OK – this is the halfway point of the DV2015 year. We only have 4 VBs left, BUT from a processing point of view we are only halfway through.

AS you can see KCC are on the pace I have described previously. They have issued almost 5000 visas this month. THat is the pace they need to achieve to get all the visas issued by year end.

There are still cases “in Transit” which are not adding to the family member columns. 368 cases in AF, 145 cases in EU, 310 in AS, 27 in SA and 4 in OC region. That means there are about 1400 more “family members” that have been added than the 7800 shown as added this month. So – around 9000 selectees (with family) were made scheduled this month from the VB progress. That is MORE than enough to achieve 5000 issued visas for the May interviews – and shows that despite the slow VB progress, the DS260 backlog is still providing the bulk of the selectees.

The other thing I want to point out is the “real” number of people on AP. The summary shows 2890 people in AP globally. However, this number is lower than it should be in reality. If a case is on AP (meaning the principal is on AP) the derivatives are often not updated as being on AP also – BUT they cannot be approved until the principal is approved. So – in that case we should be filtering all the cases on AP, and counting the family members. Whilst this isn’t 100% accurate either, it gives a better idea of the real number of selectees on AP. So – if we filter that way we have the following selectees on AP:

AF – 1180

EU – 1315

AS – 903

SA – 80

OC – 16

So – that adds up to ~3500 family members on AP. The majority of those will be approved – so from this first 6 months of processing, and with the 6 month VB numbers, we can assume that another 3000 selectees will be approved in addition to the  17818 shown as issued in CEAC – that takes us to ~21000

In addition to the 21000 there will also be some Adjustment of Status (AoS) cases (which are processed in the USA, not at consulates). Last year there were almost 2000 such approvals – so we can assume 1000 will already be on course for approval from the first 6 months.

So – that means they probably will have produced about 22000 visas for the first 6 months. That is pretty much in line with previous years – the second half of the year yields more approvals (some of which, of course, will be those AP cases from the first half of the year).

Let me add one more thing. There are still cases completing DS260 processing from the cases already current. So – even if they did not release a single extra case number ion the VB, the numbers published would continue to grow as cases came forward. So – we cannot do a simple “double  the VB number to find the final case number” calculation. If only it were that simple….


OK – I hope that is useful.


Here is the data

And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.

CEAC data extract April 1