This is the month end file.
Let me first say – I believe the issued numbers for this file are still understated due to the system issues. The issues have been resolved, but it is possible that embassies have not updated the case status reliably. You can note that particularly AF region has a small increase from last month AND a high number of “in Transit” cases. The latter is a certain sign of “slow/lazy” updates by the embassies – and I think that could have been the case on issued cases also. Nevertheless we can see there has been quite a number of visas issued this month globally which was mainly in EU and AS regions (which may also be underreported).
This data is what KCC will be looking at when the decide how many interviews to schedule in the last month. Let us hope they aren’t too conservative in their estimates. We should see the final VB in less than 2 weeks from now.
Just while I am writing, the 2NLs for August have not come out yet. They may be affected by the technical issues, and they have also set significantly more interviews than usual. So – hopefully people will see the actual 2NL very soon.
Here is the data
CEAC data June 30
July 2, 2015 at 00:18
Hello Mr Brit
I want to ask you a question please and I hope you answer me for I understands my situaton DV 2015
I filled out the DS260 form on May 21, 2015, I heard that the delay filling the form may affect my chance in the derniver bulettin visa,
is it true? is that I still have a chance?
CN ** AF488
July 2, 2015 at 00:47
Yes it might affect your chances – that submission is VERY late – and it takes time to process the form. You have a chance it might be processed in time – you will have to wait and see.
July 1, 2015 at 23:19
Simon, kindly explain the intransit and nvc to me. I’m seeing 883, that # is for sept.? And how many visa had passed for AF? Pls explain the holes method.
July 2, 2015 at 00:37
NVC is cases not scheduled yet. Some might get scheduled later, most won’t.
in Transit is cases that are being scheduled.
Holes =- https://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
July 1, 2015 at 22:21
plz brit my question is if they gonna give 20000 visa africa the case number 57000 is safe??
July 1, 2015 at 22:23
“Wait and see”
July 6, 2015 at 21:41
i will wait and see just i want to know how many case number between 44250 to 57000 plz
July 6, 2015 at 21:52
Loubna where r u from?
July 7, 2015 at 00:12
iam from morocco hope
July 7, 2015 at 00:27
i’m from Algeria , nice to know u and good luck
July 7, 2015 at 00:04
That is discussed in this article – https://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/
July 1, 2015 at 22:18
What is the plain b
July 1, 2015 at 22:21
“Plan B” is what you plan to do when the DV lottery process doesn’t work out for you.
July 1, 2015 at 20:08
Okay, my guys with high CN we have less than 2 weeks to go. To ease the worrying I suggest you relax and focus on other daily activities. Keep the faith up. I pray we all get a shot. Sometimes you wanna forget but loved ones keep asking what’s up, how far with the lottery, have you been scheduled, when is your interview. All I say is I can tell. Stay calm guys.
July 1, 2015 at 18:27
Thank you brit for your efforts in this year
July 1, 2015 at 18:26
Has anybody on here been getting 2NLs yet?
July 1, 2015 at 17:34
Thank you Mr.britsimon for your great effort
July 1, 2015 at 17:17
From this ceac data,is there small increment of cn for nepal?
July 1, 2015 at 21:35
The final VB will be released in a few days. Let’s wait and see.
July 1, 2015 at 22:44
The data suggests that issued + ready > 3500. However, not all ‘ready’ cases are issued visa (I’m guessing this is what response rate is?). Therefore there’s a possibility that there might be a small increase – if I were to guess- not more than by 300.
July 1, 2015 at 16:50
Hi
am analyzing Africa response rate. How many are from the backlog. I found about 210 are cases from egypt in august.
if a few are from backlog it means the response rate is inflated. Out of 1950 cases current in august 220 from egypt and 500 from backlog. I think its strange that africa has a higher response rate than Europe.
again if we have 25525 cases and 4000 of 149000 current Is from egypt and ethiopia then 10,900 are from rest of africa. That’s 41% of current cases from test of africa.
i think they chose to exhaust egypt and ethiopia so that they go current in sept.
i know am hopelessly optimistic. We will know for sure in a weeks time.
thanks for all the data
July 1, 2015 at 21:37
AF cannot go current. It can’t. It is impossible.
The response rate I quoted is based on numbers that went current in the last VB – so those numbers are all after all Egyptian and Ethiopian cases. In other words it is an accurate number for the next x number of cases.
July 1, 2015 at 16:18
From the data, this is my summary calculation for Nepal. This is for people asking specific questions about Nepal. Infer what you like from it and suggest corrections if these numbers look wrong/don’t make sense:
Nepal Summary (sum of the fields with KDU):
—————————————
Total cases: 1984
IncFam: 3610
issued: 2675
Refused: 115
AP: 65
Ready: 753
NVC: 0
InTransit: 0
July 1, 2015 at 21:39
Thanks!
July 1, 2015 at 15:01
Hi again Mr Brit ,
After the CEAC data June 30 , do you think AS under 10000 is pretty safe?
Thank you .
July 1, 2015 at 21:43
Pretty much, yes – although 9999 is almost as risky as 10001.
July 1, 2015 at 14:07
Mr.britsimon in data neval cut off 7150 . that mean will jump in next vb up to 10*** or more.
Thank u.
July 1, 2015 at 14:48
We don’t know – that depends on how many visas they expect to issue for Iranians.
July 1, 2015 at 14:01
hi
does the number of visa issued plus the ones ready mean that visa for AF exhausted?
Thanks in advance.
July 1, 2015 at 14:50
Many of the cases in READY status will stay that way (no shows). Some will be put on AP and refused. So no – you cannot assume all ready cases will be issued.
July 1, 2015 at 13:57
There are some cases been updated from AP to issued on 30th Jun
July 1, 2015 at 13:27
Only two weeks to come.Let keep our fingers crossed for AF to get to 65xxx..Still i have that dream
July 1, 2015 at 14:50
Good luck.
July 1, 2015 at 13:11
Hi Simon,
Some one wrote to KCC and received a reply that 2nls will be sent within the next 7-10 days and within 3-5 days of receiving the letter can log in to state.gov site to verify the appointment date.
1) Does it mean that we have to wait another week or so to receive 2nl?;
2) isn’t the state.gov site updated with the interview date immediately with the 2nl emails’ sending?
July 1, 2015 at 14:14
Hmhmhm I just got off the phone with them and a correspondent told me same thing,that 7-10days,
July 1, 2015 at 21:44
The statements being made are based on a generic letter. I think the 2NLs and ESC update will be faster than that.
July 1, 2015 at 12:43
Hello,
“This data is what KCC will be looking at when the decide how many interviews to schedule in the last month.”, and if KCC will not be conservative, then we expect a big jump in AS last VB?
July 1, 2015 at 21:45
Hope so – let’s wait and see….
July 1, 2015 at 12:17
Hi Mr. Britsimon,
I am sorry for this basic question: Please I’d want to know what do you mean by ” no show cases” ? Thanks.
July 1, 2015 at 21:46
People who have an appointment arranged for them and they do not show up on the appointed date.
July 1, 2015 at 12:17
Hi brit
many thanks for your continue support.
am asking about (No Show) and (AP) when they drop by the emphasis.
Kind regard..
July 1, 2015 at 21:47
I don’t understand the question.
July 2, 2015 at 01:50
I mean when (no show ) going to refused?
July 2, 2015 at 01:52
They won’t go to refused – they just stay at ready.
July 1, 2015 at 11:19
Thank u sir ..
1) Does the ‘Issued’ number mean since the very beginning of the lottery ?
2) Is AS issued number (4883) bad for High CN (not too high) ?
3) Do you think AS might not reach its quota this year ?
🙂 .
July 1, 2015 at 21:48
1. Yes
2. Not really.
3. No.
July 1, 2015 at 10:59
Simon, from this resent comment is there any change on Am I Safe comment? What will be the upcome for those of that above af65xxx and below af66xxx?
July 1, 2015 at 21:49
No change.
July 1, 2015 at 10:55
Hello Britsimon,thanks for the data.i went through and saw cases which have been current for over 4 months and they still show at NVC.Does it means that they are those that have not submitted their DS260 or what because the number is really much.
July 1, 2015 at 21:50
Yes – they might now have submitted their DS260 – or they might have submitted but it is still processing, or they could be Adjustment of Status (AoS cases) – i.e. cases processed in the USA.
July 1, 2015 at 10:54
Hello Britsimon
is that technical problem will take longtime?how long probably will take?
here the doctor ask me for the date of interview and he told me that i can’t take an appointment till i get my 2l.
my documents almost ready,do u think 2nl may go out after next vb?
thank you
July 1, 2015 at 21:50
2NLs should be out sooner than the VB
July 1, 2015 at 22:35
Ok thx
July 1, 2015 at 10:49
I have checked the cases that become issued in Cairo Embassy and compare it to the last sheets and found that they issued the cases that was ready on 28 april
does it mean that cases like me ready on may and june and approved will have to wait along time?
July 1, 2015 at 21:51
No it does not mean that.
July 1, 2015 at 10:32
Hi again Brit. I have two questions
1. Whats the deal with cases that show as “ready” for several months
2. Some of the cases mentioned in first question show same status (ready) but the status date has chenged to a more recent date. Could it be that KCC gives another or more chances to those who dont show up in time for interview ?
Sorry to bother you. I am asking all these questions as i am very late with DS260 and im aware that there are many factors that can affect the chance of bein processed before the last VB and the chance of having an available visa slot for september.
Thanks in advance 🙂
July 1, 2015 at 21:52
1. Mostly no shows, sometime lazy updates by the embassy.
2. Some no shows request reschedule. Not always.
July 1, 2015 at 08:34
Hi Brit, am a wondering on my ds260 I didn’t fill in my primary coz it asks of Secondary school and after Could that be a mistake?
July 1, 2015 at 21:57
That will be ok. They are most interested in secondary.
July 1, 2015 at 08:28
AF will go to current?
July 1, 2015 at 21:57
No.
July 1, 2015 at 08:18
AF 71000 🙂 !
July 1, 2015 at 22:17
🙁
July 1, 2015 at 08:03
hey brit, how many visas are normally issued for EU as a rule in general?
July 1, 2015 at 08:10
This year could see up to 20000 – but because AoS cases don’t show in CEAC the target in CEAC is around 19k.
July 1, 2015 at 09:14
For end august 17600 EU?now 13100+4500(july,august)
July 1, 2015 at 21:55
At least that – I expect more – more like 18000. I have confirmed that the EU figure is understated – so the June issued number was once of the highest months we have seen. July was a light month for interviews, but August will be very active.
July 2, 2015 at 06:18
Regarding to numbers abow EU 425XXX has any chance?
July 2, 2015 at 07:05
Wait and see…. next week…
July 1, 2015 at 07:41
hi brit first off thanks for the great work, I had an interview three weeks ago and my visa was approved at that time but my status in the CEAC website is still READY only the status update date is changed. Can you please tell me is this normal or not, or do i need to go to the embassy to talk about my case ?
July 1, 2015 at 08:11
Like I said in the post above – there are cases we know are approved that have not yet been updated in CEAC.
July 1, 2015 at 07:41
his not open that data
July 1, 2015 at 07:16
Brit can I call kcc to find out my interview date?
July 1, 2015 at 08:12
If you want to.
July 1, 2015 at 07:14
My case has been “in transit”since last week,do u think it can change to “ready” before the 2nls are sent or it can still b sent with out my case changing to “ready”?,please Brit say something about this 2nls stuff am getting worried.thanks
July 1, 2015 at 07:21
Same here silly my case still shows in transit too,I dnt think that’s a problem,but its so strange why kcc has delayed the 2nl till month end n tday is July 1 still no 2nl…which country are you from?
July 1, 2015 at 11:31
From Cameroon. N u
July 1, 2015 at 11:50
Am from Cameroon too,gimme your Facebook or email
July 1, 2015 at 07:10
Strange strange strange
July 1, 2015 at 07:10
It is really strange,but Brit when do u think the 2nls can go out?
July 1, 2015 at 06:57
This is strange ,its 1june no 2nl yet,never heard of this,thanks for the data britsimon
July 1, 2015 at 06:55
how many visa is there left for Europe? Do you have any prediction? And Europe will go to current?
Thanks for your answers.
July 1, 2015 at 08:13
No EU will not go current. I will not predict the final – but have explained my position before.
July 1, 2015 at 06:50
Dear Nina i read your comment please don’t commit suicide, it is not a good solution, God love you and believe he can do the best for you in Jesus christ name. Tks again Brit for your kind effort made to informed us.
July 1, 2015 at 04:53
Plees his not open that data
July 1, 2015 at 05:41
Others have opened it…
July 1, 2015 at 04:10
what do you think for the cut-off sir
July 1, 2015 at 04:19
Wait and see….
July 1, 2015 at 04:07
with you articke ‘i safe ‘ , they have any chance when you publie this CEAC
July 1, 2015 at 04:19
This Ceac is about as expected…
July 1, 2015 at 03:56
What’s about Nepal
July 1, 2015 at 04:26
They are in the file. Check it.
July 1, 2015 at 06:08
I was at current VB but now its july ,when I check my case at CEAC It shown ready but not got notifications till yet
July 1, 2015 at 06:25
YOUR AVAILABLE DATA SHOWS NEPAL’S 3500 VISAS WILL BE FINISHED UPTO CASE NUMBER 7150 SO NO NEED FINAL VISA BULLETINE FOR NEPAL. MY QUESTION IS : REALLY YOUR DATA IS 100% SURE ? IF YOUR DATA WILL NOT WORKED IN FINAL VB? HOW CAN YOU MANTAIN YOUR STATUS. SORRY.
July 1, 2015 at 08:14
As I said the data is UNDERSTATED in terms of issued.
July 1, 2015 at 03:29
SIR MY CN IS ABOUT AF48000 , and it’s still just two months and 15 days from now to end dv2015 and I have been waiting for 1 year pls i have 2 QUESTION . 1 SHOULD I GIVE UP AND FORGET THE LOTERY . 2 IF I BE CURENT HOW I CAN MADE IT
July 1, 2015 at 04:20
You are being dramatic for no reason. Let’s leave the worrying for people who have some reason to be concerned. You do not.
July 1, 2015 at 02:33
Hi brit this data do not show the last numbers for SA , Last VB for SA was 1350.
July 1, 2015 at 04:21
Ok, I’ll update that tomorrow, but it won’t change issued numbers…
July 1, 2015 at 01:46
What is nepAl case no
July 1, 2015 at 04:24
Check the file.
July 1, 2015 at 01:44
I will commit suicide if they did not reach the af66 because my life stop here usa is my best dream from 15 years.
July 1, 2015 at 01:48
please don’t say things like that nina………. i don’t know you but i’ve had friends that’s done that and even reading it online from some random person upsets me
even spoken in gest is not cool
good luck next week 🙂
July 1, 2015 at 18:20
Wini 1 years I’m waiting 1 yyyears in now thes is lottery but thes year very bad to af
July 1, 2015 at 04:03
Really, is it worth!!! are you thinking about your family
July 1, 2015 at 04:24
That is ridiculous. This is a lottery, you have to move to plan b. That is all.
July 1, 2015 at 16:03
This is the craziest thing I have ever heard. You going to end your life over DV lottery? You must be kidding. There’s always life outside America. You going to end your life that you built over the past years. what about your family. You are sefish and don’t care about your love ones. All you care for is yourself. Wake up from your sleep.
July 1, 2015 at 18:24
My family love mi me when listen I’m selected in dv usa is my life and nawe my life end issac
July 2, 2015 at 13:45
nina dont say we are all afraid about whats happenning in this year 🙁 my case about 63000 but i still believe in my dream 🙂 just nina dont give up
July 5, 2015 at 12:32
Hassan my case 66 :'(
July 1, 2015 at 20:15
Dear don’t do that. Thomas edison tried 10,000 times to get the light bulb. So what does this means, that you can keep trying. Beside setup plan B. I have a high CN just like you but I equally have a well defined plan B sitting down. There are people out they who need your service so just don’t go cuz of DV. No matter what, keep the dream alive and maintain consistency.
July 1, 2015 at 01:43
hmm thank you that’s interesting
just wondering something myabe you can provide some insight
how does the Irranian AP get estimated………it would seem to me that the length of the process would be up the Iranian Military itself……….and we all know how much the Iranians and Americans love each other lol
how would they go about doing that?
July 1, 2015 at 04:26
It us up to the USA to clear the case in whatever way they feel comfortable which obviously would include help from the Iranian military.
July 1, 2015 at 01:20
THANK BRITSIMON
July 1, 2015 at 01:16
Thank you britsimon