Another interim update to have a look at – I am doing these updates often at this point to illustrate the pace of the visas issuances. Globally they have issued nearly 3000 visas since Feb 2 (so 16 days) – and as I have explained before we can expect that pace to keep up.
There are certainly some embassies not updating properly at this point still, nevertheless this gives a good picture of what is happening.
The amount of AP cases in AS region is high – higher than the whole of AF region. That would mostly be due to Iran – so it confirms that Iranian cases are as likely as they were last year to go into AP – the only question is whether the cases will stay in AP as long as they did last year. If they do – then we can assume a similar number of Iranian cases to be issued – from 2000 to 2500, which would then mean that AS region should go over AS10000 – and on toward the 12000 to 13000 range.
By the way I expect 2NLs to come out tomorrow or over the weekend – I will try to capture the data again to see how many cases are sent the 2NLs.
Here is the data
Here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.
CEAC data update – Feb 18
February 19, 2015 at 23:57
Thank you for this extraction Brit. in fact, who do you think should receive a 2NL this month : max. submitted on October ? or only September and before ?
Thank you 🙂
February 20, 2015 at 00:03
I *think* we will see some October cases getting 2NLs. The reason is that they must have processed the majority of cases by now – so the people that submitted September of later must be in the minority. So – I warned people that time was running out – but I was doing that to be safe (rather than sorry).
February 20, 2015 at 00:13
I agree. majority of forms are processed by now so we expect good cut offs in next VBs.
Also and according to your extractions, 25% of visas are issued so far ( if total of DV visas is 50k ) so they should do their best in the 5 months left in 2015 fiscal year.
Thanks.
February 20, 2015 at 00:21
Not counting February there are 7 months of processing left – 5 VBs
February 20, 2015 at 00:26
I see. thanks Brit !
February 20, 2015 at 00:36
Thank u Simon For Ur Support Here, am From Ethiopian and AF***224*** am Still Waiting, Last Year My Sister CN Was AF***29*** and She Got Her 2nd Letter in Feb 12, Comparing to Last Year This One is So Late, What is The Reason Do You think? and Do U Think I’ll Get 2moro My 2nd Letter?
February 20, 2015 at 00:55
The numbers are more condensed this year because NIgeria is out. For example, last year the highest CN was 116K this year is only 90k – the difference is Nigeria. So – numbers don’t compare exactly to last year.
February 20, 2015 at 04:55
Thank you for good job. I really appreciate ur continuous help. how is the situation in Us Embassy in Amman, Jordan? For dv lottery cases? I’m not jordanian.. but i leave here in Jordan. ..
February 20, 2015 at 06:14
Check out the league table post (use the search function)
February 20, 2015 at 08:37
Let’s see if they reach DS260 submitted in November. I am thinking we could see that cause they must reslize things need to speed up just about now. Thanks Simon
February 20, 2015 at 10:50
I don’t think they will reach Nov.
Next month perhaps.
February 20, 2015 at 12:14
Hi Brit, what do you think about for november the next month? Given the data, will they reach to Nov?
February 20, 2015 at 17:30
Well I think so, but let’s wait and see how far they get in this batch of 2NLs
February 20, 2015 at 17:32
Agreed.
February 20, 2015 at 10:03
Hi,
What is your expectation for the next VB for AS, how many CN will jump from 4725 of AS?
Thanks
February 20, 2015 at 13:36
Thank you so much!
February 20, 2015 at 13:41
Do you think they can reach AF82xxx this fiscal year ?
February 20, 2015 at 17:22
No – I really don’t think they will go that high. 🙁
February 20, 2015 at 16:44
hi brit What is your expectation for the next VB for Af.
February 20, 2015 at 17:23
35XXX to 37XXX
February 20, 2015 at 18:45
What is your expectation for the next VB for AS, how many CN will jump from 4725 of AS?
February 20, 2015 at 19:48
55XX to 57XX
February 21, 2015 at 04:43
I hope that 🙂 since my CN 54XX
Thank you and keep it up
February 21, 2015 at 16:16
am due to be scheduled in April coz my cn is 28xxx , can i postpon the interview date to be pushed some months forward? or this can result to visa denial? please advise me, from kenya
February 21, 2015 at 18:31
It is very unwise to postpone. The risk is that you go to the back of the line – and visas may run out before you get your chance. So – is the reason to postpone VERY VERY important?
February 21, 2015 at 16:36
high Brit when do u tink cases AFxxx59158 wil recieve the 2NL
February 21, 2015 at 18:32
August probably, perhaps July.
February 21, 2015 at 17:59
Hello friend
Do KCC send 2NL on weekends ?
February 21, 2015 at 18:37
Sometimes – but I think it will come out Monday or Tuesday now….
February 21, 2015 at 23:15
What is your expectation for the next VB for Eu, how many CN will jump from ??
February 22, 2015 at 03:54
I would expect to see something around 32XXX
February 22, 2015 at 01:50
Thank you so much
February 22, 2015 at 17:50
Hi Simon when i fill out my case number and open the Ds260 form it says “Before we can process your Diversity Visa application, each applicant in your case must complete Form DS-260, the Online Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration Application. To access the online form, click on the link to the right of an applicant’s name below, under the “IV Application” heading.” what does this really mean i dont have any derivative to travel with me since i am single. please help
February 22, 2015 at 21:05
Well I am not looking at your screen – but I assume there is a list of applicants – and it should just be you – so complete your DS260.
February 22, 2015 at 22:25
Hi, is it possible to add a new field in the summary table indicating the number of cases pending @ NVC.
February 22, 2015 at 22:48
It is a simple thing to find by using a filter for the cases that show “at NVC”. However, some of those cases will never be scheduled (because the selectee is a non response) and some will be late submissions. So – it isn’t a clear fact – and I doubt I will include it on the summary for now
February 23, 2015 at 04:51
Hi Brit, do you think that when this factors remain constant ie. cases still at ‘NVC’ due to lack of submission and late submission will affect the final cut off for AF? Will it favour high cases in a way?
February 23, 2015 at 06:37
This isn’t a new thing. Non responses have always been a reality. KCC normally select twice as many winners as there are green cards – in DV2015 they selected 125k for 50k Green Cards. That is probably 15 to 20k too many winners.
February 23, 2015 at 07:36
Hi, BritSimon,
this question was asked again and again: what do you think about cut off number for Europe dv-2015, (is there any chance to current)
February 23, 2015 at 18:28
That has to be a two part answer. One is to explain whether it is possible for EU to go current – and the other is do I think it will happen.
So – is there any chance for EU to go current – well that would require a significant number of cases to fail to respond (or fail to submit their DS260 in time). Response rates tend to stay similar year to year, except when there are events that change that. THe change to the DS260 from the old paper based form could put some people off, and the political unrest around Ukraine might be an issue. So, is it possible? Yes it is possible.
BUT do I think it will happen – at this point no I don’t think it will happen. There are 1840 cases over CN40000 – which represents about 3300 selectees with family. I think most of those will be too high.
February 23, 2015 at 13:09
Do you think they can reach Eu 44000 this fiscal year ?
February 23, 2015 at 18:29
See my response to Sally. It is possible (in DV anything is possible), but I don’t think it is likely.
February 23, 2015 at 19:28
Hello BritSimon. I am from Uzbekistan. my CN 2015EU79xx, DS260 submitted in september 2014, re-submitted in 18 february 2015.
Do KCC send 2NL on weekends ?
February 23, 2015 at 21:24
They do sometimes send on a weekend – but they did not send this weekend. Looks like they will send them tomorrow now.
February 24, 2015 at 03:02
Hey, this year they made the CEAC data more accessible 🙂 Less queries, more efficient scanning 🙂 How long does it take to scan all the case numbers?
February 24, 2015 at 04:09
Hi Dalius!!
The system us the same, but they have made all cases appear (Current or not). It takes a few hours tI capture all the data – so depending on network speed, less than a day.
February 26, 2015 at 05:41
Hello BritSimon!
I got message regarding to updates about my case. I checked it up everything is fine the interview date is already settled. But Im wondering why didnt I get email regarding what kind of documents has to be prepared? And ceac.state.gov tells me that it is In transit.
Other question, I asked you about this before. but in some forms I searched and read they say that 1 simple error in name may bring to denial the visa. My name is Shuxratzhon Kemashvili in all of my documents. But in my High School diploma it is Shuxrat Kemashvili, they didnt write the rest of letters which are (zhon). This error was made by high school. Is this problem for interview? My diploma has also other information such as DOB, middle name, and city’s name, these are all correct.
Thanks in advance and Best Regards.
God Bless you!
February 26, 2015 at 06:34
Some embassies send an email about what they need for the interview, some don’t – either way you should read the instructions and prepare properly.
About the name issue – I already told you that was not an issue. It is a mistake on education documents – and that is NOT what is used to prove your identity – so please – stop worrying about it. It is NOT a problem.