Firstly, there has been a terrible earthquake in Nepal today. Many people have lost their lives, or had their lives changed. My thoughts go out to the people of Nepal at their difficult time.
This is a quick post to publish the CEAC data extract that I have taken over the last few hours. The file includes the 2NL cases (denoted by their “in Transit” status). Mostly the in Transit cases are the new 2NLs but AS region had about 75 cases still at in Transit after the last update – i.e. not claimed by the embassy.
You will see I have also extracted the complete file – letting the extracts run until the end of the numbers in CEAC. I don’t publish this complete file every time because it takes longer to extract but it is useful to refer to it sometimes to see what cases are above the current VB numbers.
You can also see that the issued progress remains on track – with one week to go in the month it looks like they will get very close to hitting 5000 issued visas this month.
I have commitments today, so I am not going to be able to work on predictions today – I might be able to get to it later tonight. So by publishing the data it gives a few hours chance for some that are interested to work on their own predictions. In previous posts I have explained how I come up with the predictions and there is all the data you need in the attached file. So – it will be fun to do your own predictions and if you like leave me an email or comment on what you think they will be.
Here is the data
And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.
One more thing. If you appreciate the work I am doing in keeping you informed and assisting you through the process I would be grateful if you could read this page about the “Treehouse fund” and leave a message (which Sofia LOVES) or feel free to donate if you can afford to do so.
CEAC data extract April 25
April 25, 2015 at 18:32
Thank you for this report, keep it up “Good Job”
April 25, 2015 at 18:33
Thanks brit for this report, what I want to ask is my status in ceac changed to in transit but i didn’t receive any email yet, so is there any chance that i will get the 2nl on monday?
April 26, 2015 at 01:36
Yes you should get it Monday – it is coming for sure since that is what is meant by the in Transit status.
April 25, 2015 at 19:03
Based on your posts I believe that VB for African Region for the month of July would be between 43,000 to 45,000. I’m not really sure but that what come up to my mind without calculations. I will do my calculations later. Eagerly waiting for your predictions.
April 26, 2015 at 01:37
OK – That sounds high to me – let me see if my number agrees with you….
April 25, 2015 at 19:03
Good Job Brit..waiting for prediction as you stated above
April 26, 2015 at 01:38
April 25, 2015 at 19:23
As we can see, response rate for EU is still under 50%, High numbers can be excited again.
April 26, 2015 at 01:39
Careful not to take the blended rate – you need to exclude the U2 countries as they reduce the average rate. To do that, take the rate above 20k
April 25, 2015 at 19:58
Ok thanks britsimon,but Il waiting for predictions oo,thanks for the data again,and what does it mean,is AF goin to hv a big jump this next month?
April 26, 2015 at 01:39
Look for predictions tomorrow…
April 25, 2015 at 21:36
For EU the response rate up to 15000 CNs rose to 40%, but for above 15000 CNs (calculated separately) rose to 50%, overall the response rate is about 44%. So far the response rate seems very low, which is good for high CNs.
April 26, 2015 at 01:40
OK – I’ll check those numbers….
April 25, 2015 at 22:28
I think next month EU can see similar jump as in june or even more depending on U2 response rate. this is my opinion.
what do you think, Simon?
April 26, 2015 at 01:41
I’ll post in a few hours
April 26, 2015 at 02:31
Africa doing my on calculations for the AF region I discovered that the next cut will be between 38k to 41k.i hope my knowledge in statics in the field of Maths was accurate….
April 26, 2015 at 04:48
Pretty good prediction – about 1000 more than my range at the bottom and the top. Well done.
April 26, 2015 at 07:09
Thanks Brito, just a concern tried to check my status at ceac, but it gives issues to do with petition and I had not applied for what could be issue .
April 26, 2015 at 14:25
The issue is you haven’t followed instructions correctly.
Enter your number like this 2015EU12345 – no leading zeros.
April 26, 2015 at 18:48
Hi My cn 2015AF66××× I’m very scary For the next visa bulltien …
April 26, 2015 at 18:51
Yes I understand. Good luck!
April 26, 2015 at 18:54
We have chance or not ???
April 26, 2015 at 18:57
Some chance – but risky. You have to wait and see. Good luck!
April 27, 2015 at 02:55
Hi brit with AF710xx do you think there is no more chance to have an interview.
April 27, 2015 at 03:47
It is tough to say “no hope” but it is looking less and less likely. However, no matter what I predict you obviously HAVE to watch to the end….
April 27, 2015 at 12:46
I sent my DS260 20 Novembbre 2014 but so far I have not received my second letter I try to conecter me in ECAC website was told TRANSIT
what does it mean?
April 27, 2015 at 14:46
in Transit means you case is scheduled for interview in June. The 2NLs have been delayed – but you will receive it shortly.
April 30, 2015 at 11:23
in your data we published the number of visas refused (1787 for example to 25 April 2015). This number actually means?
This concerns only the winners? or this number also included family (winner + wife + children)?
April 30, 2015 at 13:33
The numbers include family members – however some embassies fail to update all cases so you can find a case that was refused and family members still show as ready.
May 1, 2015 at 16:37
Does the number of issued include family members?
May 1, 2015 at 17:07
May 1, 2015 at 18:55
How many people should be issue at end of process for each year (especialy this september)? With or without family member ?
May 1, 2015 at 20:20
Approximately 50000 visas are given out – that number includes family members
May 2, 2015 at 10:47
hi Britsimon Britsimonsays ,At first, Thank you very much for all that you do to help us
Actually i have 2 questions
-My CN is AF69900 so please tell me ,is there a chance ? if yes when can i have the second letter.
May 2, 2015 at 18:36
That number is in a risky range now, but if you do get current it would be for a September interview – so the 2NL would be sent out in July.
May 2, 2015 at 22:08
please what is the meaning of current in this case
May 2, 2015 at 22:33
A case number able to be interviewed
May 4, 2015 at 15:42
Hello mr brits am from sudan and my cn is af00057xxx do i have a great chance ??
May 4, 2015 at 16:26
Yes you do!
May 9, 2015 at 07:09
So if we have from July to September Curent-curent-curent , (what does it want to say) please.
May 12, 2015 at 10:17
hi brits please with a new cut off of july 36300.my case is af55xxx do i have chance.and wich mounth can i take my interview.thamk
May 12, 2015 at 13:38
You have a chance – and if you do get an interview it will be in September
May 29, 2015 at 18:31
my cn is 2016AF10***
pls im now applying for a passport hoping to get it by july. is my number safe as you have been espousing? should i fill the ds 260 in august , will it affect me. thanks
May 29, 2015 at 21:27
Your number is safe yes. Submitted the DS260 late may delay your interview a bit, but that won’t matter.