CEAC data March 2
This is the data extracted from CEAC as of today, March 2.
The data shows KCC have issued just over 4600 visas during February – which is about the pace I have previously mentioned they will be targeting (allowing for February being a short month). As I have said we will see KCC issuing about 5000 visas (perhaps a few more) a month from now to the end of the year. September will probably have a few more than that.
Many times I am asked why KCC are going so slow. The answer is they are not – they are doing exactly what they always do, exactly what they should do. They have a goal in mind to get to about 50000 visas. Their goal is not to reach the high case numbers – that is not the target from their point of view. They will manage the Visa Bulletin increments to have enough selectees interviewed each month to achieve their goal of 5000 visas a month. As I have explained in this analysis, they have late submitted cases completing DS260 processing and those cases will partially fill the quota of interviews for each month until the backlog reduces. So – whilst those new to the DV process might be confused, KCC is applying an approach and executing perfectly.
The full extract is available at the link below but here is the summary.
Here is the data
And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data. I have also added subtotals at the top of the columns this month in response to a readers suggestion. So – when you use the filter, the spreadsheet will recalculate the totals for you (although it seems slow online).
March 12, 2015 at 13:18
Hi my number is 2015AF68***
what are my chances?!
March 12, 2015 at 16:40
You still have chances – just not 100% safe.
March 11, 2015 at 21:26
Hello sir, my CN is AF48×××.from Sudan,when do you predict i get my 2NL and interview?
March 11, 2015 at 21:56
Probably May 2NL July interview – possibly August.
March 10, 2015 at 22:13
Hello Sir, my cn is AF57xxx. When do you predict I get my 2NL and interview.
March 10, 2015 at 22:31
JUly/August interview (meaning May or June 2NL)
March 9, 2015 at 22:42
Hi sir my cn is29000 from Egypt how many chance to get visa?
March 9, 2015 at 22:45
That is a risky number – you can only wait and see…
March 9, 2015 at 16:16
Hi Brit. My CN is AF67xxx. When do predict I get my 2NL
March 9, 2015 at 16:48
July most likely for a September interview.
March 9, 2015 at 05:07
I’m AF52*** do I stand any chance?
March 9, 2015 at 13:55
Yes of course
March 7, 2015 at 23:46
hello BritSimon how are u man may you tell me how many VISA issued until now
my think about the max case number for this year is 83 000 what do u think so
because many countries have problems so many embassies are closed means many people will have a problem to go to other countires to have interview
and also some countries are refused in this year like Nigeria and so on
means they will passe 80 000
March 8, 2015 at 15:01
All the points are correct, but still I don’t see it going to 83000…
March 6, 2015 at 15:07
You pouver to give me your link of the estimation so that I can find myself please
March 6, 2015 at 18:56
Year end estimates at the end of this post.
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2015-analysis/
March 6, 2015 at 14:23
Thanks bret
March 6, 2015 at 12:20
Hello, seen the new data of March 2nd, 2015, I wanted to know your estimation about the next VB and the VB at the end of session that is at the end of September.
Then of the beginning until now he(it) ya how much visa to attribute(award)
March 6, 2015 at 14:52
I have already given the year end estimates but of course I will update those as I have time and have more data.
March 6, 2015 at 02:40
Hello Brett Is No. 30600 from Egypt a chance in the lottery, and how much percentage of access to this figure Thanks
March 6, 2015 at 03:48
That is a risky number because Egypt will probably hit the 7% limit. No one can say for sure, you just need to wait to see…
March 4, 2015 at 19:51
hi Brit,
what do you think the next visa bulletin will reach to egypt, and for any cause number the cut_off will happen to egypt also?
March 4, 2015 at 21:02
IT is hard to be precise about the month to month bulletin for Egypt – but probably around 21000 for the next VB. There is likely to be a cutoff in place for Egypt at the end of the year – and that could be around 28/28500.
March 4, 2015 at 18:13
I have checked embassy in ABD CN and found that most of the Iranian getting their interview in ADB and the majority are going under AP. If you notice that – embassy in ADB crowded with Iranian cases. But eventually they are getting their visa.
March 4, 2015 at 18:17
Yes, Iranians are commonly interviewed at ABD, ANK and YRV.
March 4, 2015 at 12:42
hi sir my cn is af62xxx plz sir how many chances to get 2nl ?
March 4, 2015 at 13:23
Excellent chance
March 4, 2015 at 03:06
sir my qus
1) every 1000 cases more than 500 people were CON(consulate) from tha KDU(kathmandu) all they are nepal or not?
2)if they all are nepalies upto cn4000 2028 was family member similsrly upto cn8000 4000 then where will cut for nepal? plz explan my case no is sure or not?? whate is your calculation??//
March 4, 2015 at 05:39
1. No they are not all Nepal, but mostly.
2. I think it has a good chance but I cannot say it is safe.
March 3, 2015 at 17:27
hey
March 3, 2015 at 14:27
Hi Simon
By this time in DV 2014, How many visa has been issued I mean at 02 march 2014.
March 3, 2015 at 17:53
I don’t know exactly – I’m not sure I have a file from that time.
March 3, 2015 at 14:13
Is there a chance for No. AF83XXX these Year
March 3, 2015 at 15:12
Very unlikely. I’m sorry.
March 3, 2015 at 13:55
hi sir my cn is as801X from nepal plz sir how many chances to get 2nl ?
March 3, 2015 at 15:13
You have a good chance.
March 3, 2015 at 06:54
Hello,
How can you explain, that the sum of ISSUED+REFUSED+AP+READY+TRANSFER is always equal to Family members column…?
I lost the logic of the data…
March 3, 2015 at 06:57
The Family members column is the selectee plus their family. Those people have to be in one of the status codes – so yes they should equate.
March 3, 2015 at 07:13
Thank you!
March 3, 2015 at 07:03
Am I right, that column ‘family members ‘ does not reflect the number of family members exclusively but includes all the persons who have already been interviewed (main applicants + members of their family)?
March 3, 2015 at 07:42
People who at least scheduled – since the At NVC and Transit case do not show family.
March 3, 2015 at 04:39
we r thankful to your effort sir. actually they issued more than 13k, and as u menstioned many times, some Embassies are not updating their data monthly. some of my friends (AF) were interviewed in ASIAN countries(kLL+DHK) and they are already in the states, i filtered and their case numbers never updated in the data of that Embassies. sir thank you for educating us.
March 3, 2015 at 04:44
Yes that is correct. We will perhaps see some jumps in the data when embassies get updated – but for now all I can do is report the data as it exists in the system. Last year the CEAC data was extremely accurate by the end of the year….
March 3, 2015 at 01:30
Will AS132XX ever go current, seems to me this year is much slower than last year
March 3, 2015 at 01:33
That is a risky number – all you can do is wait and see….
March 3, 2015 at 00:46
Thank you for your kindly reply and sorry for too many questions
March 3, 2015 at 00:00
Also Sir comparing each month the number in holes for Africa is 50533 didn’t chanfe and same percentage 22
So people who submitted DS 260 late smd Kcc will look to those cases won’t reduce this percentage for the holes
March 3, 2015 at 00:35
The holes won’t reduce month to month – they are not to do with DS260 cases. Full explanation here – https://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
March 2, 2015 at 23:48
Thank you Sir for your effort
And was wondering if you can explain for me what does it mean in the table by holes ans estimated country hole compared to Aftica
Thank you