This post should probably come with a “warning”. In order to understand the points I make in this post you are going to have to exercise your brain. I can’t give nice clean answers to the questions I am being asked and I want to explain why. In my mind I can see reasons why the final number could be anywhere between 55000 and 70000. There are too many factors to be precise – especially as I am trying to predict something that is still over 4.5 months away. No one knows for sure – not even KCC.
So – if you are looking for a nice clear answer – I don’t have one – and you won’t find it in this post. If you are wondering if your AF42XXX number is safe – you don’t need to worry. Likewise, if you still think the number will get to 81000 “because it did last year”, you have not been paying attention to the differences this year. However, there is a big gap in the range I consider to be possible – so let me try and explain why.
After the last VB there are a lot of people wondering what will happen and whether their number is safe. KCC issued a number that was 500 case numbers below my predicted range. That is really a very small number (only 192 cases because of the holes), but still it shows that they either have more backlog cases than I expected OR they did not have enough capacity at the embassy to schedule the 1800 interviews I used in my calculations. To be perfectly honest – I think they were wrong to assign so few cases – if I worked at KCC (as some people suspect I do!) then I would have pushed the number higher – to avoid under allocating or undershooting the monthly issued pace they should be maintaining.
In reality the AF issued number is slightly behind where it should be and the monthly pace is slightly low). They should be issuing about 10% of the annual quota of visas per month at this point – so that would be 2000. They are just slightly under that number. I suspect there are more no shows than they expect due to the DS260 form. They have stated their is more response than they expected but the ability to fill in a form online with no cost for postage has probably made some people submit the form that would not have submitted in previous years. However, someone in that position is likely to not even show up for their interview given the expenses involved. So – with that in mind I would have encouraged KCC to schedule a few extra interviews.
OK so back to the estimate. In my earlier estimate post I explained the position as I saw things then and explained the pace. I reasoned that the issued number at the end of June should be 13000. However, since KCC seem to be under issuing below the 2000/month case the numbers are tracking a bit lower than that. They issued 1842 in April and unless they have an amazing 2 weeks they will undershoot in May too. Apply that assumption to June and we could be just over 12000 at the end of June instead of the 13000 I predicted.
Now, once we see the 2NLs we will know that the July interview numbers will be. If they are much less than 1800 I would start to suspect that July will undershoot too – to let’s assume we get to 14000 by the end of July (which equates to the 36500 VB number). The highest quota we can predict for AF region is 22000. That quota is based on a global quota of over 52000 – which is an optimistic view given the number is supposed to end at 50000. But some of those 22000 will be taken by AoS cases (which do not show in CEAC) – so in CEAC we will only see a max of 21000, possibly 20500. For a bit of wiggle room – let’s work on 20500. That would mean at the end of July we will have 6500 visas remaining. Remember they don’t HAVE to hit that target – they would consider their job was successful if the global number only hit 50000 – so we might see less than 20000 in CEAC.
OK – so how can we estimate how many cases are needed to fill that 6500 remaining visas.
First not every case responds, or might have responded but their DS260 is not processed. So – if the VB went up by 1000 (FOR EXAMPLE) you had the next 1000 cases only 530 of those would be ready for scheduling.
Then there is the approval rate. Approval rates vary greatly by embassy – but we could assume an average rate of around 65%.
Then you have to know the derivative rate. The number of family members per case has risen dramatically during the DV year (which has been a large factor in reducing the high number. To explain – AF had 58000 selectees and there were 39266 cases in CEAC. That means there were 1.51 people per case. If you check the CEAC data now for scheduled cases there are 1.86 family members per case in AF region – a 23% increase. That is people who married after their win, babies being born etc. This is a HUGE factor that we have never been able to measure before. It is like saying the 58000 became more than 71000!
So anyway – let us assume they had 6500 visas left at the end of July (36500).
OK, 6500 divided by the new derivative rate (1.86) is 3495 cases.
Those cases must be approved so divide those by the approval rate of 65% – you get 5376.
Those 5376 cases have to have responded and that rate is growing but let us assume it is the current 53% so you divide by that number 5376/.53 = 10143.
So then you need to count 10143 cases above 36500 and if you check the link below that CEAC extract has every case number up to 89799. 10143 cases comes out to number 66958. That is (in my mind) a THEORETICAL MAXIMUM case number that could be reached and I increase that in my own mind for a bit of wiggle room. However, it is unlikely to be reached. Why?
Some of the visas in August and July WILL go to backlog cases (cases under 36500 that were late submissions) and also AP cases that resolve at that time. So – even though there might be 6500 visas available – they really are not all available for cases above 36500. Based on what we have seen so far, we could see 1000 to 2000 of those 6500 go to backlog/AP cases. So – our number is likely to be lower than the 66958 number – and that is one reason for my uncertainty in my answers when people ask if they are safe. There could be a big drop lower than the 66958. For this reason when someone at 75XXX asks me I am now starting to say I think their number is too high. If they ask at 65XXX all I can say is what many have seen from me recently – “wait and see”. If your number is in the 60’s you really can’t give up – you just have to wait until the VB published in July.
Now there is another problem. My numbers do not take in to account embassy capacity. If KCC keep on their conservative VB for August, they will be leaving a lot of interviews to be scheduled in September. The embassies do not unlimited capacity for DV cases so it won’t be possible to get to the highest numbers – no matter what the theoretical maximum says. In that case, the final VB will be limited by embassy capacity and the AF quota would not all be used. So – when the last VB was released at 500 less than my minimum it was a disappointment because it shows they are not doing what they need to do to avoid leaving too much work until the last minute. So for me, while I can still make a mathematical case that 60000 should be safe, capacity issues could threaten even that number – which is why my wait and see response starts at around 55000.
Now I know this post will prompt a lot of questions of “what about my number”. I am hoping people will read this article properly and not swamp me with those questions – and if your number is 55XXX to 69XXX you are going to get this exact response – “wait and see”.
I am getting lots of questions of how many cases between 36500 and XXX number. The complete set of numbers can be seen through this post
– please check that yourselves to avoid me doing all that extra work and you waiting for me….
Once the 2NLs are released I will post a prediction for numbers for the next VB. The CEAC data just after the 2NLs has some data we need to plug in to these estimates – so look out for that in about 1 week from now.
Africa estimate update
May 24, 2015 at 21:08
Hello britsimon my friend won dv 2016 she filled the Ds 260 Bt didnt fill her previous educational background but only mentioned her present institute she’s studying bsc there,will that be a problem at the embassy?
May 25, 2015 at 00:02
She should unlock the form and add the qualifying education…. elementary and secondary level.
May 25, 2015 at 09:23
Ok thanks but her brother who filled the form is refusing she don’t unlock it,I dont know why but he’s not letting her do it,so if she takes all ger secondary and high school certificates for interview will it complicate issues for her or lead to denial????
May 26, 2015 at 15:24
She adds to the risk by not unlocking.
May 24, 2015 at 23:13
what about next visa bultin sir ?
whare is your estimateur for next visa bultin
May 25, 2015 at 00:34
I have not yet seen the 2NL update in the CEAC data – so a few days,,,
May 25, 2015 at 19:20
Hi, Friend I have a nagging question. On my EDV form, I filled three names, but my birth certificate and passport, I have four names. Will it be okay if I add the fourth name on the ds260, and on which column on the ds260, cause there is -full name in native language column and other names used Column. Hope this doesn’t bring problems at interview next year
Thanks a lot,…
May 26, 2015 at 15:09
Yes add the full name on the DS260.
May 26, 2015 at 14:55
if i understood cn AF000728
XX have a chance
May 26, 2015 at 15:31
Almost no chance. I’m sorry.
May 26, 2015 at 17:29
HELLO HOW YOU, BROTHER BRITSIMON I APPRECIATE YOUR GOOD JOB I WANT ASK YOU ABOUT MY CASE NUMBER DO U HAVE A CHANCE OR NO 2015AF00053*** THANK YOU SO MUCH YOUR REPLAY ME GOD BLESS U AMERICA AND YOU ALSO MORE!!!
May 26, 2015 at 21:08
You still should have a good chance.
May 27, 2015 at 05:52
hi ,,, my case number is Af66xxx, i still have some hope but do you think i still have chance ??!!
May 27, 2015 at 06:30
Some small chance, yes
May 27, 2015 at 09:06
if there will be cut of in last months for eqypt , Ethiopia and Nigiria is it going to reflect on Africa CN then it will jump to hight numbers
May 27, 2015 at 15:11
That is already accounted for…
May 27, 2015 at 09:10
Hi brit, m’y CN is AF65xxx, do You think i still have chance??!!!.
May 27, 2015 at 15:09
You can only wait and see….
May 27, 2015 at 14:32
Hi Britsimon, Thanks a million for the Hard work, Is 2015AF000489xx a safe and when for interview?
May 27, 2015 at 15:14
Yes safe. September.
May 27, 2015 at 14:49
Hi Britsimon, It is possible that the next VB could reach 49000 for Africa Region?
May 27, 2015 at 15:14
May 27, 2015 at 15:31
Hi Brit, obvioulsy still no CEAC updates yet! I think you should take up their offer and get these people moving:)
May 27, 2015 at 16:09
They are doing things really SLOW this month…
May 27, 2015 at 16:31
Maybe they just started to figure out the mess in AF region with the no shows and they try to figure out how to solve it !!
May 27, 2015 at 19:03
IT is very simple – they need to schedule extra interviews – say 2000 instead of 1750….
May 27, 2015 at 15:38
What is chance that af 42xxx is current next bulletin..for August interview
May 27, 2015 at 16:09
wait and see
May 27, 2015 at 17:41
M. Brit what about mon case AF62XXX can i have a chance thank you
May 27, 2015 at 19:07
THat number still has a chance – wait and see!
May 27, 2015 at 19:31
sometimes i ‘m confused!!!
you say AF66k has a small chance and AF62k has to wait and see.
we don’t know if we finally be optimistic or not but thank you for trying to assure us!!!
still waiting for your predictions..
May 27, 2015 at 19:45
Wow – some people really analyze my every word. Eeek!
A “small chance” means a chance less than 100% and more than 0%. Given I said small it shows I think 66XXX is riskier than 62XXX. That is obvious – right?
So – as I said in the article above everyone from 55XXX to 69XXX really needs to “wait and see”, but chances reduce as numbers go higher.
May 28, 2015 at 19:11
thanks once more for explanations!!
May 28, 2015 at 08:29
Hello just seen your blog , i love it very informative, i didn’t have any clue on case numbers.I thought so long as you win, its express ticket. . Am 2016 Af 36xxx. Considering nigeria is out, can you say this number is high case number, And next year what are the chances of getting to interview, is it like a 50/50 chance. And keep work with the good work.
May 28, 2015 at 09:00
can i also communicate with you through email., what’s your email add.
May 28, 2015 at 15:17
britsimon3 at gmail
May 28, 2015 at 15:18
That number is fine. 100% chance of getting an interview.
May 28, 2015 at 15:24
I didn’t get your answer on this. My CN. 2016Af 36xxx, considering Nigeria was out, is this a high case number for next year. Can you predict chances of making it to interview
May 28, 2015 at 15:43
It is not a high case number – 100% safe.
May 28, 2015 at 15:49
Thanks.. Will patiently wait. Thanks for email address. Very helpful info.
May 28, 2015 at 21:09
Hi Britsimonsays… please analyse CN AF56*** for 2016…..
May 28, 2015 at 22:55
WE don’t yet have enough data to be sure about that number. You need to wait for a few months to know your chances.
May 29, 2015 at 07:06
when will you reallease the estimate for the next VB ??
May 29, 2015 at 22:11
I will post something in the next few days – but without the 2NL data it is a more inaccurate estimate.
May 29, 2015 at 08:04
Hi BB Simon.i think your are fine. Tell me please as lot of people don’t have Thier 2nd letters ,it can negativly affect the rest of VB or thé most big CN for current? Escuse me for mi english.CN 2015af432xx.can the nex VB ritch this CN?
May 29, 2015 at 22:08
THe 2NL issue cannot affect the VB progress. Your number might be current for August interview – I’m not sure. If not – it is safe to be processed by September.
May 29, 2015 at 18:40
Is cn af507xx safe. Will it be in sept.
May 29, 2015 at 21:19
Yes safe, yes, in September
May 29, 2015 at 22:11
DV 2015 —39022 Is there any chance in the month 8 ,,,,,??
May 29, 2015 at 22:12
May 30, 2015 at 06:09
Hi sir bri,
What do you think of this situation 2NL that is slow to fall? is what kcc is not a little overwhelmed? you think they will continue to make interviez in the embassy after July ? You already have the odds the next VB please ?
Please what do you think of my AF CN 582xx?
Have a nice week
May 30, 2015 at 06:11
I think they have some technical problems.
Your number is not 100% safe but has a good chance….
Wait and see…
May 30, 2015 at 07:56
Hi britsimon, how come you are not using Adsense ads? You should have, for the great work you doing.
May 30, 2015 at 08:21
Is cn Af508xx safe. Will my interview be in september.pls tell me becuz i’m a bit worry.
May 30, 2015 at 16:55
May 30, 2015 at 16:11
Hi Britsimon, i hope you are fine. Just to know if i can get tne response rate and the remaining visas at this date. Thanks
May 30, 2015 at 16:19
I just published the latest data here:-
May 30, 2015 at 16:21
hi mr brit simon what is your email
May 30, 2015 at 17:20
britsimon3 at gmail
May 30, 2015 at 16:31
Mr brit simon
at beginning i want to thank you for your amazing work , you are a great person ,and it is my pleasure to know you and i would like to be always to be in contact with you, i have 2 question :
1- me and my wife lived in 5 countries since we were 16 years old more than one years except one contry less than one year do we need a police record from each country that we lived in .
2-my CN is 2016AF00028xxx is it safe number.
thank you for taking in reading my question
my best regards
May 30, 2015 at 17:19
1. Yes police certs from each of those foreign countries where you lived for more than 1 year.
2. We don’t know all the AF numbers yet – but I would guess yours MUST be safe, yes.
I am sure we will get to know each other better over the next year of your Green Card journey!
May 31, 2015 at 06:09
Britsimon thanks for the data,kcc really has IT issues,well so when will you predict for August? Or u wont? With all this IT issues I get nervous itl cause another slow move of the bulletin,what kcc is doing is not good
May 31, 2015 at 06:18
Hopfully if AF get another 7500 to 8000 Visa , in this case what will be the Maximum CN will rich ?
also do you think the embassies will be able to proceed all this number ??
Thanks in advance
May 31, 2015 at 16:02
I’m not sure on the final numbers yet. KCC will do what they can to fill the quota.
May 31, 2015 at 16:08
Without the 2nl data my predictions will be inaccurate.
June 1, 2015 at 10:54
Hi Brit do you think the KCC can reach 53xxxx for the following VB
June 1, 2015 at 19:07
Not for the next VB – but for September interviews, yes.
June 1, 2015 at 11:41
Hello Sir, Just going through the visa bulletin for A.F and noted that from 2009 and 2013 all years went current. Last year upto 81100. But this year for A.F seems really bad progress, I doubt if it will be current, for this year. What could be the cause of this, does this mean now for Dv2016 the trend will be the same for A.F…
June 1, 2015 at 15:27
DV2014 and DV2015 we massively over selected. DV2016 is less overselected, so whilst no regions will go current ion DV2015, some might in DV2016. AF is still a little high in DV2016 – so that is the region least likely to go current.
June 1, 2015 at 19:12
if AF get lucky and there will be more 8000 visa will be issue . do you think it will hit 70xxx ??
June 1, 2015 at 19:22
I cannot see it hitting 70XXX
June 1, 2015 at 20:04
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT af 610XX,,
sorry for multiple question about same subject
June 1, 2015 at 21:10
Still “wait and see”
July 20, 2015 at 06:37
Dear Mr Simon,
I want to thank you for your help.i just saw the cut off number for Africa in September 2015 to be 50.000. My friends number is 2015 AF56811.does she have any chance?
July 20, 2015 at 13:02
June 1, 2015 at 20:06
it’s just because we are worry about each of our case!!!
June 1, 2015 at 21:11
Of course – I understand – I was in those same shoes last year.
June 2, 2015 at 14:02
hello Brit, can u plz tell me if this number is safe 600XX?
June 3, 2015 at 01:34
DV2015 and AF I assume. If yes then no the number is safe, but has a chance still – wait and see,……
June 2, 2015 at 15:22
Thanks Brit,do you believe DS260 Forms for 2016 winners have started to be treated?
June 3, 2015 at 01:31
June 2, 2015 at 16:54
what will be the end of the response that someone who won DV lottery 2015 i mean what will be the dead line date?
June 2, 2015 at 22:28
The September interview will be scheduled in late July and No DV2015 visas can be issued past SEptember 30.
June 2, 2015 at 17:03
thanks for this opportunity britsimon, what i want to ask is that will there be a problem if some one who won Dv lottery 2015 only finishing grade 10 and is a must to finish grade 12 or is it ruled by the countries teaching curriculum please i really want an answer. Thanks.
June 2, 2015 at 22:28
That will probably be a problem. Read this – https://britsimonsays.com/education-or-work-experience-qualifying-for-the-dv-lottery/
June 2, 2015 at 19:41
my cn is AF 78 have chance?
June 2, 2015 at 21:25
Are you talking about DV2015? Do you mean AF78XXX?
If yes for both those questions – I am afraid not. Your number is too high.
June 3, 2015 at 20:28
Simon, so you mean that no need of people in AF66xxx waste their time on checking the VB, cuz there is no way kcc will reach such a # since it is impossible for kcc to add AF30xxx on the AF36500?
June 3, 2015 at 20:43
I’m not saying people should not ” waste their time on checking the VB” but people should be understanding of the process and understand their realistic chances….
June 3, 2015 at 20:39
Simon, kindly tell me the 10000 visa for AF can be distributed to how many cases? Incase kcc update 5000 for AF in August those people have their wives and children meaning that people in AF66xxx need not to check the last vb
June 3, 2015 at 20:41
Well that is sort of the issue – BUT you are forgetting that there are holes between the cases, and that not every cases responds. But yes – AF66XXX is quite risky.
June 3, 2015 at 20:42
Kindly tell me 2014 and 2015 which year had the higher density?
June 3, 2015 at 21:06
THat is region specific but in general, 2015
June 4, 2015 at 06:40
Simon, due to the high density in 2015 that is why kcc will not reach AF65xxx this year? What kcc going to do with those refuse visa?
June 4, 2015 at 06:47
Kindly tell me how many refuse visa in total from those 4 west AF countries, Ghana, Liberia, Freetown, & Guinea?
June 4, 2015 at 12:49
my cn is AF 616 have chance?
June 4, 2015 at 20:40
I can’t be certain – you must wait and see
June 4, 2015 at 12:55
hi how cn earning between 37500 and 616xxx?
June 4, 2015 at 20:39
Please check the full file from Jan 1.
June 4, 2015 at 14:53
Hallo Mr.Simon my name is MJ I had won dv 2016 with CN the 2016AF75++ and submitted ds 260 on the 18th of May my interview will be in Cairo and I’m from sudan my age is 20 and I am unemployed but I have high school diploma of course it’s my information no wife no children….
This is my questions for you.
Should I contact kcc after 20 days tell them that I’m waiting for the second letter ( notify) ?
In which month do you expect my interview will be?
and i like to knew how good is my chance?
Can I have my health exam in Cairo?
I feel my processing time shouldn’t have long time that my secret to be very exciting
June 4, 2015 at 19:03
THey know you are waiting for the 2NL, no need to tell them.
Probably around December interview.
Your interview is certain. Your chance of approval depends on your case – I don’t know anything about your case.
You must have the medical at the embassy approved physician.
June 6, 2015 at 16:24
My cases number is 2015 AF 3902* ? Have a great chance to get my interview in août ??
June 6, 2015 at 20:02
June 6, 2015 at 21:47
if my CN AF66xxx still has even small chance, wt will be the needed scenario in the next VB ??
June 6, 2015 at 22:36
To even have a chance we will need to see number quite well above my estimate of 44000
June 7, 2015 at 16:29
When will be interview?
June 7, 2015 at 16:39
Most likely August
June 7, 2015 at 17:03
hi … did you make any prediction vor next VB,,,,, tnx
June 7, 2015 at 17:16
June 7, 2015 at 19:40
The upcoming visa bulletin will it cover months of August and September for dv lottery. Will it be out on 10th
June 10, 2015 at 06:18
Hi.mr brit.i am one of those waitng 2NL.actually my family are died but in the Ds 260 i have filled wrong date and year of theire died. So does it affect my process.thanks for your cooperation.
June 10, 2015 at 06:26
No it probably won’t affect your process.
June 11, 2015 at 11:20
My cn is 72200 i have chance
June 11, 2015 at 19:29
I don’t think so…. 🙁
June 11, 2015 at 12:36
mon cn est 66000 qelle chance
June 11, 2015 at 19:22
Not much chance at all.
June 12, 2015 at 01:02
my case AF 63000 have a chance ??
June 12, 2015 at 01:22
June 12, 2015 at 22:18
to feel the quate for AF which is the remaining i belive its close to 9000 visa , will the emassies could be able to perform all this interview in next three month ?and do you think case number will hit 65xxx and abote
June 12, 2015 at 23:13
September 11, 2015 at 00:21
Hi britsimon pls tell me if be any VB for September in Liberia
September 11, 2015 at 00:24
The VB is by region – and it was published a couple of days ago.