OK – in the last few posts I have explained some key concepts that can be used to predict the final cutoffs. I explained the density rate, the derivative growth rate , the response rate and I am about to explain the success rate. I will then show some basic calculations and talk about the regional quotas. I have made the explanations step by step – so feel free to add your own thoughts and come up with your own analysis.
My intention is to educate and inform selectees. I am not trying to make people happy or make people sad – and I must stress that these predictions are informed guesses. There is no way to be 100% certain about some of these things – remember I am trying to anticipate the actions of 90,000+ people, and many factors could cause the numbers to change. So – please be adult enough to understand that thing could change.
OK – that being said, I took the final CEAC data file from last year and too out the non responses. From the remaining cases I totaled the issued numbers, and compared them to the total family rate for those cases.
I then used that percentage against the theoretical selectee count for each region, assuming the derivative rates I wrote about earlier, and the response rate (based on 2015).
Once I do that – I am left with a number of visas needed per region. That number might be above, or below the regional quotas.
To understand the chart above, you will have to have read my posts linked at the top of this page.
The issued rates take into account the refusals, unresolved AP, no shows and so on. As I mentioned before, calculations at regional level are not as accurate as working on country level, but to illustrate a point, this is good enough for now.
So – what does this mean?
Well we know that there are around 50,000 visas available, but those visas are allocated at a regional level.
Looking at the numbers above we can say the following.
Europe and Oceania will go current. There are going to be visas wasted from those two regions.
Africa may have a cutoff, probably above 50,000. There is a small chance that Africa could go current – but that would rely on efficiency from KCC and a disregard for No shows. They did not do that last year – instead they chose to underfill the region. So – I suspect they will do the same in DV2016. We could set the risky range as anything about 47000. Below that number should be safe, above that number has to “wait and see”. Hopefully we will be able to see a number well into the 50’s.
South America is on the cusp of needing a cutoff. It’s quite close so it would be near the highest number – hopefully it can go current.
Asia cannot go current within the normal quota. There will be a final cutoff – probably similar to the number from last year. So – I consider the “risky range ” to be from around 7000 to 8500. Above 8500/9000 chances will be very very small. As usual, Iranian AP cases could be key to the final number, so we will see more about Iranian AP in time. Nepal will probably be the only country with a limit in place at the end of the year – probably in the 6600 to 7000 range.
Possible re-allocation of quotas
OK – this is an area that I am a little uncertain of – so we have to be careful on relying on this information. However, there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for AS, AF and SA regions.
As I mentioned in this post if my assumptions are correct, AS region, perhaps SA and AF regions could run out of visas within their regional quotas. These quotas are defined by rules of the lottery and to a specific formula which takes into account normal (non DV) immigration numbers, population and so on. The intent of the lottery is to provide diversity – so the formula gives a high allocation of quota to “low admission” regions (AF, EU and OC) and a lower allocation to “high admission” regions (AS and SA).
Now, for some reason, the lottery has chosen far too few selectees in EU and OC regions – which as I have pointed out would end up “wasting” several thousand visas. There is some wording in the quota formula (INA 203(c)) that allows for redistribution of unused visas from one region to other regions. Perhaps this is why the EU region selectee count was so low – which in turn has led to a very fast progression in EU VB progress.
So – once KCC determine that all (or nearly all) EU visas have been claimed, they might allow AF, SA, and AS regions to use the unused visas. If that happens we would see SA & AF go current and possibly AS region also. So again – its too early to be sure – we need to wait and see….
Now, let me finish by saying again. These are best guesses at the moment. I may change or refine the ranges later – and I could be totally wrong. There are 8 full months of the DV year left – a lot can happen in that time.