This post should probably come with a “warning”. In order to understand the points I make in this post you are going to have to exercise your brain. I can’t give nice clean answers to the questions I am being asked and I want to explain why. In my mind I can see reasons why the final number could be anywhere between 55000 and 70000. There are too many factors to be precise – especially as I am trying to predict something that is still over 4.5 months away. No one knows for sure – not even KCC.
So – if you are looking for a nice clear answer – I don’t have one – and you won’t find it in this post. If you are wondering if your AF42XXX number is safe – you don’t need to worry. Likewise, if you still think the number will get to 81000 “because it did last year”, you have not been paying attention to the differences this year. However, there is a big gap in the range I consider to be possible – so let me try and explain why.
After the last VB there are a lot of people wondering what will happen and whether their number is safe. KCC issued a number that was 500 case numbers below my predicted range. That is really a very small number (only 192 cases because of the holes), but still it shows that they either have more backlog cases than I expected OR they did not have enough capacity at the embassy to schedule the 1800 interviews I used in my calculations. To be perfectly honest – I think they were wrong to assign so few cases – if I worked at KCC (as some people suspect I do!) then I would have pushed the number higher – to avoid under allocating or undershooting the monthly issued pace they should be maintaining.
In reality the AF issued number is slightly behind where it should be and the monthly pace is slightly low). They should be issuing about 10% of the annual quota of visas per month at this point – so that would be 2000. They are just slightly under that number. I suspect there are more no shows than they expect due to the DS260 form. They have stated their is more response than they expected but the ability to fill in a form online with no cost for postage has probably made some people submit the form that would not have submitted in previous years. However, someone in that position is likely to not even show up for their interview given the expenses involved. So – with that in mind I would have encouraged KCC to schedule a few extra interviews.
OK so back to the estimate. In my earlier estimate post I explained the position as I saw things then and explained the pace. I reasoned that the issued number at the end of June should be 13000. However, since KCC seem to be under issuing below the 2000/month case the numbers are tracking a bit lower than that. They issued 1842 in April and unless they have an amazing 2 weeks they will undershoot in May too. Apply that assumption to June and we could be just over 12000 at the end of June instead of the 13000 I predicted.
Now, once we see the 2NLs we will know that the July interview numbers will be. If they are much less than 1800 I would start to suspect that July will undershoot too – to let’s assume we get to 14000 by the end of July (which equates to the 36500 VB number). The highest quota we can predict for AF region is 22000. That quota is based on a global quota of over 52000 – which is an optimistic view given the number is supposed to end at 50000. But some of those 22000 will be taken by AoS cases (which do not show in CEAC) – so in CEAC we will only see a max of 21000, possibly 20500. For a bit of wiggle room – let’s work on 20500. That would mean at the end of July we will have 6500 visas remaining. Remember they don’t HAVE to hit that target – they would consider their job was successful if the global number only hit 50000 – so we might see less than 20000 in CEAC.
OK – so how can we estimate how many cases are needed to fill that 6500 remaining visas.
First not every case responds, or might have responded but their DS260 is not processed. So – if the VB went up by 1000 (FOR EXAMPLE) you had the next 1000 cases only 530 of those would be ready for scheduling.
Then there is the approval rate. Approval rates vary greatly by embassy – but we could assume an average rate of around 65%.
Then you have to know the derivative rate. The number of family members per case has risen dramatically during the DV year (which has been a large factor in reducing the high number. To explain – AF had 58000 selectees and there were 39266 cases in CEAC. That means there were 1.51 people per case. If you check the CEAC data now for scheduled cases there are 1.86 family members per case in AF region – a 23% increase. That is people who married after their win, babies being born etc. This is a HUGE factor that we have never been able to measure before. It is like saying the 58000 became more than 71000!
So anyway – let us assume they had 6500 visas left at the end of July (36500).
OK, 6500 divided by the new derivative rate (1.86) is 3495 cases.
Those cases must be approved so divide those by the approval rate of 65% – you get 5376.
Those 5376 cases have to have responded and that rate is growing but let us assume it is the current 53% so you divide by that number 5376/.53 = 10143.
So then you need to count 10143 cases above 36500 and if you check the link below that CEAC extract has every case number up to 89799. 10143 cases comes out to number 66958. That is (in my mind) a THEORETICAL MAXIMUM case number that could be reached and I increase that in my own mind for a bit of wiggle room. However, it is unlikely to be reached. Why?
Some of the visas in August and July WILL go to backlog cases (cases under 36500 that were late submissions) and also AP cases that resolve at that time. So – even though there might be 6500 visas available – they really are not all available for cases above 36500. Based on what we have seen so far, we could see 1000 to 2000 of those 6500 go to backlog/AP cases. So – our number is likely to be lower than the 66958 number – and that is one reason for my uncertainty in my answers when people ask if they are safe. There could be a big drop lower than the 66958. For this reason when someone at 75XXX asks me I am now starting to say I think their number is too high. If they ask at 65XXX all I can say is what many have seen from me recently – “wait and see”. If your number is in the 60’s you really can’t give up – you just have to wait until the VB published in July.
Now there is another problem. My numbers do not take in to account embassy capacity. If KCC keep on their conservative VB for August, they will be leaving a lot of interviews to be scheduled in September. The embassies do not unlimited capacity for DV cases so it won’t be possible to get to the highest numbers – no matter what the theoretical maximum says. In that case, the final VB will be limited by embassy capacity and the AF quota would not all be used. So – when the last VB was released at 500 less than my minimum it was a disappointment because it shows they are not doing what they need to do to avoid leaving too much work until the last minute. So for me, while I can still make a mathematical case that 60000 should be safe, capacity issues could threaten even that number – which is why my wait and see response starts at around 55000.
Now I know this post will prompt a lot of questions of “what about my number”. I am hoping people will read this article properly and not swamp me with those questions – and if your number is 55XXX to 69XXX you are going to get this exact response – “wait and see”.
I am getting lots of questions of how many cases between 36500 and XXX number. The complete set of numbers can be seen through this post
– please check that yourselves to avoid me doing all that extra work and you waiting for me….
Once the 2NLs are released I will post a prediction for numbers for the next VB. The CEAC data just after the 2NLs has some data we need to plug in to these estimates – so look out for that in about 1 week from now.
Africa estimate update
May 19, 2015 at 15:55
is AF 48000 safe…august or september?
May 19, 2015 at 17:43
May 19, 2015 at 16:06
May 19, 2015 at 4:03 pm
A late question. Are the 50,000 visas for the selected enterants or for them and their family member? To clarify my questiom if the first person interviewed has 5 family members and he was approved to get a visa. Will he get five visas of the 50,000 dv visas or he and all his family members will count as one visa out of the 50,000? I will appreciate your response.
May 19, 2015 at 16:19
ignore my question. I just re-read this post and get the answer. I really appreciate your hard work.
May 19, 2015 at 17:53
Hi simon please how many cases between 36500 and my cn af52700 and have à chance
May 19, 2015 at 17:57
Please check the file yourself – it is linked in the post. I think your number is safe.
May 19, 2015 at 19:31
Thank you brit but how i can know how many cases between 36500 and 52700
May 19, 2015 at 21:38
they are 5950 cases between 36500 and 25700
May 19, 2015 at 21:40
please Mr Britsimon my Cn is AF602xx and I have to pass to plan B but I’m not yet shure for plan A what do you think please
May 19, 2015 at 22:00
You still have a chance for plan A. We can only wait and see. Best of luck.
May 19, 2015 at 22:53
HI Brist , thanks for all- How many case is between 36500 and 56874
May 19, 2015 at 23:01
HI mr BRIT i was selected for dv2016 and
i have an inquiry that is worrisome to me ,during my initial dv entry application i missed one Character of my hasband’s middle name like (RAEOFE) i writed (RAEFE) but during ds260 filling i corrected this mistake i wrote (RAEOFE) this means that his middle name in ds260 is different from that in my entry application.
i’am worried that such mistake will affect our visa by anyway.
about kcc and if they find not maching they will not send 2NL?? or if they send 2NL in the embassy what gone be hapend in interview?? for knowes i’am the main applicant and no mistakes in my full name give me advice should i contact with kcc i just sumbitted yesterday our ds260
May 19, 2015 at 23:16
THat will not be a problem. Relax.
May 20, 2015 at 00:47
sorry for the inconvenience but what can i do
1) send lettre to kcc explain? or
2)waitting 2NL ?
3)what can i do for correct this misspelling?
May 20, 2015 at 01:43
YOu cannot correct what was in the original entry. You have corrected it in the DS260 – that is all you need to do. Because it is on a derivative it is not serious. RELAX!
May 20, 2015 at 02:04
thank you very match for relaxing us hopefulle you saw some cases had get they CG with these kind of misspelled 🙂
May 20, 2015 at 07:15
HI Brist , thanks for all- How many CAS is between 36500 and 41516,
May 20, 2015 at 17:12
Not that many – but please check the file linked in the article. Your number is safe.
May 20, 2015 at 08:59
hello Brit thanks so much for all your hard work. this has given us hope but you know what you tell us make us feel motivated. my cn is AF689 should i still have hope or give up because to tell you i almost gave up before seeing your publication. please tell me if i have a chance.
May 20, 2015 at 17:36
YOur number is too low to give up totally – but there is only a small chance of getting an interview. Good luck.
May 20, 2015 at 09:21
Hi brit when exactly are u going to post the new predictions for the next VB ?
May 20, 2015 at 17:36
Only after the 2NLs go out – which is in a few days time.
May 20, 2015 at 14:23
Hello thanks for info. Am from Kenya and my number ends with 35XXX . Does this mean I might get July interview
May 20, 2015 at 17:44
May 20, 2015 at 20:10
hi mr Brit i saw you told TADRAK that AF689 he have small chance what about me AF00004XXX?
May 20, 2015 at 20:12
I believe his number was AF689XX. Yours is fine.
May 20, 2015 at 21:01
Hey Brit how are you man..i have a question, my wife won dv lottery 2016 and case number is AF42xxx. when would she be expecting her interview.thanks in advance.
May 20, 2015 at 21:52
Probably about 1 year from now.
May 21, 2015 at 07:12
Hi Brit, Thanks for your info. Am from Kenya, I filled ds260 form yesterday . My number is Af35XXX. Approximately when will I receive 2nl ? Once again thanks a lot
May 21, 2015 at 20:28
DV2016 I assume? So roughly you will wait around 1 year.
May 21, 2015 at 07:35
Britsimon I am waiting for next predictions n more data,thanks for your work
May 21, 2015 at 09:04
hi maggy, r you AF 2015? or 2016 abit concerned
May 21, 2015 at 09:12
Af2016. Should I be worried.
May 21, 2015 at 09:08
Hello Brit can we say AF 71XXX has no hope
May 21, 2015 at 20:25
That is how it looks to me – but obviously someone with that number should watch the VBs to the end….
May 21, 2015 at 09:11
Minagel am Af2016.
May 21, 2015 at 09:51
maggy , i thought you are 2015. 2016 wait.ume fill haraka aje? ulikua na passport?
May 21, 2015 at 10:26
Minagel…I understand now. Yes nilikuwa nayo. Anyway… Will wait
May 21, 2015 at 14:42
if i understood cn AF000532XX have a chance
May 21, 2015 at 19:23
May 21, 2015 at 15:43
Hi Brit, are you having any luck extracting the new data now that the 2NL are being sent? Excited to see your predictions/analysis! Mucho gracias:)
May 21, 2015 at 19:16
The 2NL updates are still not in CEAC
May 21, 2015 at 16:15
May 22, 2015 at 08:11
Hello brit do u think they can do abig jump to be reaching af 58000 in the next VB ?
May 22, 2015 at 14:20
May 22, 2015 at 08:38
Hi Brit, thank you for your entire disponibility. Can i please have the response rate at this date.
May 22, 2015 at 14:19
As of now I do not have the 2nl data from CEAC. When that is available I can calculate the current response rate.
May 22, 2015 at 09:33
maggy, usiandike number zako hapo ukiuliza andika 35xxx usiseme penye unatoka. yours upto next year, relax tu.
May 22, 2015 at 10:28
thanks once again for your effort as usual. we do appreciate your work, you give us hope and keep us informed thanks. just waiting for your predictions sir!
May 22, 2015 at 13:39
hello cn AF490## Save? tank you
May 22, 2015 at 14:02
Did you read the article?
May 22, 2015 at 14:04
yes but a not good undertand,
May 22, 2015 at 14:37
OK – you should be safe.
May 22, 2015 at 14:04
Hi Brit, it’s me once again, Maggy, please delete my post here on African estimate where I wrote my case number in full.
Second I want your opinion, I lived in the u. K from 2001to 2008 then relocated back to Kenya. Now does this mean that I should try to acquire police certificates in both countries.
I read that if you have stayed in any particular country for over 12 months you should aquire police certificate.
May 22, 2015 at 14:40
Yes you need police certs from both countries. I edited your earlier posts.
May 22, 2015 at 15:05
Why are ye not with the owners in 2015, and after you knead measures in 2016 we are waiting for a full year in the hope and now we need this lottery just want to know why not be current this year
May 22, 2015 at 15:54
Not quite clear on your question, but each lottery year has its own period. So – DV2015 will finish on September 30, 2015, and DV2016 will start processing on October 1, 2015 until September 30, 2016. Cases are processed in case number order, as announced by the visa bulletin.
May 22, 2015 at 15:23
I’m really not good i think my life stop here
May 22, 2015 at 15:38
Brit can U pls clarify something quickly, if my CN is posted on here, what harm does it cause for me? Or if I give my case number to some, can they use it against me?
May 22, 2015 at 15:59
Not really an issue. In order to communicate with KCC or open your DS260 someone needs your name, case number and birthdate and possibly your email address.
EVEN if they have all that information there is not too much “harm” they can do with it.
May 22, 2015 at 16:00
Hey Brit , just a simple question , when are you deciding to give us ur next VB predictions ?
May 22, 2015 at 16:53
I am waiting to see the in transit (2NL) update in CEAC. So far, nothing yet.
May 22, 2015 at 16:03
Ok good, thanks for the clarity Brit.
May 22, 2015 at 16:09
Brit I got info from a friend at my country’s embassy that Africa will go current in July for September’s VB. How possible could that be?
May 22, 2015 at 17:02
May 22, 2015 at 16:20
Why do not you work with us we are the owners of 2015 to complement and then you begin with 2016dv our hopes have crashed owners of large numbers we waited a full year
May 22, 2015 at 16:57
My Cn is 2015af61…..did you think that i have chance to getxan interview in septembre?
May 22, 2015 at 17:09
You still have a chance… wait and see…
May 22, 2015 at 17:08
May 22, 2015 at 17:09
I’m really not good i think my life stop here
May 22, 2015 at 18:51
chedda fi allah
May 22, 2015 at 19:20
May 22, 2015 at 21:33
inasmuch as the density of africans winners reduce from 35000,Is this a factor which increase the cut off?
May 22, 2015 at 23:08
I have taken that into account already…
May 23, 2015 at 06:54
My cn Af508xx. Do you think it is save.
May 23, 2015 at 07:21
A great chance…
May 23, 2015 at 16:37
Last year 81 000 as the final cut off.this year could be less. So this year they will certaily exceedd50k. I hope that u confirm that
May 23, 2015 at 17:51
This year can’t get to 81k. The numbers from one year don’t compare to other years.
May 23, 2015 at 07:42
Any luck with the data yet britsimon ?
May 23, 2015 at 09:05
Thank you for your work, but I would like a clarification from you after reading your estimate on Africa. Tell me what you think of probabilities that the final cut Africa reaches 68800.
May 25, 2015 at 00:32
Not very likely – but you will have to wait and see…
May 23, 2015 at 10:46
Please, where can we find officially the visa quotas allocated to Africa for the DV 2015?
I think though that selecting a large number of winners, the State Department knows the consequences this should have on evolution. They are experts in statistics.
After reading the comments that you posted, you Af looks like will remain in the range of 20,500 visas, except of course AOS.
Do you think that the next visa bulletin can bring up a cut-off of 54000 for Africa?
Thank you very much and good weekend.
May 23, 2015 at 18:22
They don’t publish the quota, just the method to calculate the quota.
The next VB won’t reach 54, but hopefully the final vb will.
May 23, 2015 at 11:55
My cn Af520xx. Do you think it is save.
May 23, 2015 at 18:16
A great chance…
May 23, 2015 at 15:05
my case number is 2016AF000285XX, probably when my i get the interview?
May 25, 2015 at 00:33
Early next year. We will know better later
May 23, 2015 at 23:07
My cn AF 57200 do you think it is save pleaz answer me
May 24, 2015 at 00:55
You still have a good chance…
May 24, 2015 at 12:28
brit merci pour ce travaille que tu as fait pour nous. moi et ma femme on a la chance de gagner la dv 2015 mais les cn sont tres ellver moi mon cn 82000 et ma femme 66000 esque on a la chance ou pas . ou bien ce cas il ya l’exception
May 25, 2015 at 00:11
May 25, 2015 at 01:28
yakssen and his wife won the DV2015, his CN is 82000 and his wife CN is 66000, he’s asking about their chances ?
May 25, 2015 at 03:04
Thank you. 82000 has no chance, 66000 still has some chance, wait and see…
May 24, 2015 at 14:40
HI sr My CN is 61 000 of DV 2015 what is your opinion think you for this good job
May 25, 2015 at 00:08
Wait and see…