This file is the end of April position – 7 months of processing – 5 months to go. I say that because it is important to remember the VBs are predictive and therefore have only 3 months to go – but we must remember that processing has 5 full months. Also that means the CEAC data itself contains two full months of cases that could not have been interviewed yet.
The issued visas for AF region is slightly below what I expected this month. I suspect that is as much about late/lazy updates from the embassies as anything else. I also noted that Kathmandu embassy issued only 1 visa in the last week – as we know they cancelled some interviews that will be rescheduled for later.
Iran does seem to have had a number of AP cases cleared this month – so the Asian issuances this month were closer to the required pace despite the loss of one processing week in Nepal.
EU has had a strong month, and given the VB movement we can see that pace will continue. To me that reinforces an earlier suspicion that EU will get to the max case number in August (as it did last year). September processing in EU would therefore be from backlog cases, AP closures and so on. OC is on the same sort of trajectory and the assumption would be the same for OC – final number in August.
OK – enjoy the data and let me know your thoughts…
Here is the data
And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.
One more thing. If you appreciate the work I am doing in keeping you informed and assisting you through the process I would be grateful if you could read this page about the “Treehouse fund” and leave a message (which Sofia LOVES) or feel free to donate if you can afford to do so.
CEAC data extract May 1
May 6, 2015 at 16:11
The hope is justified Until 67k possible.
I watched the excel file and there are about 8900 visas for 20485 winners (without holes) or 30700 winners (with holes) a report 8900/20485= 0.43.
It remains to 6700 visas for the three remaining visas bulletins and will give 4400 visas for May and June 1000 visas for cases treated outside.
If we increase this report up to 0.6
there will be 6700 / 0.6 = 11,150
11 150 + 21750 = 32900 which corresponds to 67.4XX
So it is possible to 67k
May 6, 2015 at 13:22
Hi Brit. please when do you think af52*** will get notified
May 6, 2015 at 07:42
hello sir
I made small calculations and here are my estimates for the cut offs. if the response rate is 65% of the cut off being 64,275 and if the response rate is 60% off the cut will be 68000. What’s your opinion?
May 5, 2015 at 20:19
Oh I see. So If they have issued 379 does that mean they have 371 left to give? Or would I need to add other categories in like ‘Ready’, ‘NVC’ and ‘AP’ to that also? Thanks for your help.
May 5, 2015 at 20:34
Some AP cases will turn into issued, and some of the ready cases will also. NVC cases have not yet been scheduled…
May 5, 2015 at 20:53
Okay cheers. Do you know if there is a definition of the different categories anywhere online? I have loads of Q’s but don’t want to take up too much of your time!
May 5, 2015 at 21:40
My site has a good search function!
May 5, 2015 at 22:18
Ah okay many thanks, I have read some interesting stuff – great site! I do have one last Q, I hope you don’t mind, as I am struggling with some of the terminology! – How can I make a rough of estimation of how many visas the OC have left this year? Many thanks for all your help.
May 5, 2015 at 22:44
Look at the CEAC data issued and subtract that from 750…
May 5, 2015 at 14:38
I read somewhere that there are more visa’s available this year, so I was expecting it to fall higher than last year.
May 5, 2015 at 17:06
OC has had a slight increase from the Nigeria exclusion, but it appears that more cases are processing per 100, so that wipes out the benefit. It is too early to be certain though – OC is too small to be statistically accurate.
May 5, 2015 at 19:39
Oh right that makes sense. Do you know how many visas they have to give away for OC? Or is that info confidential. Thanks
May 5, 2015 at 20:03
It will be about 850 this year, including those on Adjustment of Status which will not show in CEAC – so the target for CEAC is around 750
May 5, 2015 at 14:16
So the 15XX’s in OC are looking unlikely now?
May 5, 2015 at 14:29
It is looking riskier….
May 5, 2015 at 05:41
Thank you so much. Is there any difference in time processing for different states or not? Now, I live in OK. Do you know anything about time processing in this state?
That is my last question. Thank you again for your useful answers.
May 5, 2015 at 05:49
It does vary by Field Office – but it is somewhat inconsistent.
May 5, 2015 at 05:20
Thank you so much for your answer. By “early filing policy” you mean that I should file my application for AoS once the diversity Immigrant cut-off is met. Am I right?
Would you please explain more about it (early filing policy) ?
May 5, 2015 at 05:26
You need to be studying about this if you expect to process your case.
Early filing allows you to file once your case number is announced in the VB. So – if the VB released in June says you number will be current for August interviews, you can file immediately in June.
AoS is specialized. The best source of info for AoS is here:-
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-aos-only.7/
Make sure you read the spreadsheet linked from the first post in that thread.
May 5, 2015 at 04:21
Hello Brit
Thank you for everything, I am living in the US (student) and won the DV lottery 2015 with case number of AS8xxx. It costs me about $4000 (for both me and my wife) to apply for ADS. Do you think there is still any chance for me?
May 5, 2015 at 04:57
If you are not from Nepal then yes you are in a very safe range. You will probably be current in August – and that is plenty of time to do AoS if you take advantage of the early filing policy.
May 5, 2015 at 01:23
BritSimon Do you think that SA will reach the 1300 range this year?
May 5, 2015 at 04:49
Yes.
May 5, 2015 at 00:23
Hello Simon Do you think that wishes to reach the lost in the figure of 30600 Egypt
May 5, 2015 at 04:44
That is a risky range for Egypt – you can only wait to see what happens. Good luck!
May 4, 2015 at 16:34
Mr.brit:my CN af58××× ihave achance to inte
May 4, 2015 at 16:49
Yes, you should get a September interview.
May 4, 2015 at 15:02
Hello Mr BritSimon.
I ask about the cases ‘Ready’!
I understand the ‘Ready’ are those who have already made their interview but which have not yet withdrawn their passports?
I looked between April and 1 May there are many cases ‘Ready’.
What analysis do you do?
May 4, 2015 at 16:25
No, ready is the status that shows when the interview is scheduled. So – there are many cases when ready cases have not yet been interviewed. If someone is approved in the interview they show as issued. There are some embassies that don’t update CEAC well, so there are some ready cases that might have been interviewed, but not updated.
May 4, 2015 at 13:23
hi Brit, so we all know that the tragedy of Nepal is going to probably slow down the VB progress, based on this, do you still think for ROA the final cut off can even hit 9000?
May 4, 2015 at 16:21
I’m not sure I agree that the VB will slow down because of the Nepal situation. We have to wait and see how they handle it.
May 4, 2015 at 12:12
I work a little bit on your data, Below we can see that only Egypt and Ethiopia have good progress in issued casse.
That mean their case density is considerable in the CASE NUMBER.
So if KCC stop the july VB for them like: Egypt 35 k and Ethiopia at 35 k
Can AF go current? or reach 80 k ? in September VB
ISSUED COUNTRY
2095 Cairo, Egypt
1679 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
817 Kinshasa, Dem. Rep. of the Congo
599 Nairobi, Kenya
573 Monrovia, Liberia
538 Yaounde, Cameroon
473 Algiers, Algeria
437 Casablanca, Morocco
225 Accra, Ghana
134 Lome, Togo
121 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
107 Dakar, Senegal
105 Abu Dhabi, UAE
100 Abidjan, Cote D’Ivoire
97 Johannesburg, South Africa
59 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
58 Freetown, Sierra Leone (files go to DKR)
51 Doha, Qatar
39 Cotonou, Benin
31 Montreal, Canada
27 Paris, France
22 Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania
22 London, England
18 Kuwait, Kuwait
17 Brazzaville, Republic of Congo
17 Lusaka, Zambia
16 Muscat, Oman
15 Naples, Italy
14 Mumbai, India
13 Libreville, Gabon
12 Amman, Jordan
10 Tunis, Tunisia
8 Antananarivo, Madagascar
7 Brussels, Belgium
7 Sydney, Australia
7 Harare, Zimbabwe
6 Frankfurt, Germany
6 Islamabad, Pakistan
5 Stockholm, Sweden
5 Praia, Cape Verde
5 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
4 Guangzhou, China
4 Djibouti, Djibouti
4 Dublin, Ireland
4 Amsterdam, Netherlands
3 Ankara, Turkey
3 Tokyo, Japan
2 Helsinki, Finland
2 Luanda, Angola
2 New Delhi, India
2 Jerusalem
2 Kingston, Jamaica
1 Bern, Switzerland
1 Warsaw, Poland
1 Kyiv, Ukraine
1 Dhaka, Bangladesh
1 Manama, Bahrain
1 Manila, Philippines
1 Lagos, Nigeria
May 4, 2015 at 16:19
Yes I am aware of the density for Egypt and Ethiopia, I have written extensively explaining why that happens. That is already considered in my findings and won’t cause a big jump.
May 5, 2015 at 02:43
Hi Brit, could U pls elaborate further on the previous question asked by Ouro regarding the info he provided. Is it possible for Africa to have a final cutoff around 80,000 or 75 at least?
May 5, 2015 at 04:54
No it is not possible to reach 80. Ouro seems to suggest something unusual has happened. It hasn’t. Those numbers are exactly as expected.
The reality is that the final numbers will be lower than last year. I think 75 is a very risky range.
May 4, 2015 at 06:33
Hi Brit
How can I check my status
Thanks
May 4, 2015 at 16:03
https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx
May 4, 2015 at 00:37
Hello Brit,
Will the earthquake in Nepal push the predictions of 67xx to a higher number range? (Like upto 69xx or even 70xx).
Thank you.
May 4, 2015 at 00:42
It is not clear what the impact will be if any – so I am not changing my prediction – and we will wait and see what happens.
May 4, 2015 at 00:19
Dear sir,
I wrote school name Sonpur instead of Sonapur in the form. I misssed a in the middle. Do I need to rectify form or it does not make any difference.
Thankyou
May 4, 2015 at 00:34
It won’t make a difference…
May 3, 2015 at 20:31
Hi BritSimon, what about 2015 EU 392xxx, july or august interview? Thanks!
May 3, 2015 at 23:41
Could be either of those….
May 3, 2015 at 18:01
Hi Simon,
Appreciate your efforts and time.
Considering these information, what will be the chance for AS83XX from IRAN?
When will be the interview?
May 3, 2015 at 19:18
Probably an August interview. Avoiding AP is essential….
May 3, 2015 at 20:34
Thanks Simon for quick respond. What do you mean ” Avoiding AP is essential….” I did not get that.
May 3, 2015 at 23:42
Many Iranian cases are placed on Administrative Processing – AP. It is a period of background checks. For Iranians that have worked for the military or government, it is quite common and takes 4+ months. So – if you go on AP, you won’t have time to get cleared.
May 4, 2015 at 01:51
Thank you again,
I feel panic now after your explanation.
But the fact is I did not work for government or military.
My husband just did the two years mandatory army service when he was 18 years old (35 years ago).
He also got a tourism visa from US consular in Toronto last month that took about 4+ months to be issued.
Considering they check his background during visa issuance and we did not work for government or military, do you think we go through AP?
May 4, 2015 at 02:10
I can’t be sure – it doesn’t always hit everyone.
May 3, 2015 at 17:05
how about AF602XX whath do you think according ti this informations please?
May 3, 2015 at 17:57
Good number – you have a good chance.
May 3, 2015 at 16:15
Hello Mr Brit.
My CN is AF600XX, what do u think about ?
May 3, 2015 at 17:56
Good number – you have a good chance.
May 3, 2015 at 16:07
Well, with those new data, I will repeat my all time question, do you still think that AF000447xx still 100% safe? Thank you in advance.
Sincerely,
Sue
May 3, 2015 at 17:52
Yes – still safe. The data is not a surprise to me – and it is already considered in my recent comments.
May 3, 2015 at 16:02
By May 1 last year how many visas were issued? do you have any statistics of it? thanks
May 3, 2015 at 14:15
Hello sir
7860 from Nepal any chance or not……. I know my number is in boarder line….. But I want to know what short of chances ….excellent, better, good, or only few chance…….. What you say?
May 3, 2015 at 15:13
I cannot be that precise. Wait and see.
May 3, 2015 at 13:42
Hi brit.i am AF 39200. Can I expect an interview for july
May 3, 2015 at 15:12
Possibly, and if not then August.
May 3, 2015 at 12:19
Thanks brit
May 3, 2015 at 10:23
hi brit!
do you still think i have a chance to get an interview with AF610xx????
thx in advance.
May 3, 2015 at 15:11
You still have a chance…
May 3, 2015 at 08:42
When we compare the column of NVC with data at April 25 , we see a lot changes for all regions. What does it mean? ( more tha 20000 casea must be sceudled in just 5 days! Is it possible?)
May 3, 2015 at 11:09
* Scheduled *
May 3, 2015 at 15:09
As mentioned on the page and the chart the NVC number is higher on that file because I included all the cases to the end – all those which are not yet current.
May 3, 2015 at 16:13
Do you mean that rather than those already scheduled, at NVC means the real cases remaining and the rest are just holes? Could you explain your point of view further? We know that there are 39xxx real cases for AF region, of those, how many aren’t current yet? For your answer, please consider June cases to be current.
May 3, 2015 at 17:56
In AF region there are at least 17150 cases not yet current (There are additionally some Ethiopian and Egptian cases not yet current but under the June VB number). That means about 30,000 people are not yet current.
May 3, 2015 at 18:49
You mean only 9000 out of 39000 cases are current and some already got visas? That is disappointing.
May 3, 2015 at 19:20
No – note the difference between cases and family members.
39000 CASES = 58000 people
I said 17000+ cases not yet current – around 30000 people.
May 3, 2015 at 08:12
Hi Brit thank you for your famous work. I want to know with that progression, if Africa can achieve your prediction ?? My number is AF624xx. Can i have a chance for the interview? I’m confused.thank you.
May 3, 2015 at 15:06
There is some risk with that number. The VB could move to that number, I would say your chance is pretty good.
May 3, 2015 at 04:56
Dear Britsimon
what about Egypt still you predict adding 2k to 3k for July or prediction change ? advise please
May 3, 2015 at 05:11
Still the same…
May 3, 2015 at 04:25
Still chance Nepal as 750x
May 3, 2015 at 04:52
Yes!
May 3, 2015 at 03:58
Brit,AF case could be as you said late or lazy response of embassies,but my gut tell me that AF is slow because most lower CN that are current already,either have not know they won dv that means they did not proceed with the ds 260 submission. Embassies they hope those people will submit ds 260. A need to have adeadline for ds260 is important in order to understand which case will not go foward…my two cents
May 3, 2015 at 04:52
Yep could be that too….
May 3, 2015 at 03:50
“OC is on the same sort of trajectory and the assumption would be the same for OC – final number in August.”
That’s sad but sounds likely. I’m revising my estimate down to somewhere near 1450.
Just too many OC people acting on the opportunity for high CNs to get a chance. Hopefully the next draw will have a more realistic number of selectees. Just over half of the 2015 total would be more than enough.
May 3, 2015 at 04:51
Yep – I think you are right… and yeah I am thinking the number could be up to 1300 in July then 1400/1450 in August.
🙁
May 2, 2015 at 23:43
Still beleive Asia would be around 6500-6700 range for next bulletin?
May 3, 2015 at 00:22
Well my prediction is 66XX to 67XX, but of course Nepal might change things…
May 3, 2015 at 06:58
can u predict …like will it more then ur predication or less then ur predication ?
May 3, 2015 at 15:05
Let’s just wait a few days…
May 2, 2015 at 21:29
It seems that SA is in a pace of 100 monthly visas issued. Could we expect about 500 more?
May 2, 2015 at 22:34
Yes possibly.
May 3, 2015 at 00:28
Well… of that possibly 500 how many will come from the 350 Ready, 104 AP, and 37*2,4=89 In Transit?
May 2, 2015 at 21:14
There’s no update for Nepal data I think that because the earthquake.
May 2, 2015 at 21:33
Yes of course – that is what I said.
May 2, 2015 at 20:41
Do you the Nepal earthquake will affect the response rate for AS ?
and as a result the VB will be slower than before ?
Thanks
May 2, 2015 at 20:47
It won’t affect the response rate, but could affect progress of the vb. We have to wait and see…
May 2, 2015 at 21:32
Why do u think it would affect the progress of VB , aren’t they going to limit Nepal in August .
May 2, 2015 at 22:35
Well the earthquake is a big event – and a big event like that can change things…
May 2, 2015 at 20:27
Last nuber EU 40150 in September?
May 2, 2015 at 21:30
That number has some chance still….
May 2, 2015 at 20:12
Please I need réponse I’m very scary this month
we have just 3 vd
no chance of interview
Morroco AF669XX Oooo
I’m not good
ms brit please we needyour help
it’s my dreams ……….
May 2, 2015 at 21:29
Like I have already said. You need to wait and see. There is certainly some risk with your number, but let us take it one step at a time – let’s first see where the July VB number falls…
May 2, 2015 at 20:05
Thank you for analysis. Do you have also info what was the last day submission for ds-260 for EU, who has been scheduled in June interview?
May 2, 2015 at 21:27
No. Because of the strange rollout of 2NLs this month we have not had a good survey of DS260 dates.
May 2, 2015 at 19:57
hello…as i have read in a question above,if the cut off of july is below 40000, how is it possible for the kcc to reach your predictions that is around 60000…i am af57xxx…please i am really doubtful
May 2, 2015 at 20:05
Read this.
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
May 2, 2015 at 19:54
What do you think about Asia visa number limitation , is there any afraid for iranian with long AP, about reaching visa limitation before september then not gaining their maximum visa number?
May 2, 2015 at 20:08
Iranian cases are often subjected to long AP processing. For some cases that AP will cause the cases to time out. That is mostly a concern for cases that interview from July onwards.
May 2, 2015 at 19:47
good work Simon!
Let me share my thoughts.
With 75% approval rate for EU, by end of June, about 3,700 visas will be issued. Considering 19.5k quota, that will leave 6450 visas to be issued by the end of September. Considering the pace of visa issuance of 2+k a month the pace of VB increase for EU will continue at least another 2 months. September can also see some VB increase. Otherwise, in September the backlog should cover all the 2+k visas, which, I think, is rather unlikely.
May 2, 2015 at 20:15
Don’t forget aos xases. There will be at least 1000 for EU. Si let’s say the Ceac target is between 18.5 and 19.
End of April shows 9.3 and at least 2 per month pace. So end of June should see 13.5 at least. That leave 5k to 5.5k. Not 6.5k.
See my reasoning??
May 2, 2015 at 20:54
with 75% approval rate, which was the rate in 2014, about 3700 visas will be issued by end of June. So taking into account AOS it will leave 5.5k-6k, which anyways is not doable with 2 months’ VB increase. or it might be that the increase in September will not be much..
May 2, 2015 at 21:32
OK let’s see…
May 2, 2015 at 19:20
it is interesting to see AF region seems ( under issued ) i dont imagine that to be because of the embassy being late to update not for now at least ,,, here what i see we have around 22k visas available for AF region so far only 8635 were issued at least till may the 1st so there AoS cases are not show on CEAC that probably around 1000 visas for AF region until the end of the FY so that would mean 9635 ,, of course there are 2 months at CEAC that just have nt processed yet so for may and june i am assuming approximately 4200 visas for them that will get us to 13835 … NOW we are left with three month of processing to issue around 8165 visas ,,, there are some AP cases will be resolved from now to the end ….
May 2, 2015 at 19:12
So what do u think the final cut off for africa? Thanks.
May 2, 2015 at 20:17
I think it will start with a 6….
Other than that we need to see more data, and we will only know for sure in July.
May 2, 2015 at 19:06
Good by my dream ??
May 2, 2015 at 19:51
What happened to morroco af ???
Do you maen my dream is very lost
……
May 2, 2015 at 18:50
Thanks!
so is going to be low cut-off in July for Africa?
May 2, 2015 at 19:08
Yep – below 40000 – https://britsimonsays.com/june-2nl-analysis-plus-predictions/
May 2, 2015 at 18:47
SA1400? August, September? Regards.
May 2, 2015 at 19:07
Could be either… 🙂
May 10, 2015 at 01:32
do you think it will reach SA 1400?
May 10, 2015 at 06:00
I think so…
May 2, 2015 at 18:34
Thank you, Simon, for all the work you’re doing! I want to ask is there still any chance for AS108XX?
May 2, 2015 at 18:42
Still good chance for that number yes.
May 2, 2015 at 19:22
Thank you for answering! 🙂 My next question may be a bit weird, but I tried to order possible scenarios of how my CN will turn out, from MOST likely to LEAST likely:
– Current in September
– Never become current
– Current in August
Does that make much sense?
Thanks again 🙂
May 2, 2015 at 20:45
Yep you ordered them correctly