Today I am publishing the end of month file for March 1, 2016. Remember this is the status of the lottery after 5 months of processing – there are seven more months of processing left, even though we only have 5 months of visa bulletins left. I’m sure some people will look at these numbers are start speculating that the pace of visa issuances is slow, but below I am including the same point from last year so show how we are actually ahead of last year in every region except OC. So – no need for people to panic about pace of visa issuances. This is normal…
Please take a look at the file and use filters on the file to work out specifics on any country/region you are interested in – I don’t have time to do that for everyone that requests specific data to their interest. You can learn how to filter here.
To explain what the status codes mean.
The first status for every case is “AT NVC”. You can ignore the text on the case – the case has not been passed to NVC. What this status means is that the case is in one of the following situations.
- The case is not yet current.
- The case is current, BUT the DS260 has not be submitted at all, or it was submitted but not processed yet – and therefore not scheduled.
- The case is current, the form is processed, but it is waiting to be scheduled (typically because the cases have not yet been sent to the embassies yet).
This status is shown for a brief period when KCC has scheduled the interview, and transferred the case to the embassy. However, the embassy has not yet updated CEAC to acknowledge they have received the case.
This is the next status after in transit. It means the case has arrived at the embassy for interview. Sometimes a case will continue to show ready even after the interview.
Pretty obviously – this is the status we all want to see! The interview took place, was successful and the visa has been approved/issued.
This is the status no one wants to see, meaning the interview took place and the selectee was denied. A derivative can be refused, while the principal is approved. However, if the principal is refused – all the derivatives are refused also – even if the embassy fails to update CEAC.
This is when someone did not have all the documents at the interview OR some additional checks are needed before the case can be adjudicated. AP can last a few days or several months. The status updates during that time are meaningless.
Here is the file itself.
March 2, 2016 at 19:00
Hi Brist, A question in the filter. this is Abidjan= ABJ
March 2, 2016 at 19:18
March 2, 2016 at 19:35
thank you very much
March 2, 2016 at 19:38
Brit! Can you guess how many more Quota Visa Left for Asia?
March 2, 2016 at 19:41
The quota is probably around 8000.
March 2, 2016 at 19:41
hi, mr birtsimon Effort estimator
the Column of the NVC Does it include all the remaining case winning 1-The case is not yet current.. And that total is 36641also there is no mention for Column NVC last 2015 CEAC
March 2, 2016 at 19:44
The explanation of NVC is in the article above.
March 2, 2016 at 19:53
ya me simon iread it but am asking if we can say all the remaining winning case
March 2, 2016 at 19:59
I don’t understand your point. Cases at NVC might never interview, or they might…
March 2, 2016 at 20:03
hi sir brit, i wont to ask you a question about my situation. my cn is 2016AF20XXX I’m current . why my status in ceac is “in transit ” i receive my interview letter since 22. thank you
March 2, 2016 at 20:42
The in transit status simply means the embassy have not updated CEAC. It doesn’t mean anything bad, or anything more than that.
March 2, 2016 at 20:17
so sorry mr, birtsimon Because of my language factor now iget it from your post (How to use Google sheets)
thanks so much
March 2, 2016 at 20:43
March 2, 2016 at 20:19
yesterday i did my interview at the embassy. they were very kind with me. they tell me your visa is approved but you must bring four DHL airway bill because i bring only one with me (family of four member) and they tell me to bring Tel. no of the person that you know in USA. they also provide me the information of how i paid for my green card online. But when I checked CEA data there is administrative process. is this a big problem?
March 2, 2016 at 20:42
No, it is very common to see AP after an interview – and in about 2 to 3 days that changes to issued.
March 3, 2016 at 05:07
Bonjour uncle simon,
Based on the information above you say that the CEAC DATA have been updated so why my CN still remaining always at NVC…because after updated the ceac my CN must be in TRANSIT…please what is your advice about that
March 3, 2016 at 05:49
You are incorrect. Your number is still not current (as I have told you before), so you case shows at NVC.
March 3, 2016 at 06:03
I’m sorry uncle,I’m scared now what do u mean when u said I’m incorrect…so anythings goes wrong?…please uncle tell me
March 3, 2016 at 06:07
And when my CN will be in transit?
March 3, 2016 at 06:16
Toward the end of this month most likely…
March 3, 2016 at 11:10
my qustion is if i miss any document at the interviwe what will happen ? it will damage my visa process?
March 3, 2016 at 14:35
If you are missing a required document you would normally be delayed until you provide the document.
March 3, 2016 at 12:01
Can Nepal hit limit ? that is 3500.sir.
March 3, 2016 at 14:33
Almost certainly, yes.
March 3, 2016 at 13:50
Asia 67xx will be in May Right? As per the predictions and Quota Available Pace Right?
March 3, 2016 at 14:15
Hopefully yes. We will see the VB in a few days and then be sure.
March 3, 2016 at 15:39
Thanks Simon <3
March 3, 2016 at 15:40
But When Can we expect the actual bulletin for May?
March 3, 2016 at 16:02
The same time as every month – around the 10th +/- a couple of days.
March 3, 2016 at 16:15
I’m proud of u…be blessed and I wish that one day will take our dinner together,included sarah ur daughter
March 3, 2016 at 16:06
Thanks Simon! <3
March 3, 2016 at 17:05
hi mr birtsimon have nice day and u family I have a question this year the number of the selected abiut 84xxx compared to the previous year, about 125 there is big difference about 41 What do you think the positive and negative impact on the pace of progress visa for the next five months
March 3, 2016 at 20:30
Less people will be disappointed this year.
March 3, 2016 at 18:52
hi Bitrsimon my CN is 2016AF37*** when they send me a second letter or arrange my interview
March 3, 2016 at 20:29
Your interview will probably be in July, possibly June. You get the 2NL about 6 weeks before the interview.
March 3, 2016 at 21:24
We thank your great efforts with us mr birtsimons you are right Less people will be disappointed this year althought those people 84xxx don’t give up! may be they will have seen the light …
March 3, 2016 at 21:52
This year the highest number assigned is under 56000
March 3, 2016 at 21:41
HI BRITSIMON, MY CASE NUMBER IS 2016AF39***, WHEN DO YOU EXPECT MY INTERVIEW DATE.
March 3, 2016 at 21:51
March 3, 2016 at 22:18
Hi mr brit i just want to say thank u for everything , i finished my interview at 3pm today, my case number is AF000179** interview location addis ababa Ethiopia
March 4, 2016 at 15:00
hi britsimons so there is no case number above 56000
March 4, 2016 at 15:53
There are 4 or 5 number above that range – but they are system anomalies.
March 4, 2016 at 15:04
cus i have a friend who told he had case number 67xxxx for africa
March 4, 2016 at 15:52
That is probably a number from a previous year.
March 4, 2016 at 15:35
hi brother mr birtsimons good day to U how you can explains, the DV winner this year around 84xxx and the max case number showing in CEAC like you say highest number assigned is under 56000 Where the cases between 84xxx and 56xxx
March 4, 2016 at 15:52
There are less selectees this year. Quite simple.
March 4, 2016 at 16:08
please britsimons are they 84xxxx selectee or 56xxxx selectee and one more question is one selectee not assigned to one case number thus if 84xxxx selected then there should be case number84xxxx or i am completly wrong if yes please try and explain how case numbers are attributed thank
March 4, 2016 at 16:19
Please READ what you see and use the search feature.
The picture above clearly shows there are 45000 selectees in AF region (Published selectees). The Case numbers are higher than the selectees because there are holes between the case numbers. The reason for that is explained here:-
March 4, 2016 at 17:57
Q Sir, do you Nepal will be built with Asia to be all Asia 8000 this month, thank you
March 4, 2016 at 19:17
I don’t understand the question – please rephrase.
March 4, 2016 at 20:06
Do you think ( Nepal + Asia) equals 8,000 Per Asia
Let Asia with Nepal Visa Beltan one
March 4, 2016 at 20:57
You really are not clear at all.
March 4, 2016 at 20:12
Hi mester brit Simon I asking about my cas number A F 43 ***which time my interview probably thanks for everything
March 4, 2016 at 20:57
March 4, 2016 at 22:00
hello mr Simon.
my name in my passport is surname:Paula, middle name Linda, first name Martha, i the initial edv i entered correctly as passport and birth certificate. in my country document are established starting by the surname, middlename and first name. then am mrs Paula Linda Martha, in my ds 260 where they ask full name in native language i typed Martha Linda Paula as in my 1st ‘notification letter they say dear martha Linda Paula you have been….
now am i write of what i wrote in full name in native language? as English is not our language here and in our government name order are as follow in administrative documents surmane, middle name and first name. thx sir. i am expecting interview in May or June
March 4, 2016 at 22:10
I’m not clear on your question, but Names should be entered on the DS260 as they are shown in passport.
March 4, 2016 at 22:59
thx sir. does asking the ds260 to be unlocked more than 2 tipes will rise doubt on the mind of the CO. as i have already unlocked my ds260 once for corrections. i will be interviwed either in may or june is it late to ask for unlocking my ds260?
March 4, 2016 at 23:13
You can unlock 100 time. Not an issue.
It is fine to unlock now.
March 4, 2016 at 21:33
Sorry Is Nepal Visa Beltan special for this month will be within Asia this question
March 4, 2016 at 22:07
Ahhh, you are asking if Nepal will have its own number lower than the rest of Asia on the visa bulletin.
Probably. We will see for sure next week.
March 4, 2016 at 22:56
Simon how are my question is when I tried to track my green card status it asks me to enter reciept number but I didn’t get my reciept number could u help me please where can I find it or or how can I track it. By the it’s dv case
March 4, 2016 at 23:14
You have to wait AT LEAST 60-70 days after you paid and entered. Then wait a couple of weeks more and call USCIS.
March 4, 2016 at 23:38
Thanks mester brit Simon to answer my guestion I abrsheed this
March 5, 2016 at 02:21
Hello Mr Brit, sorry am coming back on this same topic. actually, I didn’t save or print my confirmation page when submitting the first DS-260 form but I wrote down name, date of submission and confirmation number on a piece of paper. but later re-opened to add passport number few months later and printed out the confirmation page for DS-260 form.
My question is: am I to present the initial (first) confirmation page? if yes, how then can I retrieve the page or can I just present the handwwritten version?
if a selectee has e.g 3 confirmation pages (due to unlocking), is he expected to take with him all the DS-260 form to interview or just the first, or anyone, or the last???
Awaiting your response AF20×××
March 5, 2016 at 02:52
You can review each DS260, and navigate to the last page – there you will see the DS260 confirmation number.
March 5, 2016 at 03:48
Hi brit! Is CN 682# (nepal) still risky or some improve in your previous prediction?
March 5, 2016 at 06:13
Still the same.
March 6, 2016 at 00:49
Thanks to Britsimon, we have better understanding of dv selection process. Based on data available till now and assuming other influencing variables most importantly cn density of Nepalese selectee within AS and derivative rate do not increase significantly going forward, my prediction of Nepal cut off is at 6900-7000 level at around 3350 visa limit. If KCC is willing to go beyond 3400 to max 3500 visa range, we can expect 7000-7100 cutoff. Looking forward to 6900-7100 range – less disappointment this year than 2015.
March 6, 2016 at 00:53
You may be right – BUT your upper range is actually the full number of cases – effectively current for Nepal. Considering the increase in derivative rate and the success rate in KDU – that seems unlikely that we can see current for Nepal.
March 6, 2016 at 01:03
Exactly. Rate of increase in drv rate and KCC decision on how far to take it will be biggest determinant. Still. I feel 6900 on the lower side should hold good. Thanks.
March 5, 2016 at 06:30
Dear Brit, thanks for your DV analyses. In analyses, there are 364 gaps lie within CN 7000 in AS region. Up to 12332, there are 3,896 gaps. In last year (final CEAC 2015) also there were 431 gaps within 7000 CNs. The gap has been lowered this year. The gap has been abruptly increased with increase in CN after ~8000.
1. What does the gap mean?
2. Why these gaps accelerated with higher CN?
3. As in KDU, there are 1238 cases i.e. CNs (having 2388 family members family ratio ~1.93) distributed over 5100 CN (actual number is 48++ excluding gaps). As the VB, there are 3802 selections from Nepal. Last time you mentioned all 3802 cases of Nepal distributed within 7200 CNs. What I had previously understood is 3802 selections from Nepal mean 3802 are CNs that are distributed over 12332 CNs. This does not include their family number (so I presumed 3802 cases multiply with family size of 1.93 = 7338 cases indirectly link with DV process). KCC will handle only the CNs and family number that exhausts about 3500 VISAs. Rest of the CN will be affected by cut off. Where am I wrong? If I am not wrong
4. In CEAC data calculations, until 5100, there are only 1238 CNs from Nepal has been processed what are distributed ~ 24.3 in hundred. There are 2564 cases (probably Nepal also contains gaps) are not processed yet. My question is it possible to adjust remaining 2564 cases adjust with 2100 CNs left ? I mean (7200-5100=2100). Iran may have similar number of selectee to be adjusted?
March 5, 2016 at 14:09
1. They are holes between the numbers for cases that were disqualified as part of the draw – before they were notified.
2. Iran and Nepal have so many entries that their winning rates are far more than is needed. So – KCC stop taking winners from Iran and Nepal by disqualifying cases after a certain point. Hence Iran and Nepal have all their cases concentrated in the early number ranges – and gaps increase after thoise countries stop. THat is how I know the highest Iran and Nepal case number – it is easy to see on a chart – https://britsimonsays.com/dv2016-analysis/
3. You have a lot wrong. First, the selectees include family so the 3802 include family (at a lower number than 1.93 because of marriages and births). Read the link above and the posts linked from that – it should then be more clear.
4. Again – read the links.
March 5, 2016 at 08:34
Hi brit sir Your prediction of VB for Nepal always less than the actual number that release why? Either you are failing to predict especially for Nepal and Asia Or any other reasons.
Also you told in previous post [https://britsimonsays.com/predictions-for-next-vb-and-beyond] that ==>[So we can guess that Nepal will grow at around the same pace for June interviews as May, (so June will be around 6400 to 6600) and then hit the final max in July. That final max depends on the 7% limit.]
I wanna add some things like this
1. Upcoming VB for April Interview.
2. Then April VB for May interview
3. Then May VB for June interview
4. Then June VB for July interview
5. July VB for August interview
In which number your 6400 to 6000 lies pls answer it.
March 5, 2016 at 13:57
What I wrote is perfectly clear – what don’t you understand?
March 6, 2016 at 04:25
I wanna know that Which VB includes 6000 to 66000 May or June.
March 6, 2016 at 07:56
sorry 6000 to 6600
March 5, 2016 at 11:53
so why then in europe we have 27011selected but the highest case number is 24517 where is the remaining 300selecteenormally the case numbers where to be above the number of selectees if considering the fact of hole between case numbers
March 5, 2016 at 13:54
Each case number includes derivatives (family members) so the 27011 selectees (which includes family) are on 14915 cases as shown in the table. The holes are 27011-14915.
March 6, 2016 at 07:29
Hi brit Sir As you know that Nepal VB is increasing than previous year. In previous year In March they release 4,725 and now they are releasing more than 1000 comparing to previous year.
1. It means that either they will increase final cut off or they will hold VB for Nepal like this March 5900, April also same 5900. Because Visa is emptying and 4 VB month remain. So What may be their strategy for this year.
2. My silly analysis :- May be they are thinking about spare visa from other region for rest of the month.
3. Is there any record history that they hold VB for some month e.g 2-3 month same VB.
4. If they are willing to hold VB then why they not distribute cases to interview for all month.
March 6, 2016 at 15:49
1. We have to wait and see what strategy they employ.
2. I don’t know what you mean. Nepal is limited by the 7% rule, not regional quota.
4. They decide the VB month by month, based on factors I have explained many times.
March 6, 2016 at 07:51
If 25(approx) cases are in 1 hundred in case of Nepal then above 5100 case number to 7200 cn there may be 525 cases and remaining visas are 1144 (approx) above 5100 case number according to your data. Lets say 525 cases have family member in the ratio 1.9 then it becomes 998 visas. Remaining visas 1144-998=146 . It means that Nepal case number will be cutoff above 7200.
March 6, 2016 at 15:47
During the draw itself Nepal was limited, so there are no (or almost no) cases in Nepal with numbers over 7100. All Nepalese cases are below 7100.
What you are forgetting is that some of the cases still showing at NVC are from Nepal (late or non submissions) and also some Nepalese cases are processed outside of Nepal. So – the actual Nepal density is close to 30/100.
March 6, 2016 at 08:45
please comment voire uniquement les resultat de pays.
March 6, 2016 at 15:37
PLease post in English and read the instructions on seeing the file for one country.
March 6, 2016 at 16:21
Morac, was asking in French how does one check the results specially for the USA embassy located in Maroc in accordance with your current post for CEAC update March 1 2016..
March 6, 2016 at 16:41
Thank you, yes I did understand but the instructions for filtering for a country are in the post above.
March 6, 2016 at 20:14
Hi.so maybe tomorow we will have the vb and maybe there will be some surprises especially for af !
March 6, 2016 at 20:42
not quite sure that we may see the publication for April Visa Bulletin on 7 th March ..
from my personal point of view based on past publications ,we can expect it around 8th March…
March 6, 2016 at 21:15
It is typically around the 10th, but can be as early as the 8th….
March 6, 2016 at 22:02
hi mr birtsimon have a nice day with your family for us Most difficult times is to wait a day before visa bulletin release … your nice predication for AF region is 28xxx to 30xxx if reached your maximum 30xxx or more can you upgrade the risky number from your last predication up to 47xxx
thanks so much
March 6, 2016 at 22:12
The speed of increases does not always mean a higher final number…
March 6, 2016 at 22:35
but it good indeks mr, birtsimon i checked your post https://britsimonsays.com/historical-visa-bulletin-numbers/ found that when the increases good final become good
March 7, 2016 at 06:01
Hi simon ,
If someone has an interview in june , when should the supporter tax clearance be obtained? For example, if they send it in april , would it be acceptable for the embassy? Thank you so much
March 7, 2016 at 06:23
Yes, get it after the 2015 tax year has been filed (which happens mid April at the latest).
March 7, 2016 at 11:01
Is it possible for KCC to proceed the African casenumbers who have their interview in Europe faster in the next Visa bulletin? Because Europe will go current.
Like my number 446XX
March 7, 2016 at 15:28
AF will go faster anyway as I have predicted. Your number should be fine.
March 7, 2016 at 11:40
Recently i have lost my passport and im having an interview on 12 April. What should i do if i could take a new one would that make a problem to me because on forms that i have written my passport number is written and if i take one then the number would be different.
March 7, 2016 at 15:28
That is all you can do – right?
March 7, 2016 at 16:11
Yes i could take a new passport, but what i am concering about is, on my ds-260 forms i have written my passport number and right now i have lost my passport number and my case has been current on embassy. Now if i take a new passport and if i take my that passport with myself on the interview day what do you think please?
March 7, 2016 at 16:23
People lose passports. It happens. The embassies know that. Relax.
March 7, 2016 at 17:16
March 7, 2016 at 17:27
When u fill a form of DV at that time my date of birth is mistakely written by 5 feb 1991 but my actual date of birth is 4 feb 1991 and I wrote/correct on ds260 and am all ready got a 2nd letter am waiting my interview is this create any problem in interview and in interview interviewee can check a ds260 of interviewer or not because to open a ds260 we have to enter a date of birth and case no. And I have to enter a mistake date of birth to open a ds260 otherwise my ds260 file cannot be opened but inside of the ds260 file I have writren correct one 4 feb 1991 and my other documents information is true .
March 7, 2016 at 17:31
At most embassies that mistake would be OK (since you corrected it in the DS260).
March 7, 2016 at 17:47
Yes I wrote my real date of birth on ds260 and simon the mistake date of birth doesn’t give any kind of problem or not in my interview/visa am getting so much tension by this reason plz reaply
March 7, 2016 at 17:29
Sorry *when I fill the form of DV * (typing mustake)
March 7, 2016 at 17:31
Sorry *when I fill the form of DV* typing mistake is happened
March 7, 2016 at 17:38
Yes I wrote my real date of birth on ds260 and simon the mistake date of birth doesn’t give any kind of problem in my interview/visa
March 7, 2016 at 17:47
I cannot say with 100% certainty. It is up to the CO.
March 7, 2016 at 17:56
How many % of chance is possible and what is the full form of CO
March 7, 2016 at 18:07
I’m not going to speculate about the percentage chance.
CO = Consular Officer.
March 7, 2016 at 18:08
How many % of chance is possible for visa simon and what is the full form of co plz reaply
March 8, 2016 at 01:22
I had my interview last week, on the 3rd. The CO told me my visa was approved. The following day I checked CEAC and it says that my visa was “Issued”.
I have checked CEAC again today and from “Issued” went to “Administrative Processing” What. The. Hell?!?
March 8, 2016 at 02:56
That’s unusual – hopefully it is just the embassy having printing problems or something like that. You could contact the embassy…
March 10, 2016 at 22:33
I picked up my passport and the infamous yellow envelope today.
On March 4 they printed a Visa, and stamped it on my passport. Then they canceled it. Then, on march 8 they printed another Visa, and I guess that’s the visa I’ll use to enter the US. I guess that’s the reason why it went from issued to AP to issued again.
I don’t understand why on earth would they do that. I’m kinda pissed because the embassy used two pages and getting a new passport from my country in the US,when the space on this one runs out, will most likely be a nightmare.
March 10, 2016 at 22:54
Focus on the good news. You got the visa.
March 8, 2016 at 03:19
I have enter the USA by Green Card lottery. So before i enter the USA i had to pay $165 for immigration fee. So Sri Lanka embassy consult us to pay it online before we enter the USA. So after that we get Pay.govTracking ID and Agency Tracking Id by email.
So how can i track my green card by these numbers. We have not get any receipt number. Online tracking web site ask receipt number. So do you know the reason or how can i track this.
March 8, 2016 at 03:23
They tell people to wait AT LEAST 60 days (I would say longer, like 70/80 days) before enquiring. Then if after that time you don’t have the GC you can call USCIS