IMPORTANT NOTE:
Since I ran this extract on Friday (12th June) there has been NO updates to the number of visas issued in several regions (I checked EU, AS and OC). Since this is extremely UNLIKELY (that NO visas have been issued) this means the CEAC system is being impacted by the systems issue that is affecting biometric data collection and visa issuing. This issue occurred on June 9th and is not expected to be resolved this week.
What this means is that the data shown below ONLY represented progress from June 4 to June 9. Since the embassies have continued processing cases that means the CEAC data is understated – more visas will have been issued than the numbers shown.
Thanks DoS for another bit of IT introduced farce….
This is a “mid month” update to CEAC data. Because we had a late 2NL update, I have already published a CEAC file after the end of last month – so this is just an interim file – and it actually represents just under half of the month.
As we can see there are still 782 cases globally marked as “in Transit”. THese cases will be adding family member numbers when they are updated by the embassies.
Here is the data.
July 23, 2015 at 05:35
If you are in my position. What is option you will choose?
July 23, 2015 at 05:48
I processed AoS.
July 23, 2015 at 06:09
Thanks a lot for your effort.
July 22, 2015 at 20:00
Hi Brit
Thank you for your efforts.
I am from Africa with Number of 43000 and now in the US. I decided to apply for Adjustment of status; however, I know that my chance little bit low. Do you think still I have time to Adjust my status or better apply through US Embassy (Outside U.S.)
July 23, 2015 at 01:59
It has to be your choice. There are pros and cons to each method, but if you can adjust, that is typically the best way.
July 23, 2015 at 02:29
I agree with you, but you think take long time to adjust my status or in case of DV lottery the process is fast to adjust my status (i.e, 8 weeks enough to AOS and make interview).
July 23, 2015 at 02:37
Some AoS cases are slow, some are fast. It is uncertain. CP is more clear cut, but the chances of rejection are higher for CP.
July 23, 2015 at 05:09
What is mean by CP?
July 23, 2015 at 05:11
Consular processing. That is interviewing at any embassy or consulate outside of the USA.
June 24, 2015 at 18:05
Simon
When we will see the next CEAC file ,,,, Thanks
June 24, 2015 at 18:44
Working on it
June 23, 2015 at 15:16
Hi Simon
i want to ask you about point i noticed in CEAC file
the Max CN for EU,AS.. is 45006, is this mean all cases in between till 89799 which is 44793 are AF cases??!!
June 23, 2015 at 17:20
No. Each region has its own set of numbers starting from 1. There could be an EU1 and an AF1 and an AS1. AF region has cases from 1 to 89799 – but there are holes (gaps) between the numbers).
June 22, 2015 at 18:59
whenthe next CEAC file will be puplish ,,,, Thanks
June 22, 2015 at 19:56
After they fix the technical issues
June 22, 2015 at 13:42
Hi im waiting for the date of interview i check it everyday but nothing is change in the dvlottery the site that says im winner 2015 37 k eu
June 22, 2015 at 13:45
The 2nls have not been sent yet. I expect them to go out later this week.
June 21, 2015 at 06:29
I hope 2nl for August start coming out on monday
June 20, 2015 at 20:05
Hello Britsimon
I played the lottery VISA USA in October 2014 and I am winning the lottery VISA USA in May 2015 passed,
My Case Number: 2016AF000 *****
It is a big brother to me fill my DS-260 form.
Everything is perfect at the other go but this is noiveau the answers he began. It’s good or not
Q: In which occupation do you intend to work in the U.S.? A: OTHER
Q: Specify Other: A: STUDY AND WORK
I hope this does not go caused me to another problem?
Answer me please
June 20, 2015 at 20:41
No it won’t be a problem.
June 20, 2015 at 20:48
Thank you very much for having me answer as fast, but I am student in Benin, I hope all will be well for me to get my VISA in 2016
June 20, 2015 at 20:50
I think at this level, he had to choose STUDENT
June 20, 2015 at 08:38
hi mr bri I am one of the winners of 2016 and my CN is AF00201632xxxxx when can I take an interview.
June 20, 2015 at 15:12
Because you left too many XXX I cannot tell whether your number is 1632 or 16320 range. So – your interview could be October (with the smaller number) or around November/December (with the larger number).
June 19, 2015 at 11:48
hello Brit, thank for all you do for us. God bless you
June 18, 2015 at 10:13
Hi
When am I going to receive the second letter of the interview, my case 415xx
Thank u
June 18, 2015 at 13:44
In the next week or so.
June 17, 2015 at 17:14
Hi Brit, with this “No Show” issue, is it possible for Africa to go current in the final VB? If so, does my case number stand a chance? AF74300?
June 17, 2015 at 19:09
No, AF cannot go current, and sadly I don’t believe your number will be reached.
June 17, 2015 at 13:08
My case number is as139xx. Can ihave chance for interveiw iam from uae..
June 17, 2015 at 13:31
I think your number is too high.
June 17, 2015 at 12:42
simon, thanks for your affort so far. due the problem face with kcc means that cn af66xxx don’t even need to wait and see? And you have and idea whether kcc never update for one month in the 2015 program?
June 17, 2015 at 13:34
Someone with 66xxx will obviously have a look at the final VB regardless of what I say…
This non update thing has not happened that I know of.
June 17, 2015 at 09:59
Does the system issue affect the final VB?
June 17, 2015 at 13:41
I don’t think it will affect the final VB
June 17, 2015 at 09:52
according to my calculations the last cat-off of VB for AF will be around 69 000 – 72 000
June 17, 2015 at 10:03
HI Mohammed
Could you explain how did you perform this calculation in details
Tnanks
June 17, 2015 at 13:40
Which calculation? The extract?
June 17, 2015 at 13:42
That is very optimistic.
June 17, 2015 at 06:51
Hi
OK if u say all these technical prob will not affect the 2nl then when do u think the 2nl will b sent cus its almost a week now since the vb was release.thanks
June 17, 2015 at 07:07
simon
what are the factors my case number needs to get current AF66xxx.
Thanks
June 17, 2015 at 14:09
I don’t think that can happen.
June 17, 2015 at 14:35
Simon
you used to say wait and seee to my CN , Althou now i can see KCC is so far from the qouta qhat made you change your range ??!!
June 17, 2015 at 14:55
There are several things happening. One is the no shows which is actually good for high case numbers., However the bigger factor has been the derivative rate increase. It started at 1.5 for AF region and now we are seeing an average of over 2 people per case. Additionally, the backlog has continued well beyond where I expected which means that early case numbers are still taking interview slots and being issued visas.
June 17, 2015 at 15:01
Regading the No show , how many case recorded as now show in AF till now ?? also till when KCC will consider this matter couse i beilive they are so way back even to submit thier DS-260
Thanks For you time
June 17, 2015 at 17:09
WE cannot quantify the no shows.
June 17, 2015 at 14:08
2nls usually go out 1 to 2 weeks after the VB, so they are not late.
June 17, 2015 at 05:36
Britsimon,are all this technical issues going to affect people expecting 2nl soon?
June 17, 2015 at 06:09
I don’t think so.
June 17, 2015 at 02:51
Hello Brit,
I am not sure whether it is appropriate to put my question here.
I have a question. I had a medical examination, and the doctor said that my CXR findings suggestive of tb disease. It needs about 2 months to have the result of sputum smears and culture. I have my case scheduled for interview on mid July 2015.
My question is how to inform my case to the consular about this delay.
Thanks
June 17, 2015 at 04:35
Don’t inform the embassy, and do not try and reschedule. It is better to go on AP due to incomplete medical results, than to reschedule. Once your medical is ready you will submit the report and hopefully the AP will be cleared immediately.
June 17, 2015 at 01:15
Hi Brit
Thank you for your efforts.
I’m from Iran with Number of 80xx and now in the US. I decided to apply for AoS, however I know that my chance is less than %10. Today I read a post of DOS page in Facebook about system crash.
My questions are:
1-Does it affect the cut-off number?
2-Does it affect AOS process?
June 17, 2015 at 01:20
1. I don’t think so.
2. Almost certainly not – different systems.
June 16, 2015 at 22:10
according to these data , seems that KCC wont be able to spend all the quota for AF … if they will fall in such situation what would be their steps to avoid wasting visas ?
June 16, 2015 at 22:23
THey have taken steps already – the 44250 represents a big increase, and I expect them to add 10k PLUS for the next VB (depending on embassy capacity).
Don’t forget the target is only 50k globally.
June 16, 2015 at 21:47
Is any chances of case number AF70500
June 16, 2015 at 22:22
Sadly, no.
June 16, 2015 at 21:03
hello sir
so we need to patient after CEAC -DATA july to know the cut-off ?
June 16, 2015 at 21:21
In July (around the 9th or 10th) the VB with the final cutoffs will be published.
June 16, 2015 at 23:25
what do you thinkg fot the cut-off ? sir
June 17, 2015 at 00:48
I’m going to wait and see….
June 16, 2015 at 20:31
hi sir, what is the meaning of ‘at nvc(national visa center)’ ?
June 16, 2015 at 20:35
IT is simply the beginning status – it represents cases that have not yet been scheduled – either because the selectee is not yet current, was late to submit their DS260, or has decided to not proceed with processing their case.
June 16, 2015 at 20:51
thanks for your valuable replay 🙂
June 16, 2015 at 20:11
Hello…with the vb of july ,my case is current so i am waiting just the 2nl…does the problem that they have affect to my case? (all cases appears i mean) when can it comes?
June 16, 2015 at 19:59
it seems like there’s hope for cn no more than AS201500011200 ?
June 16, 2015 at 20:02
I would not agree that there is no hope….
June 16, 2015 at 19:55
hello sir
is this data make any changes To last cut off for AF or effect ?
thanks
June 16, 2015 at 20:04
THe data is obviously feeding in to the final cut off calculation – but there is nothing not already considered in my estimation…
June 16, 2015 at 19:23
All US embassies websites are reporting that the Bureau of Consular Affairs is experiencing technical problems. This could be causing the 2NL delays, I hope this gets fixed soon, so that future DV interviews are done in time.
Link: http://travel.state.gov/content/travel/english/news/technological-systems-issue.html
June 16, 2015 at 20:31
No, the 2NL delays were experience at the end of last month. This technical issue started on June 9. They are unrelated.
June 16, 2015 at 19:06
hi brit …
thanks for your job…
i would like to know why it’s only now that kcc noticed the “no show”???
are these data encouraging for AF area??
thanks for reply.
June 16, 2015 at 20:30
I don’t know what analysis KCC have been doing. AS months have gone on the gap has increased. IN less than 4 weeks we will know what this means for AF.
June 16, 2015 at 18:50
Hi bret,
My number is AS117xx
When can i know if there is no chance for my case number.
Thank you
June 16, 2015 at 20:28
less than 4 weeks time.
June 16, 2015 at 18:47
1- how you read IRAN AP in this information still going faster than last year ?
or you cant reading before 2nd letter
2- is it true that you cant read IRAN AP ” which asia depend on ” before 2 month at least . and the final number will puplish in only just 1 month ?
3- what your say of number higher than 10.000 . in fact mine is AS10XXX still have hope
is it too high or it has good chance ?
tell me the truth . please 🙂
4 you said about asia in your post named ” AM I SAFE ” IRAN is the key for asia . if iran took 2500 to 2700 the final number should be from 11xxx to 12xxx . but if it took ” 3000 ” the final one ” in unknown rang ”
with knowing ” in this case ” that under than 10000 still ” pretty safe ” and 10000 or more you are in risky rang and as you would say ” wait and see rang ”
my quastion is not about clear information . is about ” predction ” in your knowlge in this field
in your opinein many visa iran will take ?
.
thank you for your hard work 🙂
June 16, 2015 at 20:27
All your questions boil down to the same question – will you get your interview or not. The reality is – neither I nor anyone else can know for sure. You are going to have to wait and see.
June 16, 2015 at 18:35
Hey britsimon thx for ur job plz my case number 5531* a have chance or no thx
June 16, 2015 at 20:25
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 16, 2015 at 18:33
Dear BritSimon,
My indebtedness to you and your effort/insightful comments. I have successfully received my Diversity Visa. May god bless you, Thanks Jagan from Nepal.
June 16, 2015 at 20:46
Congratulations Jagan!
June 17, 2015 at 22:16
PLS MAY I KNOW THE DOCUMENTS U PROVIDED
June 16, 2015 at 18:13
any chance of CN AF 58xxx
June 16, 2015 at 20:47
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 16, 2015 at 17:47
wt is the different between Readsy & NVC ??
June 16, 2015 at 20:48
The ready case has been scheduled, the NVC case has not.
June 16, 2015 at 17:24
Should we expect your predictions ,sir ?!
June 16, 2015 at 20:52
No – don’t “expect” them. I may not predict the last VB at all…
June 16, 2015 at 17:17
Second thoughts 😀
If what i said in my comment is true , and Iran AP can’t resolve in Sept , that means they will leave about 1000 visas for ROA ? .. please say i’m right lol
IF I’m right ,that would be GREAT for high case number __ since the density will be 150 per thousand (no hard feelings for Iranian people)
June 16, 2015 at 20:53
My thoughts explained here.
https://britsimonsays.com/asia-estimate/
June 16, 2015 at 17:15
Is any chances of case number 7780 from nepal
June 16, 2015 at 17:21
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 16, 2015 at 17:59
I think that might be too high.
June 16, 2015 at 17:08
Thank you sir
so ASIA issues about 500 visas per ‘half’ month = 1000 per month ,right ?!
that is exactly what they need to do to get to 8500 visas by the end of Sept. (3.5 months x 1000 visas + 5000)
does that ‘sadly’ crush every high CN’s hope for an interview ? ( ”AS10999>” for instance) ?
June 16, 2015 at 17:58
AS has not seen 1000 issued in recent months – but that is about what they need to issue during the remaining months.
I don’t think the game is over for high CNs just yet in AS….
June 16, 2015 at 17:03
Peace be upon you, my problem in the performance of 120 Dolarrgem I was doing the process the result is work and what is unacceptable Thanks
June 16, 2015 at 17:55
I don’t understand your point/question.
June 16, 2015 at 16:57
Thanks Britsimon