First of all I want to say Happy New Year to all of you. I wish you health and happiness and I hope this year is the year your dreams come true.
As I announced in this earlier post, the CEAC data because available at midnight on January 1st. It is really important that as many people as possible take a few minutes a day to solve some CAPTCHAS to help scrape the CEAC data. Over 4000 people have looked at my announcement, and nearly 300 people have tried out the system to solve at least 1 CAPTCHA. BUT we need more people to share the workload! Right now members Simba, Abdikarim, Guyanese_Spice, ¥εηƴ have each solved over 2000 CAPTCHAS each – BIG thank you to them! I know solving CAPTCHAS is harder on some phones, so some won’t be able to help much, but I do think we can make the scraping go faster and easier if we can share the workload among more readers!
A BIG thank you to those members that have already solved some CAPTCHAS. One member was smart enough to mention how many CAPTCHAS he had solved when he asked a question this morning, and I was especially careful to give him a full and detailed answer to his question. Those who put effort in for the community as a whole can rightfully expect my full attention!
Now then – some people might now know why this data is important. So – let me explain what it is, how much data we have so far and what we can figure out with the data.
CEAC is a database that contains the status of every case for DV lottery. The earlier aticle explained how you can check the status of your own case. It only gives high level status. It cannot tell you whether your DS260 is processed, it cannot tell you when your AP will finish, it cannot tell you your actual interview date. It is just a high level status. It shows the status of the case (waiting to be scheduled, ready for interview, issued, refused, AP etc). Once the case is scheduled, it tells us the embassy the case is assigned to and the number of derivatives on each case. We can also figure out the holes, which is what we refer to as density (how many cases are missing from each 100 case numbers). Density decreases in AF, EU and AS regions, which is why VB progress can accelerate later in the year. Being able to predict that density drop is helpful to predict VB progress. So – it is very useful data.
So far we have solved about 35000 CAPTCHAS, (each captcha allowing us to check one case number). Xarthisius setup the software to go after the current case ranges first and then go back and find the rest of the case numbers, right up to the highest case number in each region. Right now the scraper has already got all the cases that have been scheduled up to the latest VB – so 14300 for AF region, 10700 for EU and so on. That has allowed me to total the totals for each region which I will show below. Currently the system is going after the higher case numbers in each region. We probably have around 65000 more numbers to check. Once we have checked ALL the case numbers we will then be able to see the density changes throughout the whole number range and perform some extensive analysis. However, some interesting details are already being revealed. More on that later in this article.
So – Here are the current totals as shown by the data.
Please note that because of the way CEAC is updated by the embassy, there are some cases where AP, REFUSED and READY numbers are not accurate. For instance. If a principal selectee is refused, the derivatives on that case CANNOT be approved. However, some derivatives might remain in READY or AP status because the embassy doesn’t mark all derivatives as refused. I have a way to calculate those cases but for now, these numbers are a good enough representation to show the progress. However, the embassies seem to be more diligent with Issued status – so that number is more reliable. We can see that nearly 9000 visas have been issued so far – that being after 3 months of interviews. Bear in mind that many of the AP cases will be successful so we will see that issued number rising faster in later months. That is normal.
Now – I also mentioned there was an interesting finding in the data so far. This concerns EU region. As of now I can only see EU numbers up to about 12000. But there is a very obvious drop in density that happened just after 10700. That means at least one of the countries (probably Uzbekistan or Ukraine) met the selection limit by that point. In other words for that country (and I don’t know which one it is) ALL their cases were given case numbers of below 10700. Each of those two countries had nearly 4500 selectees (including derivatives) so that means one of those countries took about 2800 to 3000 cases in the first 10700 case numbers. To understand why that happens please read my old post that explains the draw process.
Now, what does this mean for VB progress. Well, in a post I wrote a couple of months ago (actually written on October 12) I explained how VB progress happens in some detail, using EU as an example. At that time I mentioned we would see increases of about 2500 per month for EU until March or April. In fact, the reduced density will mean we will start to see slightly faster VB progress. Probably about 3500 for the next VB for EU. I had predicted we would see about 16000 by April interviews, and in fact we should be nicely above that by April. These are rough estimates, not accurate predictions, but once I start seeing more complete data I will be able to refine the guesses. I cannot do the same for other regions yet because I need the rest of the data. So please – don’t bother asking me – just get solving CAPTCHAS!! 🙂
March 7, 2018 at 21:16
Brit, is it legal? Did the consulate respond to your request? Did you sent only one request?
March 7, 2018 at 21:19
What are you talking about?
March 7, 2018 at 21:29
About CEAC data scrapper.
March 7, 2018 at 21:48
The data is public. So yes it is legal.
February 5, 2018 at 06:04
Hi!
I just finished scraping over 400 captchas and for some reason I still have the same total I had when I began. I logged out and in a couple of times, but still I get the same problem. I do not have more e-mail addresses of users, I logged in from the same address every time. Do you or xarthisius happen to know what seems to be the problem? Thank you!
February 5, 2018 at 06:38
Hi Bianca, the address is case sensitive.
February 5, 2018 at 15:39
I don’t know. it looks like the CEAC system itself has some problem.
February 5, 2018 at 16:03
Hi Bianca!
There’s something wrong with CEAC site. It allows to type catpcha and send the form, but it never returns with a meaningful status. I’ve disabled the scraper until it’s fixed.
February 5, 2018 at 16:55
Oh, I see! Thanks for the reply! As for what Ethio said, I ticked the “remember me” option, so I always typed the e-mail address the same way, but thanks anyway for the insight.
Hope the site will be up soon. Keep up the good work!
February 5, 2018 at 18:09
Thanks mate!
February 6, 2018 at 16:38
CEAC fixed their issue. Scraper is back and running.
January 19, 2018 at 13:52
Hi. Which are the motives to refuse a visa DV?
January 19, 2018 at 14:52
Don’t meet the requirements, mistakes or lies in the process, ineligible in some way…
January 15, 2018 at 09:34
Bonjour Brit ,
J’ai eu des enfants américains , les jumeaux en mars 2017, j’ai laissé des factures impayés de l’hôpital et je suis revenu en afrique je suis dviste mon CN2018AF25XXX , j’ai les documents à jour , est ce que j’ai la chance d’avoir le visa au moins pour la nationalité de ces enfants et enfin est ce que je serai mis en PA pour les enquêtes sur ces factures laissées impayées ?
Merci de me dire quelque chose .
January 15, 2018 at 14:47
English please.
January 15, 2018 at 09:26
Still Nothing changed ???
January 13, 2018 at 16:43
Okay I will wait!!! Thanks
January 13, 2018 at 16:08
It’s all about interview for those months
January 13, 2018 at 16:10
Nothing changed.
January 13, 2018 at 14:33
Hi britsimon
Is there something new for March and April?
January 13, 2018 at 16:04
What do you mean?
January 12, 2018 at 16:10
What does READY means after a successful interview. My family and I went for the interview on 23 October 2017 and the status so far for the past two weeks is READY. Please assist.
January 12, 2018 at 16:45
It might mean the embassy have not updated it. IN any case – be patient.
January 11, 2018 at 09:54
what is mean AP
January 11, 2018 at 14:35
Administrative Processing – time needed for additional checks after interview.
January 9, 2018 at 03:06
HI Brit,
I was Checked 2017 CEAC Data
2017AS9016 case was issued visa on Asian Region?but Visa Bulletin After May Going Current? how is this possible?
I am asking now, All of selectee ill call to interview ?
January 9, 2018 at 04:39
That is what current means.
January 9, 2018 at 06:45
2017 ASIA Visa bulletin status indication “CURRENT”
But 2017AS9016 case was issued visa on Asian Region.
I am asking for you, all of selectee ill call to interview?
January 9, 2018 at 15:20
YES I already told you that is what current means. Please stop asking, and think about what I answered.
January 8, 2018 at 07:52
Ok Brit what is this numbers?
AF – 46600
EU – 33000
AS – 9600
OC – 1300
SA -1365
Is this safe cases blow this number?
am i correct ?
January 8, 2018 at 15:01
Don’t take the numbers out of context. READ the article.
January 8, 2018 at 15:25
The numbers are the possible issued visas for each region
January 8, 2018 at 15:33
No Juan, that is not correct.
January 8, 2018 at 15:36
How it is? ?
January 8, 2018 at 15:40
“Possible issued visas” means “quota”. These numbers are not quota – but as I said – I prefer the numbers are taken in the context that I wrote them to get proper understanding – not misunderstanding..
January 8, 2018 at 15:46
I am going to use google traslater. ??
January 8, 2018 at 03:38
CEAC Status Scraper id all Done !!!
how to gether data from that website ?
January 8, 2018 at 05:52
We will continue to scrape data for months.
January 7, 2018 at 13:10
Hi there!
How many selectee of dv 2018 for AS region case number between 1 to 10000?
January 7, 2018 at 16:18
I don’t have my laptop with me to check the file. But You can see the density charts – the drop is simple to understand and calculate.
January 6, 2018 at 19:58
Brit, Happy new year! When it’s anticipated interview for AF Egypt case No# 20600 to 21800 interviewed?
January 6, 2018 at 21:26
I don’t know.
January 5, 2018 at 17:59
Please can we know by Countries?? issued,AP,refused,ready …
January 5, 2018 at 18:17
Check the link to the charts.
January 5, 2018 at 18:57
Merry Christmas you too
Please I lost my case # of DV lottery 2018 and when I tried to retrieve for several time but the system says invalid information. that I remember some characters of my case # 2018 555GT7Z7WZTC i am not sure
Grate regards
Dereje from Ethiopia
January 5, 2018 at 19:02
Do not give your data out in public. Use the lost confirmation number link. If you can’t get that to work, there is nothing I can do.
January 5, 2018 at 19:00
Ethiopia
January 5, 2018 at 10:38
I mean AF CASES
January 5, 2018 at 14:51
Ahh. Please use reply!
I need some time to look at the data more carefully. So – patience.
January 5, 2018 at 10:34
brit Simon can all cases dv 2018 get chances of interview
January 5, 2018 at 14:51
No
January 5, 2018 at 09:51
Hello,
Thanks for sharing these details.
I would like to know the number of rejected/AP/Issued Syrians in December and November.
I noticed form people comments in your blog that those are from banned countries and live abroad for a while (not in Syria or other banned countries) receive approval or AP then approval; do you think this is true based on numbers.
January 5, 2018 at 14:49
Use the tool provided by Xarthisius for individual embassies.
Just living abroad doesn’t overcome the ban. Having a second nationality can.
January 5, 2018 at 06:11
Thank you guys, thank you Brit all done and set for analysis.
January 5, 2018 at 05:54
wow !!!, well done folks, just woke up to its all done.
now we can get some vibes from Brits!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
am really expecting an increase in next week’s vb bcos infact am tired of waiting already