OK – so along the same idea as the Africa example, I wanted to publish some thoughts on what is happening/will happen in Asia.
From the extract I posted on Friday there is some interesting data.
First – Nepal.
The file shows KDU embassy have issued about 200 visas since the beginning of the month – which is pretty amazing given they were closed for the first week of the month due to the earthquake. It seems like KDU embassy is interviewing again and will be able to process it’s cases. As of now, Nepal has 2217 issued visas. 2127 of those are below 4725 – the highest CN for April. Dividing 2127 by 4.725 gives the issued per 1000 rate – 450. Now we know that Nepal will probably get cutoff at 3500 or so and a few visas will go on AoS cases – but if the issued rate continues at this pace we could say 3500/450 would give us the likely cutoff point for Nepal which is 7777. In reality I expect a few more cases under 4725 to be approved AND I think the cutoff may be applied slightly earlier because of AoS cases. On the other hand, the earthquake may have affected a few families who decided not to leave their homeland at this time. So – I now think the cutoff for Nepal could be around 7300 to 7800, most likely around 7500.
Having said that. From a region point of view, the story in Nepal is academic. Nepal will hit the max – there is no doubt about that. So – we can assume Nepal takes 3500 visas from the quota (and the quota for AS region is around 8300 to 8500, with around 500 going to AoS cases. Let us optimistically say the Nepal leaves 4800 to 5000 visas remaining for Iran and the rest of Asia (ROA). Given that there will be Aos cases from that 4800 to 5000, we should work on 4500 remaining.
So – Iran.
I have been explaining for some months that Iran is the key to how high the final number goes for Asia. In DV2013, Iran took over 3500 visas. But then in DV2014 something changed and Nepal only took 2300 visas – a huge reduction. The difference was AP cases (Administrative Processing). Cases in the last 4 or 5 months that went on AP had no time to complete and many Iranian AP cases missed out. So the question for Asia this year has been would Iran take 2300 or something higher.
Well the CEAC file on Friday reveals there has been a very noticeable jump in issued visas at the 3 embassies that handle Iranian cases. I think that is a sign that AP cases that started in December January and perhaps even February are being approved. Iran appears to have doubled its issued number in the last 6 weeks. If that pace continues, Iran could take 2700, perhaps even 3000 visas. Since Iranian cases are all concentrated below CN8200, that means they will be current before the higher case numbers in Asia. So – from our 4500 visas we can take at least 2700. That leaves 1800 visas for ROA.
Rest of Asia (ROA)
Up to now, ROA has been taking 130 visas per 1000, and that number is maturing (DS260 cases completing) – meaning it will probably end up at something around 140/1000 – probably a bit more (maybe as high as 150).
So if we assume the issued rate for ROA is 140 that would mean we could see 12850, and at 150 per 1000 we would see 12000. It seems clear we will not see a final number for ROA higher than 13000, and realistically cases in the 11XXX and 12XXX range are going to have a nervous wait. We need to keep an eye on the Iran rate.
Of course we need to see the 2NLs to see if anything changes and I will be watching the Iranian cases. I will issue an update if anything changes.
May 29, 2015 at 05:52
What about Nepal no more vb
May 29, 2015 at 05:54
I think Nepal will increase in the next VB
May 29, 2015 at 18:35
Correct me if i miss something..
It seems that in this analysis, you did not mention about the number density for AS that drastically decrease after ~8000 ?
I am assuming that you already consider that. right ?
Do you have the prediction for Aug ?
AS008250 seems reasonable for you ? 🙂
May 29, 2015 at 21:26
Wow – yes you missed something – I did describe the density reduction after Iran and Nepal max out and have several charts showing exactly that. Hard to miss frankly! Yes I already factor that in.
I have been waiting for the CEAC data to be updated with the 2NLs, but I may have to work on a prediction without that.
Your number is safe – in fact will probably be current in the next VB.
May 30, 2015 at 05:07
I have a question about the maximum visa numbers for Asia
is there any limitation in visa numbers for each continent like the 7% limitation for each country. If there is any limitation could you explain it?
Thanks in advance
May 30, 2015 at 05:47
There is a quota for each region – explained here:-
June 1, 2015 at 20:52
AS 124XX (ROA) still stands a good chance in your opinion?
June 1, 2015 at 21:13
A chance yes…. but obviously you need to wait and see…..
June 1, 2015 at 22:36
Thank you.. do you know roughly the average number of cases at NVC from 6850 – 12500 in Asia
June 1, 2015 at 22:40
I mean valid and real cases
June 2, 2015 at 03:27
2622 cases (plus derivatives)
June 2, 2015 at 06:53
Hi simon,what about the case number 66xx for nepal is there any chance in next VB.
June 3, 2015 at 01:48
June 4, 2015 at 15:12
Thanks simon I am relieved.
June 6, 2015 at 06:49
Hey brit how many lot can be out for 2016.any guess?and when
June 6, 2015 at 21:07
How many lot? I don’t understand…
June 7, 2015 at 08:45
I and my wife had been interview on May/20. My wife is DV lottery winner. but she and my daughter got visa at that time and I got AP. I got two time F1 visa (First time 35 days AP in Malaysia & second time 12 days AP in Turkmenistan). My major is PhD mechanical Eng. but my reach plan is about mathematical method on production as shown in CV submitted on embassy at interview time. on the other hand, I exempt my military service in IRAN. but office ask me many question about reach plan and i answered to all of his questions. Let me know. What do you think about my AP process? how long time you estimated? is there any chance I get a DV visa?
June 7, 2015 at 16:50
It is impossible for me to guess…. you can only wait.
June 11, 2015 at 00:17
So this post is kinda irrelevant after the latest VB, right? AS108xx can I still make it please?
June 11, 2015 at 06:32
Not irrelevant, no – surprisingly accurate if you read it well – and yet to be concluded.
June 11, 2015 at 09:58
I see, do you think I still have a chance then?