So many people have asked me the same question – where are the predictions.
Well KCC have had a number of problems this month. First they sent out 2NL emails and somehow they messed up so that some people (many people in fact) received their email that said to check the ESC site and when they checked, their appointment letter was not there. That is now resolved – but it took over 1 week to get that fixed.
Just after the 2NLs are sent out the normal process is that the CEAC data is updated with the 2NLs. The cases which were sent the 2NLs are marked as being “in Transit”. That update is usually one large batch update – all the regions and all the cases. BUT not this month. A few days ago, KCC updated about 30 cases in Asia region to in TRansit, but no others. So – I have continued watching for that update but it has not happened – and THAT is why I have not released predictions.
Why is the in Transit update important? Well, as I have explained before it tells us three crucial things that I use in my predictions.
- The number of interviews scheduled in the month, per region.
- The latest response rate
- The number of interviews being used by “backlog” cases.
So – without those three things I cannot have such an accurate prediction and have to make some assumptions. However, I have done that for some of the regions and whilst I HOPE people will understand these are more guesstimates than predictions, I know that some will latch on to these as predictions and if I am wrong, the naysayers will simply revert to their mistaken belief that this process is mysterious and unknowable.
So – that said – here is what I GUESSTIMATE.
AF could be as low at 39000, but as high as 44000 (so 39XXX to 43XXX). If they go to the high end of that range it will show they have realized the no show issue. The no show issue is impacting the visas issued number for AF more than other regions – so I really hope KCC have noticed it and are doing something about it. Egypt will increase to something around 28500 to 29500 and that is where I expect it to end the year.
AS region should be 8000 to 9000 – again I hope to see the high end of that range. I believe Nepal will see the increase of its limit to around 7000, and in that case there could be another small increase for the September interviews since I think Nepal should hit the 7% limit at 7600 or less.
OC and SA region will both add around 100 case numbers (so OC will be 13XX and SA 12XX)
EU region is more problematic to guess. KCC went very low on the number last month. I think that was a pullback of the pace as we saw for May interviews – but because I have not seen the in Transit update I cannot confirm my assumption. So – I can see EU being anywhere from 37XXX to 39XXX. If that is the correct range I am thinking there will be some additional increase in the July VB also (September) – that is unlike last year where they finished EU VB progress in the 11th month.
So OK – again – I know no one is reading by now – but please understand these are guesstimates – not really predictions as such.
Good luck to everyone still waiting. We are now just a few weeks away from seeing that all important last VB.
June 3, 2015 at 01:28
I can see EU being anywhere from 37XXX to 39XXX – So what do you think about EU 40.000+, or 41.000+ ?
June 3, 2015 at 01:52
My comment was for August interviews and then I said there might be some increase in September. Let’s see August numbers first…
June 3, 2015 at 05:49
Sir do you mean those who have More than AF55xxxx dont have chance and they should look for plan B, pls clearfy my number is AF55xxxx
June 3, 2015 at 05:55
No – I have not said that AT ALL. At AF55XXX you have a good chance – but like the rest of us, you just need to wait and see….
June 3, 2015 at 02:13
So for high CNs, let’s say in the late 11xxxs range or the early 12xxxs………..does this VB matter at all? or do we have to wait until Iran’s done in Sept to truly know the final result rendering this next VB more or less meaningless for us.
June 3, 2015 at 02:16
Yes of course this VB matters. The embassies have a maximum capacity for interviews. The more they can get done in August the better so that September has capacity to fill the quota. Additionally the sooner Iran gets to where it is going the better we will be because KCC will make a better decision for the final VB.
June 3, 2015 at 02:18
wow that was quick………thank you for that.
so i am 12200…….how high would you say the next VB have to be for me to have a decent chance…….:P
June 3, 2015 at 02:26
8001 would be worse for you than 9000 or more….
June 3, 2015 at 09:58
Hi Simon. Do you think the embassy capacity is an issue for rest of Asia once Nepal and Iran are out. We know that they form the bulk of CNs in pre-9000 range. But as for RoA, shouldn’t the embassies be able to deal with 250 CNs per 1000? Also, my CN is 108xx, how high do you think the next cutoff should be to bode well for me? Thanks!
June 3, 2015 at 02:15
actually YOU make it very very clear , i cannot even try to ask any question , will done sir , you killed it!!!!!!!!! i hobe that i can find the chance my cn is 2015AS00011500
THANK YOU VERY MUCH MR BRITSIMON
June 3, 2015 at 02:20
EVEN IF I DID’T HANE CHANCE WITH THIS DV I’M GOING TO ACCEPT TO THE FACT AS IT’S BECAUSE OF U SIR AND THAK YOU AGAIN
June 3, 2015 at 02:17
Hello Simon,
If the system was updated with the 2NLs information, would you update your predictions?
Scared to death regarding my AF44xxx. Well, I’m trying to not ask if I’m safe or not.
I really appreciate your hard work.
Sincerely,
Sue
June 3, 2015 at 02:25
I have no idea why you are scared. If your number was 64 you could be scared, and maybe even 54 – but 44????
You will be current, either in August or in September. Be thankful of that and relax. There are 25,000 people who would LOVE to have your number!!!
June 3, 2015 at 02:18
What do you think the final OC cutoff will be? Thanks!
June 3, 2015 at 02:26
I hope to see 14XX
June 3, 2015 at 03:50
Hi brit
what you think for Africa what is the finely number ??
June 3, 2015 at 06:02
Let us get through this next VB before we jump ahead to the final.
June 3, 2015 at 04:03
hi sir… what do think for Asia finely number????????????????
June 3, 2015 at 06:02
Let us get through this next VB before we jump ahead to the final.
June 3, 2015 at 04:42
AS11xxx………. I’ve lost my hope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 3, 2015 at 04:52
please stop being so hysterical all the time………….u make others who visit the page for information paranoid as well with your negative energy………..u still have a chance, the man must’ve said it a million times lol
maybe you need to screenshot his replies and make it your computer background or something so you don’t forget lol
June 3, 2015 at 05:59
Quite.
June 3, 2015 at 04:42
Do you think that it is really a technical problem with the 2NLs or they are trying to update the VB of May (July interviews) and still need to figure out by which number to update.. there is something really weird here! it doesn’t feel like a technical issue that is taking that much time to get fixed!! has it happened before that after releasing a VB it gets updated in a later date?
June 3, 2015 at 05:13
very good points..just as I have been thinking about..
June 3, 2015 at 05:56
No. The 2NLs have gone out. People have them. The people who have their 2NLs are not updated in CEAC. This is a technical issue.
June 3, 2015 at 04:51
the way things are are going in africa region.. cases above AF50xxx should start looking for plan B
i never new winning lottery will give me such stress instead of happiness. thanks simon for the great work u have done in keeping our hearts together during this difficult time,, God bless u abundantly.
June 3, 2015 at 05:58
Don’t forget the final VB in particular can see a large jump – this is because KCC do not have to worry about future backlog, they don’t have to allow for AP cases created in September and so on. So – they can afford to have a bigger jump in September – and if you check previous years you will see that pattern.
June 3, 2015 at 05:19
I am crossing my fingers for EU425XX 🙂
June 3, 2015 at 05:55
Good luck!
June 3, 2015 at 13:34
Thank you Simon!!
June 3, 2015 at 06:17
50k/12=4.16k (issued in month)
here
~26k/8 month = 3.2k( issued in month)
there
24k/4 month =6k?????????
or current
June 3, 2015 at 06:24
Thanks for the predictions my brother,but I must confess there’s still butterflies in my stomach n am still so so scared.
.but that was good though
June 3, 2015 at 06:37
Eu372** i feel i can be current this month.
June 3, 2015 at 06:53
Yes I agree!
June 3, 2015 at 06:38
Thank you very much Mr. Simon.
June 3, 2015 at 06:39
Hi Simon,
For EU by 37XXX to 39XXX do you also mean from as low as 37000 to as high as 40000?
June 3, 2015 at 06:54
Yes.
June 3, 2015 at 08:49
By saying “If that is the correct range I am thinking there will be some additional increase in the July VB also (September)” do you mean that if the increase for EU in June VB (August) is higher than your predicted range then in September there might not be an additional increase, and if it is within your predicted range of 37000-40000 then there is a change for further increase?
June 3, 2015 at 06:43
hello Brit,
i am quite new here and i heard people talking about your services regarding the USA lottery visa process. i am here to thank you for your uncondtional support providing upon us. as the same time my case number is 2016AF285xx. what are your thoughts and predictions regarding my CN? is my case number 100% safe? can you pleae foresee the time for the interview? it might land between which months?
Regards !!!!
June 3, 2015 at 06:55
Yes, totally safe number unless you are from Egypt (which I doubt).
Probably interview around April – but we will know more nearer the time.
June 3, 2015 at 09:02
i am not from Egypt but i am from the Republic of CONGO with this Case Number 2016AF285xx. so ?
June 3, 2015 at 09:11
ouffffff Thank GOD. that i have a totally safe number!!!!!
June 3, 2015 at 07:06
I still have hope for SA16XX !! 🙂
It is so different this year from the preceding ones, maybe we’ll get a big surprise.
Who knows?
Thanks Brit for all you’re doing. We appreciate that very much.
Have a nice day.
June 3, 2015 at 07:16
Good luck!
June 3, 2015 at 07:11
Hi brit thank you for your work. For my part I think that the kcc will soar more that we think of it to reach the undistributed visas in AF, we shall have a good increase for August and September
June 3, 2015 at 07:17
I hope you are correct!
June 3, 2015 at 07:51
hi brit
thank you very much for this giga work
I think I will be the current month my CAS AF41516?.
simon nod.
June 3, 2015 at 07:58
Dear Brit,
if there any small possibility chance for 70XXX?
Kind regard.
June 3, 2015 at 08:53
Hi Brit,
If that is the correct range that you guess for EU, what do you think about final month? Can you guess it,or need to wait and see? My number is 441xx and I still believe in it 🙂 Crazy or not, I am optimistic! 🙂
June 3, 2015 at 09:40
Do you know about AOS cases from Nepal?
If Nepal hits 7% limit, what is the number from KDU embassy? (I mean 3500 or less)
Thanking you.
June 3, 2015 at 09:55
Simon, i have been looking at the past DV program. In your recent prediction about AF is 39xxx-40xxx which i agree 100 percent, but if that happens it mains that the final vb will not go up to AF65xxx. I can chellenge any prediction for that matter. It is clear that AF will not go current this 2015. If august could hit af49xxx to af51xxx then i sure af could reach af65xxx to af69xxx. So from your august prediction, i look at AF final vb to be less then af63xxx. Thank you
June 3, 2015 at 09:59
i have Af563XX NO chance? becouse you say : & I have no idea why you are scared. If your number was 64 you could be scared, and maybe even 54 – but 44????
You will be current, either in August or in September. Be thankful of that and relax. There are 25,000 people who would LOVE to have your number!!! & ???????????????
June 3, 2015 at 13:56
same here my case number is around 563xx i think we lost dream
June 3, 2015 at 14:03
Wait and see…
June 3, 2015 at 15:07
waiting killing us and we are more stressed now
June 3, 2015 at 14:33
are you from morocco?
if yes let me know
June 3, 2015 at 15:26
yes iam from morocco
June 3, 2015 at 17:38
add me on facebook
https://www.facebook.com/redouan.fadili
June 3, 2015 at 14:58
can i have your facbook meriem
June 3, 2015 at 15:06
give me urs i will add u
June 3, 2015 at 18:13
aziz saouir
June 3, 2015 at 23:20
Meriem give me your mail ok
June 3, 2015 at 12:04
Hello Simon,
I’m from IRAN with case number 2015AS8XXX. I hope current on next bulletin. If issuance AP for my case i dont know clear before 30 Sep or no …
I worry, whatever i hope the future.
Now, Sir,I ask you about this process and clearance for Iranian case, What do you think about clearance AP for iranian upper case ?
With Best Regards
AliReza.Sh
June 3, 2015 at 15:19
If you get the “normal” Iranian AP in September you cannot be cleared in time – so hope you don’t get put on AP!
June 3, 2015 at 19:55
Iran AP appears to be going very slowly, Unfortunately.
I hope to repeat it again the year before.
Grateful Brit …
June 3, 2015 at 12:51
Hi Simon
My number is AF2015 71XXX. I really don’t want to give up hope and think that maybe in September the VB could jump to reach those high CN to use up all of AF allocation?
Am I wasting my time?
June 3, 2015 at 15:16
It doesn’t matter what I or anyone else thinks. You are going to have to wait and see it with your own eyes….
June 3, 2015 at 14:17
Thank you Mr;Simon.
1 – Concerning ASIA , were your ‘guesstimate’ more optimisst or pessimist this time 😀 ?! in other words can we expect (hope) more than 9000 in the next VB .
2 – if the next VB shows around 9000 .. what would you think of this CN -> AS109xx ?!
Thank you again ,such a helpfull blog.
June 3, 2015 at 15:11
1. I would be surprised if the number is in the low 8000 range – and not THAT surprised if it were early 9000 range.
2. Whilst VB movement helps avoid a capacity issue – the difference between even 8000 and 10900 is not that many (No Nepal and Iran max at 8200). So – capacity is not an issue – the issue is where the final cut off needs to be based on how many visas they think Iran will take. My guess is 109XX has a good chance.
June 3, 2015 at 17:05
Hi Sir,
Hope that you are doing great. Please, can we know how many visas is left for Africa ? Even for others regions, it can help others.. 😉
June 3, 2015 at 17:42
right now there are over 10,000 visas left for Africa – with 4 months of processing left.
June 3, 2015 at 17:11
Hello! I am 2016AF12***, when is your guestimate for my interview? I would imagine mid Nov to end Nov? Which is exactly when we will be out of the country. Of one had to ask for a date change what are the repercussions? End of the queue? Thank you!!!
June 3, 2015 at 17:42
It could be November or December. It is VERY unwise to try and reschedule – so you would be better to unlock your DS260 between now and August, and then resubmit it in late September. That will stop them scheduling your interview in November, and push the interview to December or January – much safer approach.
June 3, 2015 at 17:13
Hi mr Britsimon? Thank you for the great job that you are doing. From what i have read so far, AF51000 is save. MY CN is AF5281*. Do you think i am save or i have a good chance. Secondly, if the next vb falls at 40k or plus, can i be certain to go current by September? Thanks in advance.
June 3, 2015 at 17:38
Yes I think you are “safe” – although the next VB will obviously be important to see a number in the 40-44 range. The program for DV2015 ends in SEptember so it is September or nothing.
June 3, 2015 at 17:44
“Wait and see”
Britsimon wisdom lol
June 3, 2015 at 17:48
Exactly.
Predictions are all well and good, but at the end of the day everyone still has to see the official VB – and that means waiting,…
“wait and see”
June 3, 2015 at 18:19
Thanks Brit. Fingers crossed and hoping for a reasonable increase in the next vb
June 3, 2015 at 19:06
Hi Simon,
Just inquiring that how many DV visas are left for the European region for the remaining period?
June 3, 2015 at 21:02
right now over 8000…
June 3, 2015 at 20:24
Hey Simon!
I’ve got a 2016AF41XXX do you think i will be current by august or before? My son is turning 21 next january so he can’t get the visa eventhough i get current in September, thnak you!
June 3, 2015 at 20:58
OK – so you have two questions – when will you be current and what will happen about your son.
So – part 1. You will most likely be current around July or August of 2016.
Part 2. Your son will have become 21 by the time you are current. However, if you read my article below he will still be entitled to derivative status up to August, and possibly even September. That depends on his birthdate in January. If his birthdate is January 28 or earlier he will be OK up to August. If however his birthday is 29/30/31 of January he will also be eligible right into the end of September.
REad the article below carefully and you WILL need to attend your interview with some documentation printed out showing why your son is eligible (because the COs might not understand how the CSPA applies to DV cases).
https://britsimonsays.com/child-turn-21-can-heshe-get-visa/
June 3, 2015 at 21:35
I understand, his birthday is 21st January, i just hope 2016 VBs won’t be as rude as 2015 ones.
June 3, 2015 at 20:34
Hey Brit,
Finally everything worked within expectations and i finally relocated. it is 2 weeks now since i arrived, and am about looking for a job because i just received my SSN. thanks so much for the kind support and enlightenment from you. I pray for the positive so that one could appreciate your free works in a better way someday soon.
I have a friend who won the 2015 lottery with me, he is out of network and cannot access the internet so often. He is now so much in doubts if his 2NL shall ever come. His No. is 2015AF65xxx. With the boldness i gathered from my case after you guided me the best way you could, I keep advising him to stay calm, but as of now, looking at the pace the numbers are now coming. I wish you could hint if somehow, his 2NL may come. he won as couple.
June 3, 2015 at 20:42
Welcome to the USA!!
For your friend, yes he should remain calm and watch the last two VBs – but his number is at risk.
June 3, 2015 at 21:52
malheuresement j’ai pas de chance
June 3, 2015 at 21:55
Sorry for the silly question but how do you calculate the number of yearly DV visas available for each region? Thanks
June 3, 2015 at 23:34
https://britsimonsays.com/the-regional-quota-mystery-solved/
June 3, 2015 at 22:26
so 48XXX will be in septembre ?
June 3, 2015 at 23:34
Yes – that is my belief.
June 4, 2015 at 02:27
Hi brit
could you predict how many visa are remaning for nepal.
June 4, 2015 at 05:16
Less than 1000
June 4, 2015 at 09:08
Hi,Britsimon you said there 10,000 visas left for Africa.how many case number are undre the remaining visa?at which case number di they end at?
June 5, 2015 at 04:59
There are around 40,000 people for those 10,000 visas.
June 4, 2015 at 10:28
Less than 1000 means After Releasing visa upto CN 6475 or before this cn.may I get chance 696*
June 4, 2015 at 16:54
hi Simon,
I can see in transit already. when you plan to extract new CEAC please?
June 4, 2015 at 18:12
I am extracting now – but I don’t believe all updates are there yet.
June 4, 2015 at 18:17
does it mean you will not share it if you make sure it is not complete?
June 4, 2015 at 20:03
I have also extracted the data myself for EU and I have 1056 cases in Transit, what makes kind of sense to achieve the 2000ish visas per month.
I also see a substancial reduction in AP Cases since your last extracted data (500 cases less) what also makes sense, because we had 1500ish visas issued in May…
The cases At NVC have been reduced by 1k more or less…
Anyway, looking forward to your extract and your thoughts!
June 4, 2015 at 20:36
not much informative for me. the most important figures are in transit from old cases and new cases (which will allow computing response rates), as well as total number of visas issued as of today..
I can’t see them in your provided info.
June 4, 2015 at 20:43
Total Visas Issued as of today for EU: 11385
I can send you the file if you give me your email and are interested!
June 4, 2015 at 20:47
Sorry, i forgot a part of your question, 817 In transit cases between EU1 and EU34124 (October and June Bulletins)
June 4, 2015 at 21:10
thank you for info. let us wait for Simon’s post.
June 5, 2015 at 05:08
I haven’t looked at the data yet. AP numbers rise and fall during the month. NVC would reduce as around 1000 have become in Transit.
June 5, 2015 at 05:11
Do you have anything for Asia?
June 4, 2015 at 19:43
Dear simon
Should I give up now or I have to wait ? CN 7848 from Nepal.. What you think….. Is there any chance to get 2nd NL….tq
June 5, 2015 at 05:03
Simon, will you publish the new CEAC today (your time)?
looking forward to it..
June 5, 2015 at 05:06
Tomorrow I imagine. I got the data today but haven’t looked at it
June 5, 2015 at 05:12
maybe you can publish without predictions and then will post predictions separately?)
June 5, 2015 at 07:23
https://britsimonsays.com/ceac-data-june-6-2015/
June 5, 2015 at 08:00
thanks a lot!
June 5, 2015 at 13:50
My case number is 3902* ..probably 8?
June 5, 2015 at 13:51
AF 3902*
June 6, 2015 at 05:42
hi Brit.
for the 2016 DV lottery in my country which is the Republic of CONGO there has been only 122 selectees. considering this effective of selectees will that play in favor of selectees by any means? because in other countries the number of selectees is higher than 4000. and considering the fact that the USA government does not exceed providing more than 7% of 55000 visas in every eligible country. is there any advantage of those countries that got low number of selectees?
June 6, 2015 at 21:08
No advantage at all.
June 6, 2015 at 09:35
Hi MrBrit i wanna ask you how about this cn AF51,8XX. Safe Or No.?
June 6, 2015 at 20:07
Probably safe if that is a DV2015 number
June 6, 2015 at 10:29
all those below AF 70000 SHOULD NOT BE SCARE THEY LL ALL BE SCHEDULE FOR AN INTERVIEW GOD IS IN CONTROL
June 6, 2015 at 16:12
Unfortunately not…