A few days before the VB numbers were released I got “early notice” of the VB numbers and published them in this article. Many people doubted the numbers were real, partly because they were low numbers for several regions (all apart from AF). I speculated in that post about why those numbers might be so low, and as we now know, those numbers were confirmed as the official numbers. Well today I called KCC and confirmed my speculation was accurate. KCC have changed DS260 processing for this year to reduce the backlog (delays) we have seen in previous years. So – this article is to explain that further.
First – let me explain what was meant by “backlog”. Since the DS260 was introduced, people would immediately start submitting their DS260s starting the day that results were announced. Because the “you have been selected” letter says to respond quickly, it created an impression that there was some sort of race to submit the DS260. That isn’t really true – but it gave KCC a problem. Within the first couple of weeks after the announcement, a huge number of DS260s were submitted – for all winners across all regions and all case numbers. So – for illustration purposes, let’s imagine that 5,000 DS260’s were submitted in the first week, and that rate continued for the first couple of months. Let’s assume KCC could only start processing 1000 to 2000 per week. Within a few weeks a backlog of DS260s had built up – and by August there were many cases that had low case numbers, but were waiting in turn to be processed, because they submitted a few weeks after May. What happened is that those cases could not be scheduled for interview – and as a consequence, KCC had to release a larger VB number than they would have needed if all the DS260s were somehow processed.
So – the first few VBs were higher numbers and everyone was full of confidence about how fast numbers were progressing. Then, after 3 or 4 months we saw the VB pace would slow down. Some months we even saw NO increase for some regions. People panicked. I tried to explain and warn that this would happen – but nevertheless people remained confused – and saw no “logic” to the way the VB number was increasing. In fact, for a time (when I had access to the CEAC data) I was able to calculate the VB progress with remarkable accuracy. The VB was driven by how many interviews could be accommodated within a region (with KCC trying to space out processing over most of the year). One of the factors I had to calculate was how many interview slots would be taken each month by “backlog” cases – so the backlog had a very large influence on VB case number progress (pace).
Now – KCC have found a way to give priority to processing “lower” case numbers. So – if they received a small number of DS260s, they could process as the cases were received – but if they have too many cases they can choose to delay processing on high case numbers and instead give “priority” to cases at the lower end of the scale. After all – why rush to process a high case number when that case could not be interviewed until next summer anyway. Better to process the lower case numbers that could become current in the first few months of the year. This approach is very advantageous and smart. It also means that a high case number DS260 can make changes for life events (for example to add a newborn or change address), BEFORE the case has even started processing. This is a much better outcome.
Now – this does NOT mean there is any change to the basic rule of interview scheduling. To get scheduled a case must be current (lower than the VB number for the region/country) *AND* the DS260 is processed. A high case number submitted early cannot be scheduled early under the new processing method – and could not be scheduled early under the old method. However, a low case number submitted a little late won’t now have to be delayed months because of backlogs. So – case number order has become “fairer” through this new method.
I’m not sure exactly how KCC are prioritizing. There is a chance that the method has some teething problems and won’t work well in all cases to avoid backlog delays. But – this is a good change in my opinion. It is also nice to have it confirmed as the reason the VB numbers were so low.
November 1, 2021 at 22:41
Good evening. after obtaining the baccaleaureat in 2017 I was oriented in a technical and vocational school. in July 2021 I also finished my studies in this professional school but I have not yet received my diploma because the delivery of diplomas is not yet fixed. 1- is what if I put at the level of primary occupation: student. will it be a problem? 2- is what if I also put at the level of ‘ Highest Level of Education Completed ‘: high school. will it be a problem?
November 5, 2021 at 23:22
1. No
2. No
June 22, 2018 at 15:57
HEY BRIT
I want to reply for this problem. I already have an interview date but I have made a mistake on my ds260 as a diploma level computer course. But it is a certificate course. so that case will effect me on my interview date?
June 22, 2018 at 17:27
A “computer course” doesn’t affect anything one way or the other.
June 20, 2018 at 09:45
Hi I have unlock my ds260 I am awinner dv 2019 ..my case no. 2019AF00000** I change my passport .. I hv copy of my first passport can I bring orignl or copy to my interview and when did I expect my 2nl
June 20, 2018 at 14:53
Take both passports. 2NL in a few months.
June 13, 2018 at 08:16
Hello Simon,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge with everyone.
On May 15, 2018, I have been selected for DV 2019, with case number 2019AS000003XX in Japan.
I would like to delay the process as long as possible to have an interview in April 2019.
My questions:
1) Is it safe to delay D.S 260 submission in my case with small case number?
In other posts I read that people with case number EU36XX (DV2018) submit DS-260 on January 2018 and had interview in April 2018. And received the green card.
2)
Is it really safe to go with this approach? I also read some posts that I must submit DS-260 before September 2018.
3) Is there any hard-rule like that?
4) Is there a chance that number of visas issued will hit the limit and they will cut us off?
Thanks for your help.
June 13, 2018 at 14:41
1. Yes
2. That’s the same question.
3. What does that mean??
4. Not before very late in the process (September 2019)
May 25, 2018 at 08:26
Hi Brit,
yesterday as I called KCC, they told me that my case has not finished the processing. hence I shouldn’t expect being scheduled although I am current and submitted the Ds in the late may 2017, unlocked ion the 14th of seprember and resubmitted on the 17 th of september.
1 is it true that it can take all this time in processing?
2 or it is a generic answer that only means that it is not yet scheduled as the status is at NVC.
your valuable answers are appreciated
May 25, 2018 at 13:59
1. No
2. This.
June 6, 2018 at 00:15
@delphin, have KCC been specific about which stage of processing hasn’t been finished in your case. Where they referring to the DS260 form processing ?
May 25, 2018 at 07:30
Hello Simon
I understand that KCC are processing DS260 by case number order now but do you know if they start processing only when the number goes current or before that (in which case, how long before) ? Could the delay in sending the 2NLs be due to DS260 not being processed yet rather than embassy capacity ?
Thanks
May 25, 2018 at 14:00
No
December 17, 2017 at 16:13
Hi Mr Brit Simon
My case number is more than 43000 and from Africa region . as it seems the cut-offs are really scaring me and they make me wonder if there will be a chance for my case to be scheduled . if you have any assurances please share them
Thanks in advance
December 17, 2017 at 16:27
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
https://britsimonsays.com/vb-progress-explained-again/
December 17, 2017 at 07:05
Dear Simon,
When I received my selection letter I realized that my Foreign State Chargeability: SAUDI ARABIA, and my case number starts with AS, however I am Egyptian born in Egypt and my country is eligible for DV and currently I am living in Saudi Arabia since 10 years also my child’s were born in Saudi
I think that but not sure, while submitting my answer was No about claiming the eligibility based on the country I was born then I picked Saudi Arabia as the country which I am claiming the eligibility
Do your think this will disqualify my application or what ?
Thanks for your help
December 17, 2017 at 16:05
Yes it will mean certain disqualification.
November 29, 2017 at 19:36
Thank you very much for this explanation!Just to make sure that I understood that right: Does it mean in return that if I have a high case number that is slightly on risk of being scheduled at all, and I have submitted my DS260 formular lets say in november instead of May, or I have had it opened again at a later point of the year, it would NOT affect the timing of my interview? And that with the old method we have been told that if you have a high case number and you even hand it in late, that you are at risk of not being scheduled.
My Case number for example is EU33XXX. If i was to take a new job for example, starting in january, which obviously had not been entered in the original DS260 form, and I re-opened it in december, my case would not be delayed whatshowever? Is that corect?
November 29, 2017 at 21:47
Unlocking doesn’t normally cause delay.
Your case number must be current to get scheduled BUT your DS260 must also be processed.
Regarding your number, read this – https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
Or this https://britsimonsays.com/vb-progress-explained-again/
October 25, 2017 at 14:23
hi sir.
I want see my ds 260 application.but i can’t enter ds 260 site. what happen it this site?
please explain me sir.
October 3, 2017 at 10:50
mr simon
really thank you for your information that you introduce
i understand from this post that there is stress to kcc at first so it is explanation for low first VB
and if second VB is low as people see may there are many people have low case number .
but this mean after a few months the stress will reduce because all most of people have submit the DS-260 and the VB will increase after a few months
this is right that i say ?? i want your opinion please
October 3, 2017 at 13:39
Yes I have written about that. Please chill out. We are 2 months into a 12 month process. RELAX.
September 27, 2017 at 21:35
Hi, Brit. how are you? hope you’er doing well.
I Know this questions is very often here.. but according your experience.. want ask you advice…
my case number is EU 34***, and I think it’s very high. of course I shoild practice my
patience. but I am littlebit afraid that I will not get 2NL.
so my questions is:
As my CN is so high…, sheall I try to check my luck on DV-2019 as well?
or as I am winner of DV2018 I cannot sign application of DV2019?
thank you in advance Brit…
September 27, 2017 at 21:51
Anyone can enter DV2019 – no problems.
September 27, 2017 at 22:13
OK Dear Thanks. I am sure that we just worry for nothing.. and everything will be OK. just need to “wait and see” 🙂 … thanks a lot for your quick response and your answer.
September 20, 2017 at 14:36
Hi Benone!
That is pretty fast. Which region and country are you from?
September 20, 2017 at 14:41
AF Ghana
September 20, 2017 at 14:49
What about you Case number !! What was your CN ?
September 20, 2017 at 16:00
2018AF14**
September 20, 2017 at 14:25
I’m from Yemen
My case number 16××
I have not received the second letter that sets the date of the interview so far!
Although my case number is part of the September bulletin that identifies people to be interviewed in November
September 20, 2017 at 15:38
Patience.
September 20, 2017 at 11:51
i want to mail USCIS to check if my ds26o has being processed
1.should do that?
2.if i should procced please kindly give me their mailing address
September 20, 2017 at 12:51
1, No – don’t waste their time with your impatience.
September 20, 2017 at 14:23
hello brit….thanks alot…..i just recieve my 2nl…i sent ds260 on 22aug and recieve it it today jst this afternoon 20sep…
September 20, 2017 at 11:46
hello BRIT….please let me ask a question…
if i won for dv2018 by my own registration and someone also registered me without my know but didnt won with his registration will it affect me?
September 20, 2017 at 12:52
Probably.
September 20, 2017 at 14:02
he change the arangment of my name which is “BEN BRIT SIMON” to “BRIT BEN SIMON” which he didnt won but i with the good arrangement ,will it still affect me?
September 20, 2017 at 15:33
So this is from the other person who registered you without you knowing, but now you know the order of the names this person used. Right.
You know Ghana has a very high refusal rate.
September 20, 2017 at 14:20
heloo brit….thanks very much…i jst recieve my 2nl…i submitted ds260 22nd aug and recieve it today…
September 17, 2017 at 06:45
OKAY….thanks
September 16, 2017 at 23:48
hello..BRIT ,meaning i might be lucky to be scheduled for november interview right?…..i am 2018AF14** and submited my ds260 on 22nd Aug..
September 17, 2017 at 00:21
Patience.
September 15, 2017 at 18:30
mistake I meant ds 260 submitted on August 1 sorry
September 15, 2017 at 18:14
Hello Brit
Error of a letter in my father’s name
In the family information form ds 260
Ds submitted on May 1
1) Should I send a mail to kcc for
Reopening asked and corrected
2) Can he have a delay in the interview?
Come algeria case number AF 69xx
Thank you
September 15, 2017 at 18:41
1. If you want to do so – accuracy is best.
2. Probably not.
September 26, 2017 at 09:36
Mousse, can I have your personal email . Thanks
September 15, 2017 at 15:37
Hi Brit
I would like to move to a new address but when i arrived in the US about a month ago i changed my address at the airport different from the one in the DS260 where my Green Card will be delivered and i wanna moved again to another state, USCIS form is asking my old address and new
1. Should i put the one on my DS260 as my old address or i should put the one which they changed at the airport where i was staying
September 15, 2017 at 16:50
Inform USCIS of the change of address (google that). Your GC will be sent to the address you gave at the airport.
September 16, 2017 at 16:47
I’m still confused right now i don’t know which one is in the system because I got a letter about one month ago from my old address the one in the Ds260 reminding me that I should apply for my green card and I have already applied it about 2 weeks now, that why i still don’t know whether to use ds260 address or the one I gave at the airport as my old address when filling up the form to change my address to a current one
September 16, 2017 at 17:07
You are overthinking this. Just pick an address for the old address and move on.
September 15, 2017 at 14:49
Hy Brit,
Please,I am a DV2017 &DV2018 winner,I had my interview but the consular officer was unable to determine my identity due to differences in my birth date and place of birth on the second win which was unknownly registered by someone.Please, my question is can I proceed with the DV2018 with my correct details as on my first win which is my true information and identity,fill my ds260 with same details as on my ds260 in DV2017 and also present more documents to prove my identity for the DV2018 interview.Please will my identity be determined and have my Visa approved. Please,help me out on what to do.
September 15, 2017 at 15:16
I’m going to take a guess and say you are from Ghana – right? The chances of a Ghanaian being selected 2 years running is VERY VERY small. Of course, it is easier if you enter multiple times. But then you would need to create some differences like place of birth and date of birth to try (foolishly) to not have them notice. “Coincidentally”, your case has exactly those characteristics, so I would not be at all surprised if they likely suspect multiple entries. So – proceed if you wish, you know your case better than I do.
September 15, 2017 at 15:33
Hy Brit,
Please,there was no multiple entry.Please my issue is can my case be approved if I stick to my true identity which is DV2017 to proceed the 2018 win…pls
September 13, 2017 at 16:12
Hi,
Is there any new information about the eu 2nd draw? Thanks for the reply.
September 13, 2017 at 16:53
No – but if you have not been told by now to check your email – you won’t for DV2018.
September 13, 2017 at 17:29
Hi, It’s not about me. I am already selected. What i am trying to learn is whether kcc made 2nd draw for eu region or not while there are so many people worried about their CNs. Thank you for your answer.
September 7, 2017 at 10:34
Hello,
I was selected for DV2018 with a number EU 8XXX. I’m expecting my interview to be in November/December. I’d prefer it to be in Jan/Feb 2018.
The question is:
1. Is it wise to open back DS260 and wait a bit, so I would artificially delay my interview (and resubmit it in mid December ish)?
Thanks,
Arnold.
September 7, 2017 at 14:46
It would have been wiser to delay submission of your DS260. Unlocking now, probably won’t stop your interview being scheduled.
September 12, 2017 at 09:49
1. What do you mean it won’t stop my interview being scheduled?
As far as I understood, they cannot schedule the interview until my DS260 is not submitted. They have already unlocked it.
2. Or is it that I just got lucky that they haven’t managed to process my DS260 yet and hence I’m safe to re-submit a bit later, and so artificially delay my interview till Jan/Feb 2018?
Thanks,
Arnold.
September 12, 2017 at 12:54
1. meaning you can go on and unlock your DS260
2. yes
September 12, 2017 at 12:59
1. We have seen them schedule interview where a DS260 was processed but then unlocked.
2. If you unlocked before they *started* to process you might have stopped the processing.
September 6, 2017 at 00:52
Hi Simon, Thank you for your answer. I read your every post many times after the results. EU selectee numbers are close between dv 15 and 18, also total selectee numbers, i know many people didn’t get interview chance in dv15 from the forum sites. So are you sure about this 2nd draw, could you corroborate it very well. And the aim of asking the highest cns is to understand my confusion, in dv15 i saw the many people having CN up to 45k on the forum site but i didn’t saw any cn above 40k for dv18. So i am wondering, 40k is the highest cn for eu region because of the smaller holes percentage or higly derivates rate. Can this supposition be true. If it is true, there will be less visa for high cns and the selectees having the higher cn than 37k you defined will have no chance.
September 6, 2017 at 01:59
Make sure you click reply on answers to keep conversations together.
As for the EU 2nd draw – as I said – it is not corroborated yet. As for the rest of the comments – we don’t have the data to speculate – so wait and see.
September 5, 2017 at 22:32
Hi Simon, Could you learn the CN range of new selected people? And what was the highest CN you heard before this small draw.
September 5, 2017 at 23:29
We don’t have the exact highest number – but you can read my thoughts on that here: https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
A second draw starts from the end of the first draw – in other words, 2nd draw people get the highest numbers – so the selection comes with instant stress.
September 5, 2017 at 17:12
hi Mr Simon, thanks a lot for your work may god bless you.
excuse my English, i’m french people.
could you say me if there will be a second draw for DV2018 like last year?
Thanks in advance.
September 5, 2017 at 17:26
There is some evidence that there has been a small additional draw for EU only. However, further draws are unlikely, and pretty much pointless given that there are already more selectees than needed.
September 4, 2017 at 11:16
Most DV 2018 winners in Morocco say that only those whose case number is under 2000 got the second letter. Nobody got the scond letter and their number is above 2000. the visa bulletin is 8500. How do you explain that Simon. Thank you so much. We appreciate your work. We are a What up group ( DV 2018) our Admin is Ayoub.
September 4, 2017 at 14:06
I don’t consider that rumor to be reliable – but in any case those cases need more time to process their DS260s.
September 3, 2017 at 18:56
Hello,
When they have changed the priorities in the DS260?
September 4, 2017 at 14:21
This is for DV2018.
August 23, 2017 at 13:32
Thnx britSim
My question
i cant have needed translator. May i go with my friend who is good at english language.
Let me the solution of my problem.
August 23, 2017 at 13:53
The embassy will often have a translator.
August 23, 2017 at 10:30
Since your projections are so accurate and can’t use previous years data due to the new method, when do you predict cases of 6,000 for Asia would become current?
Thank you.
August 23, 2017 at 14:06
I am not predicting.
August 16, 2017 at 08:43
Hi Simon,
Would you expect this change means there is likely to be a more even amount of numbers released each month moving forward? So, for e.g. I’m in OC, the cut off was 185, do you think, (give or take) this new method is likely to see the next VB reveal circa 370 as the cut off, then 555 etc? before slowing down? I note that most draw numbers were higher across the board, so maybe increasing the numbers in a more static, methodical way means the holes theory would not apply moving forward?
Another question, forgive me if this is somewhere else on your website, are you able to travel to the US on either the VWP or B-2 Tourist visa while you are waiting for an interview or does this affect your chance of a green card?
Thanks in advance.
Nick
August 16, 2017 at 15:18
The holes theory still applies. OC has no limited countries, so the holes are uniformly distributed throughout the whole range. OC holes are probably around 7%.
Yes, we are likely to see progression like this or slower. The number won’t get much higher than 1400 to 1500 – so there is only about 1300 left in 11 months – so the progression doesn’t even need to be as high as 185/month. As late submissions come in to play, some of the earlier cases will take interview slots in each month, reducing the pace of VB progression.
Yes you can travel on VWP/B1 etc while you are waiting.
August 16, 2017 at 07:35
Hello Brit,
Thanks for guide. I really appreciate what you do. You have a post which explain safely numbers based on previous years, I think. Do you think this numbers on that post are still safely ?
thanks again
August 16, 2017 at 15:23
Yes.
August 15, 2017 at 20:15
Hello Brit. Thanks for the good works. Please I sent an unlock request to KCC and received an autoresponse. It’s been 48 hours now but I haven’t received an e-mail confirming my DS 260 has been unlocked. Should I resend an email requesting an unlock?
August 15, 2017 at 21:27
No – you should exercise some patience.
August 15, 2017 at 21:31
Thank you.
August 15, 2017 at 12:11
Hi Brit!
So in this case there will be very low chance for cases with high case number to get an interview or impossible?
How do you interpret the increase in pace? my CN is EU31K and i am really concerned about it so much that i wont even get an chance for interview.
August 15, 2017 at 13:37
This doesn’t change anything for high case numbers.
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-selectee-numbers-published/
August 15, 2017 at 12:10
Hey
I am in the USA and when I submitted my ds260 I put address but now I changed my address. Do I need to send email to KCC ask them to reopen my application? Or it just enough to tell them about my new address in the interview next year when my number is current to send me green card to the new address. Thank you.
August 15, 2017 at 13:39
Are you doing adjustment of status? If so you can insert the new address on the I-485 – so no need to change. If you are doing CP – change it before you are current.
August 14, 2017 at 18:26
Hello Brit, is there any way to see the original photo submitted on the DV entry form ????
August 14, 2017 at 18:49
No
August 14, 2017 at 17:56
Lesson Learned
-submitted ds260 on may 8
-requested to be opened on June 8 and re-submitted on June 11
-requested to be opened on July 2 and re-submitted on July 4
am from Ethiopia and case number AF20xx
August 19, 2017 at 04:16
Hi Maz .. i’m also from Ethiopia Dv 2018 winner..so can i get ur email please so that we can share experiance…i didn’t recive the 2NL still now
August 14, 2017 at 17:48
today received 2NL and scheduled for oct 4
August 14, 2017 at 13:09
Hi simon, do you know how time it takes KCC to procced a case? I heard it takes around 5 months, is it true?
August 14, 2017 at 13:58
READ the article!
August 15, 2017 at 10:03
Does that mean for low cn doesnt matter if they didnt submit ds260 on may?
August 15, 2017 at 14:22
It means they may not be delayed in the way they would have been in previous years.
August 14, 2017 at 02:41
Greeting Brit, Clearity please. I earned my degree in Business and Public Administration, BBA. Should I place Business Administration as my primary occupation or Business on the DS-260 form? Also, in unlocking your DS-260 form, will it change your confirmation # and delay your chance of interview schedule upon re-submitting?
August 14, 2017 at 04:12
Your primary occupation is what you do for a living. If you are still a student then your occupation is “student”.
Unlocking doesn’t normally cause delay. The confirmation number may be changed – but that is irrelevant. It is not your case number.
August 13, 2017 at 16:43
During the DV application if a photo has been accepted, is there any possibility that the system reject your photo after you got the confirmation number?
August 13, 2017 at 18:12
Yes. The system rejects cases (and those people get “not selected”), but then a CO can also reject a case if the photo is invalid.
October 29, 2017 at 18:09
Can you be booked for the interview if your photos are not valid?
October 29, 2017 at 18:12
Yes
August 13, 2017 at 03:47
mohamed hassan abdullahi waxad iga helikartaa
[email protected]
August 13, 2017 at 02:51
helo xasan
i am also somali and i am in somalia ,i am dv2018 winner ,can i get your phone number?
August 12, 2017 at 23:58
My ds260 may need more time to be processed, although my cn is low.Due to what you kindly explained is it possible my interview will come soon. Best of regards to you and your daughter
August 13, 2017 at 15:03
I can’t predict – wait and see.