OK – so along the same idea as the Africa example, I wanted to publish some thoughts on what is happening/will happen in Asia.

From the extract I posted on Friday there is some interesting data.

First – Nepal.

The file shows KDU embassy have issued about 200 visas since the beginning of the month – which is pretty amazing given they were closed for the first week of the month due to the earthquake. It seems like KDU embassy is interviewing again and will be able to process it’s cases. As of now, Nepal has 2217 issued visas. 2127 of those are below 4725 – the highest CN for April. Dividing 2127 by 4.725 gives the issued per 1000 rate – 450. Now we know that Nepal will probably get cutoff at 3500 or so and a few visas will go on AoS cases – but if the issued rate continues at this pace we could say 3500/450 would give us the likely cutoff point for Nepal which is 7777. In reality I expect a few more cases under 4725 to be approved AND I think the cutoff may be applied slightly earlier because of AoS cases. On the other hand, the earthquake may have affected a few families who decided not to leave their homeland at this time. So – I now think the cutoff for Nepal could be around 7300 to 7800, most likely around 7500.

 

Having said that. From a region point of view, the story in Nepal is academic. Nepal will hit the max – there is no doubt about that. So – we can assume Nepal takes 3500 visas from the quota (and the quota for AS region is around 8300 to 8500, with around 500 going to AoS cases. Let us optimistically say the Nepal leaves 4800 to 5000 visas remaining for Iran and the rest of Asia (ROA). Given that there will be Aos cases from that 4800 to 5000, we should work on 4500 remaining.

So – Iran.

I have been explaining for some months that Iran is the key to how high the final number goes for Asia. In DV2013, Iran took over 3500 visas. But then in DV2014 something changed and Nepal only took 2300 visas – a huge reduction. The difference was AP cases (Administrative Processing). Cases in the last 4 or 5 months that went on AP had no time to complete and many Iranian AP cases missed out. So the question for Asia this year has been would Iran take 2300 or something higher.

Well the CEAC file on Friday reveals there has been a very noticeable jump in issued visas at the 3 embassies that handle Iranian cases. I think that is a sign that AP cases that started in December January and perhaps even February are being approved. Iran appears to have doubled its issued number in the last 6 weeks. If that pace continues, Iran could take 2700, perhaps even 3000 visas. Since Iranian cases are all concentrated below CN8200, that means they will be current before the higher case numbers in Asia. So – from our 4500 visas we can take at least 2700. That leaves 1800 visas for ROA.

 

Rest of Asia (ROA)

Up to now, ROA has been taking 130 visas per 1000, and that number is maturing (DS260 cases completing) – meaning it will probably end up at something around 140/1000 – probably a bit more (maybe as high as 150).
So if we assume the issued rate for ROA is 140 that would mean we could see 12850, and at 150 per 1000 we would see 12000. It seems clear we will not see a final number for ROA higher than 13000, and realistically cases in the 11XXX and 12XXX range are going to have a nervous wait. We need to keep an eye on the Iran rate.

 

Of course we need to see the 2NLs to see if anything changes and I will be watching the Iranian cases. I will issue an update if anything changes.

 

Asia estimate