Time for a CEAC extract at the halfway point of May. As we can see, around 2300 visas have been issued – very slightly less than the 5000/month pace. AF seems to be the main reason for that pace with only 795 visas issued since the beginning of the month. I will be watching to see if AF catches up in the next 2 weeks.
EU has had a solid 2 weeks – just over 1000 visas. I am keen to see the CEAC data after the 2NLs go out. That will explain why there was a low increase in the latest VB.
In Asia there is a very obvious increase in pace. The reason for that is Iranian cases. In the last 6 weeks the Iranian issued number has almost doubled. I think Iran is on track now to take 2700 to 3000 visas. That will lead to a lower final number – I now cannot see AS going over 13000.
I will be publishing another CEAC data file once the 2NLs are published and I will publish predictions for the next VB at that time. Right now, I am reluctant to provide “guesses” without seeing the new data.
There are 2 VBs left in the year – so we only have around 6 weeks to find out the final VB numbers for DV2015. Don’t forget though there are 4.5 months of processing left – so although 24867 sounds like they are not to meet the quotas, they are actually pretty much on target. 4.5 months at 5000 per month will get within striking distance of the quota – and the final month of processing is usually VERY active.
Here is the data
CEAC data extract May 15
May 17, 2015 at 06:52
Hello Brit, should I understanf that EU405xx stands no chance?
May 18, 2015 at 01:35
No – that is not correct – at the moment that still hase a chance, but not 100% chance.
May 17, 2015 at 05:06
what is the risk with (AP)Administration processing, what do you think, all the AP cases will certain to get visa or has some risk to rufused.
May 18, 2015 at 01:37
Some will get refused of course.
May 17, 2015 at 02:48
hi britsimon
what about Nepal CN 755* ?
May 17, 2015 at 04:11
It is too close to be certain. You will have to wait and see.
May 17, 2015 at 01:29
it is clear with simple logic Africa can not go current, my question (1) is: How many case numbers above 36500 to 52900? (2) if Africa was to max out at 55000, how many cases will they need to issue the remaining visa that will reach the 22000 Quota for Africa,
thanks Shed rick Republic of Liberia
May 17, 2015 at 01:24
How about egypt 28xxx
May 17, 2015 at 01:09
So my cn 745x (Nepal) is impossible now?
Thank you!
May 17, 2015 at 01:34
No not impoasible.wait and see. ..
May 17, 2015 at 01:01
hi brit thx you for all very good job
so after the ceac data extract what do you think about my case number 2015AF532XX i sent to the KCC my form DS260 the 29 MAY 2014
according to you i have the real chance?
May 16, 2015 at 21:42
hi brit .. what does really make you think that there will be no current in the next coming VB’s for Africa ?
May 16, 2015 at 22:30
Well it is VERY clear. Let me try and explain it.
The last VB gave 36500 as the number for July interviews. OK – Give the pace of issuances (nearly 2000 per month for AF) and the AF quota (22000 max including AoS cases) there will be around 5000 visas left at the end of July. You can say 6000 if you wanted to be optimistic.
OK – current means enough visas left for all remaining cases and their family. So – how many cases are between 36500 and the highest allocated number (89799). 16615 cases (over 30000 people). So – even if half of those 30000 people did not want a visa that is still 15000 people and 6000 visas.
It’s very obvious isn’t it????
May 16, 2015 at 21:18
Do you think AF 74,400 stand a chance of becoming current.
May 16, 2015 at 21:33
I’m sorry, no I don’t.
May 16, 2015 at 21:07
Hello. Is there hope my CN: af 39000
May 16, 2015 at 21:31
Yes – you are safe
May 16, 2015 at 20:19
AS 124XX what are the chances in percentage for September interview?
May 16, 2015 at 20:24
I don’t do percentages other than 0 and 100.
You number is in a risky range – all you can do is watch the last two VBs
May 16, 2015 at 20:04
Hi brit
any small hope for af 70xxx.
thanks
May 16, 2015 at 20:22
Not very much 🙁
May 16, 2015 at 21:02
Not very much for 70,000???? but nothing at all for 75,000?
May 16, 2015 at 21:05
Correct
May 16, 2015 at 20:03
im a winner in dv- lottery 2016
Simon I Have A probleme ( please help me ) !!!
I Have 2 problemes in My Ds-260 application
1 —–>My Name In MY id card and passport :
last name : EL Hamdi
surname : Badr-eddine Like this
In the ds-260 i wrote it like this
Last NAme : EL HAMDI
Surname : Badr eddine
cause they didn’t let me write the (-)
seconde probleme
2—–>
My adresse is the same with my fathers :
In my adresse info : real house number is ……….N 384
I wrote it like this in my infos 348
and in my father and mother i wrote it right …… n 384 !!! so please answer me !
that meens that i will got no visa ?
im afraid to lose this opportunity , really wanna go out from this country and have a new life !!!
im from morroco btw
May 16, 2015 at 20:08
And my case is 25XXX AF
hope u can answer me
May 16, 2015 at 20:21
Neither point is serious – relax!
May 17, 2015 at 11:20
So How Can i fix those information ?
Until the meeting ?
May 16, 2015 at 19:36
Hi Simon, Do you think that the final response rate for AF could hit 75%? and did it ever happen in previous DV’s?
May 16, 2015 at 19:54
I don’t think it will happen this year…. Previous years we can’t tell because we did not have the same amount of data we can now get.
May 16, 2015 at 20:24
Thank you.
May 16, 2015 at 19:09
Hi Brit.do you think af6388x is safe ?
May 16, 2015 at 19:17
A bit risky…. but you still have some chance
May 16, 2015 at 18:30
Hello Mr. Simon
First of all, thank you for your efforts. You are very nice guy.
My husband won with CN AS807X from Iran. We are very nervous. Just want to know how many percent we can have hope?
May 16, 2015 at 19:11
You will get an interview – the only issue is AP – there is a higher risk of AP for Iranians who worked for the government or served in the military.
May 16, 2015 at 19:30
Actually we are in he USA. We want to apply for adjustment of status. Dose it affect the procedure? Can we have hope to get GC?
Thank you for your answer.
May 16, 2015 at 19:53
The process is very different for AoS – so you need to take advantage of the early filing.
May 16, 2015 at 20:07
Thank you. My last question”
If we file our application as soon as our CN becomes current, how many percent we have chance to get GC?
Thank you alot again Mr. Simon.
May 16, 2015 at 20:23
That is impossible for me (or anyone else) to answer.
For AoS make sure you are reading this thread.
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-aos-only.7/page-132#post-2401147
May 16, 2015 at 18:23
Thanks a lot, Simon, for the update.
I’ve been reading some previous posts where you stated that currently RoA is getting 118 visas per 1000 CNs, my question is do you expect that number to increase? and if yes, by how much? I fear an increase in response rate, or as you call it maturity, will kill my chances..
May 16, 2015 at 18:26
Yeah that 118 is too low – it is a mid month number.
Last month the ROA rate was at least 125 and that number excludes people at 4 embassies. So – I expect the ROA number to be around 135/140 right now and finish at around 150+
May 16, 2015 at 18:32
Wow, ok. Please correct me if I’m wrong,
Then I need at least 1700 visas for RoA, with 150 visas per 1000 CNs, for my CN (AS10,8XX) to be current? (And it could actually be more than 150)
Makes sense?
May 16, 2015 at 18:33
Sounds like a pretty minimal chance, right?
May 16, 2015 at 19:15
There is some risk….
May 16, 2015 at 19:14
YUP – take a look at this that I wrote this morning on the same subject.
First the quota. I work on 8500, but we will probably only see about 8000 in CEAC due to AoS – and I will use AoS adjusted numbers for Nepal and Iran also.
So Nepal will max (3500 ish) so that is going to mean about 3300 from our 8000.
Iran is heading for 2700 to 3000. Let’s call it 2700 in CEAC.
That leaves 2000 (optimistically) for ROA across the whole range. So how many thousands of cases does it take to fill 2000
In the May 1 file we could exclude the 3 embassies and KDU and find 588 issued as being ROA. In fact that excludes Asians like you, but even accepting that and knowing the max CN that could have been interviewed was 4725 – that showed a ROA rate of 125/1000. In reality I think that was at least 135 maybe even 140 (assuming 60/70 people like you getting lost from the 4 excluded embassies). OK we also know that number is maturing as DS260 backlog continues, so within the 4725 there will eventually be a few more cases not yet processed. To me it seems very probable that we will get to a issued rate of AT LEAST 150/100 – that would mean 710 ROA cases instead of the 588 the May 1 file shows.
OK – so if we take our optimistic 2000 and divide by our optimistic 150 per thousand we get almost exactly last years cut off. If the 150 becomes 160 we are at 12500. If the 150 is right, but we only have 1700 left for ROA we have 11300.
May 16, 2015 at 19:27
Thank you.
But it can be worse than that (11,300)?
And hence the risk?
May 16, 2015 at 19:52
Yup. Iran taking more will reduce ROA. If ROA gets more than the 150 then 11300 is in doubt. I can’t be precise – but you can see the basic math.
May 16, 2015 at 18:15
Hi Britsimon!. Thank you for the information. Do you think that South America could be “current” in the next two bulletins? (considering the slow pace). Which do you think will be the final cut-off number for South America?. A lot of thanks.
May 16, 2015 at 18:21
Current, no. I don’t know the final number for SA – we can only wait and see.
May 16, 2015 at 18:00
hello Mr brit :
wath is the response rate or the percentage of ussued in column NVC, in the table(CEAC data extract May 15) .
thank you
May 16, 2015 at 18:20
Not sure I understand but you have the data…
May 16, 2015 at 17:58
Hi Simon,
Thank you for your effort doing this. i have been looking at the data you have published and i have a question. I hope to make myself understood…
i’m talking about eu.
I have seen in the excel that (excluding cases “at nvc”) there are 7906 cases that have been processed at this time (2976 with only one person and 4930 cases with derivates)
there are 21958 cases selected.
and if i’m not wrong, cases “at nvc” are all the cases. those that sent the d260 form and those that didnt do it. (10010 at this time)
so if we have 21958 and have processed 7906 (21958-7906=14052), the cases “at nvc” should be 14052. but the data shows 10010. then, what happened with the others 4042?.
Are the 10010 cases “at nvc” those that sent the ds260 form?
i’m trying to see light for my 39xxx and find explanation or hope.
Thank you in advance
May 16, 2015 at 18:18
NVC cases don’t show any family members – we only see family once the case is scheduled (READY)
May 16, 2015 at 18:28
oh, i know that. sorry i’m not explaining very well.
the whole 21958 cases dont show family either, do it?
so if 7906 have been processed already and we have now 10010 cases at nvc. it is possible that that number shows all the cases that sent the ds form? o is it possible that in that 10010 there were cases that never sent the form.
i wonder this because it doesnt match 21958 – 7906 != 10010.
is a mess to me!
Thank you
May 16, 2015 at 19:10
Ahhh OK I see why you are confused. The 21958 is the cases for EU up to the max cn of 45006. However, this file only includes cases already current – up to 34125. So – the cases between 34125 and 45006 are missing – 4038 cases. I sometimes publish those future cases – but not every file – it adds a long time to the extract process.
May 16, 2015 at 19:18
ah, ok, then there are 14052 numbers at nvc more or less.
oh god.. hope to see my number current!
Thanks
May 16, 2015 at 17:31
Thank you Mr. Britsimon
May 16, 2015 at 17:27
Hi Brit, with the recent data, does 2015 af75,000 stand a chance?
May 16, 2015 at 17:56
To be perfectly blunt, no. I’m sorry. 🙁
May 16, 2015 at 17:59
And 52*** af
May 16, 2015 at 18:19
Excellent chance
May 16, 2015 at 20:52
Hiii my beloved bro the man of God sir brit simon how are u doing ur the most good person thank u for all.me east africa Eritrean my CN also 2015AF52××× This is safe or what pls tell me ur answer or idea. may Lord Jesus be bless u!!!
May 16, 2015 at 21:04
That has an excellent chance!
May 16, 2015 at 16:51
Dear BritSimon, what do think about EU 375**, is it safe CN?
May 16, 2015 at 17:01
Hard to say “safe” after the last VB – but pretty much safe – I would be amazed if we don’t beat that number!
May 16, 2015 at 17:08
Thanks!
May 16, 2015 at 16:14
Hu brit
what about Af66***
Morocco
I have a chance ????
May 16, 2015 at 16:10
Af dv 2015 51 xxx is safe?
May 16, 2015 at 16:31
I think so.
May 16, 2015 at 17:02
??
May 16, 2015 at 16:05
Dear Mr. Britsimon,
I kind of hate to ask this question but Do you think AS109XX have a chance? If yest will it be in August OR September?
Thank you so much for your time, really appreciate it.
May 16, 2015 at 16:31
It still has a chance but IF so it would be in September.
May 16, 2015 at 15:50
After these data do u think they w ill reach my CN af 578XX ?
May 16, 2015 at 16:27
That still has a good chance.
May 16, 2015 at 17:26
hi mr Brit. how much case number have we between 36500-67000？ thank for your answer.
May 16, 2015 at 17:55
10155 – about 19000 people.
May 16, 2015 at 15:36
Hi
Thanks for the data. Earlier you said the derivatives rate is 1.88 according to CEAC. Is that the average rate? Because, 39,266 X 1.88 = 73,821 while at an average of 1.5 we get 39,266 X 1.5=58,899 which is closer to the total cases selected.
What do you think is it 1.88 or 1.5?
Thanks
Nice weekend
May 16, 2015 at 15:44
The derivative rate is increasing – you can see that yourself by checking the data. Exclude at NVC and in Transit cases and for AF you are left with 20080 people on 10809 cases – 1.86 in this file. Why is it higher than 58000/39266? Marriages and babies.
May 16, 2015 at 15:51
Do you mean the there is only 10809 real cases over the cutt off 36500 of last vb?
May 16, 2015 at 16:28
No, I am talking about a completely different thing – the derivative rate.
May 16, 2015 at 15:13
Hello Brit,
So, with that low number of visas issued, do you believe that will impact the high numbers in a positive or negative manner? What about my all time concern case number AF447xx? Do you believe it is still safe? Waiting eagerly for your response.
Regards,
Sue…..
May 16, 2015 at 15:32
Your number is still safe…
May 16, 2015 at 15:01
Thanks Mr.Brit
May 16, 2015 at 14:05
Hi Simon! Is there any hope for SA14xx? Thanks!
May 16, 2015 at 15:34
Yes I think some hope still…
May 16, 2015 at 13:32
I have been estimating/observing the dv progress since the beginning, and I am wondering whether the months of April to July could be the buffer zone( WHERE THEY ARE CLEARING MOST OF THE BACKLOGS) before we start to see the last two big final jumps. Mine af58xxx
Since April to date, the VB has hardly moved from af30s
May 16, 2015 at 15:37
The backlogs are with us until the end to some extent – it isn’t a buffer zone as such – it is simply that early progress appeared fast ONLY because the backlog meant current cases were not ready for interview yet – so they had to go to higher numbers….
May 16, 2015 at 12:06
Im sorry to ask you this since Im away from my wifi and computer for a while (in my village and using 2G network). How many visas are left for Nepal to reach the limit of 3500? And to issue those visas how many cns are required?
Thank you.
May 16, 2015 at 16:02
Around 1000 to 1100. Nepal is likely to cutoff before 7500 now.
May 16, 2015 at 11:35
I read comments on the previous article ,and you predicted for 2015AS9xxx to be interviewed by August, does that mean AS10xxx is almost sure to get interviewed in September (which means safe-more or less- )
?
May 16, 2015 at 16:07
Well things have changed a bit, but Yes that is about right.
May 16, 2015 at 10:18
Mr. Britsimon,
I saw you said you are reluctant to give predictions, but please I beg you I must ask, what you think final cutoff for Asia in light of Iran getting 2700-3000 visa. I’ve been dreaming of this visa and now hope is fading.
May 16, 2015 at 16:12
My reluctance is not because I enjoy keeping a secret, it is because I don’t know it well enough to predict something. The final cutoff is published in 6 weeks from now!
What is your CN?
May 16, 2015 at 16:48
Of course I understand. Thanks for your efforts. My cn is in high 10,000s.
May 16, 2015 at 17:00
OK – so yeah you are in a “good chance but nervous” range. I can understand how you feel.
Only 6 weeks. You have waited a year, you can do 6 more weeks.
May 16, 2015 at 17:16
Thank you so much. I owe you a lot.
May 16, 2015 at 09:41
Iranian got 1096 until now are they still have time to get another 1700-2000 visa?
May 16, 2015 at 16:14
They added over 500 in 6 weeks. Nearly 90 per week. There are around 19 weeks left and the last four weeks will see a lot of activity with APs being rushed through. So yeah, there is time.
May 16, 2015 at 09:21
Ok i officially give up now, AS10k 🙁
May 16, 2015 at 11:30
Same here . ugh >.<
May 16, 2015 at 12:00
What you mean? Even if your number come current in August / September you do not want to attend the interview. Are you donate your visa chance to some one. 🙂
May 16, 2015 at 12:43
?
May 16, 2015 at 13:20
@Idea Mani, do you think there’s hope for us? what cn do you think asia will reach?
May 16, 2015 at 14:23
As BristSimon explain, still you have good chance. In my point of view ROA will over take your CN.
May 16, 2015 at 13:53
There are a chance as britsimon said..hay also i have the same number AS10***
May 16, 2015 at 08:54
Also. Ethipia to be with the rest of Af. Is this good or bad for the rest of selectees from af?
Thanks again
May 16, 2015 at 16:21
It is what it is – not good or bad.
May 16, 2015 at 08:50
The number of Af cases is higher that the one it appeared in the last VB. Could you pls explain tha thanks
May 16, 2015 at 16:22
Could you be more clear/specific which numbers you mean?
May 16, 2015 at 08:45
i am just reading the comments
May 16, 2015 at 08:20
Hu brit
what about Af66***
Morocco
I have a chance ????
May 16, 2015 at 16:23
Still a small chance, but it is risky…
May 16, 2015 at 17:06
Thanks again
May 16, 2015 at 17:12
Hey nana ,I’m also from Morocco .. here :
{وَإِذَا سَأَلَكَ عِبَادِي عَنِّي فَإِنِّي قَرِيبٌ أُجِيبُ دَعْوَةَ الدَّاعِ إِذَا دَعَانِ فَلْيَسْتَجِيبُوا لِي وَلْيُؤْمِنُوا بِي لَعَلَّهُمْ يَرْشُدُونَ}[البقرة: 186]
May 16, 2015 at 08:07
Now Mr Brit what about my case number AF624xx?? can i have chance for interview? thank you
May 16, 2015 at 16:24
Still a chance, but it is risky…
May 16, 2015 at 08:05
hi brit congratulations for the great work, so compared to the data of May 15, do you think my AF415XX CN, will interview in August ?. thank you.
May 16, 2015 at 16:24
There is a good chance of that, and if not then September for sure.
May 16, 2015 at 07:57
1- do you think AS103** safe ?
2- and do you think this coming VB will be the largest jump in this year ?
3- we saw in the last year spetemper was little jump for asia (( only 650 )) like any month
the oppiset of august which jump (( 3200 )) do you think this year its the same . mean the only big jump we’re going to see is this month . august month . like 2014 ?
May 16, 2015 at 16:25
1. I hesitate to say safe – but an excellent chance.
2. Maybe
3. We should see a bit of a jump but I don’t expect to see 3000+
May 16, 2015 at 07:53
Now. In nepal there have any chances for 7780
May 16, 2015 at 16:26
That number is looking risky now…
May 16, 2015 at 07:38
I understand. I guess it is a definite end of hope for us then, we would need cca. 7500 to squeeze in, it looks very unlikely to happen. Thank you once again for your quick answer, you’ve been most helpful.
May 16, 2015 at 06:34
Hi, thank you for all your effort and everything that you do to make things easier for the people stuck in this marathon race… Do you think the low jump in June might be interpreted as a preparation for declaring the following months current? Our number is EU43xxx, and we guess it’s our only chance, we doubt that we would otherwise get our turn for the interview. Thank you.
May 16, 2015 at 07:11
Hi – no I don’t think so. If you look at the current visas and the current pace it looks like this for the VBs we have had.
End of May – 11500
End of June – 13500
End of July – 15500 (although the latest VB being low might reduce that).
Then how many more do they need for EU. If we take 20k as the highest possible quota (at 53000 globally), we should deduct at least 1000 for AoS cases (perhaps more).
So – the target in CEAC is around 18500. So – they only need 3000 more issued in 2 months. That would be 1 month normal pace and one month with little or no VB progression (where backlog and AP cases produce 1000 visas). So – that means they will need enough cases to issue about 2000 visas in August and some of those will be from backlog cases.
That means there is no need to make all the remaining 3640 cases current (about 6000) people.
May 16, 2015 at 12:02
Hi Simon,
I think for end of July you are overstating the number of visas to be issued by 500. I understand you are conservative, but even with 75% historical approval rate we get to 13,050 end of June and 15,000 end of July (maybe less considering low increase in last VB). So it seems around 3,500 visas to be issued in 2 final months. this is just an opinion, I can be wrong..
May 16, 2015 at 12:20
furthermore, in your post https://britsimonsays.com/the-regional-quota-mystery-solved/
the EU limit is 19.5k not considering AOS cases. Why you reduce this by a whole 1000 visas to 18.5k?
May 16, 2015 at 15:30
I’m looking at pace – EU took 2141 in April and look set to beat 2000 again in May. But sure, I could be a few hundred overstated, and yes I am being a little conservative.
May 16, 2015 at 15:44
at the pace of 2000 visas per month we get to 19350 by the end of September, which is even less than 19.5k published in your post.
So are you conservative by a whole 1000 visas?
isn’t is over-conservative?
May 16, 2015 at 15:50
Just this morning DV4Roger said this “I expect 18,700-19,600 visas for EU region in CEAC.” So no – I am not being over conservative. 🙂
May 16, 2015 at 16:04
Could you please show DV4Roger’s post?
And what made DV4Roger change his estimation?
Thanks!
May 16, 2015 at 16:30
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-winners-meet-here.11/page-177#post-2401085
He hasn’t changed, recently – he did update just after I posted my post you refer to – but I also thing you are missing something about AoS.
May 16, 2015 at 06:22
What do you think about the cutoff africa??
May 16, 2015 at 06:23
After 2NLs….
May 16, 2015 at 05:47
Thank you for your effort Simon! Would you mind if you include data from the US consulate in Montreal, Canada in your next update? I didn’t get to see data from there in your past publications.
May 16, 2015 at 06:19
Montreal is in the files – MTL is the embassy code.
May 16, 2015 at 05:44
Bu now still there is hope for as201500011500
May 16, 2015 at 06:19
Yes.