This post should probably come with a “warning”. In order to understand the points I make in this post you are going to have to exercise your brain. I can’t give nice clean answers to the questions I am being asked and I want to explain why. In my mind I can see reasons why the final number could be anywhere between 55000 and 70000. There are too many factors to be precise – especially as I am trying to predict something that is still over 4.5 months away. No one knows for sure – not even KCC.
So – if you are looking for a nice clear answer – I don’t have one – and you won’t find it in this post. If you are wondering if your AF42XXX number is safe – you don’t need to worry. Likewise, if you still think the number will get to 81000 “because it did last year”, you have not been paying attention to the differences this year. However, there is a big gap in the range I consider to be possible – so let me try and explain why.
After the last VB there are a lot of people wondering what will happen and whether their number is safe. KCC issued a number that was 500 case numbers below my predicted range. That is really a very small number (only 192 cases because of the holes), but still it shows that they either have more backlog cases than I expected OR they did not have enough capacity at the embassy to schedule the 1800 interviews I used in my calculations. To be perfectly honest – I think they were wrong to assign so few cases – if I worked at KCC (as some people suspect I do!) then I would have pushed the number higher – to avoid under allocating or undershooting the monthly issued pace they should be maintaining.
In reality the AF issued number is slightly behind where it should be and the monthly pace is slightly low). They should be issuing about 10% of the annual quota of visas per month at this point – so that would be 2000. They are just slightly under that number. I suspect there are more no shows than they expect due to the DS260 form. They have stated their is more response than they expected but the ability to fill in a form online with no cost for postage has probably made some people submit the form that would not have submitted in previous years. However, someone in that position is likely to not even show up for their interview given the expenses involved. So – with that in mind I would have encouraged KCC to schedule a few extra interviews.
OK so back to the estimate. In my earlier estimate post I explained the position as I saw things then and explained the pace. I reasoned that the issued number at the end of June should be 13000. However, since KCC seem to be under issuing below the 2000/month case the numbers are tracking a bit lower than that. They issued 1842 in April and unless they have an amazing 2 weeks they will undershoot in May too. Apply that assumption to June and we could be just over 12000 at the end of June instead of the 13000 I predicted.
Now, once we see the 2NLs we will know that the July interview numbers will be. If they are much less than 1800 I would start to suspect that July will undershoot too – to let’s assume we get to 14000 by the end of July (which equates to the 36500 VB number). The highest quota we can predict for AF region is 22000. That quota is based on a global quota of over 52000 – which is an optimistic view given the number is supposed to end at 50000. But some of those 22000 will be taken by AoS cases (which do not show in CEAC) – so in CEAC we will only see a max of 21000, possibly 20500. For a bit of wiggle room – let’s work on 20500. That would mean at the end of July we will have 6500 visas remaining. Remember they don’t HAVE to hit that target – they would consider their job was successful if the global number only hit 50000 – so we might see less than 20000 in CEAC.
OK – so how can we estimate how many cases are needed to fill that 6500 remaining visas.
First not every case responds, or might have responded but their DS260 is not processed. So – if the VB went up by 1000 (FOR EXAMPLE) you had the next 1000 cases only 530 of those would be ready for scheduling.
Then there is the approval rate. Approval rates vary greatly by embassy – but we could assume an average rate of around 65%.
Then you have to know the derivative rate. The number of family members per case has risen dramatically during the DV year (which has been a large factor in reducing the high number. To explain – AF had 58000 selectees and there were 39266 cases in CEAC. That means there were 1.51 people per case. If you check the CEAC data now for scheduled cases there are 1.86 family members per case in AF region – a 23% increase. That is people who married after their win, babies being born etc. This is a HUGE factor that we have never been able to measure before. It is like saying the 58000 became more than 71000!
So anyway – let us assume they had 6500 visas left at the end of July (36500).
OK, 6500 divided by the new derivative rate (1.86) is 3495 cases.
Those cases must be approved so divide those by the approval rate of 65% – you get 5376.
Those 5376 cases have to have responded and that rate is growing but let us assume it is the current 53% so you divide by that number 5376/.53 = 10143.
So then you need to count 10143 cases above 36500 and if you check the link below that CEAC extract has every case number up to 89799. 10143 cases comes out to number 66958. That is (in my mind) a THEORETICAL MAXIMUM case number that could be reached and I increase that in my own mind for a bit of wiggle room. However, it is unlikely to be reached. Why?
Some of the visas in August and July WILL go to backlog cases (cases under 36500 that were late submissions) and also AP cases that resolve at that time. So – even though there might be 6500 visas available – they really are not all available for cases above 36500. Based on what we have seen so far, we could see 1000 to 2000 of those 6500 go to backlog/AP cases. So – our number is likely to be lower than the 66958 number – and that is one reason for my uncertainty in my answers when people ask if they are safe. There could be a big drop lower than the 66958. For this reason when someone at 75XXX asks me I am now starting to say I think their number is too high. If they ask at 65XXX all I can say is what many have seen from me recently – “wait and see”. If your number is in the 60’s you really can’t give up – you just have to wait until the VB published in July.
Now there is another problem. My numbers do not take in to account embassy capacity. If KCC keep on their conservative VB for August, they will be leaving a lot of interviews to be scheduled in September. The embassies do not unlimited capacity for DV cases so it won’t be possible to get to the highest numbers – no matter what the theoretical maximum says. In that case, the final VB will be limited by embassy capacity and the AF quota would not all be used. So – when the last VB was released at 500 less than my minimum it was a disappointment because it shows they are not doing what they need to do to avoid leaving too much work until the last minute. So for me, while I can still make a mathematical case that 60000 should be safe, capacity issues could threaten even that number – which is why my wait and see response starts at around 55000.
Now I know this post will prompt a lot of questions of “what about my number”. I am hoping people will read this article properly and not swamp me with those questions – and if your number is 55XXX to 69XXX you are going to get this exact response – “wait and see”.
I am getting lots of questions of how many cases between 36500 and XXX number. The complete set of numbers can be seen through
this post – please check that yourselves to avoid me doing all that extra work and you waiting for me….
Once the 2NLs are released I will post a prediction for numbers for the next VB. The CEAC data just after the 2NLs has some data we need to plug in to these estimates – so look out for that in about 1 week from now.
Africa estimate update
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May 17, 2015 at 17:16
Thanks for the hard work.
May 17, 2015 at 17:26
Dear Britsimon,
Great job, thanks for posting useful information for AF region. Could you think to do same estimate update for EU?
Thanks and Best Regards,
May 17, 2015 at 17:30
I’m trying to do something similar for EU and AS – although for EU the picture is all about the next VB…
May 18, 2015 at 06:13
Do you mean you are uncertain if in September there will be VB increase for EU?
May 18, 2015 at 15:18
Yes. Well yes meaning for September interviews (obviously not IN September).
May 18, 2015 at 18:04
I meant August VB (for September interviews), which will be issued in around mid July.
May 18, 2015 at 20:23
Oh ok – right – that is correct.
May 17, 2015 at 17:32
Great job dear Brit,
I’m 46*** (Damn! I’ve became a number now!!!) .. All I’m worried about is capacity issues you just mentioned in this wonderful post, they should work a little bit harder so we can make it … They should hire you there Mr Bit and give you a great salary 😀
May 17, 2015 at 22:20
Lol
May 17, 2015 at 17:33
Good work …..keep up the hard work..
May 17, 2015 at 18:00
Thanks for the great post. Based on the embassy capacity factor, can I assume that embassies that might handle less DV interviews will be safer? For instance, I am AS region but my interview location in Montreal Canada?
May 17, 2015 at 22:17
Well it is still a case number thing for the region. So one embassy could be empty while another is at full capacity.
May 17, 2015 at 18:00
thank you for your job
May 17, 2015 at 18:06
great update. I just want to add a factor that MAYBE is the reason for a low allocation for the July interviews. During that month it’s the fasting month of Ramadan in many AF countries and the working hours in embassies are reduced to just 6 hours or less a day.
May 17, 2015 at 22:16
Hmmm, maybe, but not that likely given the makeup of the AF continent.
May 17, 2015 at 22:43
Probably but for sure all US embassies in north Africa, Sudan and much of West Africa won’t work at full capacity during July because of the reduced hours.
May 18, 2015 at 01:01
Yes that could be true.
May 17, 2015 at 18:13
Eagerly waiting for the EU estimation. Thanks in advance.
May 17, 2015 at 18:29
This raises a glimmer of hope for those who were already getting hopeless – thanks!
May 17, 2015 at 18:48
God bless you Brit !
May 17, 2015 at 19:07
Thank-you Brit for your informative post! Hopefully you won’t be swamped so much so you can enjoy more time with your precious family.
May 17, 2015 at 22:10
🙂
May 17, 2015 at 19:25
Hats off to you Simon! Appreciate the work your doing.
When will you release Asia update? Very eager to see that….
May 17, 2015 at 22:10
ASAP.
May 17, 2015 at 20:19
Great work Brit
Just want to know the meaning of AP, AoS and PC.THANKS
May 17, 2015 at 22:10
Ap – administrate processing.
Aos is adjustment of status cases, processing USA.
CP is consular processing which means cases processed outside of the USA.
May 17, 2015 at 20:49
That’s great mr. britsimon, thank you very much.
May 17, 2015 at 21:19
Hi, what do you think is safe number for Europe? It’s quite confusing, because DV2015 had number up to 40000, this year only 25000. Is number 19xxx safe?
May 18, 2015 at 01:04
That number is very safe.
May 17, 2015 at 21:54
Hat’s off to you Mr Brit .. what a great analysis ! so this year is exceptional Huh !
May 17, 2015 at 21:58
Speechless
your right to say wait and see Brit
Thanks.fingers crossed
May 17, 2015 at 22:43
Thanks for your hard work simon
i want to ask you about embassies capacity , if the embassy where i pick for my interview on DS260 is not busy, is KCC will Give me advantage more than the Case # scheduled in busy embassy even its lower than my case >???
May 18, 2015 at 01:00
No that does not speed up your case.
May 17, 2015 at 23:14
hello Mr brit ;
after this post and based on your estimate i can do this calcul .so 6500 visa for africa above 36500 ,2000 of those 6500 go to backlog/AP cases .
now we have 4500 visa above 36000, derivative rate is 1,86 ,4500/1.86=2419 .approval rate is 65 percent or 65\100 .for delevred 4500 visa we need 2419*100/65 =3721 cases.
number of case equivalent for 36500=22653 in (Global-1-1-2015.xlsx).
22653+3721=26653.
the case number equivalent of this number case(26653) is 47204.
that is mean all case number under this is safe 100 percent.
when the number is higher of 47204 the percentage low.
thank you .
good luck for all winners.
May 18, 2015 at 00:56
No that is incorrect, you have missed the response rate.
May 18, 2015 at 02:53
it the response rate is 65%, the number would be around 52059.
May 18, 2015 at 02:37
ahhhh yes its incorrect, You are right sorry…….
May 18, 2015 at 02:43
my problem i don t know how to inter te respons rate in this calcul can you explaine …..
May 18, 2015 at 02:59
Not every selectee proceeds with their case – some never even send in the DS260. Those are “non responses”
May 18, 2015 at 13:08
yes now i understand thank you ……………..
May 18, 2015 at 03:13
He semon..what chance for af 2015 42xxx to be current in august.
May 18, 2015 at 03:16
I don’t know yet – I will know after I see the 2NLs
May 18, 2015 at 03:31
Hi Simon…thank you for your Hard smart work.
do you think 382xx will be squeezedinto august interview? I know u r waiting 4 2ndL, but what do you think?
May 18, 2015 at 05:13
That would seem a safe guess.
May 18, 2015 at 03:32
there are 660 real case numbers between my CN n AF 36500
May 18, 2015 at 05:43
hi Simon,
Will you also publish your estimate for EU too? You have AF, AS already. So looking forward to EU estimate).
May 18, 2015 at 15:22
I will be taking a look at it – but you and I have had many of those conversations already – so you should be able to write the EU one yourself!!!
May 18, 2015 at 18:13
Well, thanks for the compliment, Simon:), but I really do not have so much knowledge as you have.
May 18, 2015 at 08:40
and AF 560xx have chance?
May 18, 2015 at 14:51
Wait and see
May 18, 2015 at 09:02
What is 2NLs
May 18, 2015 at 14:50
The 2nd notification letter – the interview appointment notification
May 18, 2015 at 09:57
thanks for this hard and deficult work u do !!
May 18, 2015 at 11:07
mr brit thanks for that good job my question is the next visa bulletiin of agust can show if the number between 55000 and 65000 still have chnace or not???
May 18, 2015 at 14:09
It will give us more data to help, but we won’t be certain until the final VB.
May 18, 2015 at 14:37
thank u so much for ur answer i still have hope than 🙂
May 18, 2015 at 11:52
CN 78500 FOR AF should I wait and see or give up
May 18, 2015 at 14:07
Well – no matter what I say, you are going to watch, but honestly I don’t think that number has a chance now. I’m sorry. 🙁
May 18, 2015 at 12:22
IS AF50000 safe Britsimon?
May 18, 2015 at 14:04
I believe so.
May 18, 2015 at 12:35
thank you ,for your great job
May 18, 2015 at 13:19
Hi BritSimon,
The fact that Egypt and Ethiopia are limited should be interpreted as a good sign for progression AF. There are nearly 6,000 selected in both countries. thank you
May 18, 2015 at 14:00
The fact that they are were limited is normal – it is because they get a lot of selectees but all their selectees are concentrated in the first 30000 CNs or so. So – Ethiopia is now not limited and Egypt will shortly hit the limit.
May 18, 2015 at 14:37
Hiii bro britsimon how are u doing. thank u very much for ur hard work, may Lord Jesus be with & bless you…i am east african Eritrean my case no 2015AF52××× when Jesus say yes no one can say no…may God bless you richily with ur all family…!!!
May 18, 2015 at 15:25
Good luck.
May 18, 2015 at 14:51
Does that mean that Ethiopia already has hit the maximum of 3500. and if so what is impact
May 18, 2015 at 14:52
Thanks for the good work. If a number like 60000 is to be safe, then it means we may expect a jump of at least 12000 per month in the remaining 2 VBs for AF.
May 18, 2015 at 15:07
Hello sir britsimon..
Im from af region and my case is af51100
Can i have a chance for interviw
May 18, 2015 at 15:23
Yes
May 18, 2015 at 16:10
thanks Brit for the quick resonse
May 18, 2015 at 16:38
plz how much case number have we betwen 36500-56815
May 18, 2015 at 20:36
7103
May 18, 2015 at 19:29
hi britsimon!!
thank you for the work which help too many person to understand how the DV is walking…i m AF610X…AND I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW HOW MANY cn have us between 61000-36500…
idon’t really know if i should give up or not….still a chance???
thank you again…
May 18, 2015 at 20:14
8378 cases (plus family). Realistically – you cannot “give up” can you. YOu have to wait until the end – which is just a few weeks away. Best of luck!
May 19, 2015 at 19:55
thank you brit…
still waiting for august prediction…
AF 6104xx…
i’m really anxious about my case…oh my LORD…
May 19, 2015 at 21:38
I can only issue the predictions after the 2NLs go out – so you have to wait a few more days for that….
May 18, 2015 at 20:25
Hi Simon, do you have an idea of the response rate that KCC works with as of now to allocate interview slots? is it 53% or more?
May 18, 2015 at 20:44
That number is growing. THey have the actually responses – so they don’t calculate the response rate – they just look at how many cases are now DS260 completed and decide how much the VB has to increase to get the number of interviews they want.
May 18, 2015 at 21:07
Oh wow. I guess this is why AF is slightly under the normal visa issuance. I thought that by now they would’ve started to understand that filling a form online for free is something and showing up for the interview with all the costs needed (which can be very high in so many African countries) is another thing.
May 18, 2015 at 21:45
They are slow to see these patterns….
May 18, 2015 at 20:26
In AF.
May 18, 2015 at 21:50
Hello Brit
Thanks for your goodwork am a DV 2016 selectee my cn is 2016AF00047***. Is this number safe or not
May 18, 2015 at 21:56
WE don’t know the highest numbers yet so it is too early to say….
May 18, 2015 at 22:04
Hi Brit, thank U for all U have done and continue to do. Can we say that if the final cut off is 70,000 and my country embassy is below capacity, is it possible for that country to interview cases higher than the final cutoff (70,000)?
May 18, 2015 at 22:27
No that is not possible (not legal)
May 18, 2015 at 22:16
hi mr Britsimon our case it 2016AF00004xxx we are from egypt what do you think about our case?and we had just sumbitted our ds260 if we have a chance when they gone a be send the 2NL?we are from egypt thank you for your help
May 18, 2015 at 23:46
Hard to say at this time because Egypt will have slower processing than the rest of AF region – but probably around DEc/Jan for interview (2NL 2 months before that).
May 18, 2015 at 23:59
thank you for your answer but do you think that number of case we have its (good or very good or exelant )AF00004x x x ?
May 19, 2015 at 00:43
Excellent!
May 18, 2015 at 22:29
Hi brit, thank you for yr job. How many cases do we have between 36500-71050
May 18, 2015 at 23:26
THat is available here. https://britsimonsays.com/dv2015-ceac-data-published/
May 19, 2015 at 06:00
Hi Brits,
Sometimes I get hope from your post but at times in doubt with my 2015 AF 50070. How positive can I be given your post.,
Secondly I made some minor mistakes on my ds260 form. Can I correct them and how do I unlock the form. please help me.
May 19, 2015 at 13:43
You can be pretty comfortable. Unlock your form by emailing KCC
May 19, 2015 at 06:07
Brit can you give me a possible situation of my CN becoming current? 2015 AF 74300.
May 19, 2015 at 13:42
I do not think your number can get current.
May 19, 2015 at 06:39
Thanks for this data and work Britsimon,I am so great full..i must say I’m still scared n nervous bad cuz at one time I get hope and some other time its all gone away,just read through all the comments and noticed you telling someone with 40*** most likely September and it all confuses me again,well my cn is AF4046* I HOPE n look forward to get current in August so I can know wher I stand n start preparing dovs for me and my son,cuz this slow pace is really frustrating to us especially him..thanks once again my friend
May 19, 2015 at 13:40
Does it really matter to you when you interview as long as you’re safe? Stop stressing.
May 19, 2015 at 13:44
hi Simon
what will be the cut off number for africa if KCC decide to release 55000 visa instaed of 50000
May 19, 2015 at 13:58
My calculations are based on them allowing about 52/53k. That is what they did last year and that is about the max we can get.
May 19, 2015 at 07:26
hello britsimon what u think my CN 43xxx only two VB are remained is it good, very good, or Excellent?
May 19, 2015 at 13:38
It’s fine.
May 19, 2015 at 07:32
Hi brit do u think with the new dervatives rate at response rate 60% they might be giving more than 280 visas for each 1000 case number ??
May 19, 2015 at 13:38
Maybe. It sounds like you have done the math but I haven’t looked at that.
May 19, 2015 at 08:03
is AF40000 safe? will it be Aug or Sep?
May 19, 2015 at 13:32
Safe yes, most likely August.