Over the last few months we have all become aware of the DS260 backlog and the consequences for the DV process this year.
The consequences have been twofold.
1. The late processing of cases meant that many of the interview slots have been taken each month by cases that were current in previous months but had been waiting for their DS260s completing. This factor was keeping VB progress low each month.
2. There was a chance that some people submitting their DS260 very late could have found they were unable to have their forms processed in time to get an interview at all this year. I explained this in a previous post here. This factor was giving hope to some higher case numbers since some people would have been caught out by the processing time.
I had always assumed/hoped that processing times would reduce as KCC dealt with the higher volumes of DS260 submissions earlier in the year. Month by month I was feeling like we were about to turn that corner – but it never happened. Until now.
I can finally report, with confidence, that the DS260 backlog is reducing. I am aware of a number of cases that have completed processing , several submitted as recently as January. So – the next 2NLs will include many cases in November, December and even January. IF that has broken the back of the DS260 backlog, those cases will soon start being less of a drag on the month interview allocations, and it might even be enough to increase my estimates in the next VB (as explained in this post), but I suspect that it will help us more for July interview rather than June.
So – the clearing of the backlog in relation to point 2 above is good news for anyone that submitted their DS260 in February and March – and even reduces the chance of people being unable to process their cases because of timing out. But – at least we will finally be able to see some better progression on the VB up to the CNs made possible by the response rate. Talking of the response rate – we should also see that response rate fully mature over the next 2 VBs – so we will by late May be able to predict the final response rates which is key to understanding the final cutoff.
DS260 backlog update
April 6, 2015 at 18:06
Thank you for your usual help and that sounds good and gives hope for higher CN
But want to make sure i understand clearly does that mean that we can expect jump after tge next VB
But still your prediction the same for Egypt cit off number 27500 /28000
Thank you again
April 6, 2015 at 18:22
Egypt is a separate case Nina – the cutoff for Egypt depends on how many cases respond and can get approved before Egypt hit the 7% limit. So – do nopt try to relate these comments to Egypt – and yes the final range for Egypt is still in the 27/5 to 28.5 range.
For AF we may see better increases, although AF seems to have had a lot of late submissions compared to other regions.
April 6, 2015 at 18:41
Thank you for you kindly reply really appreciate it God bless you
April 13, 2015 at 22:46
Do you think 267xx for Egypt will be next bulletin of july or the one after it in august?
April 14, 2015 at 00:59
April 6, 2015 at 18:13
Thank you ,thank you ,thank you BritSimon ..
I always check my email for new posts notifications .. and this post kind of gave me hope more than the comments on previous posts
Again ,after these analysis ,what is your estimation for for AS111xx ?!
April 6, 2015 at 18:23
AS111XX still has an excellent chance – again Iranian AP is the key.
April 6, 2015 at 18:44
Thanks brit 😎
Do you think someone who submitted his forms this week, has a chance of processing forms and an interview schedule ?
April 6, 2015 at 19:06
Yes. They have time and might be interviewed in August or if not, then certainly by September.
April 6, 2015 at 20:00
I see. Thanks !!
April 6, 2015 at 18:58
thanks in advance mr. BritSimon,I am from AF and my case number in about 80000 is there is a chance for interview.
April 6, 2015 at 19:06
A small chance only….
April 6, 2015 at 19:37
Mr brist my question will be ever if AF has chance to show curent in the end of the processus?
April 6, 2015 at 20:02
I don’t think that is possible.
April 6, 2015 at 19:56
Thanks Mr Simon
Pleas what about AF875**
April 6, 2015 at 20:03
That number is very unlikely to be current.
April 6, 2015 at 20:14
How about EU360XX?
April 6, 2015 at 20:17
April 6, 2015 at 20:33
thanks Mr Simon for everything, what do you think about AF658XX is there any chance to be current
April 6, 2015 at 20:50
April 6, 2015 at 21:15
like a good or a poor chance
April 6, 2015 at 21:45
April 6, 2015 at 20:34
Why do you think that the jump in VP numbers will be in July rather than June especially that the considerable portion of the backlog is cleared and issued visa number still small!!?
April 6, 2015 at 20:52
Because I think there will still be a majority of the interview slots going to the late submission cases – if that is not correct, then yes – we could see a bigger jump in the next VB for June interviews.
April 6, 2015 at 21:49
Thank you so much Mr Simon for your excellent analysis, as usual. However, I wanted to ask you when and if I can expect an interview for CN 108$$ in Asia. I’ve been reading that AP for Iran is clearing faster and I’m fearing this might eliminate my chances.
thank you so much, sir.
April 6, 2015 at 21:56
Yes there are reports that Iran is clearing AP faster. If Iran took 3000+ visas it would be a big impact for Asia as a whole. However, it is too soon to be sure about the report, and so far the CEAC data does not show a big change in numbers. So – it would be best to wait a month or so to see if the rumor is correct – and even then you will have to wait to see your fate.
April 7, 2015 at 04:24
what will be final cutoff for asia especially nepal ?is there still any hope for the case no 79**.if yes when they will be receiving 2NL?
April 7, 2015 at 14:50
There is a chance for that number and if it goes current you will get your 2NL in June for an interview in August.
April 7, 2015 at 05:39
With these good news, I am optimistic that VB for June will jump to higher number for AF region. Hopeful the cut off will be around 40,000. And Egpty and Ethopia there will be a small increase on cut off. What is your say Brit..
April 7, 2015 at 14:51
I don’t think so. I think the backlog will still be the majority of AF interviews in June – and then decrease after June.
April 7, 2015 at 05:40
How about SA1800
April 7, 2015 at 14:52
Hard to say at the moment due to the political situation.
April 7, 2015 at 06:30
Hello Brit ,how are you today. Just wanted to say good morning
April 7, 2015 at 14:52
April 7, 2015 at 06:38
That means if for example AF1 submits their ds 260 today it will be scheduled for interview in September, giving them no advantage over the rest of course assuming that the ds 260 processing will take 3 – 4 months to process. What I am deriving at is the fact that if the backlog has cleared will it now be on first come basis at least for the cases that are already current.
April 7, 2015 at 14:54
The backlog has so far taken most of the interview slots each month – but there have not been enough to cause there to be NO VB progress (unless that was the issue for SA last month). So – once the cases are processed and are current, they get an interview in the next batch.
April 7, 2015 at 07:47
How About EU429XX
April 7, 2015 at 14:56
Risky number, can only wait and see…
April 7, 2015 at 18:34
April 7, 2015 at 08:16
Thanks so much britsimon for your efforts and time to help us with all this information…i am grateful
April 7, 2015 at 15:01
April 7, 2015 at 09:16
Hello Simon thinks you CN AF38XXX. To what month the interview to you? CN is safe? with that slow her fears !
April 7, 2015 at 15:02
Safe number, probably July interview.
April 7, 2015 at 09:16
Hello Simon what about AF 78500
April 7, 2015 at 15:03
That is a risky number – all you can do is wait and hope the response rate is low.
April 7, 2015 at 12:16
Thanks a lot for your hard work and useful data
so Egy/AF303** have NO chance
April 7, 2015 at 15:04
It is hard to say NO chance because I am predicting things that have not happened yet – but it is certainly risky….
April 7, 2015 at 13:58
Dear Brit, I hope the weekend went well and want to thank you for the update.
1) I want to know following this up day if we see the great NC-AF61000 AF62000 who have sent their forms rather (19 May) can always hoped to receive our second letter in July or rather.
please i need your answer
Thanks in advance
April 7, 2015 at 15:05
Those numbers are in a safe range – so yes – 2NL in July most likely for September interview.
April 7, 2015 at 14:20
hello brit we need you please comment. good morning
April 7, 2015 at 15:05
Good morning AGAIN!
April 7, 2015 at 15:34
waoh so happy to hear from you
can i have your email
April 7, 2015 at 15:56
everyone has it on this site – [email protected]
April 7, 2015 at 15:35
please donot say no
April 7, 2015 at 15:48
Hi Brit, when will AF52xxx get the 2NL?
April 7, 2015 at 15:57
Possibly June or perhaps July – so either an August or September interview.
April 7, 2015 at 16:04
thanks so much
April 7, 2015 at 16:19
i have sent you a mail
April 7, 2015 at 17:57
What is the final cutoff number for Nepal? My case number is AS 785# any chance to get 2nd letter.if yes then when it will be my interview.thank you.
April 7, 2015 at 23:05
We don’t know the exact cutoff yet – no one does. Your number has a good chance and the interview would be ion August.
April 7, 2015 at 19:02
AS7*** (beflow 7100), would that be for July or August, you think?
April 7, 2015 at 23:06
JUly or August yes – most likely August.
April 7, 2015 at 19:10
Omitting Ethiopia from the table after getting the limit visas does that has positive or negative impact on Africa VB?
April 7, 2015 at 22:06
Ethiopia will not hit the limit because their response/success rate is too low.
April 7, 2015 at 19:20
I faced a very strange case, hopefully your knowledge can help me .
My wife and I went for our DV interview at US consulate Montreal on 2nd April 2015. Officer told us that you are approved and we will issue you a visa, They told us you will get your passports and visa in two weeks by post.
At the same they we received an email form consulte subjected as Final infos for your visas processing asked us about our intended date and port of entry to US. It seems a little strange for us but we gave them an estimated date and they confirmed reception of the email. but at the end of the email that they replied us mentioned that our cases are currently under ADMINISTRATIVE PROCESSING! I also checked CEAC website and it is showing AP as well.
I am sure that officer told us that we are approved. So is it a normal thing that they put us on AP just for few days of printing visas? It seems something is wrong and it make me nervous as I already arrange everything to move at the end of April. Do you think we will receive our visas in normal two weeks that they said or it is going to be more?
Your help is really appreciated
April 7, 2015 at 22:10
yes a lot of people see the status as AP for a day or two then issued…
April 7, 2015 at 23:11
Thanks Brit, It was making me nervous as I am Iranian and you know normally Iranians have to wait a long time on AP.
Do you know what was that email for? Why they asked us about our flight and intended date and port of entry? I mean have you ever heard about such a thing?
April 8, 2015 at 05:27
They sometimes do things like that. You can’t read too much from it…
April 8, 2015 at 12:40
Thanks a lot Brit
April 7, 2015 at 23:08
hey Brit , I really want to thank you a lot for your effort and i have a question but it’s more like a case than a question , I submitted my DS260 last may but I reopened it twice to correct some information and I have to change my passport information now because i updated it , which means i have to open it again
do you think if i opened it now that will delay my interview ?? or i just wait to change the information during the interview ??
and do you think that whole situation will make my case under processing or AP as you call it ??
thank you Brit
April 8, 2015 at 05:26
Whether it delays you or not depends when you make the final change and when your case number will be current.
April 8, 2015 at 12:43
my case number is AS90XX so should i change the information now or wait till the interview ??
April 8, 2015 at 16:55
Now – you have plenty of time.
April 8, 2015 at 06:52
Will i get interviewed? AS13,3XX. Around the Same final cut off as last year.
April 8, 2015 at 16:33
That is a risky number. Your chances depend on Iran suffering slow AP processing as happened in DV2014. Right now there are some reports that AP for Iranian cases are a little faster than last year – and that would be a negative from your point of view – but we have to wait a couple more months to be sure….
April 8, 2015 at 08:35
Great thanks for your efforts Mr BritSimonw
what about 70XXX
April 8, 2015 at 16:35
That number still has some chance – it is not possible to be certain one way or another…
April 8, 2015 at 09:31
The world wide will go current at the end of this processus i trust at 90%
April 8, 2015 at 16:42
That defies logic and simple math – but you are entitled to hope for that – good luck.
April 8, 2015 at 09:36
Meaning this dv isnt far alone of dv2012,,,,
April 8, 2015 at 16:42
DV2012 was Very different.
April 8, 2015 at 12:26
Hello Brit! This is a post in a DV forum in facebook. I liked to share it with you so as to find some answer. Thank you
“Greetings Everyone. My question to Britsimon:- As
per my knowledge, Nepal in 2014 grabbed 3437
Visas and Iran on the other hand 2326 with
Nepalese selectee being 6082 and Iranian selectee
6027 and it is clear that Nepal nearly took 7% of
the visas. With this, I would like to know, does the
faster resolve of AP cases of Iran and if it somehow
manages to grab around 2800-3200 visas, would
that mean Nepal would or might get lesser visas
than 2014. Would that mean there would be
probable reduction in visas to Nepal ?? What do
you reckon, will Nepal be getting 3200+ visas this
year ?? Hope to hear from you soon.”
April 8, 2015 at 16:54
I have replied on FB – here is my response:-
THe DV2014 numbers are slightly incorrect – Nepal took 3504 and Iran 2386. Nepal did reach the limit – although that was achieved under a VB limit of 9500 and in DV2014 Nepal had cases up to around 11XXX. So – some of those Nepalese selectees never went current. All Iranian cases went current BUT slow AP processing resulted in a HUGE number of Iranian AP cases that did not complete in time – and that allowed the AS number to reach the 13350 final level.
So, to your question. No, if Iran takes more visas this year because of faster AP processing it will not affect Nepal at all. However, it will lower the AS final number and reduce available visas for “Rest of “Asia”.
We are started to hear that Iran AP cases are clearing faster – however, it will be some weeks before I can quantify that with cases that entered AP in January (since I did not have CEAC data prior to January 1). Can Iran take ~3000 – I REALLY don’t know – but that is the big question for Asia…
April 8, 2015 at 12:31
Hi Mr.Brit, I really want to thank you a lot for your effort. I want to ask you if AS7710 will be safe and when do you expect will be the interview?
April 8, 2015 at 16:55
Yes safe – August interview.
April 8, 2015 at 18:27
Mr Brit…what do you think of AS11186?
Is it risky based on your anlysis?
April 8, 2015 at 19:52
Somewhat risky – but has a good chance….
April 8, 2015 at 19:45
Hello sir simon for someone who was mistaken about his level of study during the initial registration it bac + 2 instead of 3’s degree, however he bac as diploma and the ds corigé 260, there have a concern at this level?
April 8, 2015 at 20:16
Is there number limit for issued visa every month ?
April 8, 2015 at 21:38
Not a “limit” as such, but globally they will be trying to hit a “pace” of around 5000 visas issued per month.
April 8, 2015 at 21:56
my number of AS12300?
i read all your posts, even in other message boards, and you said that recently that numbers of 12500 to 13000 should be ok
what do you think now? and just in your estimation, the Iranians are they going to progress their APs quickly?
What are the factors that influence the speed of their APs anyway, im just wondering? or is it just a crapshoot, from month to month?
if you had to take a guess now, what would you say?
thanks a lot
April 8, 2015 at 22:05
Good question. Honestly – I don’t know what will happen in the Iranian AP scenario. 12500 to 13000 relies on Iranian AP going slow, but one person has told me that Iranian AP is going faster. I cannot yet confirm that statement, so until I can – I have to hedge my bets.
April 8, 2015 at 22:32
I actually read that post as well in the other message board………….he said that all the APs from october, november dec onwards has just finished……….which means it was possible that the AP took 4 to 5 months to resolve…(assuming i am somebody that got AP in oct, or nov)
….i am not an expert but it would seem to me that no matter how slow the Iranians are…………they still have resolve at some point and perhaps the guy that posted that comment jumped the gun a little bit……..taking some AP cases resolving that started from way back as a sign that suddenly the APs will resolve in a month? he said something like that i remember? and he was comparing 2012 but as i understand it, past years patterns are not really relevant to this year.
but I hope that the backlog resolving will move the VBs along quicker and ultimately help my cause as well?
and the Nepal factor will cause a big jump soon as they’re done right? even bigger than last year? because it’s more dense? so possibly 4000?
im keeping my fingers crossed 🙂
Thanks for your expertise
April 9, 2015 at 09:22
There’s been a lot of AP approvals for Iranians in past few days. But this doesn’t mean it’s going quite fast. There are still many Iranians who did their interview in October or November n still waiting to be cleared. I guess it’s little better than last year but not by much.
April 9, 2015 at 13:55
As I have said, I am waiting to confirm this myself…
April 8, 2015 at 22:54
Hello Simon and thanks for the update! I see a lot of people asking about Iranian APs and they are right especially for us, high CNs. I want to ask you what is the max number of Iranian visas that will still keep AS11*** safe? Around 2500-2700 maybe?
April 9, 2015 at 01:19
Yes – very perceptive question. There is too much guessing going on to be totally sure – but yeah 11XXX (which really means up to 11999) could probably tolerate 2500, perhaps 2700. Above 2700 – 11XXX would start to get nervous…
April 9, 2015 at 09:40
So can we assume that CNs up to 10999 would be somewhat ok with close to 3000 Iranian visas?!
April 9, 2015 at 13:58
Sort of. Because of the holes, approval rates etc. a 300 reduction in visas available for ROA means around 1000 case numbers.
April 9, 2015 at 05:31
As85xx form Nepal it is safe
April 9, 2015 at 13:51
Not safe, somewhat risky.
April 9, 2015 at 08:03
my casenumber 33xxx can ı be current this may VB? what do you think? thanks..
April 9, 2015 at 08:04
eu33xxx sorry ı forgot to write…
April 9, 2015 at 13:54
Ah, ok…. Then possible, we shall see today or tomorrow.
April 9, 2015 at 13:53
You don’t mention AF or EU, but it is likely for AF and possible for EU.
April 9, 2015 at 13:33
I am going home tonight from work hoping that God willing when I report back tomorrow morning, I will find AF at 40XXX (May bulletin)
April 9, 2015 at 16:54
What about AF349** when can it be current
April 9, 2015 at 17:03
Maybe in the next Visa Bulletin (June interview) or if not, then a month later.
April 9, 2015 at 20:15
Thanks Brit for your help,
I asked you this before but since we have new data now, when can you expect the first big Jump(let’s say something around 10k), could be this upcoming VB or maybe the one in May?
April 10, 2015 at 00:06
I doubt we will see a “big” jump in the VB about to be released. Let’s wait and see the VB which should be released tomorrow – and take one step at a time.
April 10, 2015 at 10:06
hello simon, how long time it takes to process DS 260 form after reopen? some one reopen it in this month could expect 2NL(AF66000)?
April 10, 2015 at 11:19
It varies depending on what was changed on the DS260 – however since AF66XXX is not going to be scheduled until July – there is plenty of time to reopen and any changes processed before then.
April 10, 2015 at 12:39
Do you think the VB out today?
April 10, 2015 at 16:22
I hope so.
April 10, 2015 at 19:53
I don’t think it will be released by today. Might be during the next week!
April 10, 2015 at 20:48
Starting to look that way!!!