive… or maybe it’s just that these year the queue was organized a bit differently, and it all comes down to embassy capacity of the “big 5”, but most notably to that of the Ukraine. I think that the queue was roughly split in two. The first half (up until VB number 20,300) was comprised of mostly the Big 5. In fact, that’s quite true if we check the available data. So, they were processing in terms of those embassies capacities, especially I think the one for Ukraine. The logic behind this is actually quite fair if you think about it. Other years, let’s say at this point VB number would be around 30,000 which meant that probably people with a 30000 case number from let’s say Spain would get an interview before people with a 15000 case number in Ukraine simply because of embassy capacity. In the end, I think the number of visas for the big 5 will be roughly the same as in other years, the difference is they’ve been all pretty much processed in the first 9 months. Once the Ukraine embassy is out of the way (as Uzbekistan already is), all other embassies can pretty much deal with any number of cases because there won’t be a capacity issue. If let’s say they made 2000 real cases current next month and not many of them were in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, etc. (which they won’t) but more evenly split among the other 33 countries, those embassies could process them perfectly. That’s why, albeit it’s optimistic, I think we could hit around EU32000. We shall wait and see, but I think the whole embassy hold-up makes a lot of sense.
April 20, 2018 at 15:31
when a bulletin is placed in current, that means that all the cases that have sent their DS-260 will be called without exception ??
April 20, 2018 at 15:53
If their DS260s are processed – that is what is supposed to happen, yes.
April 21, 2018 at 06:59
Hi i Have question my Number is 2018AS1310* if the VB for Next month go current how will be can you explain to me they will send for all or how? the second question is did i will have interview or not?
April 21, 2018 at 07:53
Hi BritSimon! Do you know where I can find the total number of final greencards issued per country for DV2015?
April 21, 2018 at 14:50
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html
April 21, 2018 at 14:52
This is better.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
April 21, 2018 at 16:47
Thanks a lot!!!
April 21, 2018 at 15:11
Hi Brit Simon,
What are the chances for 2018AF21XXX
I’m from Egypt
Please use your calculations / predictions and write the result in %
Wait and see is a no go 🙂
April 21, 2018 at 15:16
I don’t know.
April 21, 2018 at 15:55
Fine,
What about the next 3 VBs and cut-offs for Egypt?
Is it possible to see a big difference than what follows?
I asking you about your experience studing DV during previous years not about future predictions this time.
May
16,400
18,150
June
18,150
20,350
July
20,350
April 21, 2018 at 17:00
Wait and see – really!
April 21, 2018 at 17:41
Better Wait and watch like the classic Nintendo Game & Watch.
Oh man!! i hate waiting .. i gotta find some fortune teller urgently 😀
April 21, 2018 at 16:16
studying DV..
Don’t worry, i’m not going to come here later to tell you whether you said was right or wrong.
I know you are not a magician 😀
April 21, 2018 at 17:03
LOL
April 22, 2018 at 00:17
hello brit! Eu case nr 22*** do u think next vb will include me. Thank u
April 22, 2018 at 00:43
Be patient.
April 22, 2018 at 03:08
hi simon , im f1 status and i did fingerprint april 4th 2018,but i did not get letter from usisc for interview date ,my question, is it going to be late or it will be someting wrong i mean collaps
April 22, 2018 at 03:12
sorry i m dv winner 2018 case number 32xxx form nepal but in usa
April 22, 2018 at 05:02
Patience.
April 22, 2018 at 23:48
Hi
I saw 2015 statistics and found out that the cut off for Africa was 43000 ,am I right?? If so then there is no need to worry because the same visa bulletin too stopped around where itiit is now and a great number of cases went current up till September. From June onward more cases will become current
April 23, 2018 at 00:04
No – you are not correct – and your assumptions are wrong.
April 23, 2018 at 12:32
Hello Brit,
My quesyion is how you know kcc will give 50k visa exatly ? In 2013 and 2014, they gave 52k visa. Your 18300 expectation is when you based 50k ? For example , iran is banned and their visa will spread to other refions ? Can you tell me how you can be sure
April 23, 2018 at 14:02
I am NOT sure because it is a QUOTA – a target. That does NOT mean it will be exactly 18300 or 50000- it could be less or more.
April 23, 2018 at 13:34
o my god,Im EU38XXX …I haven’t chance 🙁 ?
April 23, 2018 at 13:58
No – probably not. I’m sorry.
April 23, 2018 at 14:02
Hello guys. Why does Albania have a high response rate? For example in 2017th Albania get 2,436 visas of 2,373. Is it possible!? Does this mean that Albania in 2018th can get 3,500+ visas? About another strong country 0 Armenia, this country has one of the highest response rate, and i think Armenia can get a. 2200+ visas from 2,884.
I try to think good thoughts. But after june`s bulletin (20,300) we`ll see at least four big countries which case numbers evenly distributed from 1 to 39,695: Russia, Turkey, Albania, Armenia. And this countries will eat the remaining visas very quickly. That`s not cool.
April 23, 2018 at 16:53
Dont worry Turkeys response rate is not big. 4390 selectees. But for 5 months appr 700 visas issued.
April 23, 2018 at 17:12
Briti didnt answer your question because he dont now what to say :)…..Up till now ALBANIA have give 1300 vissa .If Albania have to give 3500 vissa this year vb must go current because have some high number
April 23, 2018 at 18:07
Albania does NOT need to get 3500 – and EU being current is IMPOSSIBLE.
April 23, 2018 at 20:59
Brit I now that if vb being current not have meaning all the people have interview ,but give visas for place haven’t arrive 7% quota or I wrong??
April 23, 2018 at 21:46
No country can exceed the limit. So – yes – your understanding is correct.
April 24, 2018 at 08:09
ok…this means that would not be a miracle if it comes current ,for this reason that we said…
April 24, 2018 at 14:04
No, it does NOT mean that!
April 24, 2018 at 20:43
I don’t understand why you are so sure,because and before some months you were so sure for something else 🙂
April 24, 2018 at 20:55
About EU being current – no – that has never changed. Feel free to just wait and see though…. really!
April 23, 2018 at 15:12
Hi,
What do you think about the chance of “EU287XX” ?
Thanks in advance.
Regards,
Mic
April 23, 2018 at 16:18
Somewhat at risk – wait and see.
April 23, 2018 at 19:11
Wow. EU issue rate is on an exponential increase . You guys need to pray for the NACARA visas.
April 23, 2018 at 20:09
Mr/Mrs strong in Marc 2077 Visas (Issued + Ready), In April 1413 (Issued + Ready) according to last CEAC data file.I think that is not an increase. But I really agree with you about praying NACARA.
April 23, 2018 at 19:27
How can the big EU counties eat the visas? Isn’t there a limit per country? For example max 15% per country? This could be the chance for the “smaller” countries they can reach higher numbers by this. BritSimon?
April 23, 2018 at 19:57
There is a limit per country – no single country can take more than 7% of the GLOBAL quota – meaning 3500. But this year there are FIVE countries with a high number of selectees – so those countries will take a large chunk of the EU quota.
April 24, 2018 at 02:26
Simple question:
Every month in avarage for EU region they issue about 2000 visas. The avarage peace is 2300CN a month. Till today they issued 11500 visas. That means that for may, june, july, august and september (5 months) there is about 6800 visas left. With this peace, they will run out of visas, so they have to slow down the pace. It’s simple thinking but is it correct?
April 24, 2018 at 02:42
That is what they did for April, May and June interviews.
April 24, 2018 at 03:45
But if there is 6800 visas remaining they can issue only 1300 visas a month formthe rest 5 months. If they continue to increase CN by 2300 a month (which gives 2000 visas) they will run out of visas. So now they have to aim to issue 1300 for the next 5 months. So they have to slow down the progress.is that correct? Or they can keep the 2300 CN progress which, because of the holes ect. will give them 1300 visas issuance? I am just trying to understand it
April 24, 2018 at 03:47
They have reduced pace. That doesn’t mean they reduced to get down to 1300, just reduced. So now we have to wait and see what happens.
April 24, 2018 at 05:59
Ok, thank you.
April 24, 2018 at 06:19
Is there any chance that the 18300 visa numbers will be more? Maybe 19500 or 20000? So can this quota be stretched? And do you see such a possibility? Do I have a chance for the Eu271xx? So do I have to suppress my excitement, trying to understand.thax
April 24, 2018 at 10:58
27k EU very small chances. sorry
April 24, 2018 at 12:50
You have a chance, but no more than 18300 visas. After the next bulletin in May, things should be clear, where the cut off will be and such..
April 24, 2018 at 14:18
There are a couple of ways that can happen.
The 18300 is the quota at 50000.
1. There are 5000 additional visas allocated to the NACARA, SOME of which have been taken back by DV in some past years. For each 1000 visas of the 500, EU would get 370 extra.
2. If a region cannot use all its visas, then those visas can be used by other regions. AS is likely to underfill.
The problem with both 1 and 2 is timing/pace.
April 24, 2018 at 14:28
Hi brit. How are you?
1. For each 1000 visas of the 5000, SA would get how many visas?
2. How they determine the priority of the zona? For example you name that AS is likely underfill. So that visas will go to which zone?
Thanks
April 24, 2018 at 16:53
1. 30
2. The other regions.
To be clear – I don’t think this will happen – so wait and see.
April 24, 2018 at 07:09
Yes. Yep. That’s right. Sure. You bet
April 24, 2018 at 08:19
I’ve made my own handler to process the latest Xarthisius’s data. First of all, I tried to check a theory about decreasing derivative rate (DR) with CNs increase. So, for EU it doesn’t work.
http://oi63.tinypic.com/iz3o93.jpg
Number above 18XXX shouldn’t be considered, ’cause a lot of case numbers haven’t appeared yet.
So, average DR below 18000 now is 2.336 and I think it won’t change. My DR include every cases except “At NVC” and the holes.
So, if you guys have any ideas for additional data analysis – put them here and I’ll try to make them if I have a free time.
April 24, 2018 at 14:02
Exclude Uzbekistan and Ukraine. Now check the derivative rate.
In fact – take the derivative rate per embassy – you will see large differences. Even Ukraine is different to Uzbekistan.
April 24, 2018 at 14:52
No, w/o THT and KEV It just lil reduces the average rate to 2.265,
http://i63.tinypic.com/wso1ax.jpg
THT has DR of 2.576 and KEV has 2.497, MOS has 2.278, YRV has 2.689
By the way, AF DR below 22K is 1.846 and really seems to reduce:
https://preview.ibb.co/k1xT1x/13.jpg
So, what region has bigger families? )))
April 24, 2018 at 16:42
So – if The U2 have high derivative rates (as they do) and ALL of their cases are current below 18k – the going forward rate will be based on other countries which generally have lower derivative rates. Therefore we will see a lowering of the derivative rate.
Oh – and about AF families. Don’t jump to false conclusions. There are reasons why the AF rate is lower. Ghana has an impossibly low derivative rate but that speaks to fraud more than family size. In other AF countries, the average family size versus cost might be prohibitive. For instance, the average family size in Kenya is over 6 people. The average ANNUAL income is just over $1000. So – 6 medical fees, 6 DV fees, 6 flights, 6 GC fees. That would mean the actual average Kenyan family would have to spend over 10 years income on the DV process….
April 24, 2018 at 08:41
Hi brit
Sir it the any possibility for afriqu get all number to go current by the end of vb this 2018
April 24, 2018 at 13:59
That is unlikely, but wait and see.
April 24, 2018 at 13:33
Hi Brit
Maybe I’m a little bit dreaming these days, regarding the fact I have EU28000.
If we consider everyone’s analysis here and current pace, we can think of our own cut-off, lets say 26K.
We see CNs like 40000. Don’t you think that it will be kinda ruining of the dvlottery’s reputation in situation where numbers above that imaginary 26K left with empty hands?
In addition, can they or will they make any possible move to reach as high as they can?
Thank you.
April 24, 2018 at 13:53
DV2016 and DV2017 have given DV newbies the idea that regions go current. THat isn’t the norm. In DV2015 for instance, the AF final cutoff was 50000, while the highest AF number was 90000. They are not worried about “reputation”.
April 24, 2018 at 14:19
Seems legit. I still meant “reputation”, not reputation, my bad. 😀
April 24, 2018 at 16:54
Hello Brit,
I follow you since beginning. My questions are ;
Is there any chance EU visa to exceed or close to 20K ?
Is there any chance all visas to exceed 50K ? (Nacara or overselectee ? )
Do you think response rate will drop to 50% for rest of EU region?
Do you think EU34xxx has chance to have interview?
thank you
April 24, 2018 at 16:58
1. Technically possible, but unlikely.
2. Technically possible, but unlikely.
3. No
4. Realistically, probably not.
April 24, 2018 at 18:32
thank you for response. I understand that posibility of having interview is based on high visa number for EU like if they give 20-21K visa for EU. If it is stacked at 18K, it will be not possible.
And also, I understand that 33K-34K is very risky but not impossible for high EU visa will be published..
lets wait and see
thank you
April 24, 2018 at 17:37
Brit,is there any hope for dv 2020 application.
April 24, 2018 at 17:46
Really? Wait and see.
April 24, 2018 at 18:47
Hello Brits. Sorry to bother you again,quick question. Over the course of 1 week,~300 visas issued for AF and about 100 refused. So the refuse rate ~30%. I also get the same result by dividing total refused /issued ~=30%. Now my question is this ,is this refusal rate particularly higher than previous years or it’s deja vu. I say this because AF is currently at 2700 refused and if this rate stays the same , it would surpass Dv2015(come September ) which ended with 4k refused.
April 24, 2018 at 20:02
It is likely there will be a few more refusals this year due to the travel ban and additional security measures.
April 24, 2018 at 21:59
THIS POST IS ALL ABOUT EU. So many numbers, so many theories, so much anguish… everybody wants to know what the final Vb number will be. I’ve made some of the most optimistic predictions lately, and I stick by them. I’ve been going through a lot of numbers to back them up, ’cause there are a number of ways to look at the problem. Two things have been worrying people with higher case numbers: 1) the slow pace of the VB numbers and 2) the high amount of visas issued by now. If you look at both things compared to previous years, there is a HUGE difference. And hence, the worry. Now, what I’ve been trying to understand is WHY. Because if you understand the “why” it is easier to make predictions. People might think the WHY is because for some “strange reason” this year’s response and derivative rate is higher in the Big 5. Well, I don’t think it’s that different. I think the WHY has to do with the processing, the way it’s been organized this year. Here’s an analogy: it’s like cashier lines in the supermarket. Each cashier is an embassy. Now, in previous years, there would be huge lines in front of some cashiers (Ukraine, Uzbekistan, etc.) that would move at their maximum capacity, but other lines with fewer selectees (pretty much all other countries) would move much faster, kinda like the Express lines at the supermarket. What would happen by opening up all the cashiers at the same time (high VB numbers too soon) is that people in shorter lines with higher case numbers would get processed way before other people with lower case numbers in longer lines. So, this year, they are holding those express lines until all the longer lines have been mostly processed (or rather have had a chance to be processed). It’s actually fair, and it makes sense. So most case numbers under 20,000 where concentrated in front of those 5 cashiers, and that’s why the slow pace (to not open up the other cashiers), and that’s why there are so many visas issued so far, because I would say most of the visas from the Big 5 have been issued at this point (Uzbekistan and Ukraine, and probably Albania for sure), those visas issued would have been more spread out until the end of the process, but by doing it this way they have been alloted sooner than in previous years (probably by prioritizing DS260 provessing by number). Now, people might be worried that those countries “ate” too many visas and therefore there are less visas for the remaining countries left. Well, I’m not so sure. Again, I think they have just alloted them sooner. In the end, I don’t think we’ll see too many more visas go to Ukraine or Uzbekistan than in previous years. In fact, this year Uzbekistan seems to be getting less visas than usual! So, if this “cashier line theory” is correct, we can make some predictions. Basically, the main prediction is that starting in July, express lines will open up, all DS260 will have been processed, and there’ll be roughly the same amount of visas left as in previous “julys”. That means VB pace should hit the normal “4000” monthly increases (that you see in later months of the process), which is the “normal” express line pace. That could mean hitting EU32000. Even in this optimistic scenario, there is no denying that there’ll be A LOT of cases that won’t go current. This was an over-selected year. 2015 was also an over-selected year and it left out approximately 1500 real cases that didn’t get an interview. If the cut-off number for this year was EU32000, that would still leave around 3000 real cases without the coveted interview. No question over-selected years suck big time!
April 24, 2018 at 22:54
I’m sorry, but you are ignoring the data. We used to have two countries that would take the lions share of selectees (and to some extent, the issued visas. Now we have 5 countries. The distribution of selectees is wider than before – so that kind of kills your theory straight away, but there is certainly a profound difference in the distribution of cases compared to past years.
This year saw a change in how they process DS260s. In the past, early case numbers that submitted their DS260’s a couple of months late would be current, but not able to be interviewed as they were waiting for their DS260 to be processed. That meant that case numbers had to go faster in previous years to get enough cases where the DS260 was already processed. This year, that backlog effect hasn’t been there. Backlog cases being interviewed are genuinely late submissions. Because of that, more of the cases in early numbers were scheduled/interviewed/issued. We are now at 11500+ visas issued, and April is not over yet. We will probably see 12000 visas from the numbers up to April – 15950. So now we have to see what comes from May and June (meaning up to 20300) – but that could easily add another 3000 to 4000 visas. So – we will be at 15000 or 16000. Why would they need to turn on the “express lanes”?
April 25, 2018 at 06:44
If the amount of the visa is 19000-19500, it seems possible to access 30000 case number..
travel bans, nacara, and africa, I think the chance of Europe will rise with the low amount of approved africa visas.
April 25, 2018 at 10:55
What does Africa have to do with this. There’re still about 10k(w/o derivative) cases left for AF from 28300 upwards. It would be a dream to think they’ll reallocate AF’s visas to Eu. Here I am at 49xxx and not even sure to get an interview
April 25, 2018 at 13:41
AF will use it’s visas.
Travel ban doesn’t affect EU
NACARA is possible, but not certain.
And with all that said, there is only 3 months left… If they are going to shoot for NACARA visas, we should have seen a return to earlier pace.
April 25, 2018 at 07:42
Well, I think that because they made much fewer cases current in May and June (and April), there’ll also be a significant reduction in the number of visas issued. So, instead of the 3,000-4,000 you’re anticipating, I think it will probably be more like 2,000. That would mean around 4500 visas left by the end of June (which is usually the case). Also, if we look at the numbers from previous years, the Big 5 have always taken huge amount of visas (upwards of 1500) so I don’t think this year is particularly different. I just think that because they had so many more “candidadates” they were all concentrated under 20,000, and hopefully also capped under those numbers. Uzbekistan was obviously capped at 11,000 and probably Ukraine and Albania were capped right under 20,000 (as you can see by not many cases being ready or in transit after 19,000, which we can see already in the CEAC data). Also, the high refusal rates in AS will probably mean a lot of visas there won’t be issued and maybe (I know not necesserily) will be reallocated to EU. By the way Brit, just curious why you think the Uzbekistan number of issued visas is so unusually low thus far?
April 25, 2018 at 13:38
I had taken into account the lower interviews, but have accounted for the cases that will come from lower numbers interviewed earlier.
April 25, 2018 at 00:10
Hi Simon,
What would you say the chance for EU257xx is?
April 25, 2018 at 00:14
I would say “wait and see”.
April 25, 2018 at 05:45
The point we came up with is really bad then after 37K safe area. I am afraid, the only “safe” number is 20300. Anyone EU20180020301 is at risk and has to wait and see. Anyway, I hope and I believe that the cut-off will be more then 28K.
Regards.
EU22XXX
April 25, 2018 at 11:38
I strongly believe they will reach AF 45000 this year and the extra 5000 visa will be touch to fulfill some points next visa bulletin let everyone experience unimaginable Numbers because they will issue 52k visas this year that’s my prediction with my own look in my own style don’t ask me I won’t tell u how
April 25, 2018 at 15:12
I will not ask:))
it is just wishful thinking.
April 25, 2018 at 18:53
Good day brit,my mum’s date of birth is wrong on my birth certificate it shows that she was 11yrs when she gave birth to me,which is logically not possible, my question is what do I fill as date of birth of my mother
Do I feel the wrong data on my form as what’s in the birth certificate or
Do I put I don’t know since on the birth certificate It’s just written as 1979 as her date of birth without any month and day.thats my worry now brit,plz suggest a suitable answer
April 25, 2018 at 18:57
Put the correct date as far as you know it. You will not be asked for her birth cert as part of your DV process. ONLY if you ever sponsor her for a GC would you need to show her birth cert – and by that time you would have time to obtain accurate official documents.
April 25, 2018 at 19:09
She’s of late brit and I don’t know her date of birth apart from what is on my birth certificate since she died while I was still few months old ,i just use my common sense to calculate it and see that when she gave birth to me and her age is just 11 yrs different which might be wrong, do I say in the ds 260 that I don’t know or enter the ‘supposedly ” wrong data brit,sorry for persisting with the question,I’d just want to get your clarification
April 25, 2018 at 19:21
If she is deceased, this is NEVER going to be a problem. Stop overthinking this.
April 25, 2018 at 20:39
So brit do I enter her date of birth as it is in my birth certificate? ,thanks and I promise it’s the last question I ask on this topic,
April 25, 2018 at 21:51
You can decide. Honestly – no one else will notice.