OK – this is the halfway point of the DV2015 year. We only have 4 VBs left, BUT from a processing point of view we are only halfway through.
AS you can see KCC are on the pace I have described previously. They have issued almost 5000 visas this month. THat is the pace they need to achieve to get all the visas issued by year end.
There are still cases “in Transit” which are not adding to the family member columns. 368 cases in AF, 145 cases in EU, 310 in AS, 27 in SA and 4 in OC region. That means there are about 1400 more “family members” that have been added than the 7800 shown as added this month. So – around 9000 selectees (with family) were made scheduled this month from the VB progress. That is MORE than enough to achieve 5000 issued visas for the May interviews – and shows that despite the slow VB progress, the DS260 backlog is still providing the bulk of the selectees.
The other thing I want to point out is the “real” number of people on AP. The summary shows 2890 people in AP globally. However, this number is lower than it should be in reality. If a case is on AP (meaning the principal is on AP) the derivatives are often not updated as being on AP also – BUT they cannot be approved until the principal is approved. So – in that case we should be filtering all the cases on AP, and counting the family members. Whilst this isn’t 100% accurate either, it gives a better idea of the real number of selectees on AP. So – if we filter that way we have the following selectees on AP:
AF – 1180
EU – 1315
AS – 903
SA – 80
OC – 16
So – that adds up to ~3500 family members on AP. The majority of those will be approved – so from this first 6 months of processing, and with the 6 month VB numbers, we can assume that another 3000 selectees will be approved in addition to the 17818 shown as issued in CEAC – that takes us to ~21000
In addition to the 21000 there will also be some Adjustment of Status (AoS) cases (which are processed in the USA, not at consulates). Last year there were almost 2000 such approvals – so we can assume 1000 will already be on course for approval from the first 6 months.
So – that means they probably will have produced about 22000 visas for the first 6 months. That is pretty much in line with previous years – the second half of the year yields more approvals (some of which, of course, will be those AP cases from the first half of the year).
Let me add one more thing. There are still cases completing DS260 processing from the cases already current. So – even if they did not release a single extra case number ion the VB, the numbers published would continue to grow as cases came forward. So – we cannot do a simple “double the VB number to find the final case number” calculation. If only it were that simple….
OK – I hope that is useful.
Here is the data
And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.
April 18, 2015 at 14:00
Good day Brit
My cn is AF69K DO I stand a chance for an interview?
April 18, 2015 at 16:44
Yes you have a chance – read this https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
April 19, 2015 at 11:35
My interview was on 9th of April, Because I came from other country to Egypt, i didn’t get enough time for medical exam, i get medical exam results on 12th of April and at the same day it was been in the embassy
In the interview I get g221 paper and there is mark in medical exam and no mark in AP
Today 19 April Ceac update changes to AP
Please i am depressed and confused
Is this will take several weeks ???
April 19, 2015 at 14:39
Most likely it will conclude within a week or two at most. Relax.
April 21, 2015 at 23:33
I DON’T HAVE PASSPORT, I USE OTHER TRAVEL DOCUMENT? WILL IT CAUSE PROBLEM? KOJO FROM GHANA
April 22, 2015 at 00:30
You have to have a passport at the interview….
April 27, 2015 at 18:45
I don’t know what you mean by the maX case in Af 89 ??
April 27, 2015 at 19:51
April 27, 2015 at 23:48
There is no AF case number that we know of higher than 89799
April 27, 2015 at 19:19
My case is current for June interview and my CN is 32xxx. KCC have sent out 2nls for june interview and I have not receive mine. I want to know when I will receive my 2nls?
April 27, 2015 at 23:52
2NLs are still being sent out. You can check CEAC to see if you are scheduled.
May 7, 2015 at 19:59
Hi Simon, my wife has just won this year, and we were wondering what our chances are of getting processed further. Our case number is from Europe, and is (without wanting to mention the actual number) between 20200 and 20220. Thank you so much for this awesome website!
May 7, 2015 at 20:58
You will be fine – read the blog and learn about it. LOts of time…