OK – in the last few posts I have explained some key concepts that can be used to predict the final cutoffs. I explained the density rate, the derivative growth rate , the response rate and I am about to explain the success rate. I will then show some basic calculations and talk about the regional quotas. I have made the explanations step by step – so feel free to add your own thoughts and come up with your own analysis.
My intention is to educate and inform selectees. I am not trying to make people happy or make people sad – and I must stress that these predictions are informed guesses. There is no way to be 100% certain about some of these things – remember I am trying to anticipate the actions of 90,000+ people, and many factors could cause the numbers to change. So – please be adult enough to understand that thing could change.
OK – that being said, I took the final CEAC data file from last year and too out the non responses. From the remaining cases I totaled the issued numbers, and compared them to the total family rate for those cases.
I then used that percentage against the theoretical selectee count for each region, assuming the derivative rates I wrote about earlier, and the response rate (based on 2015).
Once I do that – I am left with a number of visas needed per region. That number might be above, or below the regional quotas.
To understand the chart above, you will have to have read my posts linked at the top of this page.
The issued rates take into account the refusals, unresolved AP, no shows and so on. As I mentioned before, calculations at regional level are not as accurate as working on country level, but to illustrate a point, this is good enough for now.
So – what does this mean?
Well we know that there are around 50,000 visas available, but those visas are allocated at a regional level.
Looking at the numbers above we can say the following.
Europe and Oceania will go current. There are going to be visas wasted from those two regions.
Africa may have a cutoff, probably above 50,000. There is a small chance that Africa could go current – but that would rely on efficiency from KCC and a disregard for No shows. They did not do that last year – instead they chose to underfill the region. So – I suspect they will do the same in DV2016. We could set the risky range as anything about 47000. Below that number should be safe, above that number has to “wait and see”. Hopefully we will be able to see a number well into the 50’s.
South America is on the cusp of needing a cutoff. It’s quite close so it would be near the highest number – hopefully it can go current.
Asia cannot go current within the normal quota. There will be a final cutoff – probably similar to the number from last year. So – I consider the “risky range ” to be from around 7000 to 8500. Above 8500/9000 chances will be very very small. As usual, Iranian AP cases could be key to the final number, so we will see more about Iranian AP in time. Nepal will probably be the only country with a limit in place at the end of the year – probably in the 6600 to 7000 range.
Possible re-allocation of quotas
OK – this is an area that I am a little uncertain of – so we have to be careful on relying on this information. However, there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for AS, AF and SA regions.
As I mentioned in this post if my assumptions are correct, AS region, perhaps SA and AF regions could run out of visas within their regional quotas. These quotas are defined by rules of the lottery and to a specific formula which takes into account normal (non DV) immigration numbers, population and so on. The intent of the lottery is to provide diversity – so the formula gives a high allocation of quota to “low admission” regions (AF, EU and OC) and a lower allocation to “high admission” regions (AS and SA).
Now, for some reason, the lottery has chosen far too few selectees in EU and OC regions – which as I have pointed out would end up “wasting” several thousand visas. There is some wording in the quota formula (INA 203(c)) that allows for redistribution of unused visas from one region to other regions. Perhaps this is why the EU region selectee count was so low – which in turn has led to a very fast progression in EU VB progress.
So – once KCC determine that all (or nearly all) EU visas have been claimed, they might allow AF, SA, and AS regions to use the unused visas. If that happens we would see SA & AF go current and possibly AS region also. So again – its too early to be sure – we need to wait and see….
Now, let me finish by saying again. These are best guesses at the moment. I may change or refine the ranges later – and I could be totally wrong. There are 8 full months of the DV year left – a lot can happen in that time.
January 4, 2016 at 02:44
Hi Simon, Thank you for your great blog. We have SA11xx, it is a risk in order to get the Interview or Visa ?
January 4, 2016 at 03:16
That should be fine.
January 4, 2016 at 03:20
My case no 681x from nepal it means i am in border . So i am neither happy nor sad.
January 4, 2016 at 03:26
Exactly – you just have to wait and see…
January 4, 2016 at 03:44
What happened with Asians, so sad… just left to wait and see with cross finger … please go current 🙂
January 4, 2016 at 04:15
Hi Brit, thanks for your great work. My only hope is that KCC will not repeat the same mistake for Asia last year again, that is if they consider failing to fulfil the regional quota for DV program a mistake at all.
January 4, 2016 at 05:35
No, they don’t consider that a mistake. So – fingers crossed….
January 4, 2016 at 04:29
Dear Simon thanks a lot for your effort based in your analysis it means my case number AF 49### in the risk zone and probably will not be called , the lottery like poker 50% to win and 50% to lose so its based on luck.
January 4, 2016 at 05:34
It is in the risk zone yes, and it is based on luck, yes (it IS a lottery), but it is too soon to lose hope. Best of luck to you!
January 4, 2016 at 06:18
Dear BritSimon
what about the NO. AF000023XXX?
January 4, 2016 at 15:10
Read the article.
January 4, 2016 at 08:09
dear mr simon do you think Ethiopian will go current this year ?
January 4, 2016 at 15:08
Yes.
January 4, 2016 at 09:07
Thank you! That gives me hope
Anyway, in my ds-260 i put high school diploma but i’ll probably graduate college by the time my interview gets scheduled!
Should i do anything or just bring both “college diploma” and high school diploma to the interview in case they ask for it instead of the high school diploma
January 4, 2016 at 15:07
No – you just take what you have by then – all of it.
January 4, 2016 at 10:51
Thanks a lot Dear Simon for this push of hope,And i will wait for sure thanks again for this extraordinary work
January 4, 2016 at 13:00
I m from nepal my case number is 6642 do i have chance to get second letter
January 4, 2016 at 14:50
Did you read the article – that is covered there!
January 16, 2016 at 22:31
Hi sir,if ur case number is in 26000 when will u be dated for interview.
January 16, 2016 at 23:46
May/June
January 4, 2016 at 14:18
Thank you dear brit.so can you please tell me when i will have an interview plz af32###
January 4, 2016 at 15:17
Hi Simon,
Taking your analysis and my CN into account, AF46xxx, when would you say is the best time to submit the DS260 form?
Many thanks.
January 4, 2016 at 15:22
In the next month or two.
January 4, 2016 at 17:37
Thanks Simon, again appreciate your efforts here.
If any details change after submitting, for example moving country, marital status etc. I can ask the KCC to unlock it right?
Also, this might sound like a strange question but, given a choice of embassy to have the interview at, for example in London, South-Africa or even elsewhere in Europe (not sure where I will be if called for interview), is there an advantage of going to one embassy over the other, perhaps London being more efficient and thus processing it quicker, thereby maximising my chances? Or does it not really make a difference?
January 4, 2016 at 18:06
Yes you can unlock and update your DS260 if needed, up until the point they schedule your interview.
You can’t just choose to interview wherever you like – it is chosen for you based on your address. However, generally speaking, selectees are better off at their home embassy, where their education is understood, documents don’t need translating and so on.
January 4, 2016 at 18:56
Thank you.
All I can hope for now is to wait and see if I get an interview and we will see from there. If so I might be in touch with a question or two! 🙂 Keep up the good work.
January 4, 2016 at 16:17
Hi Brit,
An agent submitted my data for DV-2016 in October 2014 and informed me recently I have won. They want me to pay them $10000 form my CN.
Looking at https://ceac.state.gov/IV/Login.aspx I see that if I check my date of birth versus all winning CNs, I can find out my CN.
I know you are using a script to retrieve all wins. Can you do a similar script that would tell me my CN by my date of birth?
Yours Bart
January 4, 2016 at 16:23
No I do not have a script like that. You will have to spend a few days doing it manually.
Be warned though, the agent might have made some mistake that could result in disqualification anyway – so don’t pay the $10000 and realize that there is a chance of refusal anyway – even if you find the case number yourself.
Never work through an agent!
January 6, 2016 at 13:10
$10, 000 for your CN. This is just unbelievable.
January 6, 2016 at 15:37
But sadly, quite common – and often results in denial anyway.
January 4, 2016 at 18:46
sir, now ceac data has reveled…can u estimate, by how much nepal will progress in upcoming VB?
January 4, 2016 at 19:23
About 500 increase perhaps – just as a rough guess.
January 4, 2016 at 19:23
i’m in the wait and see cases unfortunately , AF49*** . what kind of factors that could happen to change those estimates ? thx for the analyses Mr.Simon .
January 4, 2016 at 19:34
Lower or higher response rate, lower or higher success rate, lower or higher derivative growth, an increase in quota for AF (from unused EU visas). In short – a lot can happen – hence the range of uncertainty that you are in…
January 4, 2016 at 20:43
Hi britsimonnsays
Do you think that Egypt will become limited again like Ethiopia or will be the same like Africa for the next visa bulletin?
January 4, 2016 at 21:31
I don’t know. It doesn’t really matter though – there is plenty of time and all Egyptians will be current.
January 12, 2016 at 08:33
Hello Simon,
I have seen in some of your comments reply where you mention all Egyptians and Ethiopians will become current. Is it because they all have lower case numbers within your predicted safe range of < 47000? I thought some of the had CNs above 50 thousand. Like us in different countries.
January 12, 2016 at 18:44
THey will all have lower numbers because they were limited during the draw.
January 5, 2016 at 03:49
Dear brit what is the range of last case no of nepal . My case no is 67xx can i hope for second latter.
January 5, 2016 at 03:58
I commented on that above!
January 5, 2016 at 06:02
hey simon i hv my high school degree, i abandoned my degree in my 2nd year because i figured its not wat i wanted to do yet i put that am at the university on my d260 i dont have my university id any more cause it was taken by the university when i terminated wat should i do wen they co asks for my proof that am a student i still have my university admin letter though
January 5, 2016 at 07:19
Just explain the truth.
January 5, 2016 at 08:04
Am afraid that it may cause problems sir
January 5, 2016 at 19:36
Lying will create more problems.
January 5, 2016 at 06:16
Happy New Year Simon and your beloved family. You mentioned the possible redistribution of unused visas from one region to another. Has this been done before? Muchas gracias
January 5, 2016 at 07:18
Its hard to be sure. They don’t “announce” they are doing that but there have been years where a region has exceeded the perceived quota (like Asia in 2013).
January 5, 2016 at 07:57
If they use unused visas for one region from one, Asia might have a chance to go current or cut off will be higher than prediction that you are above ?
January 5, 2016 at 19:37
Possibly, yes – that is what I said above.
January 5, 2016 at 11:04
Great to see you are back in the new year too. It looks there will be some unused visa in case of EU and OC. Why don’t they make a second draw instead of re-allocating the region quotas? Imho, that would be a fairer option.
January 5, 2016 at 18:04
They could do that, but I think it is already late to do so…
January 5, 2016 at 12:24
My case number is AF9704,do I ve a chance?
January 5, 2016 at 15:32
You are ALREADY current.
January 7, 2016 at 13:51
Thanks Brit,pls you said am already current, wat does it mean?I beg you
January 7, 2016 at 14:34
Cases are processed in case number order. Each month they publish the number range that is current meaning numbers that are current can get an interview.
January 7, 2016 at 15:10
Thank you sir,am grateful
January 7, 2016 at 15:46
Sir,please last one don’t get pissed,how soon shd I expect the second letter?this month or next month?Thank you Sir.
January 7, 2016 at 15:48
I sent it in December 17
January 7, 2016 at 16:18
Then that might delay you a bit – wait and see.
January 5, 2016 at 14:07
hi sir, now ceac data has reveled…can u estimate, by how much AFRICA will progress in upcoming VB? thank you
January 5, 2016 at 17:55
I don’t know – I may not have time to estimate.
January 5, 2016 at 14:19
Dear KCC,
Pretty please disregard no-shows. Kind regards, AF51xxx.
🙂
January 5, 2016 at 17:47
Hi brit.
When do we expect next visa bulletin and 2nl for march interview
January 5, 2016 at 17:49
Late this week or early next week. It is always “about” the 10th.
January 5, 2016 at 19:59
Thanks Brit. Was able to create a script an ran it. Yes, I really won. Sometimes those agents are really useful. At least they submitted my application and told me I won. And I was able to figure out my winning number without their help. That is symbiosis.
January 6, 2016 at 00:34
Well it is sort of symbiosis – unless the agent input information that will get you disqualified anyway….
January 6, 2016 at 05:40
Hi Bart. Would you please help me and show me how to do it ? Because I was having same story like you and they need me 7000$ . I am not yet making decision with agent . What can I do ? I hope you have kind heart like Mr Brit that help lot of people .god bless you .
January 6, 2016 at 05:58
Hi,
2016AS75XX , already completed DS 260 on August.
The Lebanese Government wants to withdraw all hand written renewed passports starting on 10 Jan 2015. So i have to renew my passport. Can i unlock DS 260? and is there a dead line for unlocking DS-260? please advise.
January 6, 2016 at 06:20
You won’t be current for some time – so yes – go ahead and unlock.
January 6, 2016 at 07:21
Mr. Brit, when i checked CEAC with my case #, it shows ‘AT NVC’ and text below directs me on another page. i dont know if it is important or not. i know it is because am not current that is why it shows NVC. but concerning the infos under, what should i do next? cn Af20***
January 6, 2016 at 07:25
Ignore the text.
January 6, 2016 at 10:07
Hi super moderator, as there are about 93000 selected,it means amost half of the selected will not have visas.so when you talk of africa cut off up to 47000,i don’t know from where the losers will come.bcos just the people selected in africa are almost the 50 000 thousand required.So is there something i dont understand?
Am just worried.af441**God bless you
January 6, 2016 at 16:01
Yes, you have clearly not read the other articles linked from the one above. That explains everything.
January 6, 2016 at 12:02
Mr Brit thanks lot for u help.What do u think cn 2016EU240xx is it save ?
January 6, 2016 at 15:41
Did you read above? I said all EU would be current – so of course it is safe.
January 6, 2016 at 12:35
My question is: I’m a citizen of the Republic of Tajikistan and I’m a DV 2016 winner, on 23rd of February, we have an invitation to an interview in Almaty, Kazakhstan. As I am a citizen of Tajikistan, I do not need a visa to Kazakhstan, but the problem is that my husband is a citizen of Afghanistan, it is necessary to obtain a visa for him to enter to Kazakhstan for interview, but the Embassy of Kazakhstan require an invitation from Kazakhstan, we don’t have anyone there to send us an invitation. We have shown in the Embassy of Kazakhstan the invitation for an interview that we have from KCC, but they refused to accept this invitation.
What do you think, what we have to do and what do you advice for us?
Thank you in advance.
January 6, 2016 at 15:41
I have no idea about your government rules. You may be able to have your husband attend an interview in another country, but that is risky. Contact the US embassy and discuss with them.
January 6, 2016 at 13:42
Hi SIMONS am Dv 2016 AF 37xxx am i safe looking at the slow visa bulletin for febuary of 17200
January 6, 2016 at 15:37
Yes – as explained in the article above!
January 6, 2016 at 16:32
hey simon how the new year, my question is i need to change my sponsor which is written in ds 260, so should i have to tell the co this situation?
January 6, 2016 at 18:29
Just discuss it with the CO.
January 6, 2016 at 16:36
oh am from Ethiopia and i have interview on Monday(11 Jan)
January 7, 2016 at 14:53
Best wishes….and eager to hear the succss on Tuesday
January 6, 2016 at 17:43
I mean 100 times less, not 100 less, that was a typo.
January 6, 2016 at 18:26
hi Brit pls will Accra embassy in Ghana accept certified copy of high school diploma in addition to school transcript and testimonial if the original certificate has not yet been released to the various schools by the examining body?
January 6, 2016 at 18:29
Bart,
I am extremely uncomfortable with this offer. I am sure you mean to be helpful – and if so – just publish the script. Other than that – I am going to delete this post.
January 6, 2016 at 18:35
Hi David,
How could I contact you regarding your question?
Bart
January 7, 2016 at 00:46
Hi Brit,
Is that you who engaged DDoS attack on ceac.state.gov site in order to destroy my ability to restore CNs? Then you will not be able to run your bymonthly files, https://ceac.state.gov/ceacstattracker/status.aspx is also under attack
Bart
January 7, 2016 at 03:30
Of course not – stop being so paranoid and ridiculous. Why on earth would I be interested in doing such a thing. Please think before you make silly accusations.
January 7, 2016 at 02:00
Hy brit . Is there any chance of being current for nepal this year?
January 7, 2016 at 03:28
No, I think 3801 is still too many selectees to go current – considering response, derivative growth and success rate.
January 7, 2016 at 05:56
But in 2013 there are more than 4300 selectees but also it was current whats the reason behind it? Plz can u explain it
January 7, 2016 at 07:02
The various factors driving the calculation have changed – more derivatives, more responses, more successes.
January 7, 2016 at 10:59
what’s ur case number tulsi?
January 7, 2016 at 11:39
67xx and ur
January 8, 2016 at 14:00
my 38** … i wish u may got chance for interview..where r u from?
January 7, 2016 at 13:48
When we I expect 2NL with CN 200XX. Thanks
January 7, 2016 at 14:36
That number could be EU or AF, but either way I expect that to be current for interviews in March. That assumes you sent in your DS260 before September.
January 7, 2016 at 16:11
Hi Simon I am always following you. Thanks for everything. I was/am kind of worry because of my number case. I know that you’re not trying to give so much hope but I cannot help it. My case number is SA 13XX, what do you think about that number?
January 7, 2016 at 16:15
It’s fine – relax.
January 7, 2016 at 16:53
So with this analysis 2016Af0048 has no chance at all.
January 7, 2016 at 17:42
That is NOT what I said – and not accurate.
January 7, 2016 at 21:57
is there a good chance for CN under 50’s ? I think that this fiscal year’s cut off will be the same as the previous . the process is practically the same ,so maybe the cut-off will be around 50’s , little less or little more than that .
January 7, 2016 at 23:32
That is what I concluded in the article above.
January 7, 2016 at 22:37
hi brits, is AF8560 risky?
January 7, 2016 at 23:32
When people ask about risky or safe, they mean is the number going to get current or not. Your number is ALREADY current.
January 7, 2016 at 23:44
Hi Mr. Simon,
thank you for all the support, I know that you already mentioned specific numbers above, but my case number is around AF47200, what do you thing about this number, is it also risky? just a yes or no would be enough
January 8, 2016 at 00:04
Is 47200 above 47000?
January 8, 2016 at 01:53
yes
January 8, 2016 at 12:47
Is there are any case no above 7000 in nepal
January 8, 2016 at 14:20
There are a few cases – not a significant number.
January 8, 2016 at 17:11
hi mr , britsimon i wish you all the very best
Thanks to this wonderful effort this posts avery creamy and solving for me to understand many of the problematic.. becouse tow year wait and see very difficult especially Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela in africa can sustain that ( there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for AS, AF and SA regions) This is a big gift for us in the new year
thanks a lot