This is the last CEAC data file before the DV2015 ends. The next file I produce will be after the end of the month – and will be the last snapshot of the year.
So – todays file tells us what has happened so in the previous 50 weeks, and what might happen in the next 2 weeks!
The most obvious comment is how close each region is getting to their quotas. Let me highlight a couple of points about that.
First we must realize that the CEAC data never includes results for cases that did Adjustment of Status (AoS). Those are cases processed for people already living in the USA – so their cases appear as “non responses” in the CEAC file (at NVC). This will add about 3% to 5% for most regions (10% to 15% for OC).
OK – so that being said, how will we know when we are about to run out of visas. Well – we all know the number on the original letters is a global target of 50,000. However, the actual limit is higher than that. Last year for instance 52,342 DV visas were issued. The reason the number is allowed to be higher than 50k is because the original allocation to DV lottery was 55,000, and later (about 15 years ago) UP TO 5000 of those were reserved for a program called NACARA. In reality, that program does not use all the 5000, so DV is allowed to go over 50k by some margin.
So – the global limit of visas should be around 50 to 53k. Then there is a quota per region that divides the total global allocation into the regions. That is calculated according to a formula, and a clever and patient man by the name of Roger (DV4Roger – a DV2015 selectee) worked out the formula. His analysis came out with the following percentage splits.
AF – 41.7208%
EU – 37.8353%
AS – 16.0617%
SA – 2.7802%
OC – 1.5876%
If we assume a target of 50,000 to 53,000 (arbitrarily) this would give the following numbers as a target range along with an allowance for AoS cases to show what we would see in CEAC. So – look at the purple columns and think of that as a target range.
So – as we look at the numbers we can see that EU, SA and OC are already in their target range. That means we could start to see people who are clearing AP in those three regions being told there are no more visas available – hopefully this will be rare – but it could happen. Most September scheduled interviews would have happened by now – so we are down to the last few visas being issued….
AF and AS still have some visas available. AP clearances in those two regions over the next two weeks should have a good chance to get a visa.
In AF region it is clear, as I have mentioned previously, that the target is not going to be met. It really is a great shame – they could have gone higher with their last 2 or 3 visa bulletins – the no shows have resulted in wasted visas. Should we blame KCC for not realizing the issue, perhaps, but they can’t tell who is going to show up for their appointment and who won’t – so they hold the place open.
Here is the data.
Enjoy!
September 16, 2015 at 20:16
Hi Brit. Hope you are doing fine. I already got my visa and im sorry to bother you but i have a question. In my ds260 form i put a certain address in NY and that address is also the address of my sponsor. I plan to teavel by the end of this month but recently i have got a job offer and also a place to stay from another relative in Minnesota. So my question is :
1. Do i have to land in NY in order to activate my LPR?
2. Can i change my address at the point of entry?
3 if i travel to any of Minnesota airports using NY as a transit point ,which airport would be my point of entry ?
Thanks in advance 🙂
September 16, 2015 at 21:18
1. No.
2. Yes.
3. NY.
September 16, 2015 at 20:19
Thanks a lot sir Britsimon… hope they’ll learn and increase the cut off for AF region in 2016.
September 16, 2015 at 21:17
I suspect they won’t. Unless they introduce some way to check who plans to show up – which is doubtful.
September 16, 2015 at 20:23
For AF kcc made this purposely not to fill the quota. They have their hidden agenda. God bless them
September 16, 2015 at 21:16
??? That is, quite frankly, ridiculous.
If you send in your DS260 and they schedule an appointment for you (and that means they allocate the visas for you), would you expect them to hold open the visa for you? Of course you would. How is that some hidden agenda. Please. Let’s not make some suspicion of wrong doing or hidden agenda when there is clearly none. AF has a lot of people not show up for their interviews. Simple.
September 16, 2015 at 20:29
Dear Simon
would you please provide me the exactly total of CN between AF2015 50000 till 70000 ?
thanks .
September 16, 2015 at 21:13
You can get that from the Jan 2 file – here https://goo.gl/8rPrhy
September 16, 2015 at 21:32
What about af531**? any chance sir?!
September 16, 2015 at 21:55
You don’t mention the year. DV2015 then no. DV2016, it is too early to be sure.
September 16, 2015 at 21:35
Hello Simon…
Thanks a lot for your always support and help… actually i did my interview last july in cairo … although i had been informed that my visa is approved. but till now i didnt receive my visa.. they said it is under AP. So 30 of september is so near. Do u think i can get my visa? and how can u advice me.
September 16, 2015 at 21:56
Like I said above – there are visas available – although if you are charging to Egypt there is a country maximum that might be an issue., Bottom line – you will only be sure once you have the visa in your hand.
September 18, 2015 at 18:01
Dear Simon,
I have checked my visa status. It is Refused. But i don’t know the reasons for rejection, i have sent e mail to cairo embassy to clarify my issue, do u think i have chance to get the visa? Whats your advice?
September 18, 2015 at 18:23
Refused is normally final. You can only ask why.
September 16, 2015 at 22:50
Hello Tahir
i will get my interview soon in cairo . and i just need to know something ?
did they ask you about a sponsor or i-134 document or bank statement in the interview?
thanks . i hope you get your visa soon
September 16, 2015 at 22:52
Hello Tahir
i will get my interview soon in cairo . and i just need to know something ?
did they ask you about a sponsor or i-134 document or bank statement in the interview?
thanks . i hope you get your visa soon
September 18, 2015 at 18:06
Dear gozza,
They didn’t aske me about sponser or bank statement, hope u get your visa on time
September 20, 2015 at 00:44
thanks alot tahir . inshallah you get another chance next year ya m3lm
September 16, 2015 at 21:48
hii sir
i have passed my interview in 14/09/2015 , AF
the consul tell me : congratulations your visa approved , but when i check my status is AP ,
it’s mean 50 % i will get my visa and 50% i will not ?
please tell me sir
September 16, 2015 at 21:57
Often approved cases show AP for a day or two before becoming issued – that might be what is happening in your case.
September 16, 2015 at 21:59
so sir we can say that i will get my visa 100% ?
or not …
September 16, 2015 at 22:47
Once it is in your hand it will be 100%. Before then it is less than 100%.
September 17, 2015 at 01:27
If he says you’re approved your chances are 90%+
September 17, 2015 at 01:51
Hello brit, it means the range for as for 2016 will cross cn6000??
September 17, 2015 at 04:44
Probably, but it is too early to be certain.
September 17, 2015 at 04:47
Sir Britsimon,i mean they should have increased the 2nd or 3rd last VBs for AF as you mentioned above which would have definitely increased the cutoff.
September 17, 2015 at 04:49
This DV has gone..let wait for 2017. Not sure when will it start
September 17, 2015 at 05:04
Yes, they should have done that to some extent, but they didn’t. By the time they tried to do something they were restricted by the embassy capacity.
September 17, 2015 at 05:05
sir britsimon what about CN20016AF49xxx save or not ?
September 17, 2015 at 05:20
Hello Simon. Nvc case there are 24619 cases. Does that mean all this case didn’t not show up for interviews after being scheduled?
September 17, 2015 at 05:32
Hi simon…thanks for the great work…i honeslty need your your help and advice…our case was put under AP last week…i work in afghanistan and i dont want to lose my job if i cant get the visa..am supposed to travel back on wednesday …i really dont know what to do.
September 17, 2015 at 05:44
Hi britsimon, can you please paste the latest bulletin. I have just deleted it without reading. Can you please help me ? I will be very helpful… my net was hang at that time, so it happens
September 17, 2015 at 07:36
Hiii the good man brit simon how u, where is your prediction i am winner Dv2015 Af 52××× i am very sad where is it my good chance i am cray ok what a chance or advantage 2017 dv lottery thank you very much. Stay safe!!!
September 17, 2015 at 21:01
I am sorry to inform you it is over for DV2015. The final number for DV2015 in Africa was 50000. There will be no change.
September 18, 2015 at 10:00
Thank u sir britsimon. i love u in Jesus name for ever ame.
September 17, 2015 at 09:17
Hi, Brit:
As promised, I am following up on my case 2015 EU 24*** (I am the person who had to wait until September 15 to get my AP cleared in EU region).
In fact, that was not the AP, but a waiting period (the AP status changed to Refused in the CEAC a week of two after the interview), as I couldn’t get my visa because of the 2YHRR, which ended on Sept. 15. After my July interview, I called the Embassy in the middle of August to see if there were visa slots available for September, and they indeed were. So I am just back from the consulate with IVs in passports. No idea if they had our visas on hold after the interview, or is it that they have plenty left (I guess, the latter is more likely). Anyway, it worked for good.
Thanks for the valuable information you share – it helped to keep the spirit up and stay positive!
September 17, 2015 at 13:43
Excellent. Interesting that your case was marked as refused but that got issued later. That embassy is doing things wrong!
Glad it worked out!
September 17, 2015 at 14:05
Hi SSS,
Glad you got your visa!
Which embassy was that?
September 17, 2015 at 19:50
Thank you guys! It was Warsaw. Well, my case was not trivial, at least for Warsaw – they even recognized me the second time I came (in the morning when I registered the lady said “awww you’re those applicants with the requirement!”). During the first interview, however, the officer said that since the visa couldn’t be issued that day, he had to formally request me to return with my passport later, and that constituted a denial for the CEAC system. They do it the same way when people fail to bring the complete application or have some documents missing, and have to return later. All get the denial later (hopefully) changed to Issued.
September 17, 2015 at 20:42
What you are describing is a 221(g) denial – which is called Administrative Processing (AP). Your CEAC status should have bee on AP. I’ll send the Warsaw embassy an email telling them how to operate their own system….
September 29, 2015 at 18:04
Dear SSS… actually i have the same issue of yours, my visa had been approved after the interview, but till now i did’t receive my visa, unfortunately now my visa status on ceac is refused, since 17 sept i am sending e mails to know the reasons for rejection but without response, so whats your advise? Do u think still i have chance to get my visa?
Thanks a lot
September 17, 2015 at 11:17
is there any hope for 2015af52000?
September 17, 2015 at 13:41
No. The final cutoff for AF was published in July at 50000. No one above that number can get a visa.
September 17, 2015 at 13:24
Hallo Britsimon,
Good work you are doing. Two questions
1. As you indicated 2015AF did not use some of its allocated Visas, does it mean 2016 AF the cutoff number might go up?
2. How many people or what was the highest Case number for AF for the 2016?
September 17, 2015 at 13:40
I don’t have the data to be certain.
1. Possibly – but not because 2015 visas are passed on to 2016 if that is what you mean.
2. Probably 56/57k – but I don’t know exactly.
September 17, 2015 at 14:58
Hello, Thank you for your support throughout the last year … Hope you provide is fantastic !! I received my validation yesterday after a meeting on September 9 . Courage to all. Usa here I am ..
September 17, 2015 at 16:03
Congratulations!!!
September 17, 2015 at 15:15
have anice weekend mr, simon thanks for help us I have question why the CN OF winner for AF coming big figure like AF00050XXX above and we didn`t see that in CN OF AS and other
thank alot…
September 17, 2015 at 16:03
AF have a lot more selectees and get a lot more visas.
September 17, 2015 at 16:43
Thanks for the data
I’m in AP 4 months now approved case, my case is READY from June 9, and the last change is August 25 Africa Morocco, is there a chance for me to get a visa, in there last email they tell me my case is under ‘administration review’ two weeks ago, what do you think BritSimon?
September 17, 2015 at 17:44
You are in AP. The timeline for those AP cases varies greatly – so I have no way to predict how long an individual case will take.
September 17, 2015 at 17:30
helloo Mr brit
yeah yeah finally i am issued today when i see issued i cried
thak you god
tahnk you Mr brit yes yes yes yes yes yes its the very happy day in my life
thank you
September 17, 2015 at 17:43
Excellent news! Congratulations!
September 17, 2015 at 18:00
Hello Dear
If you can explain to me processing of a DS 260 ?
If one DS-260 was completed in May this year and it was reopened in September for a few minor changes. If the completion of the first in May is completed from KCC after re-submit in September whether it is necessary for the processing of the DS-260 another three months. I suppose to complete from KCC one DS-260 to be three months.
I hope you understand the question.
Regards,
Alban
September 17, 2015 at 19:10
https://britsimonsays.com/does-unlocking-cause-delays/
September 17, 2015 at 19:47
Please brits , are there any upper cn 60000 africa dv 2016? you said for dv lottery 2015, all visas will not be distributed , is what the supplement of these visas will be paid for dv lottery 2016 ??? is what dv 2016 review , it can reach more than 55,000 ?
September 17, 2015 at 20:50
I don’t know for certain about any AF case numbers above 60000. I have not heard of any and my own estimates suggest none will exist.
DV2015 unused visas cannot be issued after September 30 and will not be transferred to DV2016.
As for whether we can reach 55000 or not – it is too early to be sure.
October 10, 2015 at 00:16
The unused DV2015 visas will not be transferred to DV2016.
I doubt there are any 2016 AF cases higher than 60,000. Numbers above 55,000 must be fairly risky therefore.
September 18, 2015 at 01:03
Hi again, Simon: Since you said it’s still too early to be sure about my case’s possibilities (SA000012XX), would submitting a new 2017 just-in-case application be a disqualifier?
September 18, 2015 at 05:08
That is no problem – it won’t disqualify you. Go ahead and enter DV2017.
September 18, 2015 at 06:31
Dear brit sir what about ur estimation for nepal in dv 2016 may it go upto 7000
September 18, 2015 at 14:01
I don’t know yet. I don’t have the data I need to estimate that.
September 18, 2015 at 07:23
Any guesstiment for December cutoffs?
September 18, 2015 at 14:01
Nope. I have no data to work with – so I am not guessing….
September 18, 2015 at 12:29
Hello Simon… thank you for the info you share with us. I am SA12XX for DV2016 , when do you estimate i will be having my interview? of my 2NL. ?
September 18, 2015 at 13:51
This gives a rough idea – https://britsimonsays.com/when-will-i-have-an-interview/
September 18, 2015 at 16:12
hi brit simon
Is it possible for someone winnerDV2016 to submit, at the DV2017 again
September 18, 2015 at 16:17
Yes, no problem.
September 18, 2015 at 17:35
Dear Britsimon, are they closing pending APs in the last days or they simply don’t care as if its a regular month? I’m speaking about dos not embassies.
September 18, 2015 at 17:39
The official word is AP takes as long as it takes. They will not compromise security for the sake of the deadline.
September 18, 2015 at 19:41
hi brit
good day and hope that all is going good.
two Questions:
1. my friend went was interview with his wife after going through the interview, the wife recieved the visa because she is the principal applicant, but the husband was place under Adm Processing.
i am confuse because they did not inform him as to why he is place under Adm pro, and they inform him that they shall call him back with out any official letter from the embassy as to why he is coming back and when. i am worry for him.
2. My friend name is very common in our country, you find 3-10 person having the same first and surname, and he is on the program as husband to his wife, because the girl play single at the time they were not marry and got marry two months after she played the dv 2016 single.
now he is afraid that those other people name shall have a effect on his family program, thou he is not the principal applicant.
please to hear your advise.
September 18, 2015 at 19:48
I’m not sure whether this is the same case or two different cases. So – I’m not sure how to answer. For Q1 all they can do is hope this gets resolved in the next 12 days.
For Q2 – what can I say – there is obviously a risk – but there is nothing that can be done to change that.
September 19, 2015 at 10:20
Dear Simon
all Sudanese selection for DV 2015 assign to Cairo and now Egypt is current ,so that mean all Sudanese will going to have interview chance?
Best regard.
September 19, 2015 at 16:15
All 2015 interviews have been scheduled and the year ends in less than two weeks. There are no more interviews to be arranged for any country.
September 20, 2015 at 07:38
Dear Britsimon,
I am puzzled by this CEAC data. For DV2015, the cut-off number for AS is 7650, how come the total Cases of AS in the CEAC data is 11470? Should the number of total Cases (11,470) be less than the cut-off number (7,650)?
Thanks for your time!
September 20, 2015 at 13:49
The 11470 cases is the number of cases up to case number 19171 – the highest number in Asia in DV2015.
September 20, 2015 at 15:44
hi mr brit .. my sister hqs entring his name two times for 2015dv she .. dont knos that can br dangerous … she is in blacklist forever or she can submited for dv2017 thanks for reply
September 20, 2015 at 16:01
I don’t know how they handle cases like that.
September 20, 2015 at 23:24
Hi simon, im dv 2016 winner
When i applied in th dv2016 i was having my son 1 year old, the photo i submitted for him was alittle bit shaking. Pls what do u think about that?
September 21, 2015 at 03:34
Not a big problem.
September 21, 2015 at 04:16
hi Simon, will dv2017 run? and if so, should i assume that registration will begin sometime first week of oct, to then stay open over the entire month? only cause i can’t seem to find any such info on it. ta.
September 21, 2015 at 13:15
Yes, it will be announced within a week.
September 22, 2015 at 15:37
brill. thanks for all your outstanding input. and here’s to hoping that KCC don’t ‘select’ way too many applicants for further processing yet again. cause that sure is a downer!
September 22, 2015 at 16:05
From DV2008 to DV2014 KCC seemed to slightly underselect each year. Then there was the massive increase in selectees in DV2014 and DV2015. This resulted in some people being left without visas. DV2016 has less selectees, but there are still too many in AS and AF regions. It will be interesting to see how they handle DV2017 – but of course we won’t know for many months.
September 21, 2015 at 14:04
Greetings to Simon
September 22, 2015 at 02:53
Are you going to provide some sort of.guide for dv2017?? Please dooo
September 22, 2015 at 13:11
Yes I will do that in the next few days.
September 22, 2015 at 04:53
warm greeting Mr. Brit
i have medical on 29th sep and interview on 19th oct but i have created profile and update my profile.
does it affect for further process or it should be created only after interview ?
so worried
need ur suggestion
thank u so much brit.
September 22, 2015 at 13:10
No problem, relax.
September 22, 2015 at 08:09
Hi sir i am from Liberia DVD2015 end in our country now
September 22, 2015 at 09:11
Hello Brit,
Can we ( current 2016) expect 2nd letter today or tomorrow? (June submission).
Thank you In advance.
September 22, 2015 at 13:06
Within a few days. Patience…
September 22, 2015 at 12:35
Hello Simon. I’ve entered the US,is there any way to check my green card status? I found USCIS status check, but when I enter my IOE… number it says “validation error”. Any help, please?
September 22, 2015 at 13:05
Use the Elis account.
September 22, 2015 at 18:30
They removed the Elis accounts starting from August 31st, the only way to check now is through the USCIS status check webpage. Just relax though, the first 3 weeks you will keep receiving this error, until your card is being produced, at that point, the message will change to: “My card is being produced”.Same thing happened to me as well and I just received my green card in the mail yesterday.
September 22, 2015 at 20:23
Thanks for that update!
September 22, 2015 at 18:36
Hi Simon, do you know what happens with those cases that I guess fall into “transfer”. In my case I´m EU national but living in South America and the interview should take place in the latter.
May this delay the process?
What are the chances to miss the visa?
Many thanks for your great work
September 22, 2015 at 20:22
That is not the transfer scenario. If you gave your current address in South America, you interview will be scheduled at your local embassy. That happens all the time – no issue at all.
September 23, 2015 at 06:35
AS2016-11500 do i have a chance?? what is the highest case no from Asia that you heard currently?
September 23, 2015 at 15:10
It is really too early to be certain one way or another, but, given the number reached in DV2015 it must be considered a number with a high degree of risk.
September 24, 2015 at 07:56
Is there still a chance that AP cases will get issued right up until the deadline of the 30th? Or should they have been issued by now? Thanks
September 24, 2015 at 15:10
They will be issuing right up to the deadline.
September 25, 2015 at 14:05
Hi Brit,
Last year you hurried too much to get the final 9/30 results. That is why your regional results for the number of visas issued per region did not comply with http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableIII.pdf (immigrant visas only, without aos)
I would suggest not to do that on 9/30, just wait for 10/1 this year. It would also be nice to rerun last year results to check against official statistics.
BaGuy
September 25, 2015 at 14:48
No, I reran the 2014 extract and it comes out the same. CEAC won’t be exactly the same as the official results – There will be small variations – it is not important to have a precise CEAC file.
September 25, 2015 at 15:50
Why are they different? It is 0.7% difference for Asia, 57 extra visas.
September 25, 2015 at 16:37
Why are you so worried about this???
One reason could be babies born after issuance and before entry. CEAC would not be updated in that case, but they would be counted on the official numbers.
September 25, 2015 at 16:02
What happened with 2 EU numbers – 12453 and 13645? They were present in June files “at NVC”, then moved to “In Transit” and completely gone by now?
September 25, 2015 at 16:33
The extraction process drops a few numbers sometimes. If the number of dropouts is just a few (less than 10 ish), I ignore the error and publish the file anyway. I get a log file showing those dropouts, but it isn’t statistically significant so – I don’t worry about it. These numbers may be examples of that case – I haven’t checked.
September 25, 2015 at 16:31
Same thing for SA1079. It is gone, but was there before. Also, SA1023 is in CEAC right now, but is not in the latest file. Is the script buggy?
September 25, 2015 at 16:39
Already explained. Really – relax. This is not the source for any individual case, this is useful for statistical analysis – and the odd dropout doesn’t matter.
September 25, 2015 at 16:39
Two EU numbers and SA1079 are gone from CEAC, not only from your file. What does it mean?
September 25, 2015 at 16:44
What do you mean – relax? If my winning case is gone from the list of the winners, how could I relax?
September 25, 2015 at 16:56
Has YOUR number gone from the winning list?