Time for a CEAC extract at the halfway point of May. As we can see, around 2300 visas have been issued – very slightly less than the 5000/month pace. AF seems to be the main reason for that pace with only 795 visas issued since the beginning of the month. I will be watching to see if AF catches up in the next 2 weeks.
EU has had a solid 2 weeks – just over 1000 visas. I am keen to see the CEAC data after the 2NLs go out. That will explain why there was a low increase in the latest VB.
In Asia there is a very obvious increase in pace. The reason for that is Iranian cases. In the last 6 weeks the Iranian issued number has almost doubled. I think Iran is on track now to take 2700 to 3000 visas. That will lead to a lower final number – I now cannot see AS going over 13000.
I will be publishing another CEAC data file once the 2NLs are published and I will publish predictions for the next VB at that time. Right now, I am reluctant to provide “guesses” without seeing the new data.
There are 2 VBs left in the year – so we only have around 6 weeks to find out the final VB numbers for DV2015. Don’t forget though there are 4.5 months of processing left – so although 24867 sounds like they are not to meet the quotas, they are actually pretty much on target. 4.5 months at 5000 per month will get within striking distance of the quota – and the final month of processing is usually VERY active.
Here is the data
CEAC data extract May 15
June 8, 2015 at 01:26
hi friends any one help me with the affidavit support i-134 i’m very lost i can’t find any one in USA to help me please need fro help :'(
June 8, 2015 at 01:51
An I134 from a stranger is almost worthless. There are other ways to meet the requirement
https://britsimonsays.com/all-about-public-charge-affidavit-of-support-i-134/
June 1, 2015 at 22:49
I did my calculation, and understand that the final vb for AF will be AF64823, so for any cn below this cn is completely safe. Bravo the cn that below AF64823. If you are above please don’t bother. Let us try 2017.
June 2, 2015 at 03:25
LOLOLOL
That is amazing to be so precise about that! Perhaps you should explain your calculation because a lot of very experienced people are less confident that you, so you method must be rock solid!
June 1, 2015 at 17:33
AS PER THE CEAC data extract May 15, CAN YOU PLEASE PROVIDE THE CEAC DATA PER COUNTRY? I WOULD LOVE TO SEE SAME.
June 1, 2015 at 18:18
I might get some time for that – but it is a very simple thing to do in the spreadsheet from the data posted.
June 1, 2015 at 16:29
sir, I just wish to ask if dv 2015 can be current in Africa in the month of jully and august
June 1, 2015 at 18:33
No that is not possible. There are far too many remaining selectees and not enough visas.
May 29, 2015 at 10:00
Britsimon,what can you say about case no.2016AF56***? Will it make it to the interview and when will it likely to be held? Many regards.
May 29, 2015 at 22:03
It is too soon to be sure of that number – we don’t have a full 2016 picture at this time.
May 29, 2015 at 06:31
what about nepal 7586 is it possiblle?
May 29, 2015 at 22:11
It might just squeeze in – JUST.
May 28, 2015 at 23:10
my cn: as00018xxx
foreign satate chargeability:yemen
post: cairo
do i have chance??
May 28, 2015 at 23:25
That I assume is a 2015 case. Realistically, no, that number is too high.
May 28, 2015 at 21:21
Brit
Till now any good news for africa.
Best regard.
May 28, 2015 at 22:37
No good news….
May 28, 2015 at 07:41
Dear Brit
how much visa remaining for Africa and confirmation number ?
Great thanks.
May 28, 2015 at 15:25
I will publish new data in a few days.
May 28, 2015 at 18:34
Hi Simon,
When do you think we can expect CEAC data update?
May 28, 2015 at 18:41
I am watching for the in TRansit update. Once that is done I will run an extract and calculate predictions. However, if they don’t do the CEAC update by the end of the month – I will probably run a month end extract on Monday and publish that at least.
May 28, 2015 at 18:50
will that update include the July current CNs too?
May 28, 2015 at 19:24
Yes of course
May 28, 2015 at 19:32
I check time after time the CEAC site for in transit update, but no update there. Do you think KCC will update the info by Monday anyway?
May 28, 2015 at 23:14
Your guess is as good as mine.
May 22, 2015 at 17:54
Simon,
do you already see the CEAC updated info? when can we expect the 2nls?
May 22, 2015 at 18:00
Just posted about that. No still not updated.
May 21, 2015 at 06:31
2NLs are out!
May 21, 2015 at 06:35
And the case EU 15*** with DS sent on march 07 is scheduled.
May 21, 2015 at 07:05
it seems the backlog has been much cleared this month, this is why the VB increase was not much.
May 21, 2015 at 07:35
And some new infofmation: case holder EU 19*** with DS sent in the end of march received the 2NL…
Looking forward your predictions, BritSimon!
May 21, 2015 at 08:13
where is your information source YuKa?
What is your CN?
May 21, 2015 at 08:44
My sourse is one belorussian forum.
My CN is close to EU38000.
May 21, 2015 at 20:27
Great thanks – that would be the latest submission I have heard.
May 20, 2015 at 20:00
they only send the 2nls.. i mean.. 🙂
May 20, 2015 at 19:56
they only have the 2nls once?
or they are sending until the next vb are released?
just to know..
May 20, 2015 at 20:10
Usually one batch of 2NLs – sometimes taking a couple of days.
May 20, 2015 at 20:13
ok. thanks!
May 20, 2015 at 17:19
is there anyone who received 2NL?
May 20, 2015 at 18:02
No.
May 20, 2015 at 18:29
Hi!
They have begun to receive it!
i saw in other forum one who said that he has appoinment already.
May 20, 2015 at 19:37
yes they are coming out!
May 20, 2015 at 19:01
Update – sounds like they have started being sent…
May 20, 2015 at 19:27
it seems this month KCC is a little faster in sending the 2nls.
Simon, we expect new CEAC data and predictions soon..
May 20, 2015 at 19:31
Yeah – they sent the 2NLs but did not do all the ESC system updates. Hilarious.
So far the “in Transit” update isn’t in the system. Once it is, I will extract the data (takes a few hours) then take a look and post something….
May 20, 2015 at 19:42
very eager to see it. this month’s VB was really not understandable.. hope to see some logic after 2nls.
May 19, 2015 at 03:37
Thanks, Any idea of how much there were in 2014?
May 18, 2015 at 09:48
Hi britSimon
What is 11470 for AS in first chart?
Mine is 106**
May 18, 2015 at 15:17
That is the number of cases in the AS region for the whole number range. Each case relates to the selectee and derivatives (family)
May 18, 2015 at 02:02
FOR EVERYBODY:
I just want to share my favourite quote…………..no amount of worrying can change the future 🙂 wish the best of luck to everybody……….your dreams are about to be realized 🙂
May 17, 2015 at 23:53
Brit,
On behalf of my friend .
The case was for his wife (derivatives are husband and two babies) , the interview went fine as the CO congratulated them promising to receive their visas within two weeks .
then after 5 days they got notified by Aramex for passport delivery where they realised that the Husband’s passport was missing while the rest were there with visas .Then checked out the website to find it,s under AP till now 2 Months. BTW, he’s working for an international oil company in Iraq with rotation based so do you think that’s the reason behind putting ad AP and do you think it will be cleared and issued soon.
Thanks
May 18, 2015 at 00:22
Yes the Oil company connection is possibly what caused the AP. I have no way to predict how long that would last.
May 19, 2015 at 10:50
Brits,
He thought AP because of being from an Arab country working in acountry like Iraq where security crisis over there (do you agree with what he thought or still you think AP is possibly caused by the Oil company connection?.
Another question is : can the derivative enter the USA before the principal? if no , then why?
May 19, 2015 at 13:28
It could be either reason. The thing is, it is still AP.
No the derivative has to enter with or after the principal.
May 17, 2015 at 21:15
hi Simon,
I have compared June 2014 and September 2014 CEAC data for EU and found out that 618 visas were issued to cases below 36300 while 1119 family members (554 CNs) were sent 2nd NLs. This means that only 554 cases, already current in June 2014, woke up in July to September. If similar scenario happens this year, and 618 visas are issued to old cases, in the worst case with 3000 visas, 2400 visas will go to new cases. 2400 cases with 75% approval rate and 60% response rate will give rise to 2450 new cases, which is EU422**.
Do you think this is possible this year?
May 17, 2015 at 22:06
The DS260 was introduced this year, and still has longer processing times than the old system, so it is likely that more cases go to backlog cases this year. So, your number is at the top of my range….
May 19, 2015 at 05:59
Do you think the DS260 processing will get so much faster as to reach last year’s processing speed?
May 19, 2015 at 13:44
No. I think they are doing something more in the processing now.
May 19, 2015 at 15:53
Sorry, I did not understand. Do you mean the processing time will become even faster than last year. Last year it was 4-8 weeks, if I am not mistaken. right?
May 19, 2015 at 17:45
No I mean it won’t get as fast as last year. THe old forms were processed in less than 4 weeks – but there is something that seems to take longer with the DS260 – even disregarding backlog waiting times.
May 19, 2015 at 17:48
this is good for high CNs. right?
do you think KCC will speed up the processing time for DS-260 to 2 months or how long?
May 19, 2015 at 17:57
I don’t know – let’s watch.
May 21, 2015 at 10:32
Simon, if forms sent at the end of March has already been processed (please see below). then the processing speed is almost lined up with the last year’s. So the next batch should not go much to the backlog cases, and Aug. Sep. visas from waken up CNs could be comparable to the last year’s figures. right?
May 21, 2015 at 20:21
I’m not sure exactly your point. There is still going to be a backlog, but yes – far fewer interviews should be taken by backlog cases now.
May 21, 2015 at 20:35
I mean in Aug-Sep of last year only 620 visas were issued to backlog cases below 2014EU36300. So if this year also the processing time will reduce to 1 month for July current cases, it is possible that not more than 600-1000 visas could be issued to the backlog cases for this year too.
May 21, 2015 at 20:38
Possibly. The backlog has clearly reduced, but as you obviously realize there will always be some backlog cases in the final months.
May 17, 2015 at 16:28
hello Brit,
with the actual CEAC data extract, is there any possibility i can go current? here is the my case number 2016AF285xx. or maybe the actual situation makes this harder on my side.
May 18, 2015 at 01:09
Your number is safe. Relax.
May 17, 2015 at 16:19
Hi Simon
I work police officer. Could I have a problem in future steps for this profession?
I am selected for DV 2016.
Thank you for your help.
Regards,
Alban
May 17, 2015 at 15:50
Hi Sir,
What do you think of CN 8200 from Iran? I hope to get an interview in August. So, is it possible?
Sincerely,
Hesam
May 17, 2015 at 15:05
Hi Britsimon
How do you think about my CN 5681X. Please it ‘is important for me to choose a plan B
May 18, 2015 at 01:11
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-update/
May 17, 2015 at 14:54
Dear Sir,
what do you thik about AF602XX according to this informations please
May 18, 2015 at 01:11
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-update/
May 17, 2015 at 14:38
Helo
My CN is AS12190………..so im at the perhaps squeak by range it would seem from all your posts am i right?
i was really hoping it wouldn’t become THIS exciting……..
May 18, 2015 at 01:14
Yes you are correct – you are in for some “excitement”! Best of luck to you!
May 17, 2015 at 14:04
Hi simon
I think its time to giveup now… Case no. 7850 from Nepal… What you say…. Saying honestly I lost my confidence……
May 18, 2015 at 01:15
You are in a risky range – you can only wait and see. Good luck!
May 17, 2015 at 13:53
Hi Mr Brit can you tell or explain me the main reason for that AFRICA VB got a low increase in the latest VB. What can be the cause of that.
What could be the last cut off. My cn is AF62xxx. Can i have chance ??
Thank you.
May 18, 2015 at 01:16
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-update/
May 17, 2015 at 11:05
plz how much case number have we betwen 36500-56340？ thank for your answer. and after this is anything change so i can have interview??
May 18, 2015 at 01:27
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-update/
There is nothing you can change – you just have to wait. 6958 cases.
May 18, 2015 at 11:12
thanks
May 17, 2015 at 08:53
Hi Simon
do you think dv-AF. wil. Be current in September
May 18, 2015 at 01:33
No. Not possible.
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-update/
May 17, 2015 at 08:31
hello Brit,
with the actual CEAC data extract, is there any possibility i can go current? here is the my case number 2016AF285xx. or maybe the actual situation makes this harder on my side.
May 17, 2015 at 07:42
hi brit thx you for all very good job
so after the ceac data extract what do you think about my case number 2015AF532XX i sent to the KCC my form DS260 the 29 MAY 2014
according to you i have the real chance?