OK – in the last few posts I have explained some key concepts that can be used to predict the final cutoffs. I explained the density rate, the derivative growth rate , the response rate and I am about to explain the success rate. I will then show some basic calculations and talk about the regional quotas. I have made the explanations step by step – so feel free to add your own thoughts and come up with your own analysis.
My intention is to educate and inform selectees. I am not trying to make people happy or make people sad – and I must stress that these predictions are informed guesses. There is no way to be 100% certain about some of these things – remember I am trying to anticipate the actions of 90,000+ people, and many factors could cause the numbers to change. So – please be adult enough to understand that thing could change.
OK – that being said, I took the final CEAC data file from last year and too out the non responses. From the remaining cases I totaled the issued numbers, and compared them to the total family rate for those cases.
I then used that percentage against the theoretical selectee count for each region, assuming the derivative rates I wrote about earlier, and the response rate (based on 2015).
Once I do that – I am left with a number of visas needed per region. That number might be above, or below the regional quotas.
To understand the chart above, you will have to have read my posts linked at the top of this page.
The issued rates take into account the refusals, unresolved AP, no shows and so on. As I mentioned before, calculations at regional level are not as accurate as working on country level, but to illustrate a point, this is good enough for now.
So – what does this mean?
Well we know that there are around 50,000 visas available, but those visas are allocated at a regional level.
Looking at the numbers above we can say the following.
Europe and Oceania will go current. There are going to be visas wasted from those two regions.
Africa may have a cutoff, probably above 50,000. There is a small chance that Africa could go current – but that would rely on efficiency from KCC and a disregard for No shows. They did not do that last year – instead they chose to underfill the region. So – I suspect they will do the same in DV2016. We could set the risky range as anything about 47000. Below that number should be safe, above that number has to “wait and see”. Hopefully we will be able to see a number well into the 50’s.
South America is on the cusp of needing a cutoff. It’s quite close so it would be near the highest number – hopefully it can go current.
Asia cannot go current within the normal quota. There will be a final cutoff – probably similar to the number from last year. So – I consider the “risky range ” to be from around 7000 to 8500. Above 8500/9000 chances will be very very small. As usual, Iranian AP cases could be key to the final number, so we will see more about Iranian AP in time. Nepal will probably be the only country with a limit in place at the end of the year – probably in the 6600 to 7000 range.
Possible re-allocation of quotas
OK – this is an area that I am a little uncertain of – so we have to be careful on relying on this information. However, there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for AS, AF and SA regions.
As I mentioned in this post if my assumptions are correct, AS region, perhaps SA and AF regions could run out of visas within their regional quotas. These quotas are defined by rules of the lottery and to a specific formula which takes into account normal (non DV) immigration numbers, population and so on. The intent of the lottery is to provide diversity – so the formula gives a high allocation of quota to “low admission” regions (AF, EU and OC) and a lower allocation to “high admission” regions (AS and SA).
Now, for some reason, the lottery has chosen far too few selectees in EU and OC regions – which as I have pointed out would end up “wasting” several thousand visas. There is some wording in the quota formula (INA 203(c)) that allows for redistribution of unused visas from one region to other regions. Perhaps this is why the EU region selectee count was so low – which in turn has led to a very fast progression in EU VB progress.
So – once KCC determine that all (or nearly all) EU visas have been claimed, they might allow AF, SA, and AS regions to use the unused visas. If that happens we would see SA & AF go current and possibly AS region also. So again – its too early to be sure – we need to wait and see….
Now, let me finish by saying again. These are best guesses at the moment. I may change or refine the ranges later – and I could be totally wrong. There are 8 full months of the DV year left – a lot can happen in that time.
January 8, 2016 at 19:30
brits , can you please help me wit what a SPONSORSHIP LETTER SHOULD ENTAIL.also when should a current case number who submitted form in October expect an interview. Thank you
January 8, 2016 at 19:54
The timing would depend on the DS260 submission date AND the case number.
January 9, 2016 at 15:55
right thanks Britt, on my question, the case number is AF856* and DSO was submitted 9th October..when shd interview be expected please… thanks a lot for the feedback on the affidavit.. standing by for your response..
January 9, 2016 at 16:20
Maybe March, but more likely April.
January 8, 2016 at 19:34
Visa bulletin is published for March interviews.
January 8, 2016 at 19:53
January 8, 2016 at 19:41
January 8, 2016 at 19:53
January 12, 2016 at 16:47
I hope you are well. Thanks for the job you are doing, and be blessed.
I filled and submitted my DS260 form immediately I received the results in May last year. My CN is AF34xxx. Was it too early to submit the DS260 form then? Is there a problem with that?
Secondly, is my number (AF34xxx) safe? and in which month should I expect an interview?
I will appreciate your answers. Thank you
January 12, 2016 at 18:23
No problem. INterview around June/July maybe – we will see…
January 12, 2016 at 18:31
Thank you for the prompt response.
January 12, 2016 at 21:27
Just want to clarify, because on the table on AS it is 9400 range. However basically based on your prediction, number 2016AS000091** has very small chance to be called for interview right?
January 12, 2016 at 21:37
THe 9400 number is how many visas would be required – and there are not that many available. So that means there will be a cutoff. 2016AS91XX has only a small chance – the main hope being visas being re-allocated from EU/OC region. As ever – best thing is to wait and see….
January 12, 2016 at 23:40
gotcha! thanks for the response
January 12, 2016 at 22:04
I submitted my DS260 in July last year. My CN is EU22xxx.
Secondly, is my number safe? and in which month should I expect an interview?
Thank you for your time!
January 12, 2016 at 22:21
Of course your number is safe – April or May interview.
January 12, 2016 at 22:29
Thanks!!! Could you tell me when i expect receive an email for interview???
January 12, 2016 at 22:36
Could you tell me when i expect receive(when will I receive) an email for interview and which case numbers have already received an email for interview????
January 13, 2016 at 01:49
About 6 / 7 weeks before your interview.
For case numbers – read the visa bulletin.
January 13, 2016 at 23:01
Hi, my case number is 2016AS113xx. I think its highly unlikely I will get it right? Number is too high.
January 13, 2016 at 23:55
Unless something very different happens this year – that number is probably too high. However, there might be a surprise in store…
January 14, 2016 at 16:40
Hello once again! What is the total amount of money to be paid at the consulate during the interview and the money for green card paid on arrival at US soil? the total amount for these services (consulate and port of entry)? Thank you
January 17, 2016 at 12:40
Hi Briti, what does it mean limited for Ethiopian?is no chance to get visa for Ethiooian? if not what is the next cn at March& April?I am confused p/c help me
January 17, 2016 at 16:05
Ethioppia is at the same number as Africa. Don’t worry ALL Ethiopian cases will be current.
January 20, 2016 at 15:31
Hi Brit, mine is Af000049##. If I am to be current when would it be? Thanks.
January 20, 2016 at 18:10
You are already current.
January 20, 2016 at 18:53
HI BRIT WHY THIS YEAR ETHIOPIA AND EGYPTE ARE NOT LIMTED !!IS THERE ANY IMPACT
January 20, 2016 at 19:11
There was no need to limit their processing speed. It is a good thing for Egypt and Ethiopia.
January 20, 2016 at 20:37
Hello Simon will all EU numbers will be current?
January 20, 2016 at 20:38
I mean all EU cases which have been selected will have an interview?
January 20, 2016 at 20:57
January 20, 2016 at 23:41
Thank you very much Simon, I appreciate your help!
February 29, 2016 at 18:39
With the Pace and Quota for Asia can we consider 9000-10000 a safe number
February 29, 2016 at 21:05
No. Once Nepal and Iran are exhausted the pace can go faster BUT last year the highest number was 7650, so we cannot assume 9000 to 10000 is “safe” – we simply have to wait and see.
March 7, 2016 at 17:15
my CN is 485*** you think that it a safe CN and i will be called thank you
March 7, 2016 at 17:28
That number is quite high, so I can’tay “safe” but it must have a good chance.
Interview probably September, maybe August.
August 8, 2016 at 23:07
The VB for the October interview for 2017 is out.What do you think of the current numbers? Since the number of selected winners this year is low, do you think that would push the CN that will be current further down the months along this year? What percentage of people get approved from a given region ? Or is it just the 7% from a country that needs to be taken into account.
August 9, 2016 at 02:21
The numbers are fine. There is no shortage of visas this year because they selected a small number of people – no need to stress about regional or country limits.
August 9, 2016 at 03:58
I am from Nepal and I see that there are 200 more winners from my country than last year wih a total of 4000 winners. My case number is AS55xx. As you said there is no need to stress, but should I be concerned that the number of selectees in my country might fill up the 3500 Visas allocated to Nepal before my number becomes current ?
August 9, 2016 at 15:07
I already answered you.