PLEASE READ THE TEXT BELOW RATHER THAN ASKING QUESTIONS I HAVE ALREADY COVERED.
As most of you will know there have been technical problems affecting the visa issuing systems that are being resolved at this time. Those same problems had an impact on the CEAC data system that I use to extract visa issue data. So – the CEAC data that I published on June 12 was understated because of the system problems which started on June 9. Over the last two days there have been updates to the CEAC data system and in fact the 2NL “in Transit” rows have been updated – some very quickly marked as received by the various embassies.
Just a note about “at NVC”, “in Transit” and “READY” status types. The standard starting point for all case is at NVC. Once the case is scheduled (and usually immediately after the 2NLs are sent) the CEAC system is updated to in Transit (meaning the case is being passed to the embassy. Then the case is marked as received by the embassy and the case then shows READY status.
So – I have extracted a CEAC file and published it. However, the issued numbers are clearly impacted still (some updates, but not all). This means the issued number is inaccurate. We can not deduce too much by these files although it is possible to see the 2NL volume and work out response rates in the regions (apart from AS). The response rates are best measured on cases that are newly current.
A couple of notes – AF region has had a very large number of interviews scheduled – well over 2000. This is what I had hoped and is a sign that KCC are trying to compensate (finally) for the no shows. Also the AF response rate for the numbers that just went current is 60%. I had earlier speculated that the real response rate (ignoring certain high volume, agent controlled countries) for AF would end between 60 and 65% – so that turned out to be accurate. The final number should be in the predicted range.
EU also had a good month for 2NLs – and had a newly current response rate of 50%.
I am hopeful that 2NLs will be sent out tomorrow (Thursday), or Friday. However, the technical problems seem to be having an impact still.
Many people are asking why I am not predicting the final numbers – I have fully described my reasons here. I have already posted a fairly detailed description of what ranges I think will be safe or risky. So – please read those posts rather than asking me for final VB predictions or asking is your number safe – thank you!
Here is the data.
June 25, 2015 at 05:59
Don’t you ever sleep :)) thank you very much for your efforts !!!
June 25, 2015 at 06:22
Lolz,he does but still he sacrifes most of his time for us,this is just so sweet of him,I can’t wait to meet this nice man someday and thank him for everything
June 25, 2015 at 05:59
thanks mr.Brit.
June 25, 2015 at 06:17
Ok thanks for all your help britsimon,well most of our questions about the 2nl are cuz we need that to schedule a medical appointment in time so we go and do them and get results before time for interview,plus other documents
June 25, 2015 at 14:01
Yes – all applicants have that same need – the doctors should be able to accommodate you in good time. If you need to book travel arrangements you could call KCC to get your date.
June 25, 2015 at 06:37
Thank you!
But i still dont understand well the data. Sorry 🙁
the 50% response and the total “ready” and “in transit” (eu) are bad for high numbers? or not?
June 25, 2015 at 13:59
We can only wait and see…
June 26, 2015 at 06:06
ok… already is the last bulletin. Only (about) two more weeks for waiting.
Thank you
June 25, 2015 at 06:51
thanks very much for your big effort and the update, god bless you 🙂
June 25, 2015 at 07:17
Hi brit with the growth of the response rate you just stated that the final number should be in the predicted range do you mean the final VB will not go over 55000 for Af region ?
June 25, 2015 at 07:33
I’ve seen the VB of July and August cut off foe Af is 44250 goodluck to those who are not locked out and more chance to those who will try again
June 25, 2015 at 13:55
No that is not what I meant.
June 25, 2015 at 07:32
Do you think it will hit 66xxx??
June 25, 2015 at 13:54
I don’t think so – read the am I safe link.
June 25, 2015 at 07:47
AF = 120000 * 60% / 100 = 72000 weeeeeeeeeeey i current bingoooooo bingooooooooo
June 25, 2015 at 08:22
Wt is 120000??? how do you calculate this ?
June 25, 2015 at 13:53
It is inaccurate.
June 25, 2015 at 11:57
can u explain u mean africa cut off for septembre will be 72000???
June 25, 2015 at 13:35
I cannot explain that because I do not believe that….
June 25, 2015 at 13:53
That is wrong in several ways – and the conclusion is not correct.
June 25, 2015 at 08:48
Hello Bruit just to know if thé tome running out of thé DS260 sending are still available
June 25, 2015 at 13:51
There is plenty of time for DV2016 winners, none for DV2015 winners
June 25, 2015 at 09:12
Thank you for the update Simon! Just one question: why can’t we deduce the response rate of AS?
June 25, 2015 at 13:50
Ahhh sorry – I should have explained. The most reliable way to calculate the response rate for the “next” batch is looking at the batch that just went current. However, since AS has Nepal being limited, the calculation is not as easy as the other regions. It can be done, but I was too tired and the method arrives at an estimate instead of a certainty.
June 25, 2015 at 15:37
I understand. Thanks for all the efforts you’ve been making already! Anyway, a little more than 2 weeks and our fates will be decided.
June 25, 2015 at 09:42
No use of these statistics.. Because now everything is clear, Large numbers above 69000, We must forget DV lottery, Unfortunately we disappointed and lost dreams . And now .before the latest Bulletin we wallow between doubt and expectations and imagination ………. They’ve crashed our morale
my number AF 70500
Thanks Simon ‘ve crashed my dreams
bye
June 25, 2015 at 13:48
Good luck in whatever you do next.
June 25, 2015 at 10:43
thank you for all Brit because you really do a lot to us that God makes you a hundredfold, or hide you told us and we will come to you one day you say thank you and reward you and flooded gift that you may enjoy the fruit of so many effort you blind to your little brothers, sisters and children we sommes.encore BRAVO to you.
June 25, 2015 at 13:46
🙂
June 25, 2015 at 10:49
thanks for the information,is it 60% of 89 cn or 120 cn?
June 25, 2015 at 10:52
i mean 60% of 89000cn or 60% of 120000
June 25, 2015 at 13:45
Neither. AF has approx. 40,000 case numbers – 60% of those will respond
June 25, 2015 at 10:59
For AF Between 53000-58000
June 25, 2015 at 11:42
plz brit is this data give more chance now to 56340?? or less chance can plz answer me
June 26, 2015 at 07:46
How did you calculate this Rafik ?
June 25, 2015 at 11:26
HI I AM FROM NEPAL N I AM WAITEING MY 2NL BUT I SAW A JUNE BUT I DID”T UNDERSTAND PLZ GIIVE ME SOME HINDS TO UNDERSTAND SOME THING …..MY CS NO IS 8*** CROSS ……..
June 25, 2015 at 13:42
I think Nepal cannot reach 8000….
June 25, 2015 at 11:43
plz brit is this data give more chance now to 56340?? or less chance can plz answer me
June 25, 2015 at 13:40
The chance has not changed from this data…
June 25, 2015 at 11:45
Hi! Great work as usual! Could you please tell how many ‘in transit’ and ‘ready’ cases are from backlog in UE for August? Many thanks!
June 25, 2015 at 13:36
I will be looking at that today.
June 25, 2015 at 11:53
and i have other question africa ready is 10106 its means that we will add it to the issued visa??? its means africa now give 20000 visa???
June 25, 2015 at 13:36
No – not all those cases will be approved.
June 25, 2015 at 12:05
Thanks mr @BritSimon
Please any infos about IRAN AP ?! (i’m ROA)
June 25, 2015 at 12:08
I see somebody ask to much and confusin but Mr britsimon make everything clear
just wait till last vb go out
June 25, 2015 at 12:10
Thanks mr @BritSimon
Please any infos about IRAN AP ?! (i’m ROA)
June 25, 2015 at 13:31
No. The lack of updated data is masking information about that.
June 28, 2015 at 00:01
There was a batch clearance in Apr-May. There might be another one before the end of this month, the number is unknown though. My guess it’s 100+. Just a gut feeling, we shall see in the next couple of days!
June 28, 2015 at 00:18
That’s right .
God bless you!!!
June 25, 2015 at 14:32
Hi M.Brit
When we will see the final Result of DV2015 from KCC ?
what is your predictions about AF ?
Thank you for your efforts
June 25, 2015 at 14:37
It will be almost the end of the year before we see final DV2015 data – but of course the CEAC data will be available immediately after September 30.
I am not predicting AF – as I discuss in the article above and linked posts.
June 25, 2015 at 15:28
hi brit
do you see AF reaching 60% which means that VB is going to rise to 65000 on CN?
pls to hear
June 25, 2015 at 15:49
The higher the response rate the LOWER the final number. As for my predictions – I have said why I will not predict the final numbers beyond what I stated in the am I safe post.
June 25, 2015 at 15:36
Hi M.Brit
are the numbers of AF region lower than 44250 and they are at NVC means that they are from Egypt ?
June 25, 2015 at 15:52
No, some (most) will be people who decided not to send in their DS260, or sent it in very late.
June 25, 2015 at 16:57
my CN at NVC i complete my DS260 at 19 May 2014
my CN is AF29xxx from Egypt is there any problem ?
is is at NVC because and not Scheduled yet?
June 25, 2015 at 17:33
Because Egypt numbers are lower – you are showing “at NVC” because your case is not current. You will have to wait and see if they make your number current in the final VB – in 2 to 3 weeks time.
June 25, 2015 at 17:38
HI RAFIK WHERE ARE FROM EXACTLY ??
June 25, 2015 at 23:50
Meriam give me ur face book
June 25, 2015 at 18:09
so my CN still in the approximate range AF5879X
June 25, 2015 at 18:14
HELLO,where are from exactaly Rafik ?
June 25, 2015 at 22:51
From Morocco ..
Give me your Facebook/Email .. I” add you
June 25, 2015 at 18:49
will every case in tansit receive the 2nd letter for sure??
June 25, 2015 at 21:35
Yes.
June 25, 2015 at 19:30
Please mr.simon my CN is AF602xx please tell me if i still have a chance to be current next month?Please answer me
June 25, 2015 at 21:35
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 25, 2015 at 20:28
Thanks Bri…
Yesterday, my CN status was “In Transit” but now it says “READY” even though I have not received my 2NL.. what’s going on? Please advise.
June 25, 2015 at 21:35
That is the correct update – it means the embassy marked the file as received. The 2NL should arrive within days.
June 25, 2015 at 21:46
Same as me, I think this means your case is already at the embassy, wait, you will get 2NL very soon…
June 25, 2015 at 21:42
Simom, do u think kcc can add up to 22k for the final vb? How do u look at the respond rate, high or low?
June 26, 2015 at 00:42
Same answer I have given you before – we can only wait and see.
The AF response rate is going to be over 60% for the next batch of new cases. That is in line with what I had based my earlier comments on.
June 26, 2015 at 01:54
How about nepal any new surprises that could happen do u think it could cross 75xx?
June 27, 2015 at 15:39
wait and see
June 26, 2015 at 02:18
I am also from nepal and worried about my cn 78##
June 27, 2015 at 15:39
wait and see
June 26, 2015 at 03:06
ready does it mine , they are ready for interview or sumbted the ds260?
June 27, 2015 at 15:37
They have submitted the DS260 AND they have been scheduled for interview.
June 28, 2015 at 01:16
so sir
the totale issued + ready = 49XXX
so the cutt off will be under 53XXX ?
June 28, 2015 at 15:10
No.
June 26, 2015 at 07:06
tx BritSimon thank u so much but i hope can nepal cross 85** or not i am so unluckey …can u tall me can nepal reach 85** cross plz repaly,,,,,
June 27, 2015 at 15:27
No – I don’t think Nepal can go that high.
June 26, 2015 at 07:24
hi brit. my sister and her husband has arrived in the state, she wrote me asking for a certain number that they supposed to used to paid the 165 green card fees,. i have no idea on what that numbers is some have said to me that it the the case number other have said it the confirmation number of the ds 260 form that begin with “AA” pleased help my confustion
June 27, 2015 at 15:26
I think you are talking about the Alien number – it appears on the visa on the passport I believe.
June 26, 2015 at 11:13
Hello simon I m from Nepal. We had an interview today 26 june. The CO said she approved our case but at the end she said she cant guranter VISA as they are having Visa issuance problem due to system error. What we can expect now?
June 26, 2015 at 11:26
((40 000 * 60 / 100) * 90 000)/40 000 = 54 000 , according to this data for AF that’s the last number they can reach by the end of September
June 26, 2015 at 23:29
That is not how things work.
June 26, 2015 at 11:33
how many visas will be left for africa at the end of august??
June 26, 2015 at 11:55
hello brit can the hit af 58000 or that is too optimistic refering to the clear vision that u have after you saw the 2nls ?
June 26, 2015 at 23:27
wait and see
June 26, 2015 at 11:58
hi I have noticed that Egypt and Ethiopia add to 7,400 family numbers, roughly 3600 cases. If they are and they should be exhausted by September doesn’t that affect the response rate?
This is because if we have, 25,525 cases to CN 44,250, that means 60% response rate we have 15,000 cases minus Egypt and Ethiopia 3,600 ( and rising to say 4,000 cases) this takes us to roughly 11,000 cases which is roughly 45% response rate for rest of Africa (minus Egypt and Ethiopia).
The same logic can be applied to the issued rate that is Egypt and Ethiopia have roughly 4,800 issued out of say 12,000 by end of June, which means rest of Africa up to June have 7,200. What do think this means for Africa since Egypt and Ethiopia will be exhausted by September.
June 26, 2015 at 23:27
Ethiopians and Egyptians all have CNs under the 36500 – so they are already not in my calculation of response rate shown above – since I took the response rate from 36500 to 44250. Now you can see why I did that.
June 27, 2015 at 00:16
Hi Mr.Brit
do you mean that any case from Egypt under 36500 is safe ?
June 27, 2015 at 15:19
NO! I mean that there are no case numbers from Egypt over 36500.
June 27, 2015 at 17:22
are you sure or this is just what you guess ?
June 27, 2015 at 17:28
That statement is based on my knowledge of the process, analysis of the extracted data, and the fact that I know of no Egyptian cases over that number. The highest Egyptian case is actually much lower than 36500.
June 27, 2015 at 17:40
if you are right the Ethiopians must be exhausted like Egypt and they would be in the list of exception
there is no evidence from KCC that The highest Egyptian case is actually much lower than 36500.
June 27, 2015 at 20:58
No – Ethiopia do not need to be limited like Egypt because their success rate is much lower (meaning they don’t get near the 7%. I have explained this many times – and explained Ethiopia in particular at the link below.
I am correct about this – there is no doubt.
Read this.
https://britsimonsays.com/holes-theory-illustration/
June 27, 2015 at 21:00
Mr.Brit this means there is no hope or chance for Egypt to increase at least little increase
June 27, 2015 at 21:04
I have been predicting a cutoff for Egypt of around 28500 for months. Now we are near the end they have issued 28700 as the cutoff and I felt that was a logical cutoff point. However, we will know for certain in about 2 weeks time….
June 27, 2015 at 21:08
Thanks my dear Mr. Brit and sorry if annoyed you but my CN is 300 above 28700 so can is have a hope
this make me at depression
June 28, 2015 at 00:34
I understand. The truth is you will only know your fate when the final VB is released. Good luck.
June 26, 2015 at 13:29
Mr Britsimon
Even if our status get changed from “at NVC” to “in transit”
could we had interview on september instead august?
June 26, 2015 at 14:17
The latest in transit update is for August interviews.
June 27, 2015 at 10:53
Thank you Mr britsimon
June 26, 2015 at 15:07
Hi Britt,, After that Statistics This means that there is an opportunity for Egypt in September ?
June 26, 2015 at 23:22
I have already stated my position on that….
https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
June 26, 2015 at 15:18
Hi simon can you plz when will the email come for the recent current of nepal?
June 26, 2015 at 23:20
I don’t know – patience…
June 26, 2015 at 15:25
Brit, what was your final prediction for AF in 2014 program? And there were how many visa left before giving your final prediction? What was the respond rate at that time?
June 26, 2015 at 23:19
I can’t remember exactly, I think I expected 80 to 85, but I can’t remember when I refined that number. That info is available online somewhere – but I don’t see why it is important. I will say this. I was of the first to realize and predict that 2014 would not go current, which was a big deal in that year since all recent years had been current.
June 26, 2015 at 16:40
Is the response rate u talking abt in africa interest. Becuz u said it will increase to 60 to65%. That mean the finally vb wouldn’t be bad. If i’m not getting it can u pls explain it.
June 26, 2015 at 23:11
If more people respond that will mean more interviews taken by backlog cases and a smaller VB number increase.
June 26, 2015 at 18:00
Is Africa will issue all 20k- 22k visas ? or may loose alot of visas ? Since up to 24 Jun 10934 & only remain 3 months ?????????????
June 26, 2015 at 22:44
As noted above the 10934 is not accurate – there are more – but yes _ expect them to get above 20k.
June 26, 2015 at 19:14
Brit, what was your final prediction for AF in 2014 program? And there were how many visa left before giving your final prediction? What was the respond rate at that time?
June 26, 2015 at 22:38
Did you read my words above where I repeat that I am not going to predict the final numbers AND give the response rate…
June 26, 2015 at 23:52
u didnt understand my question iam talking about 2014 in this time how much visa was issued and how much visa was left plz
June 26, 2015 at 21:07
Dear Brit,
I am a 2016 selectee.Moreover, i am filling in ds260 and have a question for you.Do i need to write my 2 months military training period’s location as a previous address of living?
Thanks in advance
June 26, 2015 at 21:54
I answered on the forum – my answer is yes since that ties in with a period of employment/military.
June 26, 2015 at 23:06
Mr Simon ,
You are really awesome.I really appreciate your help and energy.wish best for you
June 27, 2015 at 00:49
u didnt understand my question iam talking about 2014 in this time how much visa was issued and how much visa was left plz
June 27, 2015 at 15:18
I don’t know the specifics of where things stood at this point in DV2014.