April 2NL analysis
OK – so we have an update of the CEAC data, but I was able to grab all the data a few hours after the “In Transit” update to the data. What does “In Transit” mean – that status is the point when KCC updates the status on cases that just received the 2NL and it is before the embassy “accepts” or receives the case (when the case will show as ready). Once the embassies accept the case we can see where the 2NLs have gone – but at this point we can see the number of 2NLs per region. So – first of all – let’s see how many 2NLS were sent by region – and my estimation of how many selectees that represents (with derivatives). Also – I have added some columns showing how many of these cases came from cases that were current before the April VB increase, and how many are current from the new range of cases current in April. This is important as it gives a clue of how many cases are still not processed.
When KCC set the VB numbers they already know exactly how many cases have completed their DS260 processing and are current – so when they chose the VB numbers they very deliberately chose to schedule this number of interviews – 3482 globally. I’ll be doing some comparisons to last month – but that looks like where they want to be.
However, you can see that in Africa for instance only 376 cases are April numbers – 1256 are cases that were already current but only just completed their DS260 processing. We also know now that those cases we submitted (mostly) during September (October 5 is the latest submission date I have seen – and would be very interested if you know different).
So – Africa could not increase very many cases in the last VB because 1256 cases were already current and processed when they decided how many cases to increase AF in the VB. This is higher than other regions and supports my hypothesis that the AF VB number started higher than KCC would have liked and the late submissions could keep the jumps lower for a couple more months at least.
The data itself is available in my latest CEAC data update.
So – what does this mean for the next Visa Bulletin?
I am assuming that KCC will ant to increase the interviews a little. The issued visas are behind the targets I would expect, so I am going to assume next month they will want to schedule slightly more interviews than this month. To predict the VB progress we simply have to guess whether the cases will come from new numbers or old numbers (old meaning cases that are already current before the new VB is released.
Comparing AF to the other regions we can see that this issue is not so pronounced in other regions as it is in AF. Given the large number of current cases still showing “at NVC” for AF region (13020 out of 20485 cases current), we can expect the same scenario next month. That means the VB increase will be low again – perhaps around 34XXX to 35XXX. I had previously been expecting up to around 37XXX. Increasing to 34000 for example would make 1203 cases current and around 500 of those will have completed DS260 processing based on progress so far. It is reasonable to assume they will pick up at least 1000 processed cases from AF from cases under 30700. So – let’s assume they want to interview 2000 cases for AF (which is more than they chose to interview this month) – they could easily get that many cases without going over 36000 (1952 cases between 30700 and 35999).
EU had about an equal split between “old” cases and “new” cases this month. They have 10326 cases “at NVC” still out of 15962 current cases. It is likely that they will continue to get around half of their interviews from “old” cases next month, and if we assume they will need around 1500 interviews, we only need to see 750 or so come from new case numbers. Using the same logic as above, that could be done with a VB number of 32XXX to 33XXX.
AS seems to have had less problem with the DS260 submission. I think that is largely due to the large agencies in Nepal who probably achieved most submissions early. Out of the 4470 cases already current, only 1794 are still “at NVC” and most of the interviews for May will come from new cases. If we assume that they will want to interview 450 cases – I would expect 300 to come from new cases. Using the same logic as above I expect the VB for AS to increase to 53XX to 54XX.
SA has 571 out of 957 cases at NVC. Again, they seem to have taken about half their cases from old cases, and will probably need about 50 new cases next month. That should need a VB of 1100 to 1150.
OC have 563 cases at NVC out of 907. I expect that to mean a VB number between 1050 and 1100.
OK – so those are my predictions for May interviews. I have said before I grew to hate doing predictions because people connect inaccuracy on the monthly predictions with cluelessness on the final numbers (which are more significant/important in my opinion. However, I did these predictions last month and was pretty accurate and I feel that we have so much better understanding now with the increased amount of data we are getting from CEAC that we can be pretty comfortable with these predictions. However there are still many unkowns and we will see some more twists and turns before the year is done.
But to be clear my predictions for the next VB (May interviews) are:-
AF – 34XXX to 35XXX.
EU – 32XXX to 33XXX.
AS – 53XX to 54XX.
SA – 1100 to 1150.
OC – 1050 and 1100.
Enjoy the read – and please remember to like my Facebook page or subscribe to this site to make sure you get all the updates as I make them.
April 2NL analysis
February 26, 2015 at 00:50
Yayyyy predictions!!! Thans as always Simon. Good jobz.
February 26, 2015 at 00:52
Predictions are something like catching a bullet fired fro an AK47 – but the public want predictions – and who am I to withhold my thoughts! 😉
March 11, 2015 at 11:52
My CN is Af7×××, I submitted my visa application forms on the before 9th of Feb 2015. When will my 2nl be received.m
March 11, 2015 at 15:41
Probably in June or July for an August or September interview.
February 26, 2015 at 00:54
Simon we need an edit button on the comments for when my phone decides to speak slang like it did on my previous post. Sorry about that 🙂
February 26, 2015 at 10:53
This cracked me up more than it should :’), but agreed, an edit button would be nice!
February 27, 2015 at 20:50
lol. this is not possible in WordPress ( possible for admins only ).. but, if all comment authors were logged-in users, then, it would be possible to let them do that.
Solution: don’t hit the submit button until you verify what you’re submitting 😎
February 26, 2015 at 02:54
Asia 53xx to 54xx, wtf?
It’s getting slower and slower every month, last year it was 6400, i seriously doubt as will hit the same number as last year, probably 11,xxx
This must be the worst fiscal year for Asia
February 26, 2015 at 03:54
Well my prediction might be wrong – but yes if Nepal continues until August there is less time for the Rest of Asia – although AS could have a good month in September.
February 26, 2015 at 12:13
Please stop nepal in June please kcc, they take too many visas, so unfair, I wish i was Nepalese
February 26, 2015 at 14:34
I have explained before, Nepalese selectees have a lower chance of being winners, so no, it is not unfair they get more than everyone else, it us simply because more of them enter the lottery.
February 26, 2015 at 04:52
I wander if the AF63000 will ever be current . Especially with completion ans submission of Ds260 in early February..
February 26, 2015 at 06:29
I think it will be OK.
February 26, 2015 at 07:18
What does the 2nd letter say? does it provide an exact interview date or basically informs the selectee that he could pick a date whenever he wants ?
The reason i’m asking is to understand if KCC are taking into account no shows.
Having the DS260 online form will make more people submit it but many will drop later I guess due to the cost.
February 26, 2015 at 07:23
The 2NL is an email telling the applicant to check the ESC site. There they see an appointment letter with precise date and time. KCC make allowance for no shows and denials etc.
February 26, 2015 at 07:40
Can you have predictions for next vb for countries with specfic cut off numbers like egypt .. Even an estimate or a guess??? Do you expect egyp to jump above 22xxx or keep a slow pogress like rest of africa ?
February 26, 2015 at 08:05
No I have not looked at those countries….
February 26, 2015 at 09:03
Thanks a lot Mr Britsimon. But could you Have a look
@ Egypt. your Help will be appreciated
February 26, 2015 at 14:29
As a quick guess, Egypt will go to around 21000 +/- 1000
February 26, 2015 at 10:30
Can you please give a look for Egypt
February 26, 2015 at 14:29
As a quick guess, Egypt will go to around 21000 +/- 1000
February 26, 2015 at 10:46
thx a lot Brit Simon i was disappointed this month cuz i was expecting my 2nl and i didn’t get it . even i get email from KCC in 6 feb that say “Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review” but my date of submition is 15 octobre and CN is 22XXX so i think the new system is too slow and i hope it will be fast next month .thank you Brit Simon i enjoy reading all your post i wish u all the best 🙂
February 26, 2015 at 14:31
If your firms were not completed by Feb 1 then you were left out until the next month. So, your forms completed between Feb 1 and Feb 6
February 27, 2015 at 09:00
If 15 October was processed on Feb 6, is there a possibility them to arrive at first a couple days of Nov? According to you Simon, today is the last day of determining the May interviews. If i get may interview, it will be a miracle.
February 27, 2015 at 14:45
I hope they will schedule at least some November entries for May interviews.
March 31, 2015 at 05:57
Your guess was great ,sir AWESOME!
and hey what did u mean by ‘November entries’ .. as in the very first entry for the DV Lottery !?
March 31, 2015 at 17:03
I’m not sure of the context where I said “November entries”
February 26, 2015 at 15:06
February 26, 2015 at 19:40
Can you make corrections in the dv application after you receive your 2NL.If yes will it affect your chances in getting a visa?
February 26, 2015 at 22:40
You can not make changes to your original entry no. However, you can enter corrected data on the DS260 – and in some cases that information could help avoid denial.
February 27, 2015 at 04:02
Africa, Asia, Oceania, South America, in September will be broken on the rocks Kutta-offs. Europe because of the slowness of people sending forms can give a chance to all the big numbers. Therefore, in September will kurrent, but there will be many people who get on the head for his tardiness. And I think this is correct. But Kentucky may at any time change the game.
February 27, 2015 at 05:55
Yeah, maybe. We will see…
February 27, 2015 at 10:57
What do you mean by “changing the game by Kentucky”?
February 27, 2015 at 20:59
I think he meant it is up to KCC to speed up the process anytime.. or he was talking about Cut Offs release in bulletins ( like he said, EU might be Current in the last month, so everyone will have an interview ) ..
February 27, 2015 at 21:17
Thanks, Samuel, for clarification! let’s wait and see what will happen..
February 27, 2015 at 04:46
My case number is 2015AS139xx. …as you notice it is a big number. ….and my wife will deliver my baby at the end of the next July. …according to this information, should I contact the kcc to open my ds260 again after delivery of my baby? Or just take him to interview without any further processing?
I assumes that my interview will be on September
February 27, 2015 at 06:03
Well given the timing you would have no choice about how to add the child, you would have to add the child at the embassy.
However, your number is probably too high to get an interview. I’m sorry.
February 27, 2015 at 16:11
what about me ? AS136XX. I guess i should prepare for the worst shouldn’t i ?
February 27, 2015 at 17:21
Yes – prepare for the worst – but keep some hope for the best….
February 27, 2015 at 17:55
there’s no way they’re gonna reach that number given the montly VB pace, heck they’re not even gonna make it past 11,000.
February 27, 2015 at 06:42
I have contacted KCC to ask regarding my DS-260 processing, my CN is AS54xx and the told me my forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing.
That means they have completed processing, as I have submitted my form initially on 19th May’14 and asked them to unlock and re-submitted on 17th Dec’14.
That might be a good news 🙂 what do you think !!?
February 27, 2015 at 08:53
No most probably, you have made minor changes when you unlocked it so it did not affect your first submission date. It does not mean to be arrived at December.
February 27, 2015 at 09:27
Yes, you’re right!
I have made slight changes in the form. But – I didn’t expect that they have completed the processing.
Most likely – perhaps my CN will be current in the next VB based on this April 2NL analysis.
February 27, 2015 at 14:41
So that means the firms are completed, and you will be scheduled once your case number is current, which will be either next month, or the month after.
February 27, 2015 at 17:10
sure, we will wait for April VB to be released
February 27, 2015 at 08:05
My case number is 2015AS111**
What do you think Will I get chance to get interview or not?
Because I don’t know why As is very slow ?
February 27, 2015 at 14:42
You might get a chance yes. You will have to wait to see the VB of July (September interview)
February 27, 2015 at 08:21
I was talking of the DS260 I made some errors but I have already sent it and was asking as to whether I could update it after I recieve the 2NL. I tried to update but couldn’t edit the application.
February 27, 2015 at 14:43
Once the 2nl is sent you cannot unlock the form. You then have to make corrections if needed at the interview.
February 27, 2015 at 17:43
Hello Brit, how are you doing
Can I know what to do next after receiving the 2NL?
Should I go to ( ustravel docs . com ) and create an account?
or must I contact the embassy to confirm the interview date and time?
And if the 2NL says that the date: is xx April , time is: 11:00 AM, so how earlier you advice me to be there?
February 27, 2015 at 17:45
There are instructions for each embassy (most of them) on the dvselectee site – make sure you read that and follow those instructions.
February 27, 2015 at 17:55
I really did .. but i did not find that I have to login anywhere or to create any account, but some people says I should
Have you got any idea about that ?
February 27, 2015 at 18:53
No – I did not have to do that…
February 28, 2015 at 05:52
hello sir i have a problem with my birth day that mean 2 day difference. on my passport 25 august 1990 but on dv 23 august 1990 what shall i do? but all document are based on dv except passport.
February 28, 2015 at 06:53
All you can do is make sure it is correct in the DS260. Then, just hope the CO is understanding.
February 28, 2015 at 08:50
I got my second letter, but I am not happy
My interview scheduled on 1st of April
But I am from Libya, my interview in Morocco, because of new stupid situation I need Visa to go to Morocco
Please can i change the place of interview
February 28, 2015 at 15:50
Once you are scheduled, KCC don’t normally handle any rescheduling – it is done by the embassies themselves. The embassies will not always accept cases passed to them by other embassies without previously agreeing the change. So – you would have to arrange with a new embassy then contact Morocco embassy. It is complex, and it will certainly cause delay. If you can get a visa to Morocco and keep the appointment that would be best.
February 28, 2015 at 22:01
When is the sponsor contacted. Is it before 2NL or after
I have an interview date at April 28 but struggling to contact my sponsor, can I change now?
February 28, 2015 at 23:12
The sponsor isn’t normally contacted, but you can change details at the interview.
March 1, 2015 at 02:06
Hello there, with this slow pace of VB-2015, when do you think a person with AS 6700 will get the interview? Thanks.
March 1, 2015 at 02:44
June or July.
March 1, 2015 at 07:22
MY CN is AS81**,when can i expect my interview ?
March 1, 2015 at 15:06
August or September
March 1, 2015 at 11:03
Scary analysis for asia again…..can we (nepal)be still sure of reaching upto 8500 case number as u previously predicted..or now less then this?
March 1, 2015 at 15:05
Nothing can be for sure, but I think it will still go as high as I previously said.
March 1, 2015 at 17:50
What is your prediction for EU cutoff in September considering the new CEAC data?
March 1, 2015 at 18:42
My prediction is unchanged at the moment- I expect it to be around 40k +/-1000
March 2, 2015 at 05:56
March 1, 2015 at 19:36
I submitted DS260 in mid october, and my case number is EU18***. Should I be expecting May or June interview? Is there a danger that green cards run out before my interview time.
March 2, 2015 at 00:51
Probably May interview and no, GC spaces won’t run out until September.
March 2, 2015 at 12:32
dear BritSimon , what you say about AS592x? 2nd L,interview ?upper limit and lower limit for interview?
March 2, 2015 at 14:31
June most likely.
March 2, 2015 at 16:55
Good Job Brit 😉 Thanks a lot
March 3, 2015 at 12:03
Hi, congratulations on your blog! What do you think about EU407xx, is there any hope for me? Thanks a lot and keep the good work mate!
March 3, 2015 at 15:14
It is in the risky range, but you have a chance.
March 11, 2015 at 14:28
I submitted DS260 in late october, and my case number is AF5***. When do you think my 2Nl will be coming?
March 11, 2015 at 15:45
Probably in the next batch of 2NLs for May interviews (2NL in about 2 weeks from now)
March 12, 2015 at 08:15
Salut M Simon Vraiment je ai eu peur Quand je ai vu la publication du visa de bulletin d’avril. Numéro d’affaire Mon AF624xx Est. Est-ce que je en Peux Espérer Une chance d’Avoir entretien avec cette allure ??? Merci Que Dieu vous bénisse
March 12, 2015 at 16:34
You stand a good chance with that number.
March 12, 2015 at 13:03
MR BRiSTS Simon The guy above asking if his case number AF624xx will make it ? Sorry bro you need to learn English ..For science sake There is Google translate why not use it to communicate ?
March 12, 2015 at 16:40
LOL – thanks I speak a little French so I got it, but prefer English of course! 😉
March 12, 2015 at 16:16
good eveningdear simon my cn is 6859x is what I have a chance to have my interview?
March 12, 2015 at 16:43
You have a chance, just not 100% safe.
March 12, 2015 at 19:17
What can you predict for June visa bulletin??? Or is it too early to start predicting?????
March 12, 2015 at 19:51
March 13, 2015 at 02:23
hi my case no is AS8500to8600 Nepal so I have. chance or not.
March 13, 2015 at 03:56
You still have a small chance….
March 13, 2015 at 07:01
dear simon my cn is AF6910x what I have a chance to have my interview?
March 13, 2015 at 15:32
Yes you still have a chance – good luck!
March 13, 2015 at 10:18
hello Brit simon I like to know you anticipate in which months I would get an interview !! My CN AF49XXX ???? I finished filling my DS on 1 August !!! my case is a bit complex I e BT and not the BAC again !! I spend IBC this year I worked for over 3 years now is it possible you too to be qualified without the BAC for me ?????
March 13, 2015 at 15:40
Maybe July/August interview. IBC and BAC are not terms I recognize – the world is a big place.
March 14, 2015 at 20:42
HI Britsimons,I am from Ethiopia and my CN is AF268xx when will be the interview date? Completed my DS260 on May 2014.
March 15, 2015 at 02:51
June most likely.
March 15, 2015 at 22:20
Am ask about case AF63*** there is chance and I submit my ds260 on July
March 15, 2015 at 23:27
There is a good chance…
March 16, 2015 at 05:11
Hi I am from nepal my number is in between 8100 to 8200 ..do I have chance ? If yes what would be the month ? Thank you in advance .
March 16, 2015 at 14:09
Yes you still have some chance, but some risk. If you get current it will mean an August interview.
March 16, 2015 at 15:49
March 25, 2015 at 04:47
hello simon my number is 8300 8400 from nepal what is the chances
March 25, 2015 at 05:00
A bit risky, but still some chance…