OK – I am obviously getting a LOT of questions and seeing a lot of confused statements from people that don’t understand how the process works. Some people are looking at the last couple of VBs and suggestion the numbers will end at 40000 – which is RUBBISH.
So – let me try to explain a little on a simple way to understand what numbers are safe for AF region.
The June VB announced 34150 as the cutoff for June. I have explained before that the pace that KCC are trying to achieve is around 2000 per month. We ended March on ~6800 (call that 7000), so they expect to issue 2000 in April, May and June from the CNs up to 34150. Make sense? OK – so let us assume the first 34150 yields 13000 visas. Sounds simplistic – but actually – that is more or less right.
The target for AF region is up to 22000 visas maximum. Some will be taken by AoS cases, so we probably have at least 6000 to 6500 for case numbers above 34150. It could be more, but I expect more issuances from the first 34000 over time, so I would rather be conservative. Ok – keep that number for a minute.
We know that there are around 350 cases per 1000 case numbers above 34000 as I explained earlier in the year here. Each case contains derivatives and we could use an average number of around 1.6 people per case.
We also can see some of the response rate as I explained in this post. That showed a response rate of around 50% – but we know that number is growing (hidden by the DS260 backlog). I expect that response rate to grow to at least 60%, perhaps 65%.
Not every case gets approved at interview – some countries (such as Ghana) are below 50% approval, whilst others such as Egypt are around 80% – but 65% is a reasonable average and is consistent with previous years.
With these assumptions we can see how many more case numbers are needed to fill the remaining visas. These are ASSUMPTIONS to paint the picture – very simplistic – but this should explain why I say AF under 60000 can feel confident and numbers above that start to get some risk.
OK – 350 cases at 65% response rate (my maximum assumption) = 228 cases per thousand that will respond.
Of those that respond 65% will be approved = 148 (let’s call that 150).
150 cases at 1.6 people per case = 240 visas per 1000 case numbers (above 34150). That is about the highest number we would see because I used a pessimistic response rate. It could be 220 or perhaps even 200 – but for now – let us use the 240.
Let us say there are 6000 visas left – 6000/240 = 25. That means KCC would need 25,000 case numbers OVER 34150 to yield the remaining 6000 visas issued. that is 59150.
Now, if the response rate is only 60% (which is likely) and we get 220 visas per thousand, and let us assume we have ~6500 left that would mean almost 30k case numbers.
So – I think AF numbers up to 60000 can think of themselves as “safe”. Numbers from 60000 to 70000 have some risk (70000 needs 180 visas per 1000 which is a response rate of 50%), and numbers above 70000 start getting very risky.
As ever, my intention is to inform, not to stress people. I wish everyone could get a visa – so best of luck to all!
By the way, people have asked how they can show support for what I do – so please read this if you would like to help me pay for a treehouse…. 🙂
Africa – estimate example
April 22, 2015 at 21:15
Thank you very much! That helps a lot.
But I actually did my medical examination in October 2014 (sealed envelope) because I thought I could filled at that time. Should I pay and re-do it again or do you think I’ll be fine will the same one in my package?
April 22, 2015 at 21:58
I would personally re do the medical…
April 24, 2015 at 03:21
So do you think my number will be current around June for an interview in July-August (with the 6 weeks advantage)???
April 24, 2015 at 04:04
I don’t think you will be current for July. August looks most likely. For that to be the case the VB would have to have a number higher than your number in the July VB, and that VB is published around June 10-15. As soon as you see the VB making your number current you can submit the paperwork.
April 24, 2015 at 05:27
Got it! I just have to wait then.
And do you think my spouse will have to be interviewed back home or is my interview here going to be enough (I am filling follow to join for her to come in the U.S.)???
April 24, 2015 at 11:05
She will have to attend an interview at a consulate abroad – and the timing of that is something you will have to control.
Good AoS information (I485 checklist and loads of other info) available here – http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-aos-only.7/
April 25, 2015 at 10:02
Britsimon 2nls are out,so when do we expect the next prediction?
April 25, 2015 at 14:10
April 25, 2015 at 10:04
And data too about the 2nl
April 27, 2015 at 13:16
mon CN is 2015AF69XXX ..is that I have a chance to have an interview with your different estimate for Africa?
April 27, 2015 at 14:48
That number is still in a risky range – not high enough to give up, not low enough to be safe. You can only watch and see what happens.
April 29, 2015 at 18:21
I’m really worried. Could AF701** be reached?
April 29, 2015 at 18:30
It might – but it is looking risky. Good luck!
April 30, 2015 at 13:19
my cn is af 57000 plz when my interview can do u think agust on september
April 30, 2015 at 14:59
May 2, 2015 at 22:38
thank you britsimon thanks very good luck for all aplicant may god help you all
May 4, 2015 at 07:56
hi Mr.Brit Simon
what’s happened in 2004 &2005 and what’s the different between mentioned years and 2015 ?
May 4, 2015 at 16:28
In 2004 and 2005 the quotas would have been different, a different set of eligible countries, much less internet access in AF region in particular and far fewer selectees chose. In short there is no point in comparing those years to 2015.
May 5, 2015 at 00:10
hi my case numb is 53XXX i have de chance to have an interview in which month?
May 5, 2015 at 04:43
Most likely in September.
May 5, 2015 at 23:55
hi Brit, thank for all you do for us. my cn is af00066xxx. can i hope my interview？
May 6, 2015 at 02:19
You can hope – but it is not certain – some chance, just not 100% safe.
May 6, 2015 at 15:17
I watched the excel file and there are about 8900 visas to 20485 (without holes) or 30700 (with holes) reported 0.43
It remains to 6700 visas for the three remaining bulletins visas and will give 4400 visas for the months of May and June 1000 visas for cases treated outside.
If we increase this ratio up to 0.6
there will be 6700 / 0.6 = 11,150
11 150 + 21750 = 32900 which corresponds to 67.4XX
So it is possible to 67k
May 6, 2015 at 17:11
OK – yes I see numbers like that in my optimistic range…
May 7, 2015 at 13:15
With the sending delay DS260, the kcc Rather wait until the last moment to have the maximum number of files.
Fill the DS260 rhymes with number of passport and Af many had not and have it we will have spend 3 -4 months . So you see?
Wait for the next VB it touches to 43XXX.
May 9, 2015 at 21:52
please I’m very sad my case number big I don’t know what happen in kcc but I will good news
Africa is very slowly (morroco)
May 12, 2015 at 05:04
Hi only 40000 down safe but the restno.ok
May 12, 2015 at 05:40
I don’t agree.
May 12, 2015 at 06:11
I’m sure the August bulletin for AF will slowly go to 38000 and September 40000 with this low rate,IV lost hope
May 13, 2015 at 01:05
how about af718xx please some one ??
May 13, 2015 at 04:52
That number is very risky now….
May 13, 2015 at 04:56
After this VB, do you think <=50000 for AF are still safe???
May 13, 2015 at 05:01
May 13, 2015 at 15:10
Dear Brit ,
Do you think I can still hoped Mr. brit. As I have made travel plans and as the green card remains a great opportunity, I thought to wait and see what gives her before undertaking anything. And Given the evolution of the visa bulletin, I wondered if my box still has a chance. Normally I have to travel late July as the latest visa bulletin is issued this month, I request your opinion in relation to my box number.
Again thank you and congratulated you for this big job .J’estime your work
Thank you in advance
May 14, 2015 at 18:25
HI After this VB, do you think AF66xxx is still safe?? witing for your answer please
May 14, 2015 at 19:28
THat number wasn’t “safe” BEFORE this VB – and obviously is more risky now. All you can do is wait and see what happens.
May 14, 2015 at 19:01
My CN is AF 57000 can I hpoe?
May 14, 2015 at 19:29
Yes you can and should hope. I cannot be sure you will get in – but let us wait and see…..
June 5, 2015 at 10:14
My number is 64447 is the number safe or not because am getting worry after what i have seen above thanks
June 5, 2015 at 18:17
No it is not safe – it is somewhat risky – you can only wait and see…
June 9, 2015 at 22:09
am AF56100,any hopes please
June 9, 2015 at 23:07
Yes you can hope. It isn’t 100% safe, but has a good chance – we will know better after this VB.
June 10, 2015 at 00:54
Hello Mr Brit how do you view af53*** is it a safe number or risky?
June 10, 2015 at 01:28
I think it is pretty safe.
September 3, 2015 at 09:13
hi britsimon,my cn is af00060973, i got my first notification letter in february 2015 and send my ds260 in june 2015,dont you think it was unjust because people across the globe got their first notification letters as early as june 2014,and what do you think i should do
September 3, 2015 at 14:05
Firstly, your entry was available for you to check from May 2014 – so I don’t know why you waited so long to check it – but that is your decision. Then you waited from February to June to submit a form that takes an hour or two to complete. Again, that is your decision. So – nothing about that is unjust in any way – and there is nothing you can do except take things more seriously in the future.
Now, as it happened AF was cut off at 50000 – so your number is too high anyway. So – as I say, there is nothing you can do.
May 4, 2016 at 01:58
hi I am musa and my CN IS AF00040XXX.WHEN WILL I GO FOR INTERVIEW?
May 4, 2016 at 03:37
You have to tell us the year now. 2016 or 2017?
May 25, 2016 at 09:16
My case NO is AF34K , selected 2017 and already submit my Application what is the expected day for interview ?
May 25, 2016 at 14:09
June 17, 2018 at 08:22