Over the last few months we have all become aware of the DS260 backlog and the consequences for the DV process this year.
The consequences have been twofold.
1. The late processing of cases meant that many of the interview slots have been taken each month by cases that were current in previous months but had been waiting for their DS260s completing. This factor was keeping VB progress low each month.
2. There was a chance that some people submitting their DS260 very late could have found they were unable to have their forms processed in time to get an interview at all this year. I explained this in a previous post here. This factor was giving hope to some higher case numbers since some people would have been caught out by the processing time.
I had always assumed/hoped that processing times would reduce as KCC dealt with the higher volumes of DS260 submissions earlier in the year. Month by month I was feeling like we were about to turn that corner – but it never happened. Until now.
I can finally report, with confidence, that the DS260 backlog is reducing. I am aware of a number of cases that have completed processing , several submitted as recently as January. So – the next 2NLs will include many cases in November, December and even January. IF that has broken the back of the DS260 backlog, those cases will soon start being less of a drag on the month interview allocations, and it might even be enough to increase my estimates in the next VB (as explained in this post), but I suspect that it will help us more for July interview rather than June.
So – the clearing of the backlog in relation to point 2 above is good news for anyone that submitted their DS260 in February and March – and even reduces the chance of people being unable to process their cases because of timing out. But – at least we will finally be able to see some better progression on the VB up to the CNs made possible by the response rate. Talking of the response rate – we should also see that response rate fully mature over the next 2 VBs – so we will by late May be able to predict the final response rates which is key to understanding the final cutoff.
DS260 backlog update
April 10, 2015 at 15:58
I can’t understand that the average visa issued from kdu is 500 out off 1000.according to this Nepal will reach up to 7000. So how is it possible of mine ie 785#. Do u think it reaches up to my numbers……..
April 10, 2015 at 16:31
The average ISSUED number is not that high. The April 1 file shows issued cases up to 4300 and there were 1892 visas issued in Nepal. That is 440 per 1000 – and at that level the cutoff would come at 7950. Of course, there will probably be some more visas issued in the first 4300 cases, so it is going to be a close call for you….
April 10, 2015 at 17:51
Do you think visa issued from KDU are only Nepalies selectees ? If not then how many visa are for others country……..
April 10, 2015 at 18:26
That is the only assumption we can make. In reality, Nepalese selectees will interview elsewhere, people from other countries will interview in KDU and do on. So – we cannot be “precise” about when the cutoff will happen – and even KCC will be predicting the cutoff since they will set the final numbers earlier than the year end.
April 11, 2015 at 02:23
What about the case 809* from nepal?? Is there still ny hope ??
April 11, 2015 at 16:26
We can’t be sure – but it is certainly in the risky range…
April 11, 2015 at 09:54
No Visa Bulletin yesterday 🙁
Is it possible they release the new one during the week end or do we have to wait for next week?
If yes which day will be your guess?
I’m EU318XX so I’m very excited that I could become current! What do you think?!
Keep the good work 😉
April 11, 2015 at 16:27
I think they will release on Monday.
Your number has a good chance of being current – fingers crossed for you!
April 11, 2015 at 17:06
You think there is any chance AS67XX will be current in June? less than 6710.
April 11, 2015 at 18:25
If you mean for June interviews (i.e. the VB that is about to come out) then no – no chance. Good chance for a July interview though…
April 11, 2015 at 17:07
As 809# from Nepal is in risky range…. That means my number ie 785# is also in risk…. What do you think simon sir…..
April 11, 2015 at 18:27
Well the cutoff will fall somewhere around those numbers so both numbers are in risk, both could be lucky, one might go through, the other not. It is not possible to be precise about it, because there are still 4 VBs left….
April 12, 2015 at 15:18
Brit,one quick question….a friend of mine his wife is 7month old pregnancy,and their interview is on May. will this situation will cause them to be refused on visa.his wife is a principal applicant. please what is your say
April 12, 2015 at 15:48
No, America allows babies!! 😉
There are procedures for a birth before and after the interview. Tell them to ask the CO Exactly what they should do…
April 13, 2015 at 07:08
@britismon wen is the next visa bulletin coming out this week? Man am so nervous
April 13, 2015 at 07:12
This week,mostly today,moday or tommorow,tuesday
April 13, 2015 at 09:44
Hopefully it will be released by today..!!
We have been waiting for long time.. nervously
April 13, 2015 at 19:16
We are all waiting!!!
April 13, 2015 at 10:14
You can’t imagine how nervous IV been since results showed I won,n I’m even more anxious bout the visa bulletins
April 13, 2015 at 19:47
Do you read much into the lateness of this months VB? Ive never seen as late as the 13th (now 14th cause it wont be today). Or simply an admin thing in the KCC?
April 13, 2015 at 20:06
It is out now
April 14, 2015 at 12:02
Hi Brit, when will AF462xx get the interview date?
April 14, 2015 at 20:15
Interview in July or August.
April 14, 2015 at 14:59
Thanks @Britsimon, you have once again eased my “suffering” 🙂
Really hoping to become current in July, with CN AF38xxx, but definitely looking forward to your analysis and predictions in the days to come.
All the best to you!
April 14, 2015 at 20:02
You will be current next month.
April 16, 2015 at 10:47
what chance for AF73XXX
April 16, 2015 at 14:10
Very small. Read this https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
April 16, 2015 at 11:00
Mr britsimon wht is ur opinion aboute the CN 73000 it has a chance for take the interview ??
April 16, 2015 at 14:12
Read this https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
April 18, 2015 at 10:31
Thanks Brit for the good work
May 1, 2015 at 23:22
Mr Simon , what do you think about AF669XX is there any chance to be current ??
May 2, 2015 at 00:19
There is some chance yes – but you will have a nervous wait. Best of luck!
May 2, 2015 at 10:40
Hhh thank you for your help and you are good maen
May 4, 2015 at 11:57
I submitted my forms late (first week of February), case number is OC10XX, so case number is current now. Spoke to KCC today who said check in two weeks to see if an interview has been scheduled for June. Do you think it’s realistic I’ll get an interview or are there still huge processing delays?
May 4, 2015 at 16:16
It is doubtful (almost impossible) that you will get a June interview. The 2NLs for June already went out. You will be in July.
May 10, 2015 at 17:32
Hello Mr. Britsimon
I am from asia . my CN 2015AS16xxx. Cambodia, So can I hope interview ?
May 10, 2015 at 19:31
I don’t think the numbers will go that high… I’m sorry. 🙁
June 8, 2015 at 10:43
Hello, just a question about the processing time of ds260…………you mentioned in another post, i read it but i can’t find where you said it anymore
you said that the original submission is the most important for processing time, and later corrections mean less………….i was just wondering if you could elaborate on that a little bit for me
and also, iim thinking of unlocking my form i know you mentioned that some changes have no processing time and others take longer
can you tell me which changes cause long processing times and which ones are done pretty much right away?
thanks a lot
June 8, 2015 at 13:55
If you think about it, the answer is obvious. What concerns them is background checks and security. So changing the name of your elementary school for instance is not important whilst revealing a 6 month holiday in Iraq would be more likely to cause additional checks.
January 28, 2016 at 03:10
How about As 7400 from afghanistan
January 28, 2016 at 03:32
Wait and see.